Hung3661
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This week I opened a total of 10 orders, but I feel a bit dissatisfied; it should be less. The loss from transaction fees and the accuracy of the trial orders can be adjusted. The line chart is moving slowly, and I shouldn't open so many.
The biggest loss was from the Pippin short position, which directly wiped out 10% of the total capital, disgusting.
The biggest gain was from the ETH short position, which covered the losses for the whole week and is still profitable.
The reason for having more short positions is not that I am a die-hard bear, but because it is a bear market now, and short positions are relatively easier to handle. However, I am only strongly bearish for September, October, and November. If there are signs of a rise afterwards, I will look towards the bullish side; if consensus returns, the shift will be very quick.
The biggest loss was from the Pippin short position, which directly wiped out 10% of the total capital, disgusting.
The biggest gain was from the ETH short position, which covered the losses for the whole week and is still profitable.
The reason for having more short positions is not that I am a die-hard bear, but because it is a bear market now, and short positions are relatively easier to handle. However, I am only strongly bearish for September, October, and November. If there are signs of a rise afterwards, I will look towards the bullish side; if consensus returns, the shift will be very quick.
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If you go up without organizing... the technology is too strong.
In theory, a few things will happen next. If the overall market confirms strength, strong altcoins will see a rebound.
If it is a false breakout, then the overall market will go down, and altcoins will stabilize.
Unless the overall economy weakens, the market won't drop too deeply, so whether it's a true breakout or a false one, there's no need to expect the bears to have a long-term opportunity to continue to profit.
We'll know if the US stock market will break new highs in December.
In theory, a few things will happen next. If the overall market confirms strength, strong altcoins will see a rebound.
If it is a false breakout, then the overall market will go down, and altcoins will stabilize.
Unless the overall economy weakens, the market won't drop too deeply, so whether it's a true breakout or a false one, there's no need to expect the bears to have a long-term opportunity to continue to profit.
We'll know if the US stock market will break new highs in December.
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My recent interest is visiting furniture stores.
Since being hit by a reverse loss on Sunday, I have been empty-handed.
I originally had a very good position; if it had followed the trend, I could have made a big profit; but after the loss, it was clear that the trend had ended, and we had completely entered a consolidation phase.
I'm also particularly foolish; besides trend positions, I do quite poorly in other markets, so I might as well continue browsing the stores...
Over the weekend, I wrote two articles discussing the recent trading issues of market makers. This is all I can help you with; whether to participate is up to each of you to decide.
Since being hit by a reverse loss on Sunday, I have been empty-handed.
I originally had a very good position; if it had followed the trend, I could have made a big profit; but after the loss, it was clear that the trend had ended, and we had completely entered a consolidation phase.
I'm also particularly foolish; besides trend positions, I do quite poorly in other markets, so I might as well continue browsing the stores...
Over the weekend, I wrote two articles discussing the recent trading issues of market makers. This is all I can help you with; whether to participate is up to each of you to decide.
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Air Force Hell Pool -- Second Inquiry -- From Chatgpt
Q: Can you explain what deeper and more stable liquidity contracts on Binance are doing to make the system more stable?
A: Below I will explain with "mechanisms you can directly imagine": What upgrades has Binance made in the past two years → to make the liquidity of perpetual contracts "deeper and more stable", making this year's "air force hell pool" more common.
This is not an official advertisement, but the truth widely known among internal traders in the market.
---
⭐ 1. Binance expanded the Market Maker Program.
This is the most core change.
Binance provides:
Rebate
A: Below I will explain with "mechanisms you can directly imagine": What upgrades has Binance made in the past two years → to make the liquidity of perpetual contracts "deeper and more stable", making this year's "air force hell pool" more common.
This is not an official advertisement, but the truth widely known among internal traders in the market.
---
⭐ 1. Binance expanded the Market Maker Program.
This is the most core change.
Binance provides:
Rebate
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Air Force Hell Pool? First Inquiry -- Taken from CHATGPT
Chatgpt: Here is a complete breakdown of the three things you asked from the perspective of 'perpetual contract mechanism + market structure':
---
1. Why have many perpetual contract coins on Binance maintained high prices this year, but the funding rate has been negative for a long time?
This situation is actually a combination of 'decoupling of the perpetual contract market from the spot market' + 'insufficient spot supply' + 'market maker strategies'.
Possible reason one: Tight supply in the spot market (insufficient liquidity)
New currency, popular narrative coins often have low liquidity upon listing.
However, perpetual contracts have high leverage, low thresholds, and a large number of retail investors trading them directly.
---
1. Why have many perpetual contract coins on Binance maintained high prices this year, but the funding rate has been negative for a long time?
This situation is actually a combination of 'decoupling of the perpetual contract market from the spot market' + 'insufficient spot supply' + 'market maker strategies'.
Possible reason one: Tight supply in the spot market (insufficient liquidity)
New currency, popular narrative coins often have low liquidity upon listing.
However, perpetual contracts have high leverage, low thresholds, and a large number of retail investors trading them directly.
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A brief discussion on a long-term mindset person finding useful aspects after learning short-term trading.
Assuming today there is a drop in ETH from 4700 to 2600, we start to short without worrying about liquidation, but can only enter a fixed amount of position. Who do you think will have greater returns and bear less risk: shorting at 4700, 4300, 3800, or 3500?
Seeing long slope trends is a strength of long-term traders, but capturing the best entry points is a strength of short-term traders.
Because if short-term traders miss their timing, they die faster than those with a long-term mindset.
This is why we encourage technical complementarity, with short-term experts like Yan Chi, ACT's Da Ge, and the previous DA/TA's Gou Ge, among many others highly recommended to watch.
Finally, the most important:
"Short-term does not mean frequent trading"
Very important, very important, very important
If you closely observe the discipline of short-term experts when entering positions, you will understand.
Assuming today there is a drop in ETH from 4700 to 2600, we start to short without worrying about liquidation, but can only enter a fixed amount of position. Who do you think will have greater returns and bear less risk: shorting at 4700, 4300, 3800, or 3500?
Seeing long slope trends is a strength of long-term traders, but capturing the best entry points is a strength of short-term traders.
Because if short-term traders miss their timing, they die faster than those with a long-term mindset.
This is why we encourage technical complementarity, with short-term experts like Yan Chi, ACT's Da Ge, and the previous DA/TA's Gou Ge, among many others highly recommended to watch.
Finally, the most important:
"Short-term does not mean frequent trading"
Very important, very important, very important
If you closely observe the discipline of short-term experts when entering positions, you will understand.
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A Little Bit of Memory
After finishing the previous main text, I thought about my conversation with my former supervisor, which greatly influenced my view on short-term trading.
I am a conservative person who only likes long-term trading. People around me have lost all their assets playing stocks, so I always have a piece in my heart that doesn't understand why so many people take risks to do short-term trading.
Many of my former colleagues liked to do short-term trading. One day I asked my supervisor, why do you all love short-term trading so much?
"Because we are poor, we have to fight for turnover rate, that's the only way to have high capital efficiency"
I think this reason is sufficient.
It's not because of greed, nor the gambling nature, it's just because I know that my supervisor has really been poor, and just wants to live a slightly better life, which is why he chose the short-term market. The person I saw was already middle-aged, but he succeeded through short-term trading. I also agree with him.
I am a conservative person who only likes long-term trading. People around me have lost all their assets playing stocks, so I always have a piece in my heart that doesn't understand why so many people take risks to do short-term trading.
Many of my former colleagues liked to do short-term trading. One day I asked my supervisor, why do you all love short-term trading so much?
"Because we are poor, we have to fight for turnover rate, that's the only way to have high capital efficiency"
I think this reason is sufficient.
It's not because of greed, nor the gambling nature, it's just because I know that my supervisor has really been poor, and just wants to live a slightly better life, which is why he chose the short-term market. The person I saw was already middle-aged, but he succeeded through short-term trading. I also agree with him.
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The Relationship Between Data and Trends (Possibly)
Twenty years ago, people did not pay much attention to interest rate cuts.
Currently, due to the background of QE, coupled with the knowledge that many people will watch the data to enter the market, data releases have become so important.
If Trump can completely influence the Federal Reserve, leading to a new round of QE, coupled with America's debt issues, there will be many operations to discuss going forward. But today, we are not going to talk that deeply.
Returning to the beginning, since current data affects the market, many people will take advantage of data releases to make a big move. But for those who have done long-term trading enough times, they should notice that if today is a bull market, then with positive data, the gains will be compounded; if it is a bear market, positive data will cause a bounce, but shortly after it will continue to trend bearish. The reverse is also true.
Currently, due to the background of QE, coupled with the knowledge that many people will watch the data to enter the market, data releases have become so important.
If Trump can completely influence the Federal Reserve, leading to a new round of QE, coupled with America's debt issues, there will be many operations to discuss going forward. But today, we are not going to talk that deeply.
Returning to the beginning, since current data affects the market, many people will take advantage of data releases to make a big move. But for those who have done long-term trading enough times, they should notice that if today is a bull market, then with positive data, the gains will be compounded; if it is a bear market, positive data will cause a bounce, but shortly after it will continue to trend bearish. The reverse is also true.
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I didn't have the chance to be someone like Ray from OKX's interview.
I want to be like Lao Huang, who worked very hard at many odd jobs when he was young (😆 I did it), making painful decisions every day, working extremely long hours, being complained about by colleagues for coming up with new ideas early in the morning, handling business affairs while drinking whiskey on holidays, telling everyone that he is still the CEO, just hasn't been fired.
But Lao Huang is everyone's pride, isn't he?
I want to be like Lao Huang, who worked very hard at many odd jobs when he was young (😆 I did it), making painful decisions every day, working extremely long hours, being complained about by colleagues for coming up with new ideas early in the morning, handling business affairs while drinking whiskey on holidays, telling everyone that he is still the CEO, just hasn't been fired.
But Lao Huang is everyone's pride, isn't he?
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Two years ago, when I was doing ADA promotion activities with my friends, I invited D, but he read the message and did not reply. However, my partners also respected different KOL's decisions. I believe in D's business success and think his investment philosophy is actually not bad; it's purely a personal issue....
By the way, it was also at that time that I learned that Cardano has official representatives in Taiwan, but it seems that they assist in promoting English events, while they respond quite coldly to Chinese community activities.
Besides not feeling their support for the local community, the visibility of events organized by Cardano itself is still less than that of privately organized events. Three years have passed, and not much has changed....
This is also the reason why I gradually withdrew from the community.
By the way, it was also at that time that I learned that Cardano has official representatives in Taiwan, but it seems that they assist in promoting English events, while they respond quite coldly to Chinese community activities.
Besides not feeling their support for the local community, the visibility of events organized by Cardano itself is still less than that of privately organized events. Three years have passed, and not much has changed....
This is also the reason why I gradually withdrew from the community.
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I actually don't know why I want to short.
Before opening the position, I looked at the data and saw that there was still room for a surge, but the macroeconomic situation and my intuition told me that I could do something, and since I could afford to lose, I went ahead.
Sometimes after watching the market for a long time, you develop that intuition.
Before opening the position, I looked at the data and saw that there was still room for a surge, but the macroeconomic situation and my intuition told me that I could do something, and since I could afford to lose, I went ahead.
Sometimes after watching the market for a long time, you develop that intuition.
S
ETHUSDT
Perp
Closed
PNL
+101.62USDT
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Someone has started to stop losses, and we can seriously monitor the prices now👀
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Either there is no liquidity, or there might be a big surge. A reminder to be a bit cautious lately if there is no good position to defend.
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Most of the smart money big players I track have withdrawn, withdrawing in large amounts.
Don't worry that there is no capital in the market; the capital is just on vacation. It is indeed very quiet now, but fishermen don't fish when there are no schools of fish, right? When the schools of fish grow and become plump, they will naturally come back.
#加密市场观察
Don't worry that there is no capital in the market; the capital is just on vacation. It is indeed very quiet now, but fishermen don't fish when there are no schools of fish, right? When the schools of fish grow and become plump, they will naturally come back.
#加密市场观察
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I usually do not express too many emotions in writing, but there are indeed some words in my heart.
I do not distinguish between mainland Chinese, Taiwanese, or overseas Chinese; between the rich and the poor.
I only see whether you as a person make me feel respect, and I observe how a man treats those weaker than him when he is wealthy.
Even if you are very rich, have a high level of knowledge, or are from the same hometown as me, which is Taiwan, as long as you have poor character and lack righteousness, I will still look down on you.
#廢文
I do not distinguish between mainland Chinese, Taiwanese, or overseas Chinese; between the rich and the poor.
I only see whether you as a person make me feel respect, and I observe how a man treats those weaker than him when he is wealthy.
Even if you are very rich, have a high level of knowledge, or are from the same hometown as me, which is Taiwan, as long as you have poor character and lack righteousness, I will still look down on you.
#廢文
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The operation in a bear market is to operate less.
After taking out the profits from shorting in the past few weeks, I only kept the positions with higher certainty and crazily bought BTC and BNB spot.
It's time to exchange some cash for Christmas gifts.
Last week, I still felt anxious about whether to operate a bit more, but after thinking it over, I decided to focus on work. I personally enjoy working very much; a stable salary has allowed me to have stable operations in the crypto world over the past few years.
The positions I hold now are already fine even if they lose everything. Thankful for the downturn; I've been enjoying the recent spot buys, and I'll fight again next year.
After taking out the profits from shorting in the past few weeks, I only kept the positions with higher certainty and crazily bought BTC and BNB spot.
It's time to exchange some cash for Christmas gifts.
Last week, I still felt anxious about whether to operate a bit more, but after thinking it over, I decided to focus on work. I personally enjoy working very much; a stable salary has allowed me to have stable operations in the crypto world over the past few years.
The positions I hold now are already fine even if they lose everything. Thankful for the downturn; I've been enjoying the recent spot buys, and I'll fight again next year.
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What do you think about the injection of $ETH $ZEC $BANANAS31 , which type did I write about in my previous article? (It might be different)
In addition to injections, adding transaction volume assessment will make it a very good entry point.
What is a very good entry point? It is a position where you feel more at ease psychologically and a place that feels solid to you.
In addition to injections, adding transaction volume assessment will make it a very good entry point.
What is a very good entry point? It is a position where you feel more at ease psychologically and a place that feels solid to you.
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Spent some more time writing the article, it's a bit verbose, but the point is actually just one:
"Technical analysis is analyzing probabilities, not predicting the future"
"Technical analysis is analyzing probabilities, not predicting the future"
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Possible Reasons for the Needle
To explain the needle with Beat, as three types appeared at the same time, I happened to be watching this stock in these two days.
On the left is a short needle (washing the plate) lasting one minute, while the left side is a long needle (top measurement) lasting one to two hours; on the right side is the needle for delivery.
If it's solid for more than four hours, I will treat it as a trend.
For the needle, I will first look at whether to divide into large-cap or small-cap, which mainly serves three purposes: cleaning liquidity (delivery), directional guidance, and trend.
But there are no certainties; we have to wait for further observation (like the possibility of consecutive needles or a tug of war between bulls and bears).
On the left is a short needle (washing the plate) lasting one minute, while the left side is a long needle (top measurement) lasting one to two hours; on the right side is the needle for delivery.
If it's solid for more than four hours, I will treat it as a trend.
For the needle, I will first look at whether to divide into large-cap or small-cap, which mainly serves three purposes: cleaning liquidity (delivery), directional guidance, and trend.
But there are no certainties; we have to wait for further observation (like the possibility of consecutive needles or a tug of war between bulls and bears).
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