鬼谷研究院

Shock!!! Such a big event happened in the crypto world??

Brothers, good morning. Over the past few days, I've reminded everyone to buy the dip.
Today, the market welcomes a big rebound.
BTC stands above $89000,
Meanwhile, gold breaks through $5200.

Recently, the Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts, and the path to resuming cuts is still unclear. At the same time, the U.S. military has initiated a multi-day air exercise in the Middle East, and the progress of strikes against Iran has been communicated to Israel.
In this situation, BTC did not crash, which indicates that things are starting to change: BTC is gradually beginning to achieve results on the path to becoming digital gold.

Currently, central banks and sovereign wealth funds in various countries are shifting from U.S. debt to gold. Gold is now the second largest currency, but it is not easy to carry and has issues related to its high market value. This will lead some large capital to gradually lay out BTC.

From on-chain data, BTC has fallen sharply since October, and reserves in exchanges are declining over the past three months. Therefore, we are optimistic about BTC's market in 2026, which could rise to $150,000.

Anyway, breaking new highs is not a problem.
The recent strategy is to buy the dip in BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, etc., and wait for a big surge. Do not lose your bottom chips.
Invest regularly in BTC while waiting for a turnaround, and small funds can play with memes.

The second day of a new week, today gold and silver have surged across the board, is a bigger storm coming?

Gold has risen 15% so far this year, it's simply insane.
I reminded everyone to buy gold six months ago.
Last week I told everyone to get into gold, and now it has made over 10% profit.

In the midst of Trump's crazy antics,
we are now facing two major changes.

(1) Major Change
We might be on the brink of a third world war.

Recently, a US aircraft carrier has entered the range of Iran, and the clouds of war are thickening in the Middle East!
Various signs indicate that the US may take military action, and they have evacuated non-essential personnel from some regional bases.
Iranian officials claim that their armed forces are on full alert.
At the same time, the US government is reportedly considering implementing a maritime blockade on Cuban oil imports.

Previously, the US forcibly controlled Venezuela's leader Maduro, and Trump mentioned wanting to seize Greenland.
Last week, Trump insulted the rocket launcher sweeping Davos, and core allies were insulted in succession!
The Western alliance is starting to fracture.
Details of the first round of talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine have been disclosed, and there is still no consensus on territorial issues.
Negotiations will continue a week later, and it is estimated that fighting will continue.

(2) Major Change
We are at the beginning of a global debt crisis.

The market is increasingly worried about the US government continuing to print money,
Trump's chosen Federal Reserve Chairman will continue to inject liquidity after taking office.
Latest data shows that the proportion of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen below 60%.
In this context, where will BTC go?

I feel somewhat optimistic; the trend is to fall first and then rise,
it reflects as such at the moment.
Gold is no longer moving, and some funds will be allocated to BTC.

Last week, ETFs kept flowing out, Coinbase exchange had a negative premium,
but BTC did not drop much, reflecting its resilience.
However, BTC's path to becoming digital gold will take some time; the road is winding.
From the perspective of a 1-2 year investment return rate, regular investment in BTC is a good choice.

Germany holds the second-largest national gold reserves in the world, second only to the United States.
Among them, about 164 billion euros worth of gold, weighing 1236 tons, is stored in New York.
Now they are uneasy and want to bring the gold back, but what if Trump doesn't allow it?
This is where BTC's advantages come into play: decentralization, no physical existence.

Recent strategy: Regularly invest in BTC and wait for a turning point.

Same day 🙋🏻‍♂️

$RIVER Waking up at 70, sent also finished at 0.30, the coins listed by Binance recently are very powerful, feeling great
The current market situation is confusing, what should be the next step?
Will there be a major crash? Now is the time to escape.
Or will there be a big surge? Is it appropriate to buy the dip now?

Last week, after issuing a bearish warning about the market, I reminded everyone to buy gold, target $5000
Now the gold price has risen to $4970, approaching the target price.
Partial profit-taking can be done, wait for the price to drop before buying again.

Currently, central banks around the world are continuously and massively absorbing physical gold, estimated to rise to around $6000 in 2026.
Chuanzi is still crazily causing events, verbally cooling down saying no fighting, but the US military aircraft carriers are quietly pressuring Iran.
There is still a possibility of action against Iran in the future; if it happens (probability 40%), BTC may drop by 5%.

We need to be prepared for a potential drop, no more buying altcoins, exchange the altcoins in hand for BTC or directly liquidate.
NATO officials stated that there has been a breakthrough on the Greenland issue,
The negotiation focus has shifted to broader security issues in the Arctic region, so the Greenland issue will not continue to cause a drop in the near future.

The Chuanzi family has been buying BTC at the bottom, there must be their reasons.
Every time Chuanzi creates bearish conditions, part of the reason may be to buy at the bottom for family interests, creating entry opportunities.
Additionally, BTC continues to flow out of exchanges, so bullish outlook for 2026.

But we need to wait until these issues are resolved before a large-scale rebound can occur:
(1) Resolution of the Iran issue, whether to strike or not, comes to a conclusion
(2) The next Chairman of the Federal Reserve will be announced soon, this person is likely to be favorable for interest rate cuts

Note to buy on dips, not on rises, consider sustainable dollar-cost averaging into BTC, and be careful not to buy altcoins
Wait for the market to rebound in February, with a chance to return to $100,000.

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123

Why do poor people lose more in the stock market?

Because they simply can't wait. Rich people have 10 million in their accounts; seizing a good opportunity and making 10% means earning 1 million. But the poor only have 100,000; even if they gain 10,000, it won't fill the gaps in their lives. Thus, they trade desperately, looking for opportunities every day, and in the end, they end up losing more and more.

What truly destroys them is not the market, but the pressure of life combined with the anxiety of trading. They mistakenly believe that trading is like working a job, where they must make money every day to survive.

However, the rhythm of experts is never about winning every day, but rather about fighting once every three years, and getting fully satisfied from that one battle. When the trend comes, they strike with all their might, and after the tide recedes, they practice in empty positions.

🏆Guigu Morning Report 1.19

Good afternoon, brothers,
Yesterday we clearly reminded everyone to pay attention to risks,
Today the market has directly entered a sharp decline mode, I hope everyone listened.

The reason for the decline is the same as we predicted,
The trigger came from Trump, who threatened to impose a 10% tariff on 8 European countries to secure Greenland.

EU representatives held an emergency meeting yesterday,
Their attitude was tough, firmly defending the sovereignty of Greenland and Denmark.
The confrontation between Europe and America is escalating, leading to a crash in the cryptocurrency market!

How to look at the next steps:

1. Pay attention to whether the US and Europe continue to escalate tariffs/countermeasures. If signs of easing appear, consider gradually increasing positions; if conflicts escalate again, continue to maintain a wait-and-see attitude.

2. The market liquidity is relatively weak, more suitable for regular investment in Bitcoin; small funds can participate in Memecoin and interactive airdrop operations.

Last night A7, today A0

All witches were directly hacked by the domain
The dog house is still a dog

Half-time champagne？？？？🐵

[🏋️🏻‍♂️]Guigu Morning News 1.18

Good afternoon, brothers. The market is rebounding strongly,
two negative factors have appeared again.
Are we going to see a big drop next week?

First, Chuanzi is causing trouble.
He threatened to impose a 10% tariff on 8 European countries to achieve the goal of purchasing Greenland.
He said if Greenland is not sold to the United States, then starting from February 1, a 10% tariff will be imposed.
If it still isn’t sold by June 1, the tariff will increase to 25%.
Wow, the world is completely chaotic!
This is simply coercion through military and economic means.
The risk is rising sharply, better to buy some gold to protect assets, the U.S. stock market is likely to drop significantly on Monday.

Secondly, Coinbase is causing trouble.
The Clarity Act, which is positive for the crypto world, has been unilaterally opposed by Coinbase.
The White House is outraged by Coinbase's unilateral actions and is considering withdrawing support for the Clarity Act.
This brings another negative factor.
Last week, institutions bought over 1 billion USD of BTC,
if there are no negative factors next week, it will still rise, but there may be minor negatives.

What should we do next?
(1) Don't buy altcoins, they won't perform in this market; you can short altcoins like Bera that surge wildly.
(2) Buy and hold gold, hold patiently. When the cannon fires, gold will rise significantly; sell when it reaches $5000.
(3) Besides holding BTC, keep some bullets; I am optimistic in the long term, but there is pressure in the short term, and we cannot stay in cash.

......

Market Analysis 1.15

Brothers, good afternoon! These past few days have been comfortable.
We've been reminding everyone to buy the dip when BTC dropped to around $80,000, and those who held on have been rewarded steadily.
Meanwhile, several meme coins from yesterday delivered excellent returns, with the highest reaching 4 times.
BTC has now broken through the resistance level of $94,000,
and after a week or two of consolidation, it's expected to return to $100,000 by the end of January.

Also, the major risk we mentioned two days ago has been resolved:
Zhangzi said he received assurances from Iran, so he has no intention of resolving the issue militarily.
With the risk removed, the outlook for future market performance is positive.

On-chain data shows that over 20,000 BTC have been bought and withdrawn recently.
The big players are still accumulating and buying at the bottom.
This recent drop has forced many to sell at the bottom in panic.
By the time BTC reaches $100,000+, many may still be unaware and wonder if they can still get on board.
In fact, the rise from $80,000 to $100,000 is already a 20% increase.

The big players have been accumulating heavily between $80,000 and $90,000. BTC should return to new highs before June.
We just need to wait. Meanwhile, prepare a small position to follow BitEagle in playing meme coins.

It's very simple to ruin a young person.
First, let them earn some money.
Then, take away their wealth in another way.
Inflate their ambition while bringing their execution ability to the lowest. They will then live their life in a daze every day.

It has been a few months since I got my $UXLINK, and it's finally about to take off. The official team released a proposal, and after looking at the core

The meaning is that UXLINK is profitable, and the token price needs to be managed well. Now, we need to truly bind the idea of 'making money' with $UXLINK.

👉 In the past, everyone complained about many Web3 projects having users, revenue, and growth, but not much connection to the tokens.

This time, UXLINK is responding positively to this issue.

Every month, using project profits, at least 1% of $UXLINK will be repurchased and placed into the strategic reserve pool.
This is not just a slogan; it's a sustainable mechanism.

This releases several important signals:

1️⃣ The project really has cash flow.
If there are no stable profits, no one would dare to mention 'monthly repurchase'; this in itself is confidence.

2️⃣ Directing the 'infrastructure value' towards the token.
UXLINK is originally the foundation of social + user relationship layers, and now it clearly states:
👉 The longer users and the ecosystem run,
👉 The more the system earns,
👉 The more support the token has.

3️⃣ It's not a one-time benefit but a long-term expectation.

1% may not seem exciting, but 'monthly + continuous + written into governance' is more important than a one-time repurchase.

In simple terms:

UXLINK does not want to just be an 'infrastructure that everyone uses but the token doesn't increase,'
but is starting to seriously think about how to turn long-term construction into long-term value return.

This step is not flashy but very mature.
For those who truly look long-term, this is a plus.

#UXLINK

☀️ Gui Gu Early Report Market Analysis｜12.23

Brothers, good morning
BTC is at 90,000, still hasn't truly stabilized.

Recently, there are several very obvious characteristics in the market, everyone should be able to feel it:

First, trading volume continues to shrink
Every time it tries to rise, it basically gets smashed down right away,
and the lower it goes, the larger the bottom trading volume becomes, and the more severe the drop.

The underlying reason is actually quite straightforward——

A shrinking trading volume means two things:
1️⃣ There isn't much new money in the market
2️⃣ Those who want to sell have nearly sold out

From a technical perspective, a decline with low volume is often a precursor to a phase of stabilization,
which can actually be a mildly positive signal.

Now looking at the bottom:
The more it falls, the larger the trading volume, what does that indicate?
It indicates that the recent rounds of decline are basically panic selling. Many people are afraid of further drops and choose to liquidate at the lowest positions.

In this structure,
a sudden surge of a large bullish candle is actually more likely than a continued series of sharp declines.

By the way,
many friends around me have recently engaged in Ponzi schemes and have suffered significant losses; to be honest, it's really a pity.
With the same amount of money, if one slowly accumulates BTC or gold, the outcome could be completely different.

Here’s another reminder:
Stay away from Ponzi schemes; the outcome basically has only one—zeroing out and running away. Right now, this market, to put it bluntly, is in a “grinding phase,” and it’s highly likely that it will take 1–2 months* before a decent directional choice emerges. The most important thing in this phase is not action, but patience and restraint.

Don't inadvertently give away the hard-earned money you've made to others.

Guigu Morning Report
Precise Market Analysis 12.18

Brothers, good morning. Some brothers asked why it rose yesterday and then fell back down.
In fact, yesterday's analysis concluded in advance:
The closer we get to the release of the CPI data and Japan's interest rate hike, the more the market panic will amplify,
possibly breaking below $85000.
Tonight at 9:30 the CPI will be released, and after tomorrow's announcement of Japan's interest rate hike.
The market is likely to improve a bit, but how much it improves in the short term is uncertain and depends on the CPI data.
If the CPI is lower than expected, it will be beneficial for interest rate cuts, and we could quickly return to $94000.

After more than 10 years of reckless money printing, the Federal Reserve has fallen into an inescapable death loop:
Cutting interest rates will trigger severe inflation, while maintaining high rates may lead to a deflationary collapse.

Previously we mentioned that Chuanzi needs to prepare for the mid-term elections in November next year,
so they will find ways to lower prices and lower interest rates, which is an inevitable trend.

In addition, the trading volume of BTC by ancient whales and institutions has approached 70%.
From a long-term perspective, this price of BTC is still appropriate; in a volatile market, buy on dips rather than on rises,
regularly investing and bottom-fishing every day is fine.

Today, the altcoins like Stable, MON, and Bera have all fallen sharply; the narrative for public chains can no longer be sustained,
competition is too fierce, with hundreds of public chains having not even 100 users,
there's no need for so many public chains in the world; ETH, BNB chain, and Solana are enough,
so most altcoins are trending towards zero.

It is recommended to focus on holding BTC, avoid panic selling at the bottom,
and keep some bullets ready to bottom-fish when a black swan event occurs.
The market-wide panic is the best time to enter.

The Impact of Japan's Interest Rate Hike on the Cryptocurrency Market

Recently, the possibility of Japan raising interest rates has increased, so how will it affect the cryptocurrency market?
Japan has previously been a low-interest-rate country, with many institutions borrowing money to obtain low-cost yen, investing in high-yield U.S. Treasury bonds to earn interest differentials.
If Japan raises interest rates, the cost of borrowing will increase, leading to no profits, and such transactions will no longer be feasible.
This will result in Japanese institutions selling off U.S. Treasury bonds,
causing U.S. Treasury bond prices to fall and yields to rise,
thereby indirectly creating a slight bearish risk for assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The impact of Japan's interest rate hike is indirect and only affects Japan's domestic financial market.
The influence of the Federal Reserve is greater, and the key to the rise and fall of the cryptocurrency market still depends on the Federal Reserve's policies.
Therefore, the Federal Reserve's policies also depend on economic data, so pay attention to the following events:

Today at 23:00, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will speak;
Tomorrow at 21:15, U.S. November ADP employment figures;
Thursday at 21:30, U.S. initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending November 29 (in ten thousand);
Friday at 23:00, U.S. PCE price index year-on-year;
Friday at 23:00, U.S. December one-year inflation rate forecast initial value;
Friday at 23:00, U.S. December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index initial value.

Guigu Daily Report 11.28

Brothers, good morning. Let's talk about the upcoming market developments.

(1) Has the 4-year cycle ended?
The traditional 4-year cycle has become ineffective. Before it dropped to $80,000 a few days ago, it counted as one cycle. Now we have entered a new cycle.

(2) What are the characteristics of the new cycle?
The new cycle is led by traditional financial institutions, whereas previously it was led by the whales.

The cost for the main players in the new cycle is very high. Previously, the whales had a BTC cost of $1,000, and now the whales, which are various institutions, have a BTC cost of $90,000.

During the new cycle, altcoins are too numerous and mostly worthless. The hype around the technology has also gone bankrupt. Various blockchain altcoins are insignificant compared to AI, which is a real productive force, so it will be very difficult to have an altcoin season in the future.

(3) How to view the new cycle?
The secondary market rhythm of the new cycle has slowed down, while the rhythm of meme coins has become faster. In the past old cycle, the BTC trend was viewed in terms of days and weeks. In the current new cycle, the BTC trend should be viewed in terms of months and half years.

(4) How much can BTC rise in the future?
In 2026, there is a 70% probability it can hit $150,000.
In 2027, it can break $200,000.
The process will be slow, requiring patience.

(5) Can MON be bought?
There are many airdrop dumps, and the heat will fade after a few days. It is still mainly about buying BTC.