Bitcoin analysis on the weekly timeframe: $60,000 or $100,000?
Currently, I am monitoring Bitcoin around the $75,000 mark – this is an important support level on the weekly timeframe. This area has just been retested, and how the price reacts here, in my opinion, will determine the next big direction of the market.
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has fallen below both the 20-week MA and the 50-week MA. At the current position, I see two relatively clear scenarios.
Scenario 1: Holding the April 2025 low – long-term trend still intact
In this scenario, Bitcoin holds the April 2025 low, with the $75,000 area acting as a higher low. If that happens, in my opinion, the long-term trend structure has not been broken: the market still maintains a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A drop to $75,000 at that point would just be a correction, not enough to conclude that the trend has reversed.
The 20-week MA cutting down or touching the 50-week MA is clearly a negative technical signal. But I do not consider it as definitive evidence of a bearish market. In many previous cycles, such signals often appeared quite late, after the price had already corrected strongly.
What I am most concerned about right now is whether Bitcoin will continue to create lower lows around the $75,000 area. If the price starts to stabilize and shows weekly closes indicating buying power returning, this scenario still has a chance.
To truly negate the risk of a broken 4-year cycle, in my opinion, Bitcoin needs to reclaim and close the week above the 50-week MA, which currently sits around $100,400. A weekly close above this area will show that momentum has clearly returned towards buyers.
Scenario 2: Losing the April 2025 low – structure broken
This scenario is simpler. If Bitcoin breaks the April 2025 low, I see it as a sign that the current bullish structure is no longer maintained:
– The higher low sequence is invalidated
– The $75,000 support area loses its value
In that case, the $50,000–$60,000 area will be the first downside target I pay attention to. This is a strong psychological price area and often appears as a 'reset' zone after the market has deeply corrected from the peak.
So what will determine which scenario wins?
For me, there are two questions to closely monitor:
Will Bitcoin hold the $75,000 mark by the end of the week?
Will the April 2025 low be broken?
If both $75,000 and the April 2025 low are maintained, I believe scenario 1 is still valid.
On the contrary, if both of these levels are breached, scenario 2 will become the higher probability scenario. What do you think the upcoming scenario will be?
#BTC
