📊 Analysis Firm: Bitcoin’s Next Major Rally May Hinge on One Signal from Japan
Crypto research firm Delphi Digital highlights a striking negative correlation between Bitcoin and Japan’s 10-year government bond yields — a dynamic that could shape BTC’s next big move.
According to the report, stress in Japan’s bond market is weighing on Bitcoin. However, a potential Bank of Japan intervention could flip the script.
While Bitcoin trades sideways, gold continues to climb. Normally, rising yields pressure non-yielding assets like gold. But the fact that both gold and yields are rising suggests markets are pricing in policy stress and balance-sheet risk, not economic strength.
Key data point:
Japan’s 10-year yield is now ~3.65 standard deviations above its long-term average. Japanese banks hold a large share of long-duration bonds as assets and collateral, making the system especially vulnerable to yield shocks.
In this setup, gold is absorbing much of the risk premium, while Bitcoin shows a negative correlation to Japanese yields and has underperformed as yields rise.
Delphi’s takeaway:
If the BoJ steps in to stabilize the bond market, gold’s risk premium could ease — and Bitcoin may finally find room to recover.
