大饼王哪跑

$ETH 2025-12-10, getting up early to go out and come back, looking at the market, after a surge last night, it touched the upper boundary of the downward channel. From the position, there should still be room above, the target near 3500 has not been reached, and the expected target for Bitcoin 98 has not been reached yet, so there should still be upward space. However, the risk-reward ratio is not high. In the case of a significant drop, there is still a few thousand points of space. For the second Bitcoin, there’s a risk of a significant drop with only about 100 points of space, which is not worth taking. It is recommended to remain observant during the day and wait for tonight's price action to enter the market.

Summary: Lightly test long positions above 3250-3280, first target 3500, second target 3600. If it directly breaks 3180 with high volume or quickly rebounds to 3500 with high volume, it can be shorted.

Resistance levels: 3350-3400-3500-3600
Support levels: 3250-3200-3150-3100

$ETH 2025-12-09, the market is relatively clear, overall showing a fluctuating upward trend with gradual bottoming. Currently, it is undergoing overbought correction, and once the correction is nearly complete, it will spike to wash out positions before increasing in volume. The strategy is to buy on dips above 3050 and set a strict stop loss below 3030, while also being cautious of spikes. The next spike is expected around 2960-3000.

Summary: Buy low and sell high above 3050, set the stop loss below 3030, and you can place an order around 2960-3000 to catch the spike with a stop loss below 2950.

Resistance levels: 3150-3200-3250-3300
Support levels: 3100-3070-3030-2950

$ETH 2025-12-08, last night after a wave of southward gaps received effective support and quickly returned north, currently consolidating at the key resistance conversion point of 3100. The trading strategy is basically consistent with yesterday, focusing on observing the breaking conditions of the two support and resistance levels at 2970 and 3150. If it breaks upward, go long; if it breaks downward, go short. You can also trade within the range with high shorts and low longs, keeping the stop-loss tight, as the losses won't be painful.

Summary: 2950-3150 high shorts and low longs with short stop-loss for short-term trading. Once at the target, withdraw without being greedy. You can also directly buy low and sell high backed by 2950, just maintain strict stop-losses and avoid holding onto losing trades. If 2900 is broken, a conservative estimate is 2770-2820. If it continues to deeply adjust, 2620-2250-1800 will be levels that few can withstand.

Resistance levels: 3150-3200-3250-3300 (high-level consolidation has lasted many days. If it attempts to break through again, there is a high probability of a successful breakthrough reaching around 3300. If it encounters resistance, it may continue to consolidate at high levels. If 3300 breaks with volume, it may directly reach 3400-3500)
POC: 3100
Support levels: 3085-3050-3000-2950 (if it breaks down, look for 2820-2770)

$ETH The probability of moving south has increased, focus on observing the break confirmation at these two positions: 2970-3100 for safer entry.
Moving north: Break through 3100 with the first target at 3250, the second target at 3300, and the third target at 3500.
Moving south: If it breaks below 2970, look for 2820 to switch to long, with the first target at 3100 and the second target at 3250. If it fails to break, it is expected to return to 2620.

$ETH 2025-12-07, yesterday was Saturday and the performance remained stable with no fluctuations. Today is Sunday, and in the afternoon or evening, there should be a pin action followed by a trend. If the previous trend continues, it indicates a downward trend. However, based on the market data from the past two days, the probability of a breakout to the north is relatively higher since the last wave did not reach the critical resistance level. The support at the 3000 integer level is strong, and there are significant positions at the 2990-2980 levels, making the shorting risk-reward ratio slightly higher. Today's strategy remains consistent with yesterday's, but care must be taken to prevent pin actions. Additionally, closely observe the support situation at 2970-3000; as long as it tests without breaking, one could consider a small long position. The next wave should break through 3250-3300. If it drops below 2970 and the main support is released, it might directly waterfall to around 2820. From a timing perspective, maintaining a fluctuating upward channel aligns well. In summary, either wait for a right-side breakout or make a short stop-loss for a larger risk-reward ratio; holding positions without any significance is meaningless. If it truly breaks through the critical support, it’s better to wait for the dip to confirm a bottom before making a rebound trade to capture the entire move.

Summary:
Small range: 3020-3070, go high on shorts and low on longs, set strict stop losses with a narrow ten-point stop; if a pin action occurs, switch to a wait-and-see approach. Each time it reaches a position, close part of the position while leaving a base position for a breakout. Once it breaks through or falls below, there is roughly 300 points of space in either direction.

Resistance levels: 3075-3100-3150-3200-3300
Support levels: 3000-2975-2900-2820-2770

$ETH 2025-12-06, Saturday slept a bit more, last night Black Friday still didn't disappoint, every Friday as long as the top closes with a long needle, just short it and it's done. Saturdays usually have no market activity, tomorrow afternoon or evening might see something, currently doing bottom repair and building a base, the suggestion here is to short high and long low, the range can temporarily look at 2975-3075, with 25-50 space above and below for pin placement. It should be noted that if the 2975-2950 range does not get support, the gap below is a vacuum area, which could lead to a waterfall drop down to the 2750-2820 area. The space for both long and short is about the same, with the upper space relatively larger, but the existence of the gap below can allow for a quick profit-taking on a short position, weigh it yourself.

Summary: 2975-3075 range doing high short and low long, every time it reaches the position, just close part and leave a bottom position to bet on a breakthrough. Once it breaks through or drops below, there's about 300 points of space on both sides.

Resistance levels: 3075-3100-3150-3200-3300
Support levels: 3000-2975-2900-2820-2770

$ETH 2025-12-05, the callback strength yesterday was insufficient, and funds continue to maintain significant inflows. The support strength below is strong, but there is considerable selling pressure above. The range height has moved up to 3050-3300, currently in line with a bullish continuation pattern, preparing for a breakout at 3250 while consolidating at the top to build strength. The first target remains at 3300, and the second target is 3500.

Summary: Engage in high selling and low buying within the 3050-3300 range, leaving a portion of the base position each time to bet on a breakout, with strict stop-loss below 3030.

Resistance levels: 3200-3250-3300-3500
Support levels: 3130-3100-3050-3000

$ETH 2025-12-04, yesterday there was a strong surge, and it has now reached the first target of 3220. You can wait for a pullback to confirm a short position; if it directly breaks through 3220, just observe for now. The 3220-3250 range still has a lot of liquidity and could be quickly consumed. Currently, the second contract has successfully completed its upgrade, with funds continuously flowing in to support it. However, the overall market is seriously overbought, and there is a demand for a short-term correction. Additionally, there will be a large number of recent bulls taking profits near 3220, leading to significant selling pressure. Let's be patient and observe for now. If a pullback confirms, then short it, but don’t be greedy. The downward channel has already been broken. If it pulls back from 3220, and doesn't break below 2950, the next wave will directly look towards 3500. If it breaks below, we can first look at 2820.

Summary: High sell and low buy in the 2950-3250 range, break through 3250 to look at 3500, break below 2950 to look at 2820.

Resistance levels: 3220-3250-3300 (breakthrough target → 3500)
Support levels: 3100-3080-3000-2950 (breakdown target → 2820)

$ETH 2025-12-03, this market situation really made me laugh. Yesterday it was mentioned that today's second contract upgrade might increase by 10%-30%, but I thought it would start before the market opened tonight. Just after dropping 10 points yesterday, it directly surged up. A back-and-forth fluctuation of 20% in one day is a bit absurd... Currently, it has reached the 3045 resistance level and is attempting to break through, just like the trading strategy from a few days ago. If it breaks through 3045 and stabilizes, one can cautiously try going long. Stabilizing between 3070-3100 allows for additional purchases, while conservative traders can wait for it to firmly establish above 3100 before entering.

Summary: Breakthrough and stabilization at the three strong resistance levels of 3045-3070-3100 indicates going long, while failure to break through and subsequent rebound suggests shorting. Additionally, recent market fluctuations are significant, and during the upgrade period tonight, a price fluctuation of 10% or more may occur. Therefore, it is advised for those using high leverage to watch closely and act less until the trend stabilizes before entering.

Resistance levels: 3045-3070-3100-3180-3220-3500
Support levels: 2970-2950 (short-term strong support)-2880-2820-2780-2720-2670

$ETH 2025-12-02, I know you are anxious, but please don't rush. There should still be space below; I suggest waiting and observing. Enter when the pin hits the 2670-2690 range and shows a clear bottom pattern. For now, you can observe the area around 2840-2870 for resistance and try to short with light positions, setting a stop-loss at 2890. Only consider going long if it breaks and stabilizes above 2890. Considering that tomorrow night at 9:50 PM there will be an upgrade for the second futures contract just before the US stock market opens, it is very likely that the market will continue to wash out over the next couple of days. It would be normal for it to wash out and then jump up by more than 10 points directly at the US market opening. Don't miss a few dozen points and lose the big opportunity; if you must trade, just play with a small position for now.

Summary: You can look for high short positions below 2890. If it breaks and stabilizes above 2890, you can try going long with small positions. After a clear bottom pattern appears in the 2670-2690 range, you can also try going long with small positions. The risk-reward ratio is very appealing, so be sure to enter with light positions. I suggest dividing the position you want to open into multiple parts and entering gradually. For example, if you want to open a 10% position, start from 2690 and reduce by 1% for each batch to place orders. This way, if it really dips down, you can average your entry price. If it rebounds directly without reaching the expected position, just wait for a correction to add more. Safety first.

Resistance levels: 2870-2920-3050-3100
Support levels: 2720-2670-2620

$ETH 2025-12-01, What am I doing here after waking up? I just slept a little longer today, and as a result, I got hit with a sudden shock. This is why I repeatedly emphasize the importance of properly managing dynamic stop losses. Losses can preserve profits, and gains can secure some profits. After waiting so long, the second bottom has finally arrived, but this profit giving back is indeed a bit much. Looking at the market, there has been a brief halt in the decline, but a clear rebound signal has not yet appeared. Bulls are advised to remain cautious, while bears can take partial profits. It is currently impossible to confirm whether we will continue to see a deep correction or a second bottom. If it is a second bottom, the support around the 2800-2700 area will be more convincing. If we directly continue with a deep correction, the next level will be at 2250. The probability of a deep correction should not be high, as there have been quite a few positive factors this week. It looks more like a violent washout during the second bottom pullback. Just be patient and observe; wait for a clear upward signal before entering the market.

Summary: Those wanting to catch the bottom are advised to remain cautious; now that we are at this position, we are not looking for a bottom below.

Resistance levels: 2850-2900-2950-3050-3100
Support levels: 2830-2795-2750-2700-2670

$ETH 2025-11-30, the end of the month coincides with the weekend. Tomorrow, both the weekly and monthly lines will refresh. As long as today does not break the support level, we should see a nice rebound next week. Last night I mentioned that the strong support for the big pancake is at 90, and for the second pancake, it is at 2965, which has multiple resonance. This has been confirmed, and we are currently testing the upper boundary of the intraday downward channel. After breaking through, observe the breakout conditions at three levels above: 3045-3070-3100. If we successfully break through 3100 with increased volume, there may be some selling pressure in the range of 3150-3200. However, considering the nearly 1 billion buy orders from last night, it shouldn't just be about taking profits at such a small amount. Let's observe the breakout situation then. Additionally, next week will be relatively critical because this round of oversold rebound has not shown a secondary bottom, so it is currently uncertain whether this round of adjustment has ended. Assuming it has ended, we could see levels above 4500. As for new highs, the probability is low unless there is significant positive news; otherwise, it will be difficult to break new highs directly. Therefore, after a rebound, the probability of continuing a deep adjustment is relatively high. If a top formation appears at any position in the range of 3150-3500, we will need to continue the adjustment. The next adjustment position is 2250-1800, but we are not looking that far ahead; let's take it step by step and keep it updated daily.

Summary: Those with good positions in long positions can hold on. If the entity breaks below 2965 and stabilizes, consider taking profits and losses in batches, with the defensive position set below 2940. Only consider southward movement if breaking below 2965-2940. The northward risk-reward ratio is still quite attractive; just manage your position well.

Resistance levels: 3030-3045-3070-3100-3150-3220-3500 (multiple resonance strong resistance levels; if the breakout fails, you can consider shorting, the risk-reward ratio is very appealing)
Support levels: 2980-2965-2940 (breaking below may open up a secondary bottom)

$ETH feels like it's tempting the void, now it's all relying on that single order of 150 million at 3000. If that order is suddenly withdrawn, the more than 500 million buy orders below will be released and will directly break through 3100. The buy orders are concentrated between 2940 and 2990. If it falls below 2940, a pullback is likely confirmed. If the 3000 order is suddenly withdrawn, it seems it will still be heading north.

$ETH 2025-11-29, yesterday successfully broke through the upper boundary of the downward channel and has repeatedly tested without falling back. There wasn't much volume on Saturday, so let's treat it as a narrow range box, 3000-3100, with a 50-point buffer to prevent spikes. Generally, there might be a trend tomorrow afternoon or evening. If you have no positions today, you can take a day off. If you feel restless, you can wait for a confirmation of a pullback to the bottom of the box before making low buys and high sells.

Summary: 3000-3100 narrow range box, 50-point buffer to prevent spikes, trend might appear tomorrow afternoon or evening, most likely still heading north. First target is 3200, second target is 3500. The 3500 level has significant resistance and is likely to rebound. Just observe at that time. I plan to hedge around 3500, taking profits on rebounds and closing shorts on a volume breakout.

Resistance levels: 3045-3070-3100-3150
Support levels: 3000-2970-2940-2880

$ETH 2025-11-28, 3045 is at a high horizontal position, currently making multiple attempts without breaking, but still trying. There are a large number of orders in the 3070-3100 range, and this wave of liquidity should be consumed. The weekend is coming in the next couple of days, and today is very crucial. It depends on whether today breaks through 3150 or directly tests the bottom again. Just observe the two key levels.

Summary: Stabilize long if breaking through 3070-3150, stabilize short if breaking down below 2940-2880.

Resistance levels: 3045-3070-3095-3150-3220
Support levels: 3000-2970-2940-2880-2830-2780-2620

$ETH
Big Pancake: The 24-hour increase is relatively high; a pullback to the 88-89 range is more reasonable. 8970 has strong support; let's see if it can hold. If it holds, it won't drop further.

Second Pancake: Watch if it can hold at the two positions of 2890-2970. If it can't hold, it might directly drop to around 2950. If it breaks below 2950, there’s a chance to further test 2880. If it breaks, it might retest the bottom. Considering that the weekend is approaching and it’s also the end of the month, there’s a possibility of two consecutive drops today and tomorrow, followed by a bottom repair over the weekend, leading to a major upward wave next week. There should be significant positive news in December to support the rally. Of course, we hope that 2955 holds, and then shortly break through the upper boundary of this downward range. If the range of 3070-3100 can break and stabilize, we can first look at 3665.

$ETH 2025-11-27, last night the callback reached the lower track of the short-term upward channel, and there was no direct rapid rebound even after breaking through during the holiday. Currently, this position is quite awkward, 3045 is a major cycle retracement support and resistance level. If 3045 continues to fail to break through, combined with the previous bottom rebound at 2620, these two are the same retracement cycle support and resistance. If 3045 can break through and stabilize, and withstand a wave of short-term retracement without breaking, the corresponding resistance level above is 3665. If 3665 breaks, we will still look at 4795. If 3045 cannot hold, it is highly likely to test 2620 again. If 2620 can hold, it will create a perfect bottom shape. However, there is a problem that many people overlook, which is the continuous outflow of large amounts of cryptocurrency. Although the price hits new highs every day, there is still a significant amount of capital flowing out daily. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that this is just a超跌反弹 (oversold rebound) to serve as a continuation of the downward trend. After retracing to 3045, a second test of 2620 could break the next support level at 2250. Therefore, the suggestion is to take a small position to try going long, but do not heavily invest in bottom hunting, otherwise, any wave of retracement could lead to losses.

Summary: Currently at the upper track of the mid-term downward channel, focus on whether 3045 can break through and stabilize. If successful, a short-term rebound may occur at the upper levels of 3070-3150-3220 to test the 3045 support. If 3045's support and resistance conversion is confirmed as strong support, then look above at 3665-4795. If the breakout fails and falls below 3000, it may initiate a second bottom test of the 2620 support.

Resistance levels: 3045-3070-3150-3220-3400-3665
Support levels: 3010-2950-2920-2850-2750-2620

$ETH 2025-11-26, the position is basically consistent with yesterday's, and the current pattern is more in line with the post-touch bottom repair and the oscillation upward. Currently, we mainly observe which position it will retreat to before 10:30 PM. If the support level does not break, it may break through 3000 at night to test the strength of the resistance level between 3030-3070. As long as it can hold above 3100, it can basically be seen as the main rising wave about to begin. The area between 3070-3100 is the upper track of this wave's oscillation and downward channel. A breakthrough and stabilization may be accompanied by a surge directly pulling up to around 3190-3220.

Summary: It is basically the same as yesterday, and the strategy can be followed as yesterday, with light long positions in the 2830-2880 range, stop loss at 2820. If it breaks below 2820, it is advisable to close positions and observe whether it is a second bottom confirmation of the bottom pattern, or if it directly breaks down with volume to start a deep correction, which still has some probability.

Resistance levels: 2980-3045-3070-3100-3220 (look bullish if the upper track of the 3100 downward channel breaks)
Support levels: 2900-2880- (the 2840-2820 range is a multiple support level, strong support, can try light long positions, do not heavily invest, as breaking it may directly start a second bottom) -2770-2620 (if there is a second bottom, 2620 must not break, once it breaks, it confirms a deep correction, looking down to 2250-1800)

$ETH 2025-11-25, yesterday saw a relatively good rebound, but it has not yet rebounded to the key resistance level, and it is currently overbought in the short term. Next, observe where the pullback finds support. It is advisable to maintain a light position. Those looking to short should be aware that there may be a pullback around 3000-3045. After encountering resistance, a daily adjustment will begin. Between 2830-2880, a light long position can be tried, with a stop loss just below 2800.

Summary: A light short can be taken near 3000-3045, with a stop loss at 3100. Between 2830-2880, a light long can be taken, with a stop loss below 2800. Be very cautious when going long; we are currently in a state of oversold rebound. Although there appears to be a recovery, there is still a high outflow daily. The key resistance level at 3150 has not been broken, and any clear bullish signal should still be treated as a bearish trend.

Daily range: 2800-3000 (still leaving 50 points of redundancy on both sides, 2750-3050, you can work within this range for high shorts and low longs).

Important reminder!!!
We are currently only in an oversold rebound pattern, and it has been emphasized recently that if a main upward wave begins, it will inevitably go through a relatively long period of sideways consolidation for bottom repair. The bottom of the current range has not yet been effectively confirmed, so don’t think you can get rich overnight; even if you start below 2700, it might still dip further to hit stop losses. The more stable approach right now is high shorts and low longs. Confirmation of the trend will only come when it breaks 3150 and stabilizes or breaks 2620 and stabilizes. Until then, treat it as a range to increase your win rate significantly.

$ETH 2025-11-24, the upper rail of the downward channel has not been broken, and there is no clear downward trend. Today's movement is crucial. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have reached the expected target of the fifth wave. It was previously mentioned that the ideal movement is to reach the expected target of the fifth wave and then undergo a relatively long consolidation for bottom repair, lasting one to two weeks. Therefore, if this week does not break the key support and resistance levels, it is highly likely that we are already in a gradually expanding consolidation box for bottom repair. During this period, there will be violent fluctuations with time. Due to the strong support at 2850 being tested multiple times effectively yesterday, we will temporarily look at a range of 2750-2850 with a redundancy of 50 points. However, it is important to note that if we are indeed going to take so long for bottom repair, this box will surely expand gradually, with a reasonable range of 10%-30%. From the perspective of position, this large box should still be 2650-3650. Therefore, if the bottom repair ends and the upward channel starts, we will need to closely observe the breakthrough situation at 3650 by the end of the month. If it cannot break through, we may have to maintain this box until mid to late December before starting a main upward wave. Of course, the current downward box has not yet been broken, and in the short term, we still consider it a technical rebound in a downward trend. For the long term, we are still in a deeply corrected upward trend. So for long-term holders of spot assets, it doesn't matter; every pullback is an opportunity to get in, especially with Bitcoin.

Summary: Focus on observing today's trend, determine the positions of the top and bottom of the box, and trade according to the box. As long as the key support and resistance levels are not broken, we can still treat it as a box for trading.

Short-term box: 2750-2850 (after confirming the bottom, the top will gradually expand upwards)
Long-term box: 2650-2750-3650-4750 (Currently, it needs to be confirmed which is the bottom between 2650 and 2750, so we can directly consider 2650 as the bottom. However, observe first and do not rush in to catch the bottom or trade. When the market starts moving several hundred to a thousand points, don't focus too much on these small points. Confirming the trend and entering on the right side has a higher success rate, and earning less is not a loss.)

Important!!!
2620 is the confirmation point for deep correction in the long-term trend. Once it breaks and stabilizes, it confirms the deep correction. Trade according to the target levels from the previous days. Only after the price consolidates above any of these three strong support levels: 2620-2250-1800 for more than 1-2 weeks should one consider catching the bottom.