0x玄投君

Farewell to Roller Coasters: #polymarket Survival Rules for Stable Market Makers

In the prediction market, some are betting their lives, and some are collecting rent.

In pursuit of long-term stable cash flow, we have built a dual-layer screening system: Layer 1's machine rationality + Layer 2's cognitive moat.

Our goal is singular: reject volatility, embrace only profit.

🛡️
First line of defense: Only engage in 'boring' markets
The core of stable market making is to avoid all assets that might make your heart race.

Reject the ECG: Look for markets with low volatility.

Safety Comfort Zone: Only operate within the price range of 0.10 - 0.90. Avoid extreme 'black swan nests' like 2%.

💰
Profit Engine: Earn 'official salary'
Since we do not bet on direction, our profit source is official rewards.

High salary to work: Filter pools with daily average rewards > 1.00 USDC.

Ultimate cost-effectiveness: We are looking for high returns with low risk. If two markets offer the same amount, always choose the one with lower volatility.

🌊
Safety Net: Don't be the bag holder
Liquidity is a lifebuoy: Ensure market depth > $10,000.

Avoid giant whale battlegrounds: Trading volume should be moderate. Too low, and no one plays; too high (whales fighting) risks being harvested by insiders. We want to profit from the loss of retail investors' value.

Friend of Time: Only engage in assets settled within 15 - 90 days.

🦢
Human Risk Control: The unseen dangers of machines
This is the core of Layer 2, using your common sense to filter catastrophic risks.

Three No Principles:
Do not touch political/legal black swans: 'Will Putin step down?' Absolutely avoid.

Do not touch ambiguous rules: Markets with obscure rules that rely on third-party subjective judgments have very low capital efficiency.

Do not touch trending topics: Avoid the hot topics that are buzzing on Twitter, and go earn money from niche markets.

📝
Perfect Asset Profile

When you see a market that meets the following characteristics, enter decisively:

✅
Quiet: The past two weeks have been calm.

✅
Wealthy: The official rewards are generous.

✅
Popular: There are retail traders, but it is not the focus of the entire network.

✅
Clear: The rules are black and white, and there are another month or two before results are out.

Remember: Stable market making earns patient money and collects time rent. #ETH走势分析

Farewell to "Ineffective English Learning": How to "Weld" Words in Your Mind?

Do you feel this way too?

Holding a vocabulary book and starting from "Abandon", memorizing and forgetting, forgetting and memorizing.

In the exam room, the words look familiar, but you just can’t recall their meanings; while writing, you can only use the simplest words.

Bilibili UP master Luo Xiaoni tells you: Words are never learned by "memorization", but by "meeting" them in context.

1. Why is "memorizing vocabulary alone" doomed to fail?

Because words themselves are illogical islands.

Can’t remember: Words are just arbitrary combinations of symbols. Memorizing them is like trying to forcibly remember a stranger's phone number; your brain instinctively treats it as garbage information to be cleared away.

Can’t remember fully: Vocabulary books provide "specimens", not "living beings". A simple "By" has dozens of usages; without the context, you will only know the surface.

Using incorrectly: Words have their own temperament. The same "important" has completely different contexts for Important and Significant. If you only memorize the Chinese meanings, you will never learn the idiomatic expressions.

2. The core antidote: Context + Logic

Luo Xiaoni's logic is simple: Don't memorize words, go "meet" them instead.

The brain favors stories: When words are embedded in articles, they come with cause and effect. Reading "Sustainable" in environmental news, you remember not just a word but an entire set of logic.

Follow the "i+1" principle: Finding the right materials is key. Control the new word volume to within 2%. Understand 98% of the content and guess the 2% of new words. Maintain the fluency of reading; do not let dictionary lookups interrupt your rhythm.

The 12-time rule: A word must be encountered in different contexts more than 12 times to truly become yours. This is not achieved through copying, but through the natural repetition that comes from extensive reading.

3. Practical execution:

Throw away your vocabulary book.

Go read news, go read novels, go read anything that interests you.

Reunite with words in stories; this is the only way to master them permanently.

#ETH走势分析

Why are ordinary people destined to fail at becoming rich through day trading?

1.
Institutions look at real-time order flow and liquidity. They see the cause.

You look at indicators, which are lagging, seeing the effect. Information is inherently delayed.

2.
In a casino, if you are the only one playing continuously (time probability), as long as you have the possibility of "blowing up your account," as the number of trades N approaches infinity, your probability of bankruptcy approaches 100%.

High-frequency trading = increasing N.

The more frequently you trade, the higher the probability of encountering that "fatal black swan" or a series of stop losses leading to a psychological breakdown.

Transaction cost friction: Every trade has fees, slippage, and spreads.

In high-frequency trading, these friction costs accumulate exponentially, turning an originally 50/50 gamble into a -45/55 losing game due to friction costs.

3.
The reason low-frequency swing trading is effective is that it filters out market noise, captures the main trends, and most importantly—it reduces the number of mistakes you make.

A fierce operation is not as good as grandma going dancing.

Admitting you are an ordinary person and holding onto good things without selling them no matter what (or doing big swings) is far more profitable than exhausting yourself day after day to "scalp short positions."

#ETH走势分析

The healthy deflation Fusaka upgrade has announced that Ethereum has entered the "Rent Era".

On December 3, 2025, the Fusaka upgrade took effect, and the Ethereum mainnet Gas fees immediately fell to a historical low of 0.003 Gwei. Under the old economic model, this would have been a nightmare for ETH holders: no congestion means no burning, and without burning ETH, it would fall back into inflation. However, the market has sensed a completely different signal—"Ultra Sound Money" is returning in a healthier way.

EIP-7918: The final piece to reject "free riding" The key to turning the tide lies in EIP-7918, which takes effect with the upgrade. Before this, while L2 was prosperous, Blob fees remained at nearly free levels for years, causing Ethereum to fail to capture value from the expansion of L2. EIP-7918 introduced a mandatory Blob base fee floor. Its logic is simple yet overbearing: regardless of whether the market is congested, L2 must pay a "minimum consumption" fee to transmit data back to the mainnet. More importantly, this fee is not given to miners or validators but is directly 100% burned.

From "fare economy" to "rent economy" This is a complete decoupling of business models.

In the past: ETH made money from mainnet congestion. The worse the user experience (the higher the Gas), the more ETH was burned. This is a form of deflation that harms user experience.

Now: ETH makes money from the survival demand of L2. Even if the mainnet is empty (Gas 0.003), as long as Coinbase (Base), Arbitrum, and Optimism are still operating, they must continuously purchase Blob space and burn ETH.
#ETH走势分析

The Illusion and Reality of Encrypted US Stocks: What Are We Buying?

It seems that overnight, the wall between Crypto and US stocks has been torn down. Bitget, Binance Wallet, Trade_xyz, Ondo Finance… various players are moving US stocks onto the chain.

But we must clarify:

The same "NVDA" (NVIDIA) may represent two completely different entities on different platforms.

After dissection, I have categorized them into three factions. If you don't understand, don't bet easily.

1. Casino Chips: Bitget (Contract Version) and Trade_xyz
This category is essentially "synthetic assets" or "Contracts for Difference (CFD)".

What are you trading?

Air, or rather, a betting agreement.

You are not buying NVIDIA's stock; you are betting on NVIDIA's price movement with the exchange (or on-chain liquidity pool). No real stocks are being purchased on Nasdaq.

Can it pay dividends?

No. Because there are no underlying assets.

Is there tax?

No withholding tax, because there are no real dividends.

Security?

This is a "single-player game". Your risk lies in the exchange pulling the plug, or a code vulnerability in the on-chain protocol (like Trade_xyz).

2. On-Chain Purchasing:

Binance Wallet / Bitget (On-Chain Version): They interface with underlying service providers like Backed Finance or Swarm.

What are you trading?

You are buying a debt right of an offshore shell company (SPV). The logic is: you pay 100U on-chain, and they buy real stock worth 100U in a bank in Switzerland as collateral.

Can it pay dividends?

In principle, yes. But to avoid tax issues related to on-chain payouts, they usually adopt an "automatic reinvestment" model.

Is there tax?

Yes. At the underlying asset level, the US government will first take 30% of the dividend tax, and the remainder will be reinvested to you.

Security?

Higher than contracts because there are real assets.

3. Institutional Trusts: Ondo Finance aims to compliantly move off-chain assets onto the chain.

What are you trading?

You buy shares of a Delaware trust fund. You are recognized as an investor under US law.

Can it pay dividends?

Yes, usually issued in the form of Rebase (increased token supply).

Is there tax?

Extremely strict. Ondo conducts the strictest KYC.

Security?

Assets are custodied by giants like BlackRock, the safest.

#加密市场回调

a16z's Privacy Declaration: Why 'Transparency' is Killing Blockchain?

Just finished reading a16z's tweet about the privacy layer, and my eyes lit up.

This is guiding us towards a hundredfold track for the future! Please read in detail:

1. Transparency is a trap. Without privacy, there is no real business.

Imagine if Apple's supply chain purchase orders were fully public on the chain; how would this business operate?

2. Lessons from the Internet.

The early internet was also 'running naked.' It wasn't until 1996 that SSL/HTTPS (encrypted transmission) came along, leading to the later emergence of Amazon and Alipay.

Today's blockchain is in the 'HTTP era.'

a16z's subtext is: the privacy layer is the only bridge for blockchain to achieve large-scale commercial use.

3. ZK is the only antidote. ZK solves the dilemma of 'needing compliance while ensuring privacy.'

a16z is so definitive because in the world of blockchain, we have always faced a 'deadlock':

Complete transparency (Bitcoin/Ethereum): Everyone is exposed, institutions are afraid to enter (worried about exposing trading strategies), individuals have no privacy.

Complete anonymity (Monero/mixer): A complete black box where no one knows what's happening inside. The result is rampant money laundering, and regulatory agencies (SEC/FBI) will definitely eliminate such chains, and exchanges will delist them.

ZK is the only technology that can please both 'sides':

For users: Privacy is preserved (no one knows your balance and transaction history).

For regulators: Although they cannot see the details, through ZK proofs, they can confirm 'this money is not on the blacklist' or 'this transaction complies with anti-money laundering rules.'

It achieves a form of 'auditable privacy.'

I can prove my money is clean, but I don't need to show you my transaction history. This is 'selective disclosure.'

4. What else can the privacy layer do besides trading coins? After the explosion of privacy infrastructure, the real increment lies in:

DAO voting (to prevent vote buying and avoid groupthink)

On-chain games (hiding cards like in poker)

Web3 social (I control my data, rather than it being sold by the platform)

#加密市场反弹

Investment returns = Cognitive monetization.

Our main goal is to achieve cognitive arbitrage.

In financial markets, early returns come from "information asymmetry" (I know information that you don't),

but with the development of the internet and Web3, information asymmetry is being leveled. The excess returns (Alpha) of modern investments come almost entirely from "cognitive differences" (with the same information, I can interpret trends that you cannot understand).

So how can we enhance our cognition? There are only two ways.

1. Rare life experiences (like Duan Yongping's experience in business):

This is obtained at the cost of "real money," which is extremely high and non-replicable.

2. Reading: This is the only feasible shortcut for ordinary people.

Personally, I believe reading is a low-cost simulation of life.

Reading history (such as "The Fifteenth Year of Wanli," "Southward Migration, Northward Return"):

is for rehearsing cycles. If you know the patterns of currency collapse in history, you will have a different perspective when looking at cryptocurrencies.

Reading philosophy/biographies (such as "Su Shimin," "Duan Yongping"):

is to borrow the decision-making models of prominent figures.

Most importantly, it is to internalize others' experiences from books into your own intuition.

Many people read a lot of books but lack wisdom, which is precisely what is missing.

Knowledge does not equal wisdom.

Reading does not equal extracting, nor does it equal executing.

1. It is too difficult to unify execution.

Many people have read "Do Projects Like Investing" (they have gained cognition), but still panic sell during market crashes (failure of emotional control).

2. The ability to explore the underlying essence and laws.

Ordinary people read: remember that Duan Yongping bought NetEase and made 100 times (this is the story).

Experts read: extract Duan Yongping's decision-making model—

"Buy companies with blood-generating capabilities and healthy balance sheets during extremely pessimistic moments of mispricing" (this is the law). $hype

When reading, it is essential to pay attention to what are consistently effective rules. For example, the weaknesses of human nature.

And which ones often fail?

Like quantitative or valuation indicators.

Stories may fade away, but human nature remains unchanged.

#加密市场反弹

Trading never requires perfect predictions.

The key is not your frequency of being right (win rate), but how much you earn when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong (profit-loss ratio).

Learn to accept your own imperfections.

If you only play the right side, don't guess the bottom; if you're a high-frequency trader, don't talk about macro.

Admitting that you can only earn a specific type of money in the market is a sign of a mature trader.

If you've made money, it's best to stay within your comfort zone.

"Stepping out of your specialized field, you may be nothing at all."

#ETH走势分析

Investment is practice.

"Doing the right thing" is a strategic choice (Dao): It is the direction, aiming not only to make money but also to earn money that allows you to "sleep well at night."

"Doing things right" is tactical execution (Shu): It is efficiency, involving systematic trading discipline and risk control.

"Not easy" lies in confronting human nature: The market is an amplifier of collective emotions, and maintaining a "calm mind" and a "ten-year perspective" amidst the noise essentially means countering humanity's biological instinct for immediate gratification.

#加密市场反弹

Newbies die from chasing highs, veterans die from bottom fishing, and experts die from leverage. Only 'believers' die from the arrogance after getting rich.

The so-called cycle is just the constant replay of human greed and fear.

1.
For newcomers with small capital, going all-in on BTC may seem a bit lacking.

I think a more advanced approach is: to use profits from BTC to seek alpha, rather than betting your principal on luck.

The principal should always stay in BTC, only 'profits' deserve to play with altcoins.

This way, you keep up with the cycles while retaining the potential for explosive growth. (Barbell strategy)

2.
In a bear market, everyone knows to dollar-cost average into BTC, but once a bull market arrives and you see others' garbage coins doubling, anxiety will push you to switch positions and leverage up.

In this circle, what we need to fight against is not the market makers, but that 'inner demon' that feels like losing when seeing others make money.

#加密市场回调

The true top predator understands 'pig farming'.

99 tweets, he is your confidant.

Talking about emotions, discussing philosophy, even accompanying you to criticize the dealer. This is 'water storage', this is the 'emotional side' of market capitalization.

In the 100th tweet, the truth is revealed. Insider trading, mouse warehouses, MM collaboration. With one slice, hundreds of thousands of U are credited.

The most impressive thing is: even after leaving a mess behind, there are still people defending him, saying: 'The teacher did his best, it’s just that the project party is too incompetent.'

This is the leverage effect of trust.

As a retail investor, being able to understand how others place their bets is the way to survive.
😂

#加密市场回调

I just watched interviews with Brother Feng and Master Xu regarding cryptocurrency traders, and the contrast is striking.

One is a 1998 graduate from a second-tier university, who quit his job without a backup plan, invested $2,500, and multiplied his assets over 100 times in just a few months.

The other is a deputy factory director at a state-owned enterprise, a middle-level manager, who ended up with debts of over 3 million, became estranged from his wife, and eats only one bowl of Lanzhou beef noodles costing 6 yuan a day.

This is simply two different worlds. 👇

The successful young man is very clear-headed.

1️⃣ Battlefield: He only plays "meme coins" (土狗币). He knows this is a market that will 99% go to zero; it's a game of “who runs faster.”

2️⃣ Strategy: High-frequency short trading, taking profits of dozens of points and then leaving. He missed the “Trump coin” which had a 2,500 times “financial freedom” opportunity because his “trading habit” is to hold for just a few minutes.

3️⃣ Endgame: This is the most impressive point. His goal is not to earn a billion, but to accumulate 2-3 million in savings in a small county and then immediately stop, “lying flat,” waiting for the next four-year cycle.

He is speculating, but he knows what he wants. 🧠

The failed deputy director, on the other hand, is completely opposite.

1️⃣ Battlefield: He only plays "contracts" (Leverage).

2️⃣ Strategy: His keywords are: “boiling a frog in warm water,” “125 times leverage,” “never setting stop-loss” (or if he does, he will cancel it).

3️⃣ Inner demons: He is not speculating; he is “recouping losses.” His biggest inner demon is three words — “unwilling to accept.”

His family has saved him three times (220,000, 100,000...), he has deceived all his friends and relatives, returning to the casino time and again, with the hole getting larger and larger.

I discovered a cruel essence: 👇

One plays【spot trading】(土狗), the other plays【leverage】(合约).

One's endpoint is【lying flat】(with a clear exit goal). The other's endpoint is【recouping losses】(an endless abyss).

Playing contracts and going bankrupt means you lose your life.

Why did the deputy director lose everything?

Because “contracts” are essentially a gamble between you and your “twisted self.” You can't win.

That thought of “unwilling to accept,” that impulse to “cancel the stop-loss,” that illusion of “just borrowing a bit more can recoup losses,” is the deadliest poison.

Leverage is the fastest path to zero for ordinary people.

#合约爆仓

I increasingly feel that many people are not lacking in ability, but rather their brain's 'hardware' has been damaged.

I just read a latest meta-analysis in psychology from 2025 (A meta-analysis of 71 studies, N=98,299), and the conclusion is simply shocking:

The more short videos (SFVs) you watch, the closer your brain gets to a 'disabled' state.

1️⃣ Cognitive ability plummets: Research shows that the usage of SFVs is moderately negatively correlated with attention (Attention) and inhibitory control (Inhibitory Control). In other words, the more you watch, the less you can concentrate and control yourself.

2️⃣ Anxiety and stress soar: At the same time, the usage of SFVs is significantly positively correlated with stress (Stress) and anxiety (Anxiety).

This is the truth 👇

You shout every day that you want to 'get things done' and 'make money'... but you simply can't sit still.

The 'instant feedback' cheap dopamine from short videos is systematically destroying your ability for 'delayed gratification'.

It makes you extremely impatient with all high-value work that requires 'deep thinking' and 'slow, effortful' engagement.

So, stop telling yourself that you are 'relaxing by watching videos'. You are merely engaging in a 'high-cost' cognitive overdraft.

Protecting your 'deep work' ability is your only moat.

The layoffs in Silicon Valley are crazy, with Amazon, Microsoft, Meta... laying off tens of thousands.

As a result, the stock prices of these big companies not only didn't drop, but instead soared! 📈

Essentially, the valuation model of capital has changed.

In the past: Human resources = Productivity (based on how many Ivy League elites and how many senior programmers you have)

Now: Computing power = Productivity (based on how many AI applications and how much GPU reserve you have)

High-paid graduates from prestigious schools have overnight transformed from 'core assets' to 'operating costs'.

Cutting costs and replacing them with assets (computing power) naturally leads to rising stock prices.

It’s that cold, that real.

'Education' is accelerating in its devaluation.

You work hard on problem-solving and boosting your GPA, and finally make it into a big company, only to find that 30% of Microsoft's code is written by AI.

You’ve struggled for half a day, but can’t compete with an API 🤣

The era where you could relax with a 'standard answer' (like getting into a good university or a big company) is definitely over.

So where is the future path?

After pondering, I found that whether making money or achieving things, what ultimately matters is not technology or education, but 'mental strength'.

I summarize it in three points:

1️⃣ Happiness does not require success to deserve joy. Finding energy in daily growth allows you to endure longer and not easily fall into emo.

2️⃣ Learning focus on the process, not the outcome. The meaning of effort is 'I have learned', not 'I must win'.

3️⃣ A strong heart dares to charge forward in good times and can calmly turn around in adversity.

In simple terms, in the past, we desperately sought external validation: seeking education, seeking titles, seeking recognition.

Now we must seek internally: seeking inner strength, seeking our own goodwill, seeking the wisdom to see cycles clearly.

The ability to 'love oneself' is the most hardcore competitiveness in this messed-up era.

There is no stock market that only rises without falling, nor is there a life that only goes upward.

Yourself is the only benefactor you have. 👍🏻

#BNB创新高

Ray Dalio said that pain is the fuel for learning.

This sentence should be etched in the minds of people in the crypto world.

The crypto world is an amplifier of pain; the suffering you find hard to experience in web2 can be felt in just a few hours in web3.

The extreme volatility of $Giggle pulls at your emotions.

The traps of DEFI contract vulnerabilities.

MEME coins being manipulated.

Even the sudden wealth of a brother...

If pain is just pure pain, then it simply becomes the fire that burns oneself.

The complete logic of Ray Dalio's statement is: "Pain + Reflection = Progress".

In the crypto world, pain is the only certainty. You cannot avoid it. But you can choose whether to "reflect".

Continuously questioning yourself about how to do better.

Every pain is the best fuel for iterating yourself.

#交易

I increasingly feel that the essence of making money is not about how much you 'understand', but how well you can 'say no'. 👇

I just finished chatting with an old-timer in the circle, and he mentioned a quote from Duan Yongping about Ctrip: 'Investing is not about whether you have made a mistake, but whether you placed a big bet when you understood a good company.'

This sentence seems to talk about 'big bets', but the thinking of old investors must be understood in reverse.

The truly cruel underlying logic is 'asymmetry'.

First level of asymmetry: good companies vs bad companies.

In your life, if you miss dozens of great stocks, your loss is zero. Not buying is just not buying; it's only an opportunity cost. This is 'Situation A: good company, missed out, didn't buy.'

But if you miss and buy a bad company, once it drops 50%, you need it to rise 100% to break even. This is 'Situation B: bad company, missed out, bought it.'

In the crypto world, where 'bad coins are as numerous as the cows, and great projects are few and far between', every time you buy a bad product, you are digging a pit for your own net worth.

Got it? Avoiding bad companies (Say No) is mathematically more cost-effective than chasing good companies (Say Yes). This is the application of Bayes' theorem in speculation.

Second level of asymmetry: mindset and temperament.

I have seen too many smart people, excellent at technical analysis and coding, yet they never make big money. Essentially, it's about the honesty of intelligence having a problem.

They 'understand' too much yet admit to understanding too little.

They fear missing every hot trend, thus treating 'refusal' as a loss.

Only experts know how little they understand. Only by admitting that they don't understand can they firmly say no to uncertain opportunities.

No jealousy, no comparisons, just calculate your own accounts. This 'intellectual honesty' is the foundation that allows you to 'abandon' and then dare to 'bet big' when you understand.

【Speculator's Manifesto】

Investing and speculation are not a 'trial and error game' for young people. It's called 'better to make a mistake than to miss out', applicable to youth, entrepreneurship, and the pursuit of new technologies.

But when it comes to capital, it concerns whether you can keep playing at this table. Protecting your capital must be 'better to miss out than to make a mistake'.

#搞钱