This inflation print didn’t move markets — and that’s exactly why it matters.
January’s U.S. 1-year inflation expectation came in at 4.0%, below the 4.2% forecast, suggesting inflation expectations may be rolling over after staying sticky for months .
So why no reaction?
Because equities are already in a wait-and-see regime — futures are mixed, yields are easing, and traders want confirmation from official CPI and PCE data before repricing risk .
• Base case: consolidation and rotation
• Bull case: confirmation → rate-cut narrative → risk rally
• Bear case: inflation re-accelerates → volatility spike
