The prediction market is experiencing significant movement regarding the outcomes of crypto prices, with trading volumes of several tens of millions USD just for Bitcoin in January alone. There are also high-volume contracts for Ethereum, XRP, and Solana as well.
The concentration of capital in short-term price betting has raised concerns about the future of the crypto industry, as these cyclical and binary bets indicate that this industry is being viewed as a place for speculative betting rather than as an asset for long-term investment.
Polymarket users are betting on the price of crypto coins.
Crypto price prediction surveys are gaining popularity on Polymarket, with one contract set to remain open until the end of this week and recording trading volume of nearly 67 million USD tied to Bitcoin's price at the end of January.
Currently, the majority of participants are betting on a bearish outlook, with 85,000 USD becoming the popular low price. However, in the long term, most people have a more positive outlook on Bitcoin.
In another survey with trading volume exceeding 9.3 million USD, most bettors expect Bitcoin to reach 100,000 USD before the end of this year.
Additionally, speculation has extended beyond Bitcoin as users continue to place bets on Ethereum and other prominent coins like Solana and XRP.
Traders predict that ETH will drop to 2,600 USD while SOL is expected to trade around 110 USD in February, and XRP may fall to 1.80 USD.
These predictions come as the overall crypto market continues to struggle to return to positive territory, with Bitcoin down about 6% in the past week and unable to regain the 90,000 USD level.
Recent performance in the market has raised concerns about a bearish trend in the future, but even as analysts question the fundamentals, price volatility seems to motivate traders to participate in the market, leading many traders to view market weaknesses as opportunities to bet.
The question now is whether this change signals the onset of a new era for crypto and what it might mean for the long-term role of this market.
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Most advancements that crypto has made over the past year are based on being integrated as traditional investment assets. Significant events include Bitcoin and Ethereum being made available through ETF funds.
Moreover, there are other movements such as the registration of crypto companies on major stock exchanges and the expansion of traditional assets in token form on blockchain-based infrastructure.
However, as predictions suggest that the forecasting market will experience significant growth in 2026, the path of crypto seems to be entering a crucial crossroads.
The increase in polls tied to short-term crypto prices has resulted in trading volumes of hundreds of millions of USD. Thus, as short-term price bets attract more capital and interest, the market's fundamentals may be overlooked.
Meanwhile, various narratives may focus more on the probabilities and directions of the crowd rather than actual use cases or integration with the macroeconomics. At the same time, frequently referenced forecasting market odds can also influence traders' behaviors.
The high liquidity in these markets raises questions about whether crypto is becoming a tool for profit generation from volatility.
If short-term price bets continue to attract more capital than long-term investments, it may result in the market shifting to a center for short-term speculation rather than value creation.
