❗Extremely low $BTC volatility — is a big move coming?
Bitcoin has been trading in a very tight range for several days. Volatility is at very low levels, which usually means a strong move is getting close. The only question is: which direction?
Possible scenarios:
• If $BTC fails to hold support and breaks down, we could see prices around 74–76k, and in the worst case even near 50k.
• If it breaks above 92–94k and holds, we could see another push toward 100k+. However, volume remains weak and there’s no clear sign of strong demand yet.
The market currently looks weak: there are no aggressive buyers, price moves lack volume, and volatility is extremely low. Without volume confirmation, opening positions is risky.
Right now, it’s not worth guessing the direction. The best approach is to wait for a clear signal. Once there’s a breakout confirmed by volume, then opportunities may appear.
Just picked this up from the mail… And I couldn’t be happier. I want to thank Binance from the bottom of my heart for this end-of-year merchandise. ❤️
It’s always exciting to receive merch from Binance, and this gesture motivates me even more to keep creating content and bringing value to the community. 🫂
A huge thank you to my community as well — none of this would be possible without you!
Main points from Jerome Powell’s speech at the FOMC press conference:
The data we have shows that our overall view has not changed. Inflation is still high. The labor market seems to be cooling down gradually. The effects of the government shutdown should be offset by higher growth next quarter. The GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been revised upward. The main drivers are steady consumer spending and continued high spending on AI. Since the October meeting, there have been very few new inflation data. The risks of inflation rising remain to the upside. Interest rates are now in a neutral range, neither high nor low. The Fed will make decisions meeting by meeting. Purchases of U.S. government bonds to manage reserves may remain high for several months to ease pressure in the money market. The rate cuts since September (75 basis points) give us room to wait and see how the economy develops. We have made progress in reducing inflation, especially non-tariff-related inflation. It does not feel like the economy is overheating. We believe that the job growth in recent months is overstated. If we exclude tariffs, inflation would be around 2%. AI is one of the reasons for the weak labor market, but not the main one.
Large investors hold about 4 million BTC, which is almost 19% of all existing bitcoin.
According to BitcoinTreasuries, ETFs, public and private companies, institutional investors, governments, and sovereign funds collectively store more than 4,000,000 BTC, valued at around $360 billion at the current price.
The share held by these major holders has reached approximately 19% of the total bitcoin supply.
Bloomberg: the options market signals a “crypto winter”
Bloomberg analysts say there is a strong shift toward $BTC options expiring in December. This shows that many traders are focusing on short-term moves, expecting the price to stay in a range and betting on low volatility (meaning they don’t expect big price changes right now).
According to Wintermute strategist Jasper de Maere, the market expects “stability for now”, but thinks big moves could come later.
Other bearish signs:
In the last five weeks, more than $2.7 billion has been withdrawn from the iShares Bitcoin Trust.
BTC’s yearly performance is below the S&P 500 for the first time in over 10 years.
Perpetual futures show negative funding rates, meaning there are more short positions.
We can see $BTC chart is forming higher lows. If it continues this way, we could see the 100–102k $ range soon. In general, I’m not very satisfied with the performance of some altcoins I had in my portfolio, so I reduced my exposure and moved into $ETH. Still, I’m keeping around 15–20% in stablecoins just in case.
A new gadget for traders has come out — the Moodring, a ring that connects to TradingView and alerts you to market changes using vibrations and light signals. If the price of your coin suddenly goes up or down, the ring reacts immediately.
Moodring doesn’t only work with crypto: it can also send signals related to workouts, sleep, work, and other notifications.
Bitcoin Could Rise Again to $98,000–$100,000 — Experts Say.
According to analysts at Coindesk, $BTC has the potential to move into the $98,000–$100,000 range in the near future. What supports the growth: the BVIV volatility index has fallen to 48; the U.S. dollar index (DXY) has resumed its decline; BTC is trading in a “bullish zone”; the MACD indicates positive momentum. The $98,000–$100,000 level remains a key resistance and an important psychological barrier. However, if Bitcoin fails to hold the current support, the bullish scenario will be invalidated.
A trader turned $12 into almost $30,000 on Polymarket
A user called ascetic0x made several bets on quick Bitcoin price moves — and he guessed correctly 11 times in a row where BTC would end up.
He started with small bets of $10 to $100, and little by little increased them to $700, $2,000, and $3,000. His biggest profit was $11,000 from a single prediction.
These are the main reasons behind the recent decline in the crypto market: 📉
1. Japan surprised global markets The Bank of Japan signaled for the first time in many years that it may raise interest rates on December 19. This caused the yen to strengthen quickly and led to the unwinding of carry-trade positions. As a result, Japanese capital flowed out of foreign assets, reducing liquidity and putting pressure on both stocks and cryptocurrencies. In addition, Japanese bond yields rose to levels not seen since 2008, making local assets more attractive and encouraging capital to return to Japan. 2. Investors are waiting for important US data Key reports on consumer spending, the labor market, and business activity are being released this week. Until these numbers are published, major funds are avoiding adding more risk. 3. Uncertainty around the Federal Reserve The market is focused on the December 10 meeting and the possible replacement of Powell. Even though rate cuts are expected in the future, many investors prefer to wait for official decisions before taking positions. 4. Cooling of the AI rally The tech sector is correcting. High costs and concerns about overvaluation have pushed the MSCI Tech index into negative territory for the first time in seven months. 5. Weakness in China China’s manufacturing sector has contracted again. This is weighing on the entire Asian market and increasing caution among global investors.
Lately, I’ve learned that you shouldn’t “fall in love” with projects.
You have to keep one thing in mind: the market has changed. It’s no longer like before, when you found a good project, bought it, waited, and made your %. I think now you need to look for short- and mid-term projects. The only long-term coins are BTC and ETH.
I say this because I’ve had quite big losses due to this mistake. But what matters is learning so you don’t repeat it in the future.
A lot of long positions have piled up on $BTC and $ETH.
According to Coinglass, many traders are aggressively entering long positions, which increases the risk of mass liquidations if the market moves sharply.
If $BTC drops to around $81,600, more than $8.1 billion in long positions could be liquidated.
If $ETH falls to around $2,690, long liquidations could reach about $4.5 billion.