乔阁部
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Ethereum and altcoins have broken through their prices relative to Bitcoin after more than 1100 days of adjustment, which is very similar to the last round. At this moment, one should not continue to feel pessimistic about the prospects of altcoins. During the QE period, Ethereum will significantly outperform Bitcoin. Currently, QT has ended, and holding quality spot assets while waiting for QE to restart is a good time to practice being greedy when others are fearful. $ETH
$BTC
$BTC
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Bitwise has launched its first cryptocurrency index fund, which uses a market-cap weighted strategy, making it suitable for long-term holding. It is highly likely to become a gold index in the crypto field, similar to the Dow Jones or S&P 500 in the future.
For ordinary investors, there is no longer a need to struggle with whether ETH or SOL is the future; they can choose to invest in this index fund without much thought.
For ordinary investors, there is no longer a need to struggle with whether ETH or SOL is the future; they can choose to invest in this index fund without much thought.
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With Wall Street's deep involvement, the crypto market is rapidly becoming similar to US stocks, characterized by: long bull + low volatility.
On the market, excluding BTC, ETH, and stablecoins, the total market cap of crypto should already be confirmed at the bottom range. Although the rise will take time, it is currently a good left-side layout opportunity, similar to the end of 2024 and mid-2025. $BTC
$ETH
$BNB
On the market, excluding BTC, ETH, and stablecoins, the total market cap of crypto should already be confirmed at the bottom range. Although the rise will take time, it is currently a good left-side layout opportunity, similar to the end of 2024 and mid-2025. $BTC
$ETH
$BNB
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Share a simple method to judge the rise and fall of Bitcoin: 1️⃣ If the US stock market (the Nasdaq effect is the best) rises while Bitcoin falls, then there is a high probability of a subsequent decline.
2️⃣ If the US stock market falls while Bitcoin rises against the trend, then there will be further increases ahead.
The red arrow represents situation 2️⃣, and the green arrow represents situation 1️⃣.
2️⃣ If the US stock market falls while Bitcoin rises against the trend, then there will be further increases ahead.
The red arrow represents situation 2️⃣, and the green arrow represents situation 1️⃣.
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The current macro situation is more like the end of 2019 rather than the end of 2021, more like the eve of a bull market rather than the end of a bull market.
From a macro policy perspective, we are on the eve of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and balance sheet expansion, not the opposite. Therefore, we should have stronger confidence in the future performance of mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. $BTC
From a macro policy perspective, we are on the eve of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and balance sheet expansion, not the opposite. Therefore, we should have stronger confidence in the future performance of mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. $BTC
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Since Bitcoin peaked, ETFs have only sold 4-5% of their cumulative holdings, which indicates that major institutions remain confident in Bitcoin.
Wall Street's capital has taken over millions of bitcoins, this is not the end, but a beginning. $BTC
Wall Street's capital has taken over millions of bitcoins, this is not the end, but a beginning. $BTC
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Bitfinex long positions are currently at a cyclical high, and savvy investors are not hesitating to position themselves on dips, making the likelihood of further increases greater. $BTC
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The latest valuation model for ETH indicates that its fair value should be $4998.8, which is undervalued by 50% compared to the current price of $3212.5.
This valuation model is derived from a combination of 12 different methods, including TVL, protocol revenue, price-to-sales ratio, online staking conditions, etc., making it quite reliable.
However, the most reliable data, protocol revenue, currently values at only $1392, which is one of the two sell signals among the 12 signals. $ETH
This valuation model is derived from a combination of 12 different methods, including TVL, protocol revenue, price-to-sales ratio, online staking conditions, etc., making it quite reliable.
However, the most reliable data, protocol revenue, currently values at only $1392, which is one of the two sell signals among the 12 signals. $ETH
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A few days ago, CZ tweeted that it is best to sell when market greed reaches its peak and to buy when market fear reaches its peak. However, it is indeed very difficult to go against human nature and buy when everyone is in a panic.
Looking back, buying Bitcoin during times of panic has had great returns afterwards. $BTC
Looking back, buying Bitcoin during times of panic has had great returns afterwards. $BTC
See original
Bitcoin, where is the bottom of this round of retracement?
Bitcoin is currently priced at $86,635, and there are two positions that will serve as strong support for Bitcoin's decline: the production cost of Bitcoin at $88,843 and the electricity cost of Bitcoin at $71,074, of which the first price has already been breached, and the second has never been breached in history.
Currently, Bitcoin has dropped about 40 from its peak, and regardless of where the endpoint is, the decline won't last too long.
Bitcoin is currently priced at $86,635, and there are two positions that will serve as strong support for Bitcoin's decline: the production cost of Bitcoin at $88,843 and the electricity cost of Bitcoin at $71,074, of which the first price has already been breached, and the second has never been breached in history.
Currently, Bitcoin has dropped about 40 from its peak, and regardless of where the endpoint is, the decline won't last too long.
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The valuation of Bitcoin priced in gold is at its lowest level since 2013 (even lower than the bottoms of the previous two bear markets and the starting point of this bull market).
The safe-haven attribute of Bitcoin has not been fully considered; even if the market prices Bitcoin as a completely risky asset, its gains still lag far behind those of U.S. stocks.
The safe-haven attribute of Bitcoin has not been fully considered; even if the market prices Bitcoin as a completely risky asset, its gains still lag far behind those of U.S. stocks.
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The US dollar has softened over the past week or so, which is good news for risk assets like Bitcoin and US stocks.
The dollar faces two negative factors: first, the extremely dovish Haskett is a clear frontrunner to become the chair of the Federal Reserve, and second, the likelihood of a rate cut in December has jumped significantly from less than 35% to over 80%.
The dollar faces two negative factors: first, the extremely dovish Haskett is a clear frontrunner to become the chair of the Federal Reserve, and second, the likelihood of a rate cut in December has jumped significantly from less than 35% to over 80%.
B
BFUSD/USDT
Price
0.9991
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S&P lowers Tether's ability to maintain its peg to the US dollar to the lowest rating.
S&P ratings have been around for over a century, and if I remember correctly, the last time there was extensive coverage of a downgrade by S&P was with Guangzhou Evergrande, when there was a lot of criticism, and later everyone became aware of the two trillion issue. If Tether were to collapse, the amount might not just be a two trillion problem.
S&P ratings have been around for over a century, and if I remember correctly, the last time there was extensive coverage of a downgrade by S&P was with Guangzhou Evergrande, when there was a lot of criticism, and later everyone became aware of the two trillion issue. If Tether were to collapse, the amount might not just be a two trillion problem.
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It's so tragic. Capital B, a European Bitcoin institution once known as one of the 'three major regional micro-strategies' alongside Strategy and Metaplanet, recently released a buy announcement, but each time it only involves single-digit operations like 5 or 6 coins, which is less than what many large players and bottom-fishing bloggers in the Chinese community are doing. Just five months ago, this company was still throwing hundreds of BTC every now and then. The contrast is just too great.
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The latest quarterly BTC global hash heat distribution map shows that China's Bitcoin hash power share has entered the world's top 3, reaching 14% 🇨🇳, with the top 2 being the United States at 37% 🇺🇸 and Russia at 15% 🇷🇺. Next year, it is highly likely to surpass Russia and become the world's second.
Currently, there is an excess of domestic electricity supply, and a large amount of electrical energy has been converted into hash power. Although policies do not yet support it, capital always finds the most profitable places to mine.
Currently, there is an excess of domestic electricity supply, and a large amount of electrical energy has been converted into hash power. Although policies do not yet support it, capital always finds the most profitable places to mine.
See original
Binance founder CZ predicted five years in advance that various media would report Bitcoin 'crashing' from $100,000 to around $85,000, while at that time Bitcoin was only worth $20,000, and the comments section was filled with skepticism.
The gap between the richest and ordinary investors lies here; during the decline of Bitcoin, ordinary people panic sell, while the wealthy see opportunities in the distant future.
The gap between the richest and ordinary investors lies here; during the decline of Bitcoin, ordinary people panic sell, while the wealthy see opportunities in the distant future.
See original
The monthly RSI indicator for the Bitcoin/Gold ratio is currently more oversold than the bear market bottoms in 2014 and 2018. This situation resembles a deep bear bottom rather than a bull market top, making long positions potentially inappropriate, but short positions are equally risky. Gradually buying and holding Bitcoin spot in the long term could be a good choice.
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The yellow circles indicate:
2018—The real bottom of the previous bear market
2020—Global financial market collapse due to COVID-19
2022—FTX collapse (bottom of the previous bear market)
2023.8.17—Large-scale liquidation day in the crypto market
2024.8—Trade crisis to come
2025.4—Tariff crisis triggers panic
2025.10—The latest wave of a major crash
Every time a panic seemingly at the level of the end of the world occurs, it happens near the same long-term support line.$BTC
2018—The real bottom of the previous bear market
2020—Global financial market collapse due to COVID-19
2022—FTX collapse (bottom of the previous bear market)
2023.8.17—Large-scale liquidation day in the crypto market
2024.8—Trade crisis to come
2025.4—Tariff crisis triggers panic
2025.10—The latest wave of a major crash
Every time a panic seemingly at the level of the end of the world occurs, it happens near the same long-term support line.$BTC
See original
This bull market can be said to be the strangest bull market ever. In previous bull market peaks, social media indicators were at the top range, abruptly stopping during the bustling times, while this bull market peak (if it is one) is also marked by silence and panic. Social indicators have reached a historic low of 0.068, which is completely consistent with the bear market bottoms of 2018/2022.
So, are we at the bull peak or the bear bottom? $BTC
So, are we at the bull peak or the bear bottom? $BTC
See original
After YU and USDX, another stablecoin has depegged. The stablecoin USDJ, backed by Sun, has depegged and is no longer redeemable at a 1:1 ratio but has changed to a 1:1.55 ratio for TRX. Currently, 1 USDJ = 0.43u. At the same time, TRX continues to decline, forced to transition from a stable asset to a volatile asset.
As the old saying goes, you can listen to Sun's words, but don't touch any of Sun's projects. $TRX
As the old saying goes, you can listen to Sun's words, but don't touch any of Sun's projects. $TRX
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🔥 #CPIWatch — Inflation Update That Matters NOW 🔥
Global Consumer Price Index (CPI) data continues to show inflation evolving in powerful ways — and markets are watching every tick. Latest figures reveal U.S. CPI inflation holding at ~3.0% year-over-year, slightly below expectations but still stubbornly above many central bank targets — making this one of the most watched macroeconomic indicators in 2025.
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• India’s CPI inflation jumped to 0.71% in November 2025, up from a historic low in October, driven by slowing food price declines and rising core pressures — though still well under the RBI’s target range. This could give the Reserve Bank of India room for further policy easing.
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• U.S. inflation prints remain sticky, with core CPI still elevated and markets debating the timing and magnitude of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
📈 WHY THIS MOVE MATTERS
CPI is not just a number — it’s a pulse check on living costs and monetary policy direction. Higher readings can tighten financial conditions, push yields up, and dampen risk assets; softer prints can spark rallies in stocks and crypto. Every unexpected CPI surprise has the power to reshape markets within minutes.
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Inflation remains central to economic forecasts and financial positioning worldwide — from interest rate expectations to consumer power, bond markets and asset prices. #CPIWatch isn’t just data — it’s the heartbeat of the global economy right now.
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