XRP Poised for Q1 Breakout — RSI Trigger Could Ignite Run Toward $10

XRP is quietly coiling on the weekly chart, and one chartist says the next big clue will come from momentum — with a breakout likely “sometime in Q1” that could kick off a run toward $10. What the chart shows - Chart: Maelius (@MaeliusCrypto) posted a weekly XRP/USD view (Bitstamp) with the 50‑week EMA overlaid. - Recent regime change: A sharp vertical leg lifted XRP from a long base into a higher trading band, after which price has spent several weeks consolidating inside a clearly defined range. - Range boundaries: the top lines up with the old 2018 spike high near $3.33; the bottom sits just above $1.60. At the time of Maelius’ weekly close screenshot XRP was ~ $2.12; at press time it traded at $2.37. Price currently sits just beneath the 50‑week EMA — the immediate pivot Maelius is watching. Why momentum matters - Maelius points to the weekly RSI, which has a descending trendline capping recent peaks. He calls that RSI trendline the timing trigger: “RSI breaks out sometime in Q1. Price goes higher.” - In his view, momentum needs to break its compression before price can reaccelerate. A breakout in RSI would be the confirmation signal that wave structure and price may follow higher. Elliott-wave context - Maelius labels the current chop as a corrective wave 4 following an impulsive advance — i.e., a pause, not a trend reversal. His conservative count assumes “only 1W left,” suggesting a relatively tight window to resolve the consolidation and begin wave 5 if momentum lines up. - He also places the present wave 4 inside a larger-degree wave III, meaning the next wave 5 would be another leg up within a longer bullish sequence rather than a cycle-ending top. Asked whether $10 would be a quarterly “max,” he answered: “Sometime in Q1 we should get a breakout, not necessarily a top. Next wave should be towards 10$.” Historical comparison - Maelius compares the current price pattern to 2017’s two‑leg rally: an initial explosive move off a base, a long mid‑cycle consolidation, then a second leg higher. He notes differences in scale but similarity in shape: - 2017: an early huge spike (~7,400% in ~3 months), a consolidation, then a second surge (~1,500%). - Today: a first strong leg from roughly Nov 2024–Jan 2025 (~+500%), followed by a roughly year‑long consolidation into Jan 2026. The next leg, if it arrives, could be shallower than the first but still meaningful. Scenario guide - Bull case: RSI breaks its descending trendline in Q1, XRP reclaims the 50‑week EMA, and price reasserts toward the range high near $3.33 — potentially the first step on a path Maelius expects could ultimately target $10. - Bear case: Price fails to clear the 50‑week EMA and breaks down through the range floor (just above $1.60), leaving the wave‑4 corrective phase intact and delaying any wave‑5 advance. Bottom line Maelius’ setup is straightforward: momentum (RSI) is the timing signal, the 50‑week EMA is the immediate pivot, and the $1.60–$3.33 weekly band is the consolidation to resolve. If RSI and price break higher in Q1, Maelius sees a path toward much higher levels — but a rejection and breakdown would keep the corrective picture intact. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news