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The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike expectations on the 18th-19th of this month continue to apply pressure, with market concerns about tightening liquidity sharply escalating. Coupled with the impact of MicroStrategy's 8.3% plunge yesterday, $BTC prompted panic selling last night, dropping to a low of 85000.

Looking back at the current interest rate hike cycle that began in 2024, each subsequent hike has led to a significant correction in Bitcoin's price. After the March hike in 2024, it dropped about 23%, after the July hike it fell about 26%, and after the January hike this year, the drop exceeded 30%, with the decline gradually expanding. Considering this historical pattern, combined with the tighter market liquidity as the Christmas season approaches, the outlook for the market after this interest rate hike is not optimistic. The rebound height of 94500 is only 500 away from the rolling warehouse order price of 95000, making it highly likely that the rolling action for Bitcoin will not be completed by the end of the year, continuing to hold positions in anticipation of a drop below 80,000 in the first quarter of next year.

#zec has recently started a补跌行情, currently fluctuating around the 400 mid-track. Last week's weekly line showed a long upper shadow with reduced volume, indicating that the cyclical rebound is not strong. Under the pressure of Japan's interest rate hike, it is almost impossible for this week's rebound to reach new highs compared to last week. Currently, orders are still placed above 450 to continue rolling short positions, whether they can be executed depends on fate. Under the big trend, ZEC's final drop below 300 to create a new low is a high probability event; for now, one only needs to patiently hold their position.

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