On January 30, 2026, as the White House officially nominated the new Federal Reserve Chair, financial markets fell into a panic, with various asset prices experiencing severe fluctuations. Looking back at the retracement of each investment type from recent highs, the data is alarming: Bitcoin plummeted by about 35%, silver plunged by about 30%, and gold recorded a drop of about 13%.

This market performance reminds me of the analysis I conducted two days ago. At that time, I pointed out that among speculative assets like Bitcoin, gold, and silver, silver showed the most severe degree of bubbling, followed closely by gold, while Bitcoin was relatively lighter. The current market trend seems to just validate the reasonableness of this viewpoint.

As a staunch investor in fully-stocked index funds, I always hold a negative attitude towards any asset that cannot generate cash flow, including the aforementioned types. Essentially, they belong to purely speculative products, whose price fluctuations sometimes even exceed those of stock indices, but lack attractiveness in long-term returns. Statistics show that the long-term annualized return of such assets does not exceed 7%, which is not only far inferior to the approximately 11% performance of the S&P 500 index, but also significantly lower than the approximately 14% return of the Nasdaq 100 index.

Historical data often provides us with profound insights. Taking gold as an example, its price fell into a long-term downward trend after peaking in 1980, only breaking through that year's high again 28 years later in 2008. During this long cycle, investors could neither enjoy asset appreciation nor receive a penny in interest or dividend returns, which is precisely the pain point of investing in non-cash flow assets.