Why the bottom is always where no one wants to look.
By the time of the current reversal, the crowd is already emotionally bankrupt. They do not want to analyze, do not want to wait, do not want to believe. They leave the market precisely when the manipulator finally succeeds.
Why do some call $10,000 'capital', while others consider large sums only from $200,000?
The perception of money is not the amount in the account, but the scale of thinking. People often refer to amounts as 'large' that allow them to solve a local problem: to leave, to buy equipment, to survive a crisis. For them, money is security.
But for entrepreneurs and investors, the structure of thinking works differently.
Micro-growths are thrown in. Positive news drips in. Just enough for a person to think: "Well, soon..." And then silence again. Then the lower limit of the channel again. This breaks the internal rhythm. Nerves can't withstand more than deposits.
Yes, right now is not the best stage of the market. Full of apathy and disorientation, I won't say again: This is what it's designed for - I won't.
The only thing I want to emphasize is that retail market participants are in deep misunderstanding and depression. Many even here, with us in the community, are sure that they have decided to take their money and leave the market.
They won't say this publicly, but internally the decision has already been made. So yes, when the market recovers to a tariff war, it will force many to find themselves in a price zone where decisions will be made in the moment, or they will already come with this decision carried within them, after some time.
And yes, many have made this decision now. But even more will make the decision when the market recovers.
By the way, you know my position; I’m going to the finish line, and I don’t care what it will be, positive or negative. I have no desire to exit with my own, having invested so much time, effort, and nerves into this market.
UPD: To the finish line, I mean until I see Profit. Again, holding an asset too long is also not worth it.
When the price stands still, psychological erosion occurs.
There is neither growth nor decline. Only a subtle feeling that "I am wasting time." It benefits the manipulator for the position to feel like a suitcase without a handle. A tired person will sell what they would calmly hold onto while the price moves.
The manipulator plays on two fears: being last and being first.
"Everyone has already left — I must too."
"Everyone is still sitting — I'm a fool for holding on."
True art is to create both illusions simultaneously, so that people feel wrong regardless of their choice. When it seems there is no right path — both the strong and the weak leave the market.
Everyone is waiting for the final "red day". But for the manipulator, silence is more beneficial. Sideways movement, low volatility, complete boredom. The crowd exhales, burns out, stops believing. This is why a long emptiness is created. Silence breaks better than panic.
You are shown: you entered early. You entered late. You exited incorrectly. You are holding "trash". You are too confident. You are not experienced enough. A person leaves the market not when they lose money. But when they lose confidence.
Manipulations with charts: how they lure into traps
A price spike upwards to attract "breakout" enthusiasts. A sharp drop — to trigger stop losses. And a quiet return to where it all began. People lose money due to emotions. The market — NOBODY.
The most dangerous emotion in the market is not greed, but boredom.
When the chart is stagnant, the brain starts demanding action. "Well, do something at least". And a person acts. Most often — foolishly. While the smart wait, the bored investor opens the doors to the zoo of their own mistakes.
The market is like a noisy party. When it's empty, no one goes in. As soon as everyone bursts in, the music is booming — people think, "Now is definitely the time to enter." The paradox: the more expensive it is, the more confident the crowd becomes. Manipulators simply wait for the line to get long - to sell to those who like to arrive late.
I looked a bit through English-speaking Twitter. I only saw that most experts, both big and small, are drawing a pattern of Bitcoin's decline to 45k.
I'll say this: historical charts can be interpreted in any way. The chart can be compressed, stretched. It can be set by weeks or months. And it is very possible to find the right structure to argue why it will be this way and not another.
If a retail participant does the same, they will see the same thing. And once again, they will confirm to themselves that a bear cycle is beginning.
In a world of crowd manipulation, there is a very convenient tool:
To scare the most susceptible and uneducated. Then, the structure of collective "reason" will draw in others. And if everyone thinks this way, then it is the truth - no.
Now, for more than 1300+ days, the market has been in a phase of accumulation. This is a record.
Mass adoption, the elites themselves are launching their projects. An example of this is the Trump token. Many other world leaders will follow this example when the time comes. More precisely - euphoria.
Only in the presence of euphoria in all markets will the regulator turn a blind eye to the lawlessness, just as they turned a blind eye to the retail scam with the Trump coin.
Briefly about the cover of The Economist for the year 2026.
The cover does not predict the future; it merely reflects the current sentiments.
If you are looking for hidden meaning, then it is pointless. The scenario of future behavior can only be understood through the current news background and rhetoric. Important: Based on key news and news background.
It is necessary to separate junk information from valuable information.
I regularly observe how people participating in the crypto market get swayed by slogans about the beginning of a bear market.
I do not analyze along the way at what stage we are in the economy. Comparing with the previous growth cycle, and convincing both myself and everyone that this is the end.
Now there is a different economic paradigm: - Decreasing rates - Stopping QT - Soon the assurance of war And many other positive news in the long term. But people only see what is happening in the moment.
The essence of the economic system is inflation growth. The dollar system was established about 200 years ago. To be precise, the first dollar as a currency backed by gold was printed in 1792, and since then, this system has not undergone modernization.
The essence of this system with unlimited emission looks like this: Printing currency → Growth of liquidity in the system → Decrease in the rate → Growth of inflation → Increase in the rate → Withdrawal of liquidity → Decrease in inflation.
And so on in a circle. Because otherwise, it cannot be.