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OCC speaks out! Will cryptocurrency institutions finally achieve equality with bank licenses?

Today I saw the statement from the OCC director, and I couldn't help but clap my hands: this is the long-awaited moment of 'recognition' that the crypto community has been waiting for several years! Gould said that cryptocurrency companies applying for federal bank licenses should be treated equally to traditional institutions. This sounds simple, but in reality, it opens a door for the cryptocurrency industry into the traditional financial system.

We in the crypto circle all understand that in the past, it was incredibly difficult for crypto institutions to touch bank licenses, it was like the 'difficult road to Shu'—the regulators always used 'risk' as a shield, implementing double standards. Now, the OCC has directly stated that digital asset custody is not a new thing; electronic business has been around for decades, and the banking system has completely evolved from telegraphs to blockchain. This statement hits the nail on the head.

What's even more crucial is that this year the OCC has received 14 bank applications related to digital assets, which is almost equal to the total of the past four years. What does this data mean? It shows that cryptocurrency institutions are no longer satisfied with 'marginal play' but want to formally squeeze into the core of finance. Just like Circle applying for a national trust bank license and Erebor Bank aiming at services for crypto enterprises, both capital and institutions are rushing to get ahead.

Are some worried that regulation can't keep up? Gould also mentioned that the existing framework can cover it. In fact, in recent years, U.S. regulation has been loosening; the Federal Reserve has withdrawn its crypto guidelines, and banks like SoFi have started providing crypto trading services. This statement from the OCC is equivalent to giving banks and crypto institutions a sense of reassurance, and it is highly likely that more traditional financial players will enter the market in the future.

For our crypto circle, this is not only a regulatory benefit but also a signal of the industry's mainstreaming. Platform coins like BNB might also benefit from the entry of traditional finance, ushering in more application scenarios. However, it still needs to be reminded that the realization of benefits takes time; the short-term market may be volatile, but in the long term, the era of 'regular troops' in the crypto industry is truly about to arrive!
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$BTC US Financial Market's On-Chain Transformation and Future Investment Opportunities in the Crypto World: How to Capture Excess Returns on Mainstream Assets:

Yesterday, December 8

The Chairman of the SEC spoke, predicting that within two years, the entire financial market in the U.S. will migrate on-chain. Although this statement is somewhat exaggerated, as someone within the industry, I find it hard to believe that it will fully happen within two years, considering the entire U.S. financial market is dozens of times the size of the crypto market.

However, the shift of trading financial assets on-chain is indeed a transition that is occurring, and this is the RWA trading that is expanding market size.

Unlike the open attitude of Americans, we are tightening regulations on virtual currencies, including RWA and stablecoins. There is nothing much to say about this, as the institutional frameworks are different, and it’s all for the sake of respective development and stability.

But for individuals, the next few years will bring a new wave of wealth transfer. Whenever this is mentioned, I feel fortunate to have learned about this industry early on, and I even feel a bit of sympathy for those constrained by their limited vision.

A recent major event is the news regarding issues with the Zhejiang Financial Center's wealth management, leaving those who invested heavily in wealth management products in a tough spot.

These individuals faced huge investment risks without enjoying high returns, and in a certain sense, wealth management is just an investment if it cannot guarantee returns.

This round of market in the crypto world is indeed challenging, but to be honest, it is also because people have developed a path dependency, expecting high returns from altcoins, even short-term astronomical returns.

Honestly asking myself, if I had consistently invested in mainstream assets, especially by initially betting on Bitcoin, I would have definitely made a lot of money.

For future investments in the crypto industry, I believe shifting the investment focus to mainstream assets can allow one to enjoy excess returns in the future.
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Why is gold not rising? Analysis of core logic and short-term suppression
The question of why gold is not rising has become a frequent inquiry. In late October, after testing previous highs, gold continued to move sideways. Generally, the longer the sideways movement lasts, the stronger the upward momentum. However, last night, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak announced a restriction on gold bar exports starting in 2026 (Russia has the second-largest gold reserves in the world), a significant positive development that still failed to push gold to break through. The core reasons for this short-term suppression and long-term logic can be summarized as follows:
1. The underlying core logic of gold and silver rising
China's restriction on silver exports and Russia's restriction on gold exports is not coincidental; it reflects the reconstruction of the Asian monetary system and the trend of de-dollarization. From the data, starting in July 2024, the spot price of silver will fluctuate in sync with the Indian Rupee/Renminbi exchange rate, indicating a rare high correlation due to changes in the flow of Asian currency settlements: India pays for Russian oil with UAE Dirhams, which Russia exchanges for Renminbi to purchase Chinese silver. Meanwhile, due to G7 sanctions, gold cannot circulate normally. Silver, being unsanctioned and easier to procure and sell, has become a quasi-reserve asset that is detached from the dollar system in India-Russia trade. The monetary properties of silver are gradually returning. Essentially, Asia is building a dual-anchor monetary system for gold and silver. Accompanied by the waning influence of the United States and the fragmentation of the global monetary system, gold and silver, as cross-regional reserve assets and collateral, have solid long-term upward logic, which is also an inevitable result under the separated balance sheets of China and the United States.
2. Key reasons for gold's short-term stagnation
The core suppression comes from the surge in ten-year U.S. Treasury yields. The real interest rate = nominal interest rate (ten-year U.S. Treasury yield) - inflation expectations. The decline in the U.S. CPI combined with significant increases in nominal interest rates has led to a sudden rise in real interest rates, directly suppressing gold. Moreover, gold is currently highly sensitive to the speed of interest rate changes, rather than the absolute level of interest rates. If the Federal Reserve resumes a monthly $40 billion bond purchase plan, it could alleviate market sentiment in the bond market and lower U.S. Treasury yields, which would be a significant positive for gold.
Additionally, the core reason for the rise in domestic Treasury yield and the transition to a bear market in bonds originates from the appreciation of the Renminbi, which is primarily driven by the concentration of year-end foreign exchange settlements by enterprises. In simple terms, funds are flowing back from non-bank and overseas institutions, which are under relaxed regulation, to regulated commercial banks, leading to limited bank balance sheet expansion and an inability to absorb long-term Treasury bonds. As long bonds lack buyers, their yields rise, and the bond market transitions into a bear market.
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