Only 15 minutes left until the release of the U.S. Consumer Confidence (CB) data, and volatility is already starting to show signs on the Bitcoin chart. But why does a piece of "real economy" data affect digital assets so much?
📉 The Scenario: What do the images tell us?
When analyzing the recent data, we noticed a clear pattern:
Downward Trend: Since the beginning of 2025, the index has been on a downward trajectory, reflecting a more cautious consumer.
The December "Miss": In the last month, the data came in at 89.1, significantly below the projection of 91.7.
Historical Reaction: This weakening of confidence usually puts negative pressure on the Dollar (DXY), which historically opens space for relief rallies in Bitcoin and Altcoins.
💡 Why does this matter for the Crypto Market?
The crypto market today is not living in a bubble; it reacts directly to liquidity and macroeconomic expectations:
Inverse Dollar: If today's data comes in below expectations, the dollar tends to lose strength. As the main pair is BTC/USD, a weak dollar generally drives the price of Bitcoin.
Pressure on the FED: Low confidence data signals that the economy is cooling down. This may force the American Central Bank (Fed) to be more aggressive in cutting interest rates — the favorite "fuel" of risk markets.
Risk-Off vs Risk-On Sentiment: If confidence comes in very high, the market may fear high interest rates for longer, generating a short-term correction.
🎯 What to observe now?
Bitcoin is currently testing crucial support zones below $90,000. A "weak" U.S. economic data may be the necessary catalyst to break local resistances and seek new highs.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Macro data causes extreme volatility. Protect your positions and use stop-loss!
And you, what is your guess? Does the data come in above or below the projection? Comment here below! 👇