The bubble in the gold and silver markets ultimately could not escape, leading to a broken conclusion.

Looking back at my views expressed three days ago, I analyzed several major speculative assets and concluded that among Bitcoin, gold, and silver, silver faced the greatest bubble risk, with gold following closely, while Bitcoin's bubble degree was relatively the smallest.

As of January 30, 2026, with the White House officially nominating a new Federal Reserve chairman, market sentiment was severely hit, plunging into a wail. If we observe from the recent market peak, the trends of related assets indeed experienced a terrifying round of sharp corrections: Bitcoin fell by about 35%, gold dropped by about 13%, while silver's decline reached about 30%. The current market performance seems to strongly validate the rationality of my previous analysis.

As a firm investor who chooses to allocate all capital to stock index funds, my principle is to resolutely avoid any investment targets that cannot generate cash flow, and the aforementioned types of products fall into this category. Essentially, they belong to purely speculative tools, and their price volatility can sometimes exceed that of stock indices. However, from a long-term perspective, the annualized return of these assets typically does not exceed 7%, a figure far below the approximately 11% performance of the S&P 500 index, and cannot be compared with the long-term return of about 14% of the Nasdaq 100 index.

Taking the historical trend of gold as an example, its price peaked in 1980, after which it entered a long downward cycle, until 28 years later in 2008, when gold prices barely broke through the previous high. During this long waiting period, holders could neither earn interest income nor receive any dividend distribution.