Cynthia Venditti lWv3

I am firmly bearish, definitely not guessing. First, the four-year cycle has completely ended, with daily, weekly, and monthly charts all breaking down, and the trend is weak as can be; this is the hardest signal.
Secondly, more ironically, even though the market is panicking like this, the funding rates for BTC and ETH perpetual contracts are still positive—long positions surprisingly still dominate, this bubble hasn’t been fully squeezed out.
Just look at when BTC dropped below $100,000; the rebound was so weak it was like it hadn’t eaten, and it still hasn’t climbed back above $100,000; this momentum doesn’t look like it’s about to reverse.
There’s also a big thunderbolt: the U.S. might strike Venezuela, and there could be major powers involved behind the scenes. If a war really breaks out, who would dare enter high-risk markets? Big funds are just watching; why should we small retail investors rush in.
What’s most annoying is social media, where a bunch of people are shouting “buy the dip.” How many times in BTC’s history has there been extreme panic, only for small rebounds to drop back into the abyss.
The reversal signal in my mind is very clear: no one is shouting to buy the dip anymore, the volume ratio of ETH perpetual contracts is lower than BTC, plus the mainstream spot trading volume continues to hit bottom; only then is it worth betting on a small rebound.
At this position, if we really want to enter the market, we can only try a small position in spot trading; the stop-loss line must be firmly set—if there’s an extreme drop, those coin and stock companies will be forced to liquidate, and once the stampede starts, there’s no way to escape.
There’s also a particularly heart-wrenching detail: after October 11th, liquidity has been decreasing; new entrants are all withdrawing, with funds only flowing out and not in, and there’s no hope for a short-term recovery in sight.
To be honest, trading is too exhausting right now; I’m afraid of being trapped if I try to buy the dip, and I’m also scared of missing out if I try to short.
But the more chaotic it gets, the more we have to stick to our discipline and not be led away by FOMO emotions. Until the trend reverses, “waiting” is the best strategy.
As long as the voices shouting “buy the dip” haven’t disappeared, we should just be “bystanders”; preserving our capital is more important than anything else.