Если вы заметили, штаты очень активно перебрасывают резервы и свою армию на базы в Израиль. В том числе бомбардировщики, заправщики и прочую технику.
Заварушка может быть очень долгой и принести коллапс в финансовой системе. Нефть, это 80% всей мировой промышленности: Логистика, производство, сельское хозяйство и прочее. Все завязано на нефти. В случае тотальной задницы в том регионе. Это может привести к удорожанию жизни, к примеру сейчас в Европе цены на продукты подскочили на +30%. А что будет когда резервы нефтепродуктов иссякнут, а восполнение не представляет возможным? Думаю ответ очевиден.
Вроде как, начинаю снимать эмбарго с российской нефти. Однако это не полностью открытая и белая торговля напрямую, а частично завязано на фирмах прокладках. Поэтому удовлетворить полноценно спрос будет затруднительно.
Я думаю, нас ждёт долгосрочный шок в мировой экономике. Сопоставим с ковид19, или куда хуже, коллапс экономики, мировой торговли и отношений государств. Проще говоря, такое поведение элит, может привести к более масштабным разрушениям вплоть до девальвации фиатных валют, или вовсе исчезновения некоторых из них. Даже мировых валют, которые являются средством транзакции, платежей и обмена.
Искренне надеюсь что этот абсурд закончится, но вспоминая о великой депрессии 20-х годов во всем мире, то невольно задумываюсь: А не есть ли это план, перезагрузки финансового фундамента, который строился после второй мировой.
Посмотрим, к чему это все приведет. Но деды у власти, решили поиграть в войнушки.
Slowly, the crypto market is turning into a circus of clowns. Where manipulations, hacks, and robberies occur. And no one does anything to ensure safety.
What is all this for?
It is important to look at the context of these events. First, this is done to quickly adopt regulatory laws regarding the crypto market. To have a clear picture of what can be done and what cannot. What is a security and what is just a wrapper and not subject to regulation.
Secondly, such manipulations and impunity make the average person take this market less seriously. An ordinary buyer will not invest in such a market, hence the absence of competition for certain positions. All of this erodes trust in this market, like Aunt Dusia's snot across the counter of a rural store.
Less interest in the market, more opportunities for its manipulation, with fewer competitors in position. For example, the token RAVE.
If you collect all this data as a whole, the crypto market feels like a bar in the Wild West. Where everyone, from riffraff to aristocrats, can enter and brawl with each other. A kind of zone where anything goes and there is no punishment.
This is what I'm getting at. On this path, there is disappointment with the market, the situation in the world, and the overall circumstances. Each of you who has invested a significant amount in the market feels a sense of emptiness, anger, and despair. Many have already gone through the acceptance stage and are looking at this market soberly and without aggression, which is what I advise you to do.
Binance feed was created for smart ideas, thoughts, and interesting articles. In the end, we got a stream of garbage created by AI, and naked breasts. No analytics, no analysis, no reasonable articles on crypto topics.
It's worth considering what you are reading here and what is valuable to you. Unfortunately, the feed here has turned into a plastic environment or, simply put, a dead internet.
The game in the markets continues, yesterday we placed a short bet of 950 million on the decline of oil, with a single order. They didn't even hesitate to dilute this bet into small fractions across different exchanges.
How long this will last, I don't know. But the fact that they are playing war games for profit on the exchanges is already clear. The problem is that people are silent, not raising a scandal, not demanding clarity and healthy competition in futures. It makes me think that everyone is tied to these profits, except for retail participants. From large to small funds.
They have been relieved of all kinds of responsibility for manipulation and given the green light. I really hope that there are still reasonable people in the states who will take measures regarding this. Because insider trading is criminally punishable, and quite seriously.
So my advice to you for 2026. Abstract from the market as much as possible, but if you want to buy projects - do it selectively. For an amount that won't impact the quality of your life.
At the moment, I observe economic slowdown on the part of the population of all countries, and a reluctance to participate in the activities of any market. It doesn't matter which one. It is the slowdown of ordinary people, not investors and funds, but specifically ordinary people. Everyone is trying to minimize their spending, cut unnecessary expenses, subscriptions, and the like. It is we who are the ones that profits are fixed upon. No consumer, no earnings for the funds.
Recently, I have been observing Trump's erratic behavior. There is nervousness and a lack of understanding about what he is doing. There are several interpretations of his behavior.
Option 1
He is being blackmailed through Epstein's files. There is compromising information on him that will definitely ruin his political career and may affect his freedom of movement. The person who holds these files understands perfectly well what they are doing. That's why Trump is spouting blatant nonsense at conferences, claiming that the USA is winning and that Iran is begging for charity. This is outright lying.
I think each of you is already fed up with the number of statements about the adoption of some laws. Discussions, conferences, negotiations. But in fact, everything is stuck in the same place as it was, only they talk a lot and the result is zero. I know this all greatly annoys me and makes me sick, which is why I don't reach out, because there's nothing to reach out about. Comment on what? Another info dump, just as valuable as the one from six months ago? I see no point.
As we can see, Iran is giving a worthy response to the invasion of its country, and that is good. American democracy has already tired the whole world.
And now an important detail in all of this. There is an important chess game happening in the world right now, on several boards. And yes, we do not influence everything that is happening - not at all. Our task is to stay sane and try to extract our share of the benefit. I wrote above that if a third world war is launched in a limited part of the earth, that could even be good. Yes, people are dying, the economy is collapsing, markets are losing money. But this is part of the path to rebooting the financial environment.
During these days, we have witnessed the possible beginning of World War III. Once again, possible.
And what about the market? Nothing. Even the stock market didn't fall. Why? After all, the event is very large-scale; markets should collapse like a house of cards in such a situation. So why isn't it falling? Well, because someone doesn't need it right now.
Now the question is: How can one believe in that nonsense when they say that the market lives its own life, and no one influences it? How?
Because the market does not live and has never lived its own life; the entire economy of the world is subject to manipulations. Any industry is manipulation and artificially supported. Prices for real estate, land, cars, and more. Even dental services are an artificially supported pricing system. Behind which there is nothing, and it bears no market value.
Zeroing out the US national debt and burning the liquidity printed in 2021.
2021 year, the height of the pandemic, the closure of a bunch of companies, loss of jobs and a decrease in consumption. It triggered a total liquidity printing to save the situation in the global economy. This led to a decline in trust in the dollar and the dollar system as a whole. This situation was emergency, one could say test-like in its nature. Which led to a world full of unsecured liquidity, which in turn led to nothing good.
The fall of the stock market will also drag down the crypto market?
At the moment, the stock market is updating its ATH, and theoretically, it can do this for a long time until large institutional investors secure their share of profits. The question is: Where will this money go?
Money, especially large capital, never parks its profits in cash. It's always a spillover from one asset to another. Whether it's the real sector of the economy or the virtual one, it doesn't matter. Unfortunately, predicting where this spillover will go is impossible. We do not have insider information. But we can, based on probability theory, assume which sector of the economy this capital might flow into.
Quietly, tokenized stocks are being brought into the crypto sector, while crypto projects are being destroyed. A strange trend. The mixing of the crypto market with U.S. stocks is absurd and promises nothing good. It turns out that the stock market is absorbing the crypto market, and everything is getting mixed up.
It's understandable, the perspective and the money, but against the backdrop of the stock market, the crypto market looks like a puddle compared to the ocean (funds).
So, right now we are in the most distressing situation in the history of the market.
Many experts like Crypto Quant are saying that there is no retail left in this market at all, which is probably more true than false. Indeed, retail activity is not just minimal; it simply doesn't exist. As I mentioned earlier: Why drive retail out of this market?
I will go on air, on low frequencies as they say. The other day I saw news that the laws on the structure of the crypto market may not fit into the deadline, supposedly by April. But this is not certain, the deadlines keep getting pushed back. As mentioned earlier, it makes sense to create a party without market regulation. And those survivors who stayed until the market recovers and subsequently grows - will be taxed.
No matter how sadly it sounds, during Trump's year in power, the situation in the world and in the markets has turned into a circus with clowns.
My opinion about the market has turned 180°. Partially, this may be a show to distract attention, and they are succeeding at it. But the longer this "show" goes on, the less faith there is that it is a show. It seems more like a deliberate wobble of the global economy.
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