零下十三度

All fans of Shisan:
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Shisan's status is not big, so the platform's rebate ratio for me is not very high, 30% is already the limit.
If you have a large trading volume and many contracts, registering with Shisan's link is the best choice.

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Regarding the messages from my friends in the image below, my reply is as follows:
Hello, there may have been too many people at the time, and some messages might have been missed. I talked to everyone in the group and said that if I didn't reply, please ask again. I apologize for any bad experience this may have caused. The Shisan Circle might not be the highest quality circle, but it is definitely the most pragmatic one. Many principles, I have clearly stated in my articles. If you didn't withdraw at that time and continued to stay, asking more about Shisan, perhaps the results would have been different. The community went through many ups and downs at that time, with competitors intentionally paying to disrupt, and some friends undermining the group, even maliciously defaming and recruiting while Shisan's WeChat was inoperable. A complete novice, referring to other bloggers' suggestions for various strategies to recruit, forced Shisan Circle to face a major migration. Many friends heavily invested in new coins listed on Binance. These coins were indeed recommended by Shisan for new investments, but my clear advice was to enter and exit quickly, take profits, and not hold long-term positions exceeding 1% of your total investment. This year, the cryptocurrency market suffered a sharp decline, with Ethereum dropping from 4000 to 1300. These friends faced difficulties and criticism in various situations. Therefore, being a blogger is quite challenging; the correct investment theories you mentioned are hard for people to accept. Those who do accept often remain silent, while those who cannot accept will complain after losing money. However, Shisan Circle has always adhered to the principle of minimizing investment risk and does not engage with any fan funds, which is why you can still see Shisan and it hasn't disappeared from the internet. In fact, there are no regrets. When Shisan first entered the circle, I was just like you, unable to accept correct opinions and fond of high-risk investments, resulting in severe losses. This is a stage that everyone in the cryptocurrency world must go through. Losing money is not scary; what’s scary is losing without gaining any investment experience. As long as you don’t leave the circle, there is plenty of time ahead. If you know how to invest, the path ahead will be much smoother, and the money lost will eventually be earned back.

Shisan and the team will seriously reflect on why newcomers to the cryptocurrency world feel this indifference. From my personal perspective, I have made every effort to respond to everyone's various questions and hope that friends in the Shisan Circle will leave me a message with any questions in the future, and I will definitely respond seriously.

Recently, the sluggish market has indeed created a huge psychological shadow for everyone.
You can take a look at the bloggers you follow; almost no one tells you that the market will rise.
Most are saying that Bitcoin will drop to 70,000 or even start with 60.
The market is filled with expectations of a market crash, and thirteen has read almost all the news articles in the market today.
Retail investors almost unanimously see a downturn, including 90% of bloggers.
So it sends a signal to all retail investors that Bitcoin will drop to 70,000 or even 60,000.
Therefore, even though it is a good time to enter the market, retail investors dare not act and only choose to sell.
Those watching from the sidelines are even more afraid to enter the market, fearing losses.
So when will they actually enter the market? The more it drops, the less likely they are to enter; only when the market rises above 120,000 will they hesitantly enter.
This may just be human nature.
Thirteen sometimes wonders, who implanted the concept of inevitable decline in the minds of retail investors?
Of course, the market can indeed drop, but the current probability of believing it will drop has already reached over 80% in the subconscious.
This cannot help but make people alert.
Let's take a look at what institutions are locking in now?
Retail investors are exiting, while institutions are quietly and slowly bottom-fishing.
Mainstream institutions like BlackRock and Side Strategy are quietly bottom-fishing, but this on-chain data is drowned in the emotions of the crash.
Thirteen is very familiar with this feeling; when retail investors panic collectively, and institutions are quietly bottom-fishing, the market trend is very healthy.
A bull market is also just around the corner.
This round of the bull market has been very struggling; after the change of the trader, the trading methods have obviously become more sophisticated.
Of course, will Bitcoin drop to 80,000? It is very possible, so everyone must not be certain that it will rise just because of the content above from thirteen.
Thirteen just firmly believes that the bull market is still here; as for how the trader operates and where it will spike in the future, no one can predict that.
You also cannot short based on the crash remarks of some people; if you do, you will suffer a very miserable defeat.

Keep it up, crypto community,
Welcome to follow thirteen, let’s traverse the bull and bear market together and see through the red dust of the crypto world.

The market has rebounded somewhat, and many positive voices have emerged in the market.
However, the current market has reached a terrifying bottom, making it absolutely impossible for retail investors to buy at the bottom; most are desperately fleeing.
If the majority of retail investors feel this way, then the wisest choice now may not be to cut losses and exit, but rather to persist under controllable risk in their positions.
The Federal Reserve has been approved to engage in zero-risk cryptocurrency intermediary services, meaning that legally, banks have started to treat cryptocurrencies just like US dollars, providing intermediary services and earning fees from it.
On the surface, this seems to guarantee profits for banks.
However, behind the banks are massive funds, and the cryptocurrency market is indeed pitifully small compared to the entire financial sector.
Although we, as cryptocurrency enthusiasts, are quite lively.
In the face of traditional funds, we are truly insignificant; only by opening the business channels between banks and the cryptocurrency market will funds continuously flow into the cryptocurrency space.
More crucially, banks engaging in intermediary services means that the cryptocurrency market has entered mainstream investment channels.
Cryptocurrencies have already acquired long-term commercial value, rather than being something we perceive as shameful.
Many people are currently quite conflicted, fearing losses but also fearing making too much money.
Making too much money can be a hassle; some people tremble at just being asked about it, deep down believing it to be illegal.
In fact, there is no need to worry; as long as you are not involved in scams and address issues factually, your money cannot be taken away by anyone.
Therefore, the future prospects of cryptocurrencies are very bright.

Lan Zhanfei was robbed in South Africa.
Most of it was transferred in the form of cryptocurrency, and basically, it has disappeared without a trace.
Shisan has always told everyone that money should not be flaunted; even if you are wealthy, you must keep a low profile and not show off everywhere.
In this world, there is a serious hatred for the rich, and you never know when bad things might come your way.
The New Year is approaching, and many people are raising money to buy luxury cars just to show off for a few days in front of relatives and friends.
Is there any need for that?
To this day, my family thinks I am working in a factory every day tightening screws, and they even told me that if I run out of food, I can ask them for living expenses.
Compared to my other siblings who appear to be doing well in the eyes of the elders, I do feel uncomfortable, but only I know that I am doing better than them.
At least Shisan doesn’t have to worry about a few tens of thousands of dollars; he can take it out anytime.
Even this time, for the yu7 that Shisan has changed, he plans not to go home for the New Year, but to return with the old Gulu stick.
Once you establish a wealthy image in the eyes of others, you are indeed showing off, and your vanity is greatly satisfied, but the troubles that follow will be endless.
After showing off, if relatives come to borrow money, will you lend it?
Poor people don’t have this worry.
During this extraordinary period, everyone should live their own lives well and let go of your pathetic vanity.

In recent days, the market has been fluctuating around 90000, and many people have completely given up now.
The most common question asked these days is whether we are in a bear market now and if there will be any opportunities ahead?
Should we cut losses and exit the market, and so on.
Actually, no one can answer this question clearly. Thirteen firmly believes that the bull market is still here, but what positions we will fall to on the way to the bull market? No one knows.
So we can only prepare for both scenarios. After all, if Bitcoin really experiences a sharp drop before the bull market arrives, many people's mindset will definitely explode, and they will be unable to resist cutting losses and exiting.
This may be the biggest tragedy of investing in cryptocurrencies.
Instead of being overly concerned about gains and losses, it's better to prepare for both scenarios in advance:
The first approach is to reduce position risk by clearing leverage when the rebound happens, and finding ways to manage on your own. If there are losses, then you have to act accordingly, as you must pay the price for your greed.
Reducing position risk is usually achieved by decreasing the holding ratio and increasing the cash ratio, cleaning up leverage, and embracing Bitcoin.
This first approach is generally used to cope with sharp market declines.
The second approach is to maintain a certain proportion of positions, which is the opposite of the first approach, used to prepare for a bull market. If the market takes off directly, we won’t miss out completely.
Of course, if we do miss out, it’s not a problem. As long as the upward trend is confirmed, we can still enter from the right side, though the cost will be higher.
In short, you need to be sure that if an extreme crash happens in the crypto space and we enter a bear market, you can still sleep peacefully, so you can thrive in the crypto world for a long time.
Once you fixate on short-term market conditions, you will be left with nothing by the market manipulators.

This morning at 7 o'clock, a sudden wave of crashes began, causing everyone to feel a heavy blow of a thousand points again.
Many people have already started cursing everywhere. Thirteen received a message criticizing them, saying that if Thirteen had taken positions, and accidentally opened a long, this wave would have made Thirteen burst with frustration.
It's estimated that Thirteen will be seen as a scammer by these people.
These types of investors only care about short-term fluctuations and can't see the farther poetry and dreams.
To put it bluntly, they are short-sighted and lack the most basic understanding of investment.
Investment is inherently a high-risk activity, but they believe it is a stable income; once they buy, they must profit, and it must be in the short term, believing the market can only rise and not fall.
If it drops, they will cut losses and claim they were deceived.
In fact, everyone can look back at this year's trends; Ethereum hit a low of 1300, and even after dropping so much, it is still at 2800.
Bitcoin's Thirteen's average holding cost, aside from those who entered later, is basically below 80,000, with most people even lower.
Many believe that as long as they follow Thirteen, they must accurately predict short-term price movements.
Sorry, Thirteen does not have that ability; Thirteen can only ensure that everyone can make money over a time scale, such as during bull and bear cycles.
In the short term, however, Thirteen cannot predict price movements, and no one in this circle can either.
Everyone can take a look at those who trade contracts; the current situation is dire.
According to the current market trend, more and more people will become bearish, and at some point in the future, the market will suddenly surge.
Just like this morning, when all leveraged positions were liquidated in a short time.
Thirteen firmly believes that the more the market falls, the closer we are to the start of a bull market.

Short-term market trends are unpredictable, but Thirteen still remains optimistic in the long term. I hope everyone can stay confident.
When the market is bad, we can actually take more rest.
Thirteen is a spot trader; no matter how much it falls, Thirteen is not afraid.

What will the market trend look like next?
Currently, the market has moved out of a slight fluctuation range and has formed a breakout.
However, the market has still not exited the downward trend, and everyone should not think that a small rebound means a rise has started.
The price range for reducing positions has already been provided.
As of now, the entire market is bearish, leading to a larger number of short positions.
Their judgment basis is very simple, purely technical, as all support lines have been broken, resulting in a massive accumulation of short positions in the market.
From the current trend, it remains unclear, and the possibility of continuing to break down is very high, so we should not take risks at this moment.
Do not heavily invest in bottom fishing; a small amount of regular investment each day is sufficient.
If the market directly reaches the 100,000 range in about a week, the massive short positions in the market will cause a bloodbath.
This capital will all turn into fuel for the rise, pushing the market to soar even higher.
Of course, this is idealistic; we cannot bet on things that have not happened. We must stick to ourselves, take one step at a time, and minimize risks while navigating the crypto space.
Keep it up, crypto enthusiasts,
Welcome to follow Shisan, let's traverse the bull and bear markets together and see through the complexities of the crypto world.

Of course, Shisan also knows that many people are worried about the bear market, which has caused them to lose their appetite and sleep.
This situation is basically caused by being over-leveraged.
For this part of friends, Shisan sincerely suggests reducing your positions to a level where you can sleep at night.
However, reducing positions is also a technical task; everyone can wait for a wave of market rebound, Bitcoin can reach between 95~98.
Anyway, the probability of Bitcoin reaching this position is extremely high.
Whether it's a bear market or a bull market, a bear market often experiences a rebound after a sharp decline; everyone can pull the Fibonacci, which usually reaches the 0.5 position.
This range happens to be 95~98.
You can reduce your positions in this range.
Of course, you must take responsibility for your investment choices; don’t end up in a situation where the market takes off into a bull market, and you’re left feeling anxious.
Starting to blame Shisan for giving you bad advice.
This is your personal choice.
However, Shisan will not reduce positions at this level, because Shisan's positions are currently very healthy, still around 60~70%.
In fact, Shisan has been continuously DCAing these days, although the amount is very small.
Investing is about betting on high probability actions; the probability of entering a bear market does exist, but it is not high, so Shisan will not give up the bull market returns for a low probability event.
Of course, even if we enter a bear market, Shisan has prepared an escape route for himself.
Bread, ham sausages, and instant noodles have been prepared for 4 years, so I won’t starve.
A few years later, I will be a good man again.
So the investment methodology that Shisan mentioned in the article is actually to allow you to come and go freely, enabling you to survive in the cryptocurrency circle.

Welcome to follow Shisan, let’s be the eternal tortoises in the cryptocurrency circle together.

Many people believe that a bear market has arrived.
No matter how Shisan comforts, everyone is extremely panicked, and many people are experiencing symptoms of insomnia.
In the past few days, Shisan has been able to sleep at any time, falling asleep as soon as he gets to bed.
Speaking of the numbers on the books, Shisan has also lost a lot, enough to buy several Yu7s.
Am I not heartbroken? Yes, I am.
But I just don't feel it, because Shisan has experienced too many moments of despair in the cryptocurrency world, even being in debt for millions when I first entered.
Even more so during the wave in 2017, where the account funds were directly wiped out.
Shisan has gone through these pains and despairs multiple times, so the current Shisan invests very cautiously, not seeking to get rich quickly, but rather to slowly build wealth step by step.
Right now, with this fluctuation, Bitcoin has dropped 35 points from its peak, which is actually not the largest drop in the crypto world.
It can only be said that it is relatively fierce; for many bullish contract investors, this round of decline may be disastrous.
But for those of us who have been in the Shisan circle, it can only be said that the numbers on the books have just decreased a bit.
So what is there to worry about?
Has the bear market arrived?
Shisan believes that the probability of a bull market is still 80%.
In Shisan's many years in the cryptocurrency world, there has never been a time when we directly entered a bear market under the current circumstances.
If we directly enter a bear market from now, the market makers will hardly make any money; at most, they will just be cutting each other.
Moreover, apart from a few mainstream coins, other altcoins have been in a bear market and have never entered a bull market.
At least so far, only the bull markets of mainstream coins like Bitcoin, Sol, and BNB have never been seen before.

With so much money, I won't be a blogger anymore

In recent days, the market has continued to decline, and today it seems to have stabilized a bit.
Many people have been criticizing Shisan lately, as he continues to promote the likelihood of a bull market, while most believe that we are already in a bear market.
As a result, they have liquidated their positions, and now seeing Shisan rambling here, they can't hold back and directly attack him.
Some even say that Shisan is utterly evil, claiming that he has caused people to go bankrupt?
I can't believe it, how could it come to this? Shisan Yinga is considered one of the most despicable investment strategies in the square; given the current situation, according to our investment strategy, this is just a small situation.

Everyone has the right to judge future trends, and Shisan is merely expressing his judgment based on personal understanding in written form.
Since you believe it’s a bear market, then liquidating your positions is your personal right.
And Shisan's insistence on holding 60-70% of his positions is also my personal right. I hope friends in the Shisan circle can do the same, after all, we all went through the bull and bear markets together with Shisan.
If you operate blindly, chasing highs and selling lows, and end up losing money, don’t go around criticizing others; take a moment to reflect on yourself.
Why do you always lose money while some people remain unshaken in the cryptocurrency world?

Thirteen, [2025-11-20 23:10]
In the cryptocurrency world, those who make money are often those who endure long-term pain. They will experience prolonged periods and many times of significant drops, with their funds halved.
But as long as you persist until the end and survive in this market, you will share profits with the market makers.
When our strength cannot match that of the market makers, we should not mimic their operations. Many people follow the whale addresses, sometimes making money, sometimes losing, but in the end, it is always a loss.
Investment must have its own logic and not be influenced by others.,
Thirteen, [2025-11-20 23:15]
Especially in the current context of extreme market panic, many people have started to cut losses and leave the market, even some of the Thirteen circle friends are preparing to give up.
Once the seed of panic is sown, it will take root and sprout.
Especially for many who are using leverage to go long, their current days are like hell. Thirteen has also experienced this, and it is indeed very painful, even though Thirteen only opened a 3x leverage, the result was still a complete liquidation.
The investment experience that Thirteen shares in this article has been earned through real financial losses.
Today, a friend who left me a message asked a key question: what should I do if I have leverage in hand?
This can be determined based on your own situation. If you hold Bitcoin or Ethereum, you can add margin to move the liquidation price down to a level that is unlikely to be liquidated.
If it is other altcoins, except for SOL and BNB, you can wait for a pullback and set a stop loss at a bearable position.
Thirteen, [2025-11-20 23:18]
But remember, whether you continue to hold or set a stop loss, you must take responsibility for your choices, learn from experiences, and enhance your investment ability in the cryptocurrency world.
Do not regret cutting losses when the market rebounds and blame those who gave you advice; do not have a completely exploded mindset after stubbornly holding on while the market continues to drop, causing significant losses and leaving the cryptocurrency world.
If you have such behaviors, it indicates that your investment in the cryptocurrency world has failed.
Price fluctuations occur frequently in the cryptocurrency world. If you only focus on the road beneath your feet and cannot see the beautiful scenery in the distance, then putting your money in a bank fixed deposit is the best choice.

Keep it up, brothers.
The market is tough, but we will endure together.

Currently, it seems to be the worst time on the surface, but little do we know, it is likely to be the best time.
Recently, MicroStrategy spent 835 million USD to acquire 8,178 bitcoins.
This is the confidence of a big player.
They are not panicking, so why should we?
Of course, many whales are choosing to sell; each whale has a different investment strategy, especially during this round of decline, many are due to whale arbitrage.
This has given many people information that a bear market is coming, and whales are starting to run away.
In fact, it is not so; if you all know that a bear market is coming, then the bear market will definitely not return.
The real bear market, when you feel it, it is already too late to escape.
Of course, it does not mean that it is completely impossible to enter a bear market now; thirteen believes there is a 10% chance of entering a bear market.
That’s why thirteen will adopt a relatively conservative and safe investment strategy.
Even if we enter a bear market, I can endure it; it’s just a matter of waiting a few more years, I have already arranged my life for the next 4 years.
Every day three large buns + a bottle of mineral water.
After 4 years, after hardship comes happiness, I will regain a prosperous life.
But thirteen cannot give up the 90% bull market because of this 10% probability.
Investment is about the probability of investment; what we should pay the most attention to now is how to adjust our mindset.
If it continues to decline, can you bear it? This is very crucial.
So, investment is tormenting for most of the time, especially in the cryptocurrency circle.
But the remaining small portion of the time is our chance to turn things around.
As people in the cryptocurrency circle, we should pay attention to whether we are still alive when this small portion of time comes and do everything we can to make more money.
Then do not be greedy and decisively exit.
Look, it’s very simple, but indeed counterintuitive; when there is a sharp decline, people will panic, and during a sharp rise, people will be greedy.
It is precisely because of these human natures that we incur losses during the investment process.
I hope everyone is doing well and does not lose confidence.
Right now may be the worst time, but it is indeed the best time, especially for those investors who have not entered the circle; it is undoubtedly an excellent time to enter.

Today we continue to face a sharp decline, with Bitcoin dropping by as much as 5 points, terrifyingly so, even falling below the 90,000 mark.
The entire market has plunged into extreme panic.
Today, a fan from the Thirteen Circle couldn't hold on and left a message for Thirteen, asking if we have entered a bear market.
On the contrary, Thirteen believes this wave might be the last golden pit before the bull market kicks off.
Regardless of how the market falls, at least our friends in the Thirteen Circle are not using leverage, holding only spot positions, primarily in mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Moreover, with our reasonable position control, though this wave of decline is indeed hard to bear, our losses are incredibly light compared to the entire crypto circle.
Thirteen can almost manage not to look at the market now; if it weren't for work reasons, I might hardly pay attention to the market at all.
I hope everyone can continue to persevere; those with cash positions can continue to dollar-cost average at the bottom.

There are links below, and there is an invitation code. The commission is automatic + manual.

Yesterday's article just mentioned that there might be another wave of a big drop, and then the starting point of the bull market will be getting closer.
My crow's mouth, and today it continues to drop.
Now it can be said that the entire market is in panic.
To be honest, the investors in this round of the market are the most unfortunate, never experiencing the scenery at the top of the mountain, always struggling at the bottom.
After several rounds, people are exhausted.
Everyone can take a look at the current liquidity of retail investors in the market; it can basically be said to be non-existent.
Retail investors now basically won't buy in except for panic selling of chips, not to mention frequent trading.
Previously, a group of investors who insisted on contract trading have now been harvested several times and are left without even their underwear.
The current market has once again entered a frozen period due to the decline; at this time, the fluctuations of the market are basically completely controlled by the big players.
When all conditions are preparing to increase market liquidity, you suddenly conclude that a bear market has come due to a wave of decline in the crypto circle, which is obviously an irresponsible performance.
This has caused many confused newcomers to panic excessively.
Now, there are very few messages from the thirteen airplane asking about the market; most are asking whether we have entered a bear market and whether we should clear our positions.
Thirteen has to pick up the old business again, one by one, to recharge everyone's faith. Previously, when Ethereum dropped to 1200, Thirteen was doing this every day, and now it has started again.
Many people say they hope to withstand this wave.
Thirteen wants to ask, do we need to endure?
Friends in the Thirteen circle, the cost of mainstream coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB is at a very low position; what do you need to endure?
It's just that the profits are a little less.
In crypto investments, the most important thing is mindset; you must adjust yourself well.



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The scale of the cryptocurrency market is not large; on the contrary, compared to traditional financial markets, it can only be described as a drop in the ocean.
Just a small amount flowing out from the US stock market is enough to stir up huge waves in the cryptocurrency market.
Therefore, it is absolutely impossible for the cryptocurrency market to remain isolated while the entire financial market is on the verge of an explosion, to independently start a wave of行情 and enter a bear market.
Currently, major capital markets show no signs of entering a bear market.
On the contrary, looking at the overall situation, it is still in a bear market cycle.
For example, in the cryptocurrency market, we have only seen a few minority coins like Bitcoin, BNB, and SOL, which have experienced a significant increase this round, giving us the impression that we have already gone through a bull market.
If you think seriously, you will find that besides these few minority coins, 99.9% of the entire market is still in a bear market cycle.
And it is still at the very bottom of the bear market range.
At this time, you tell me that we are entering a bear market; for altcoins, I haven't even experienced the feeling of a bull market, always being in a bear market, and you tell me the bear market is going to continue, and the severity will double...
What should altcoins think? For instance, DOT, ADA, LINK, and UNI, these coins with definite value, have very strong fundamentals.
You tell me to enter a bear market on the current basis; these coins have averaged dropped over 90% compared to their peak.
What further room is there for decline?
Therefore, whether the market enters a bear market still depends on the macroeconomic environment, as I mentioned in my article yesterday, it is not decided by mere words or a cold line.


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Today I saw someone say that if Bitcoin drops to 9.4, it can be confirmed that we have entered a bear market.
Someone asked if this is true?
Any investment market is not measured by specific points; it needs to be determined by macroeconomic conditions and investor sentiment.
As long as the market has liquidity, it will rise; if liquidity is withdrawn, it will fall.
Currently, the global economy is actually quite tough, which is why countries have agreed to implement loose monetary policies, with the aim of increasing market liquidity. As long as liquidity increases, investor sentiment will improve.
Various assets will rise.
This is a very simple principle. If you insist on drawing a line saying that if it breaks this position, it confirms that we have entered a bear market, that is simply nonsense.
Now Bitcoin has already dropped to the beginning of 95, and it is very easy to push it down to 94. If you thus determine that a bear market has come and sell off all your assets, then I believe that is not a wise choice.
Of course, you can continue to reduce your position based on 70% of your holdings, but the consequences of liquidating your position may be something you cannot bear.
If the market jumps back, I personally believe that the possibility of this happening is very high, which means you definitely won't want to exit the crypto space and will have to buy back at high prices, and the final outcome is bound to not be good.
So whether or not there will be a bear market, do not simply look at one line; this thing is dead. If the market generally believes that this line will make it think we have entered a bear market, then as a major player, they will certainly push the market down below this line.


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