The Federal Reserve continues quantitative tightening (QT) as total assets fall to ~$6.58T, down sharply from the 2022 peak near $9T.
Balance Sheet Snapshot:
• Jan 2026: $6.58T
• Jan 2025: $6.83T
• Peak (Apr 2022): $8.97T
• Pre-COVID (2020): $4.17T
Asset Composition:
• U.S. Treasuries: $4.24T
• Mortgage-Backed Securities: $2.04T
• Other assets: $299B
Liquidity Signals:
• Bank reserves: $3.05T (still ample, but trending lower)
• Reverse repos: $3B (down from $167B YoY)
• Treasury General Account: $779B (liquidity parked at the Fed)
Why it matters:
QT = less excess liquidity in the system.
This backdrop typically supports higher yields, tighter financial conditions, and limits upside for risk assets unless growth or rate-cut expectations improve.
🇦🇷 ARGENTINA RETAIL SALES: NOMINAL vs REAL REALITY (JAN 2026) 📉📈
Argentina’s retail data shows a strong disconnect between prices and purchasing power.
YoY – Nov 2025
• Nominal sales: +17.3% (↑ from 15.1% in Oct)
• Real sales (inflation-adjusted): -2.3%
→ Demand still contracting in real terms, despite slower decline than October (-4.7%)
Top Nominal Gainers (Current Prices):
• Furniture & Home Décor: +41.9%
• Bookstores & Stationery: +39.8%
• Food & Kiosks: +37.8%
• Toys: +27.2%
Regional Breakdown:
• Buenos Aires City: +20.8%
• Greater Buenos Aires: +16.9%
Big Picture:
High inflation continues to inflate headline growth, while consumer purchasing power remains under pressure. Real demand contraction eased late-2025, but recovery is not here yet.
📌 Watch 2026 inflation trends — real retail growth depends on price stability, not sales value.
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel won’t speak today, but his Davos comments are still moving sentiment. He warned that new U.S. tariffs could be a “game changer” for Europe’s monetary policy.
Why it matters:
Trade pressure can force central banks to rethink inflation, rates, and growth paths.
At the same time, the Bundesbank Monthly Report drops today, focusing on:
Government investment
What’s really driving EUR/USD moves
These are the kind of quiet macro signals that shape markets before price reacts.