币掌柜的加密日记

Macro: Water source has opened (Federal Reserve) Last night, the Federal Reserve confirmed the interest rate cut. Note that monetary policy has a 6-month lag. This means that Q1 2026 will be the moment of the most abundant global liquidity.

🛣️ 2. Technical: Infrastructure is complete (Ethereum) Don't just look at ETH prices, look at the infrastructure. The TVL and TPS of Layer 2 are both hitting historical highs. The blockchain has upgraded from 'dirt road' to 'highway', ready to accommodate trillions of dollars entering the market.

🐳 3. Financial: Major players are rushing (Whales) Just today, 1000 BTC that had been dormant for 14 years was transferred. At this time point, using an old coin that has been dormant for 14 years is likely an institutional over-the-counter (OTC) acquisition. What are they rushing for? They are rushing for tickets for 2026.

💡 Conclusion: Macro provides money, technology provides strength, and major players provide signals. These three forces are resonating.

🧠 Thinking: If we don't talk about the price of coins, what is left for Bitcoin? The answer is: energy hegemony.

🌍 Current situation: The world is facing "electricity hunger." With the exponential explosion of AI model parameters, electricity has become a scarcer resource than chips.

🤝 Trend: We see more and more Bitcoin mining companies (Miners) transforming into HPC (High-Performance Computing) centers. Simply put: previously used electricity to mine coins, now using electricity to support AI.

💎 What does this mean for BTC?

Cost baseline raised: Electricity has become more expensive, mining costs have increased, and the cost price moat of Bitcoin has been elevated.

Risk resistance enhanced: Mining companies have stable cash flow from AI businesses, so there is no rush to sell Bitcoin during bear markets.

Viewpoint: Energy + computing power asset revaluation + reserves + anti-inflation + crossing borders. Holding Bitcoin is actually holding a ticket to enter the future world.

1️⃣ "City Team" enters: Vancouver's mayor proposes to include Bitcoin in the city's reserves!
2️⃣ Key date 12/11: The day after tomorrow! CEOs of major U.S. banks will hold a secret meeting with senators! 🏦 The U.S. FOMC interest rate decision

Does it feel like everyone is rushing in? Are you sure you don't want to sell to these old guys at the "conspiracy must drop" point when the interest rate cut expectations come to fruition?? 👇

New regulations released by Dongda! Can ordinary people still hold Bitcoin?🧐

Summary: ✅ Holding: Compliant (personal property, no legal prohibition) ✅ Technology: Supported (Web3, Metaverse, blockchain applications) ⚠️ Trading: High risk (risk self-borne, law does not provide a safety net) ❌ Business: Red line (do not act as a middleman, do not become an OTC trader)

📝 Key points:

Stablecoins becoming a new focus: USDT has been named, be cautious with deposits and withdrawals recently, protect your bank card credit!

Long-termism: The current environment is not suitable for short-term speculation, but is suitable for deep learning and long-term allocation.

Mindset construction: Regulation is to weed out the “bad money,” what remains is the true “good money.”

Maintain patience and wait for the flowers to bloom.

Post-Drinking Notes (No Investment Advice)\n1: The market is likely to first rebound to the 97,000 or 107,000 range to obtain liquidity and create a 'bull trap', and then inevitably drop towards around 70,000 (the timing is uncertain, just wait).\n\n2. Trading Strategy: Further appropriate short selling when the price falsely rebounds to the 100,000 to 107,000 range.\n\n3. Macroeconomic and Technical Background: The 'death cross' has established a bearish tone, and the FOMC meeting on December 10 will be a catalyst for short-term volatility. If a rate cut expectation is confirmed, the market has already priced that in. If the rate cut does not occur as expected, it will trigger a severe sell-off.

Looking back, Trump doesn't really love cryptocurrency or BTC. It's just political gamesmanship. The future development of Bitcoin depends on the U.S. economy. It is more of a political and financial bargaining chip. It is increasingly irrelevant to retail investors.

What is good and what is bad? It depends on who you compare yourself to. Always live in the present. Happiness, anger, sadness, and joy are all parts of life; trading coins should not be the entirety of life.

The main reasons for the U-price inversion in the cryptocurrency market are that some risk capital is being transferred for cashing out.
1. Regulatory factors, the long-arm jurisdiction of the United States, and China's latest announcement regarding money laundering using stablecoins.

2. The hot money fleeing for cashing out represented by the collapse of the Chen Zhitai Group in the gray and black industrial chain. (The case of Huiwang)

3. The circle is now in such a mess that risk capital won't play with you guys; you all are playing with Trump, aiming to take them down.
$USDT

Keep expecting

$DOGE will evolve into a niche currency in the future, similar to coins, $5, $10. The circulation speed is not high, not fast. But everyone recognizes its value.

Today is truly extraordinary, it really feels like 'in deep waters and fire'. On one side, there’s a massive fire in Hong Kong, and on the other side, our cryptocurrency market is also on fire, and we can barely hold onto our wallets!
1: Massive Fire in Tai Po, Hong Kong
Let's begin with a heart-wrenching incident. A sudden fire broke out in Tai Po, Hong Kong today, and the thick black smoke at the scene is indeed quite frightening. Although we focus on finance and trending topics, safety is always the top priority. I hope our friends in Hong Kong stay safe and try to stay away from dangerous areas.

2: Upbit's 'Ice and Fire' If the fire in Hong Kong was an accident, then what happened at South Korea's largest exchange, Upbit, today is simply a scene from a 'palace drama'.

First, there was a bombshell: South Korean internet giant Naver agreed to acquire Upbit. What does this mean? It's akin to a major company here acquiring a top exchange, which is initially great news, indicating that legitimate players are entering the market, right?

But right after that, the unexpected happened! Just when everyone was preparing to celebrate, news broke that Upbit was hacked. Isn’t that a coincidence? Just as they said they were selling out, the money disappeared? Is this due to advanced hacking skills, or is someone putting on a show? The depths of this situation are too profound. If you have assets on Korean exchanges, make sure to keep an eye on them; safety first.

3: And it’s not over yet; our most commonly used USDT is also causing concern. Today, there was news that USDT was downgraded by institutions. To translate this simply: authoritative institutions believe that the risks associated with USDT have increased. As the 'water' of our cryptocurrency market, if USDT is unstable, it’s not just a matter of whether one can make money, but whether your principal is still intact. Although USDT has weathered many storms, this downgrade is a signal, reminding everyone: never put all your eggs in one basket.

So you see, today’s world, whether real or virtual, is quite turbulent. As the old saying goes: in this uncertain market, surviving is more important than how much you can earn.

My booth is also set up, diagnostic coins, look at coins, assess coin quality. Providing guidance and diagnostic opinions, (Brothers, those with money support financially, those without money support personally. 100U is not too much, not too expensive. Male coin friends look at it stiffly, female coin friends look at it plump.)

Today's Highlights:
The market has dropped for seven consecutive days, and today it closed with a daily candlestick indicating a potential stop in the decline. It is holding at 93,000 and is expected to rebound to 99,000 USD within three days, with hopes of entering an upward trend.

Recommendation: ICP Entry Point: 4.9-5.6 Take Profit Point: 6.9-9.1 Stop Loss Point: 4.6

Weekly orders 89558~87000
~84000 break 84000 stop loss next support level 77000
Recently, the market has been crashing after midnight and rebounding during the day
In one hour, purchasing around 90,000 and exiting at points 93000~94500
Currently, there has been no stop to the decline within the day.

Data: Today's Fear and Greed Index rises to 50, the market shifts to a 'Neutral State'

BNB Asset Management Company Windtree plummets 77%, Nasdaq delists it for non-compliance

Goldman Sachs blockbuster news: "Tens of trillions" will flood into the stablecoin market

Cryptocurrency lobbying group supports Brian Quintenz for CFTC chairman

Chinese renminbi-backed stablecoins may redefine cross-border payments

Bitcoin and Ethereum maintain key levels, demand cools off, CeFi tokens rise

Rapper Kanye West launches Solana-based emoji pack 'YZY'

Powell will deliver a speech this Friday evening, and some traders have lowered their rate cut expectations

Retail sentiment has turned extremely bearish, which may signal a market reversal

Musk has postponed the formation of a new political party and continues to try to maintain contact with Vance

The 30-day Bitcoin options Delta skew has surged, indicating that the market is in a state of extreme panic

In the last 24 hours, $532 million has been liquidated across the network, with Ethereum being the largest liquidated asset

U.S. SEC Chairman: Only a small portion of cryptocurrencies should be considered securities

Tether appoints former White House crypto committee executive director Bo Hines as strategic advisor for digital assets and U.S. strategy

U.S. Treasury Secretary Basent: Will meet with 11 candidates for Federal Reserve Chair

Wyoming launches first state-level stablecoin FRNT, now connected to seven major blockchain networks
Bitcoin falls below $115,000, cryptocurrency liquidation leads to $400 million loss

Due to financial interest review of Trump, SEC delays approval for Truth Social crypto ETF

South Korea demands cryptocurrency exchanges to stop offering lending services#加密市场回调 #ETH质押退出动态观察

Zhaoyin International Securities: Virtual asset trading services have officially launched

After the 51% attack on Monero, the Qubic community voted to target Dogecoin

Reports say Japan is preparing to approve the first yen-backed stablecoin this fall

Metaplanet increases its total Bitcoin holdings to 2.18 billion dollars after the latest round of acquisitions
#ETH质押退出动态观察 #加密市场回调

Today's Fear and Greed Index is 57, still in a 'Neutral State'

Ethereum PoS network exit queue has risen to approximately 888,000 ETH, while the entry queue has decreased to approximately 286,000 ETH

After claiming $3.1 billion from its subsidiary, DCG countersues Genesis, claiming $1.1 billion

Ethereum spot ETF saw an outflow of $59 million, breaking the 8-day record of $3.7 billion in purchases

BitMine and a mysterious whale purchased $882 million worth of Ethereum, while retail investors fell into a panic sell-off#