0xLuc

Bottom fishing counterfeit = Mom won't recognize the drop

Most projects go live just to generate revenue,
basically, after a project goes live, it's the time for financial freedom,
but there are still retail investors who take over from the project party,
don't think there will be another coin like $BTC.
A few projects will hold a large number of tokens at launch and then go on a rampage,
blasting the opponent's positions, blasting hedged positions,
and then wildly selling at high prices,
the more centralized the project, the more it will be like this, there are only two ways to make money.
One is to always keep pace with the project party,
the other is to short new coins after a trend emerges.
Altcoins being just air makes sense.
#比特币VS代币化黄金 #美SEC推动加密创新监管 #ETH走势分析

Most retail investors are actually left-side traders, which is also the main reason for their losses.

Left-side trading (against the trend)
Price drops → think "that's enough" and buy early
Price rises → think "it's at the top" and short early
Core: predicting reversals

Right-side trading (with the trend)
Don't buy after a drop, wait for the bottoming
Chase after a rise, wait for a breakout
Core: confirm the trend before entering

Left-side trading requires a very high level of experience in bottom-fishing and topping. The risks and profits are also the largest. Must set stop-loss!!!

Right-side trading only requires following the market trend, and the risks can be much smaller.

After the 1011 crash, I believe many people bottom-fished after the plunge. The results are obvious, and now, just less than two months later, most new coins on Binance have basically been halved again and again. Especially on perpetual contracts, you have to be very cautious.
Perpetual contracts are not about who guesses better
It's about who dies slower, lives longer, and follows the direction.

In 1011 I basically had no positions left, went to play with shitcoins, not good at it but Hakimi made 30 times. It's also a compensation for 1011.

Now I feel it's time to enter the market, I will gradually bottom-fish $ETH

#ETH #左侧交易

How much is Elizabeth's current net worth

It's frustrating to lose money in a bear market and be called worthless. Let's roughly calculate how much is today's protagonist @Elizabethofyou's current net worth?

From the basic framework of financial economics,
The viewpoint that "If you don't achieve a 30% return in one month, it's a failure"
is completely untenable in risk pricing, return structure, and sustainability models.

High leverage leads to a severely non-normal distribution of returns.
Monthly return targets are extremely high, exceeding the predictable range of traditional models.
There are risks of liquidation, amplification of non-linear risks, and tail events being ignored.
The fatal error at the mathematical level is that this viewpoint doesn't even understand the basics of compound interest mathematics.

Let's roughly calculate how much is her current net worth.
We can see that her Twitter registration time is July 2020.
If she registered in July 2020, "studied for a year," and started achieving a monthly return of 30% from July 2021 until November 2025 (today), how much should she have earned?

From July 2021 → November 2025 total: 52 months (monthly cycle)

Monthlyized 30% = x1.3
Return multiple:
1.3^52 = 1.3^48 × 1.3^4
1.3^4 = 2.8561
≈ 13,800 × 2.86 = 39,468

If the principal is 10,000 U
10,000×39,468≈394,680,000U
That is to say:
🤑
395 million dollars, roughly 2.8 billion RMB

It turns out that I am still too poor. Is there anyone here who surpasses this big shot? If there is, you can go and call her worthless.
#加密市场回调 #美国非农数据超预期 #美联储重启降息步伐

I saw a picture from a group friend that Binance Alpha has started to ban a large number of accounts with violations.

This includes early changing of phone time to抢空投 (grab airdrops), scripts, and fund transfers between accounts, etc.

All accounts and assets have been frozen, and users are required to return the alpha obtained.

It's quite astonishing, have you encountered this? $BTC

#美国非农数据超预期 #比特币波动性 #香港稳定币新规

Kalshi has recently secured another $1 billion in financing, with its valuation skyrocketing to $11 billion, an incredibly rapid pace, led by Sequoia and Google's investment division.

Just over two months ago, it was valued at $5 billion, and now it has basically doubled. Its competitor Polymarket is also surging; it was just valued at $8 billion, and the target for the new funding round is now directly set at $12-15 billion.

The recent popularity of both platforms is due to their accurate predictions regarding the elections and the New York City mayoral race, which has led to a surge in attention. Kalshi offers a wide variety of things to bet on, from the presidency, movie ratings, weather, to various strange events, with participation from over 140 countries around the world.

Next year, the world's largest sporting event, the World Cup (2026), is almost certain to become a major traffic event for these platforms. As long as they open markets for "Who will be the champion" and "Who can reach the semifinals," it is expected to be even hotter than the elections, with a surge in users and explosive discussions, marking a significant opportunity for them to capture a huge influx of traffic. It is undoubtedly a golden period for prediction markets; previously, people would bet on sports matches, and now it can be resolved directly on-chain. This has made things much more convenient.
#Kalsh #Ploymarket

Good news, Hakimi is now in stock. Bad news, Pinduoduo has to buy stocks first, brothers. #美国结束政府停摆 #美国政府停摆 #币安HODLer空投ALLO

🌞【Main Daily】

Day trading stocks, writing poetry at night.

Drawing, working out, tasting tea, traveling in leisure,

Drinking vintage wine, playing golf, occasionally investing in projects.

In a good mood, with excellent sleep quality.


🐶【Retail Daily】

Monitoring the market, averaging down, leveraging, predicting tops and bottoms.

Buying at half-mountain, selling at the floor price.

Watching K-line every day, even dreaming of red and green candlesticks.

With a wave of market fluctuations, heart rate surges, appetite declines,

Libido disappears, mental breakdown.

Which one are you?

#BNB创新高 #美国ADP数据超预期 #币安HODLer空投SAPIEN

🐻 Bear is coming

Four-year cycle? Just right at the end of the bull and the beginning of the bear.

ZEC, FIL, ICP, every time it surges, it crashes nine out of ten, never missed.

No one believes the new narrative, stablecoin public chains, X402, Chinese memes, won't last more than a week.

The air force is taking action, you make money even with your eyes closed.


🐂 The bull hasn't left yet

The interest rate cut cycle is just beginning, how could the bull leave?

Panic index 22? The end of the bull and the beginning of the bear only starts crashing at seventy or eighty.

The recent drop is because the U.S. government closed its doors, withdrawing liquidity.

On the day it opens, when the money flows back, how can it not rise? $ETH

Do you think it will be a bear or a bull?



#美国ADP数据超预期 #币安HODLer空投SAPIEN #币安HODLer空投MMT

Very useful tool, this section is premium
Made in America
#币安HODLer空投SAPIEN #美国ADP数据超预期 #隐私币生态普涨

What is this, if not imitation season?

🧵This round of the cryptocurrency market plummeted: from HTX liquidation to ETF blood loss, a panoramic breakdown👇


1️⃣The most tragic deal:

A BTC-USDT long position on the HTX platform liquidated for 47.87 million USD, directly topping the liquidation list across the internet.
Market panic spreads, but this decline is not coincidental; it is a threefold overlap of industry + macro + capital.

2️⃣Industry level:

On 11.3, the established DeFi project Balancer was hacked for 116 million USD due to code issues.
On 11.4, the wealth management platform Stream Finance exploded, losing 93 million USD.
Two incidents in two days have directly cost the crypto space 200 million USD. Trust in capital has collapsed.

3️⃣Macro level:

The Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, and market expectations for rate cuts have evaporated.
ETF continuous net outflow: last week 800 million USD, and on 11.3 another 180 million.
The U.S. government was shut down for 35 days, with the Treasury withdrawing 700 billion in cash.
Trump's tariff case brings policy uncertainty.
Global risk assets are under pressure across the board.

4️⃣ETF continues to bleed:

BlackRock IBIT saw an outflow of 715 million USD in four days, accounting for half the market;
Fidelity, Grayscale, and other ETFs are also withdrawing funds.
This round of redemptions indicates a rapid cooling of institutional risk appetite.


5️⃣On-chain funds are also fleeing:

In the past 30 days, long-term holders (LTH) sold 405,000 BTC, cashing out 42 billion USD.
Medium-sized wallets (10-1000 BTC) have become the main force in dumping,
while whales are still gradually increasing their holdings.


6️⃣Double whammy appears:

ETFs and on-chain are simultaneously “bleeding.”
Institutions are fleeing + old players are cashing out,
causing market liquidity to dry up instantly; this is the core reason for this wave of plunge.


7️⃣Analysis institutions' views:

Glassnode: If it breaks the support at 113,000, it may return to 88,000.
10x Research: After breaking 107,000, it may test 100,000.
Banmu Xia: The bull market cycle has ended, and in the short term may see 84,000, but it is expected to return to 240,000 by the end of next year.

Liquidity tightening, institutional redemptions, and on-chain cash-outs are part of a systemic retreat.
The current market does not lack bullish sentiment, but there is no one daring to increase positions.
However, historically, November often marks the beginning of Bitcoin rebounds.
The future market still needs to be watched closely.

$BTC

#隐私币生态普涨 #加密市场回调 #巨鲸动向

The secondary market has fallen into a slump, and most traders are forced to incur losses. What is the reason?

1️⃣@binance Alpha tokens: Overvaluation, listing fees, draining liquidity

Now many projects are willing to hand over tokens to exchanges or use them for listing costs to quickly get onto the Binance Alpha sector, rather than airdropping them to the community.

The listing speed is very fast: As of June 2025, Alpha has over 190 projects, with an average of about 30 new tokens launched each month. The total market value of the sector once reached about 17 billion USD, with as many as 17 new projects joining in a single week.

A large amount of capital has flowed into these new projects, leading to a compression of liquidity in the traditional spot market (especially for altcoins and small-cap cryptocurrencies), decreased trading volume, and price support being drained. Most new altcoins have been wiped out, with the A-shares bull, US stocks bull, and altcoins suffering like this.

2️⃣ The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts did not meet expectations

The market originally expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, providing more liquidity. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell clearly stated that a rate cut is "not a done deal," leaving market expectations unmet.

As a result, capital did not flow into high-risk assets, including the crypto market, as the market had expected, but rather pressured the prices of risk assets. This has led to gold consistently breaking new highs.

3️⃣ Trump's tariff policy exacerbates market uncertainty

After Trump took office again, he introduced extensive tariff policies, especially imposing high tariffs on Chinese exports, increasing international trade friction and imported inflation.

Rising corporate costs put pressure on risk assets, and investors tend to seek safety, leading to more liquidity in the market flowing towards safe assets, while funds for risk assets (including crypto and altcoins) have been withdrawn.

The tokens in the Alpha sector are inflated, listings are fast, draining market funds; it has destroyed the yield farming environment and the secondary market environment. One can only say that the current environment is really poor.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts fell short of expectations, leaving risk assets lacking support;
Tariff policies have increased economic uncertainty, further directing funds towards conservative assets. @realDonaldTrump I am not a trader, I am just a line drawer.

An industry guided by decentralization is now controlled by the most powerful people. How sad!

The question of life: Will the secondary market be okay again?

#加密市场回调 #币安HODLer空投MMT #巨鲸动向

4-year large cycle + Federal Reserve interest rate cuts + 1011 crash + Alt/Btc + long position liquidation
Currently, the market is at a hellish level of difficulty. Do you believe altcoin season will return? $LINEA

#加密市场回调 #内容挖矿升级 #中美贸易谈判

According to Axios, sources revealed that Consensys, the parent company of MetaMask, has hired JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs to lead its initial public offering (IPO). @Linea.eth as Consensys's first tokenized product has seen a continuous price decline. $LINEA ConsenSys founder Joseph Lubin tweeted that a new token economic platform and launch platform will be introduced on Linea. "If we can accelerate the global adoption of prediction markets like Polymarket and MYRIAD, we can bring collective intelligence and market forces into governance and decision-making at all levels of society. Before Futarchy can truly become widespread, we need deep liquidity and broad applications of prediction markets. Once this goal is achieved, we can begin to replace subjective and centralized control of platforms that have rent-seeking and de-platforming power with more objective market-based decision-making involving a wider range of stakeholders.
Currently, Linea's price is unsatisfactory; whether it will become another hundredfold coin in the future remains to be seen!
#Linea #加密市场回调

After the US stock market opened, the Nasdaq broke through 24000 points, continuing to set a new historical high. Cryptocurrency concept stocks showed mixed results, including:

Circle(CRCL) down 1.12%;
Coinbase(COIN) up 0.1%;
Strategy (MSTR) down 0.06%;
MARA Holdings(MARA) up 0.37%;
Riot Platforms (RIOT) down 0.65%.

ETH Crypto Treasury (DAT) company:
Bitmine Immersion (BMNR) down 2.2%;
SharpLink Gaming (SBET) down 1.35%;
Bit Digital (BTBT) up 1.3%;
BTCS Inc (BTCS) down 0.03%.
#中美贸易谈判 #美联储降息预期 #巨鲸动向

Interest rate cut tonight, historical pattern reappears?
🔹 Date: October 29
🔹 Event: The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates while the S&P 500 reaches a historical high
🔹 Historical occurrences: 5th time
🔹 Results of the previous 4 times:
 → S&P 500 increased after 12 months
 → Average increase ≈ +20%
Will the market go up or down?
#加密市场回调 #中美贸易谈判 #美联储降息预期

The latest event for Little Fox has arrived
Register to receive 500 points. Welcome to use my registration code X0PF05
Metamask
https://link.metamask.io/rewards?referral=X0PF05
Update to the latest version. The event is in the bottom right corner.
#Linea #中美贸易谈判 #美联储降息预期

💰 Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision Preview

October 29 (2 AM Beijing time on Thursday),
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision,
followed by a press conference held by Chairman Powell at 2:30 AM.
The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points tonight.
According to CME's "FedWatch" data:

✅ Probability of a 25 basis points cut: 99.4%
❌ Probability of keeping rates unchanged: 0.6%

The market focus has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "the frequency and pace of rate cuts."
Investors widely expect that by December, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by a total of 50 basis points will be as high as 91.3%.
The dates for the next two FOMC meetings are:

📅 October 29, 📅 December 10.
"A rate cut is almost a foregone conclusion; what the market is really concerned about is how many more times the Federal Reserve will cut and how quickly."

Do you think that with the arrival of rate cuts, the market will turn from decline to rise?
#加密市场回调 #法国比特币战略储备计划 #美联储降息预期

Haha, that's interesting