ElRadardeCesar

🔥📈 #Bitcoin rebounds to 90.4K in a flash movement. What happened?

Today's jump is not magic: it's squeeze + institutional breathing.
After the plunge to 83–84K, the market was loaded with leveraged shorts. When $BTC recovered 88K, the liquidations forced on-chain purchases and pushed the price upwards.

Additionally, there were no new strong sales of ETFs or from the big players during the Asian session. That "silence" allowed for a mini buy the dip from whales and OTC desks, while the 4H RSI came out of oversold and the MA30 acted as a technical trigger.

📌 Insight: This seems like a mechanical rebound, not a new trend. If institutional outflows return, the downward pressure comes back into play.

🚨 BTC and the noise about Tether: what really happened today

Arthur Hayes stated that a 30% drop in BTC could put pressure on Tether due to its ~8B in BTC.
S&P, for its part, rated the stability of USDT as "weak" due to a mix of reserves and limited transparency.

Does this mean insolvency? No.
Tether holds ~139B in cash/bonds (≈80% of liabilities). The risk is liquidity in case of panic, not bankruptcy.

The narrative did its part: fear of forced sales → traders reducing exposure → volatility like 91k → 88k.

Key points: as long as the peg is between 0.999–1.001, there is no red flag.
The rest is noise that the market uses to exaggerate movements.

🚨🇻🇪🇺🇸 VENEZUELA UPDATE – U.S. | AIR CRISIS AND POLITICAL ESCALATION

Trump lit the fuse: HE REQUESTED THAT THE AIRSPACE “OVER AND AROUND VENEZUELA” BE CONSIDERED CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY.

His message was directed at airlines, pilots, and even networks linked to drug trafficking and human trafficking. Immediate result: suspensions and cancellations of flights to/from Venezuela.

But beware: there is no evidence of a formal “air blockade.” Neither the Pentagon nor the White House has published operational directives supporting a real no-fly zone. Today, the measure functions more as geopolitical pressure than as an effective closure.

Caracas reacted: it denounced a violation of sovereignty and accused the U.S. of “state terrorism.” Maduro responded by revoking permits for six international airlines, further aggravating the country’s air disconnection.

Everything occurs amid a greater deterioration:
• The U.S. increased military deployments in the Caribbean under the “anti-drug” package.
• Washington warns of operational risks regarding Venezuela.
• Airlines were already fearing to operate after new security alerts.

In summary: the crisis escalates, air traffic decreases, and both governments raise their tone. There is no declared military blockade, but there is a de facto closure out of fear, pressure, and retaliation. And this could escalate if Washington formalizes the measure or Caracas counters with new restrictions.

We remain vigilant. ✈️🔥

Various users in the U.S. report that #JPMorgan may have limited operations linked to #MicroStrategy #MSTR and exposure to Bitcoin, generating friction with clients seeking to maintain or increase their crypto position.

MSTR today functions as a "proxy" for $BTC, so any restriction is perceived within the ecosystem as a defensive move by traditional banking against the expansion of Bitcoin.

This has prompted an organic response: users moving accounts and operations to brokers and platforms where exposure to BTC is not penalized.

The dominant reading in the sector:
👉 when a financial institution acts as a political actor and not neutral, users choose to move their capital to where crypto adoption faces no barriers.

We continue to monitor if JPMorgan clarifies the situation or adjusts internal policies.

Robert #Kiyosaki now adds #Ethereum to his thesis of 'modern safe-haven assets'.
He compared buying $ETH ETH at ~4,000 USD to having bought BTC at ~4,000 USD, expanding his traditional stance (gold, silver, Bitcoin) towards digital infrastructure.

This is not technical analysis, it's macro narrative:
– Increasing systemic risk.
– Flight from fiat to hard assets.
– ETH as a base layer of digital economic activity.

Such statements do not change fundamentals, but do modify perception of value and potential flows into the network.

📉 The offer of $BTC and $ETH on exchanges continues to fall continuously. When holders withdraw their coins to store them, selling pressure decreases and the market structure becomes more bullish.

This is not an immediate signal of altcoin season, but it is a historical indicator of accumulation and a market preparing for bullish volatility when demand returns.

📊 Key: less liquidity → more price sensitivity.

👀📉 ALSO MT GOX?
In the midst of the market downturn, Mt. Gox moved ~10.6K BTC (~USD 953M) from its cold wallet. The timing is alarming, yes, but be careful: the flow was in a new direction, not towards exchanges, so it does not imply immediate selling. It could be simple internal reorganization prior to future payments.

Mt. Gox still holds 34.6K $BTC (~USD 3.1B). And the key point: payments to creditors are postponed until October 31, 2026. That is, by legal calendar, there is no distribution or massive liquidation happening now.

In summary: big movement, loud noise, but with no clear signal of selling. We are monitoring on-chain, not the panic.

Yesterday, the U.S. Treasury executed a liquidity drain of $285B–$325B, one of the largest of the quarter.
The event was expected, but the impact exceeded forecasts: firm repo, falling reserves, and pressure on financing.

Crypto reacted as an asset dependent on marginal liquidity:
$BTC BTC stable with a pullback, altcoins more volatile, DeFi with rising rates.
Monetary conditions continue to guide market behavior.

🌍 Markets in red, crypto hit harder than the rest.
While global indices recede moderately (Dow -1.49%, S&P500 -1.39%, Nasdaq -1.44%), the most aggressive move of the day came from crypto: #BTC fell below 92,000 USD, amplifying liquidations across the ecosystem.

Commodities also corrected (Gold -1.94%, Silver -2.14%, Copper -1.75%) and the dollar strengthened, reinforcing short-term pressure.

It's not a global crash, but rather a scenario of elevated macro risk, strong dollar, and defensive rotation.
The key for $BTC BTC: maintain 90k and recover 95k–97k to avoid further weakness.

💥 BTC: THE SUPPORTS THAT MATTER TODAY

BTC enters a phase of orderly unloading. No panic, but there are levels to watch:

• $86–88K: immediate support and most likely to be tested. Pending liquidity.
• $82–83K: second stop if the markets remain weak.
• $78–79K: strong support, only with a deeper fall.
• $73–74K: major cycle floor; requires a serious macro event.

Quick reading: the wick towards $86–88K is the most logical scenario. The rest depends on Nasdaq, rates, and whether any negative catalyst appears.

The Radar 🔍

BITCOIN IN CRITICAL ZONE | EXTREME FEAR + ETF OUTFLOWS + TENSE MACRO

BTC enters the week colliding with key supports as sentiment drops to "18 – extreme fear". ETFs continue to drain capital and macro data returns after the shutdown in the U.S.

📉 MA30 and MA200 broken
📉 Weak RSI
📉 Strong institutional outflows

Supports to watch:
→ 92K
→ 88–89K
→ 84.5K

This week everything depends on:
– if they stop the outflows
– if the macro data comes out soft
– if Wall Street leaves risk-off mode

Volatility guaranteed. Range or break: it is decided now.

🚨 RECORD LIQUIDITY IN SIGHT… AND THE CRYPTO MARKET CAN SMELL IT
#BTC MAY BE ON THE THRESHOLD OF A "BIG" MOVEMENT

#Trump spoke of a possible massive liquidity injection that, if realized, would be the most powerful catalyst since the 2019-2020 cycle.
And watch the parallel: in 2019 the #Fed loosened the taps with the "repo rescue," and #Bitcoin went from 3.5k → 14k in months.
Then, in 2020, the monetary expansion due to COVID made history: BTC exploded from 8k → 69k in just over a year.

The pattern is clear:
Liquidity enters → risk rises → BTC reacts first.
Today the market is in extreme fear, with illiquid supply at highs and whales accumulating silently.
Combine that with a potential tsunami of liquidity for the year's end… and you have an explosive mix.

Nothing confirmed yet, but the cycle clocks point to the same:
if liquidity enters, the reaction of $BTC BTC tends to be violent and early.
Very similar to the prelude of 2019 and the start of 2020.

My reading:
What is coming for the end of the year could be much bigger than what the market is currently discounting.

🇻🇪 #VENEZUELA AND THE CRYPTO ROUTE THAT HAS NO RETURN

In Caracas, they speak of "state bitcoinization" as if it were a new plan, but the truth is simpler (and more revealing): the State has been using BTC/USDT for years as a parallel way to move payments, protect liquidity, and evade a financial system that has it blocked. It is not ideology; it is technical survival.

This week, OTC flow rose 11% in the region. Key data: when OTC increases, silent adoption rises. Companies, businesses, individuals… and also the government itself. All searching for the same thing: a reserve that does not melt like the bolívar and a payment rail that does not depend on Washington or local banks.

And here comes the interesting part:
Even if there is a regime change tomorrow, this path does not dismantle. Why?
Because no government —neither the current one nor a new one— can rebuild a broken financial system, with weak reserves and zero trust, without using shortcuts. And today those shortcuts are called $BTC and $USDT.

What would change: the narrative and the opacity. A new government would probably order regulation, clean up state mining, and make the use of crypto more transparent. But giving up these tools would be an economic suicide.

In summary: Venezuela is not being "bitcoinized" out of fashion, but out of necessity. And that’s why, no matter what happens politically, the crypto route will continue… only with a different driver.

If Saylor says they buy daily, it matches what is seen on-chain: internal reorganization, no sales.
The noise came from superficial reading.
MicroStrategy continues to accumulate in fear ranges... and that always says more than any rumor.

🚨⚠️ WHAT NO ONE WANTS TO CALCULATE IF THE MARKET CONTINUES TO FALL
The total capitalization of the Crypto market is slipping again... and if the pressure doesn't ease, we could see a direct test of the 3T USD zone. This is where most people look at the price of $BTC … but almost no one does the full calculation.

With the current dominance around 54%, the calculation is simple:
Price $BTC BTC = (Dominance × Market Cap) / Supply
Current supply: ~19.7M BTC.

If the total falls to 3T, #BTC would absorb about 1.62T.
That leaves BTC around 82k–83k USD.
And if dominance rises (which always happens during drops), we could see it a bit higher… but still within that range.

It's not a red alert, it's basic math: if the market loses traction and breaks the 3T, BTC will adjust. It doesn't crash, but it does go down.

📡 The Radar says: watch the total, not just the price. When the market breathes less, no one is safe.

🚨 BTC | SUPPORTS ON RADAR

$BTC BTC continues to drain and has already cleaned liquidity below 93.5k.
The following key levels: 92.2k, 90.8k, and the strong block 89.5k–90k.

Why does the 90k zone matter?
Because there was an FVG in HTF from the vertical rise in October. Pending liquidity that the price tends to balance before extending the trend.

With weak momentum and funding turning negative, the probability of a visit increases.
👉 Losing 92.2k leaves the path open to 90k.

🟧 It is not the end of the cycle: it is mean reversion to the level where the price was "owing".

🔥 KEY WEEK IN THE U.S.: BETWEEN MACROEVENTS AND CRYPTO EXPECTATIONS

🚨 Next week looks intense in the U.S., but watch out for the hype:
-> The #shutdown (government closure) is still ongoing; the Senate is trying to resolve it this weekend, but there is no guarantee that it will end on Monday.
-> There will be a press conference of the #FOMC on Tuesday, focusing on inflation and interest rates.
-> On Thursday, the #CPI (Consumer Price Index) will be released, and on Friday the PPI, both key to anticipating monetary policy.
-> There is no official confirmation about a “cancellation of Obamacare.”
-> On Saturday, #Trump has an event scheduled under the slogan “Make America Great Again,” which could shift political narrative and markets.

📊 In the crypto ecosystem, some traders see signs of a possible altseason (the dominance of $BTC decreases and risk appetite increases), but it is not guaranteed.

👉 In summary: a week with real catalysts, but the promises of “giga bullish” are more speculative than certain.

🚨🧠 #Ethereum activates tests for "Shanghai Lite", its next major update.
The goal: to make the network a more agile and cheaper infrastructure for global payments and institutional DeFi protocols.

This version aims to reduce gas costs by up to 40% and improve the execution speed of smart contracts, which is key for banks and companies to adopt the network as the highway of digital money.

💡 In other words: $ETH is preparing to leave the lab and directly compete with #CBDC and banking networks.
If it works, it would mark the beginning of a new wave of real adoption, not just speculative.

Could this be the catalyst that triggers the #tudemun of $ETH 🚀 or has the market already absorbed it?

#Ethereum #ShanghaiLite #ElRadarDeCesar

🔥 KEY WEEK IN THE U.S.: BETWEEN MACROEVENTS AND CRYPTO EXPECTATIONS

🚨 Next week looks intense in the U.S., but beware of the hype:
• The shutdown is still ongoing; the Senate is trying to resolve it this weekend, but there is no guarantee it will end on Monday.
• On Tuesday, there will be a FOMC press conference, focusing on inflation and rates.
• On Thursday, the CPI (consumer price index) will be released, and on Friday the PPI, both key to anticipating monetary policy.
• There is no official confirmation about a “cancellation of Obamacare.”
• On Saturday, Trump has an event scheduled under the slogan “Make America Great Again,” which could shift political narrative and markets.

📊 In the crypto ecosystem, some traders see signs of a possible altseason (BTC dominance decreases and risk appetite increases), but it is not guaranteed.

👉 In summary: a week with real catalysts, but the promises of “giga bullish” are more speculative than certain.