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This ONE Indicator Will Decide If #Bitcoin Will Make New All-Time Highs -> https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/one-indicator-will-decide-bitcoin-will-make-new-alltime-highs 

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Altcoins Finally Flash Green: A Rotation Signal Worth Paying Attention To? Bitcoin dominance is slipping just as fresh liquidity returns to the market—an inflection that historically precedes altcoin leadership. After nearly three months of consistent BTC preference in our model, the latest signal points to a potential shift in performance dynamics. Stablecoin inflows are quietly rebuilding the base for risk-on positioning, even as trading volumes remain below peak cycle levels. The rebound in select names is spot-driven rather than leverage-driven, suggesting this rotation is healthier than prior false starts. Meanwhile, perpetual-heavy venues continue to lag, hinting at where overstretched positioning is being unwound. If this turn is real, the strongest performers may not be the loudest narratives but the assets already showing quiet accumulation beneath the surface. Full report: Crypto Trends Chart Book: Understand What is Moving in the Market and Why. https://signal.10xresearch.com/p/altcoins-finally-flash-green-a-rotation-signal-worth-paying-attention-to

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Prediction Markets: The 10 Strategies and 10 Golden Rules That Separate Arbitrage From Entertainment

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The Polymarket Bitcoin Trade Paying 63% Annualized With Near-Certain Odds Why this report matters Bitcoin has remained pinned near $90,000 since November 18, validating our short-strangle positioning. On November 24, we recommended selling the $70,000 put and $100,000 call for the December 26, 2025 expiry, targeting roughly a 30% annualized return. With the structure now compressing from $2,279 to $1,435, the short-volatility thesis is unfolding as expected. As liquidity thins into year-end, near-riskless arbitrage has become harder to find. Yet we outline below a compelling setup on Polymarket that still pays 63% annualized if the event simply fails to materialize, an outcome now approaching mathematical certainty (although it is more of a fun trade). More importantly, Wednesday’s FOMC echoes two earlier playbooks with clear outcomes for Bitcoin. Is this really the moment to gamble, or the moment to recognize the odds are already priced in? Would you take this Bitcoin bet below with near mathematical impossibility but still paying annualized returns of 63%? We discuss the trade here: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/the-polymarket-bitcoin-trade-paying-63-annualized-with-near-certain-odds-0300

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When the Crowd Loses, the Market Wins: Why Prediction Markets Reward the Few, Not the Many (Part 2 of 3) Part 1 (here): Prediction markets have entered a structural inflection point: liquidity is rising, regulatory clarity has arrived, and retail participation is accelerating just as professional desks position themselves to capture spread and information asymmetry. This Part 1 lays the groundwork, market architecture, liquidity composition, regulatory unlock, and the historical analogs that proved, repeatedly, that when new venues open, informed traders don’t chase narratives; they monetize them. Part 2: Prediction markets present themselves as collective intelligence machines, but the data show something far starker: accuracy and profit are driven not by the crowd, but by a tiny, informed elite who price probability, hedge exposure, and extract premium from retail-driven longshots. The majority of users behave like sports bettors—trading dopamine and narrative for discipline and edge—while a small cohort systematically monetizes mispriced optimism, order-flow imbalance, and late-stage convergence. Part 3 will lay out our ten executable trading frameworks for prediction markets, distill them into ten practical “golden rules,” and walk through three live trade setups, two of which we believe are strong enough to justify execution for experience and potential edge development. Please read below Part 2 of our three-part series below and you can read Part 1 (here). Please read below Part 1 of our three-part series: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/prediction-markets-the-next-structural-arbitrage-arena-bitcoin-traders-can-t-ignore-part-1-of-3 Please read below Part 2 of our three-part series: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/when-the-crowd-loses-the-market-wins-why-prediction-markets-reward-the-few-not-the-many-part-2-of-3

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Prediction Markets: The Next Structural Arbitrage Arena Bitcoin Traders Can’t Ignore? (Part 1 of 3)

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