顿悟百分之五十九

$PIPPIN can't explode on me, right?
It was hard to start falling, but why is it still a shrinking decline? Brothers who are going long, it's time to take some profits, we've been up for so many days, eaten so much funding fees, that's enough, use the profit to wash your feet and sing a song, take a bath, isn't that nice? What if we end up losing more, that wouldn't be worth it, let's go, let's go, quickly close all the long positions.

$pippin 0.16 I'm empty, it's too scary, I won't be blown up, right?

$PIPPIN $XNY
Similar trends, why can't you do it? Let's see how they play

$pippin

This is really terrifying, I stopped losses twice, and only succeeded on the third attempt at 0.33. If someone were to hold onto this, I don't know how they could withstand it. I was using a small position before and still lost a thousand U. Today, I really feel blessed by the heavens. If I lose again, I might really lose my mind; who knows, I might give up, or I might go all in.

$pippin
Record Twenty-Two: PIPPINUSDT (20251204 15:39-23:49)
Opening Price Stop Loss Price Position (U) Direction Stop Loss Amount (U)
0.19995 0.23 5000 Short 720




Reason for Intervention:
1. Similar to the previous order, shorting PIPPIN doesn't require a reason, just needs to be at the right position.
2. According to the downward trend line I drew, it broke through here and then dropped back.


Process:
I heavily invested here and set a high stop loss, which does not comply with the principles I had previously set. However, this coin has almost become my obsession lately. In the last project, I had a capital of 3000U and had already made a profit of 2 times, but because I shorted it, I continuously hit stop losses on 8 orders, losing 3500U, which caused my mindset to collapse, leading me to close the project. So, I was impulsive again. This “greed” character is really hard to control.
There was originally an opportunity to close near 0.183, which makes me a bit unwilling. As a result, after waiting for 8 hours, I paid a funding fee of 150U and finally waited for the opportunity to close. I originally wanted to leave some at 0.155, but that needle that pierced the bottom at 11 o'clock made me give up this bit of greed. At the same time, the funding fee was too expensive to bear, so I decided to avoid it.

Analysis: This intervention does not have major issues, but this coin is indeed not suitable for shorting anymore. First, the spike was too deep, and a small stop loss could easily be swept, while a large one could easily lead to liquidation; second, the funding fee is too high, charged once every hour, and the money for shorting isn't enough to cover the fees, making the profit-to-cost ratio too low. Of course, from the trend perspective, I believe it is indeed close to the target, and it may only push up a bit more before diving. Those looking for long-term shorts can consider it.
Result: Profit 474 - 150 (U) The cost of the fees was too painful.

$LSK

Record Twenty-One: LSKUSDT (20251204 8:41-15:47)
Opening Price Stop Loss Price Position (U) Direction Stop Loss Amount (U)
0.21594 0.2075 6000 Long 250



Reason for Intervention:
1. There are signs of a breakout rebound on the 15-minute level
2. The recent new low is not far away, hoping for a rebound, and the amount needed for a stop loss is relatively small
3. I was a bit unwilling to accept the previous losses

Process:
Originally had an order for 3000U, but then saw that the upward momentum was quite strong, so I followed up with another order for 3000U. As a result, there was an upward spike, but fortunately, it quickly pulled back up.
Then I continuously placed orders to close positions at 0.2254, 0.2301, and 0.2401, eventually closing all positions at 0.2274

Analysis: Looking back at this trade, there isn’t any particularly reliable reason; I can only say I was lucky. Yesterday, it happened to rebound to a relatively high position. The good part is that I wasn’t overly greedy and reduced positions along the way to lock in most of the profits.
Result: Profit 360 (U)

$PIPPIN
Record Twenty: PIPPINUSDT (20251204 13:39-15:38)
Opening Price Stop Loss Price     Position (U) Direction Stop Loss Amount (U)
0.19775  0.205    2000       Short   150
 
 
 
Reason for Intervention:
1. There is no need for a reason to short pippin, just need to be at the right position
2. According to the downtrend line, this needle is also considered close
3. Pippin's trend is no longer that strong, neither the 3rd nor 4th could break the high of the 2nd, and the 4-hour chart has been declining continuously
 
Process:
Originally had an order for 2000U, but the first time only over 800U was executed, felt not very good, so I closed it at 0.19444, unfortunately forgot to cancel the remaining more than a thousand U order, later around two o'clock it was executed again, and ended up being stopped out at three-thirty.
 
Analysis: This order actually doesn't seem to have much of a problem now, the 4-hour downtrend, there was an upward spike, small position, and the risk is not big, and there were also opportunities for profit in between, but unfortunately I forgot that half of the order was not canceled, a small loss is also acceptable.
Result: Loss of 40 (U)

Record Sixteen-Nineteen: (20251203 )
BTCUSDT (20251203 22:08-22:58) Profit: 240U
ZECUSDT (20251203 23:25-23:18) Profit: 22U
ETHUSDT (20251203 23:24-23:34) Loss: 268U
ETHUSDT (20251203 23:37-00:17) Profit: 277U

Stage Summary: (20251202 - 20251203)
After 15 trades, I opened four more, purely impulsive, three wins and one loss, probably making about 200U. The reason I won't summarize individually is that there's really not much to say. I could come up with a ton of reasons for each trade, but they don't really explain the issues.
Over the course of two days, I made a profit of 1,000U, but it seems like I haven't found any clues. Aside from stop losses and the number of trades, I haven't executed well in other aspects. On the surface, the main issues are as follows:
1. Trend issues: The trades over the past two days have fluctuated between long and short, completely a chaotic battle at the 15-minute level. Opening trades based on feelings leads to situations where the trades feel like hot yams, where I don't dare to hold or wait. So the profit from positions over these two days has only been around 400 to 500U at most.
2. Positioning issues: Due to large positions, there have been problems with stop losses being too small and getting swept. Currently, three trades have been passively stopped out, resulting in a loss of about 400 to 500U, which is quite unfortunate.
3. Intervention issues: Half of the 19 trades were due to hasty intervention, leading to passive narrowing of stop losses.
4. Exit issues: Several trades turned profitable but ended up losing, and there were also several where I exited too hastily, missing out on subsequent profits. For the first three problems, I believe I've recognized them, which means I can address them. It's just a matter of controlling the number of open trades and patiently waiting for opportunities. Better to miss out than to make mistakes. However, regarding the exit issue, I currently have no good solutions. I can only keep learning, summarizing, and trying again. Of course, this isn't just a technical issue; on a psychological level, I need to balance greed and fear well.

In summary, the subsequent execution strategy is:
1. Slow down
Don't rush to open trades; wait a bit, slow down, and move in the direction of the trend. I must wait for right-side opportunities to act. For example, if the overall trend is still a rebound, wouldn't it be steadier to go long after a downward spike?
2. Smaller
Calculate thoroughly, first lock in the amount and price of the stop loss, then calculate the number of open positions accordingly. It has been proven that "greed" does not help you earn more money; instead, it often causes you to miss many opportunities.
3. Steady first, then aggressive
Stability requires locking in principal and profits at the right positions, while aggression should be based on the premise of stability, using remaining profits to pursue bigger opportunities.

Record Fifteen: Failed ZECUSDT (20251203 19:56-23:18)
Opening Price Stop Loss Price Position (Units) Direction Stop Loss Amount (U)
336.55 328 20 Long 180
 
Reason for Intervention:
1. ZEC just quickly surged to 352.25 and then quickly dropped to 318.46, the up and down spikes indicate a possible change in trend.
2. Quickly rebounding from 318 to around 338, it may continue to break through short-term resistance. Since the rebound from 300 points over the past half day, it has been blocked around 338-341.
3. Using a large position with a small stop loss, I’m taking a chance it can push up because I judge the real resistance should be around 375-380.
4. The recent rise of ZEC is actually different from typical altcoins, it has risen nearly 20 times from the end of September to the end of November, with many participants and large amounts of capital involved. It's not the kind that just spikes and runs away, so I don't think it should drop all the way down; perhaps it can rebound again.
 
Process:
Originally set an order at 333.55, but unfortunately, I was afraid of missing out like the previous drop, so I set it high at 336.55. Currently in a floating loss, I hope this time it won’t hit me again. That 11th order was frustrating; just 4 bucks short, it got stopped out, which is annoying.
To be honest, this stop loss setting is indeed a bit small; mainly, I’m concerned about money. I need to consider finding a balance because I currently have less than 3,000 U, and each stop loss is set around 200. Once the funds increase, I can consider enlarging a bit or increasing the position.
There was a breakout to 346, but it still couldn’t hold, subsequently adjusting down, and stopped out at the position of 333.44, later hitting 327 before turning back. So this order cannot be considered a mistake because I set the stop loss at 328 myself; exiting was also a choice.
Analysis: The key for this order is still the position. If the position were small, I could have completely placed the stop loss around 305-310, which would eliminate subsequent issues and allow me to wait for a breakout with peace of mind, closing near 375. Of course, there is also a crucial point that this space itself is too small; it actually falls within the range of optional. A 20-point stop loss, a 40-point take profit, starting with a 10-point may be more appropriate.
Result: Loss of 65 (U)

Record Seven: Failed LSKUSDT (20251203 07:35-22:04)
Opening Price Stop Loss Price Position (U) Direction Stop Loss Amount (U)
0.2252 0.21 2000 Short 135
Reason for Intervention:
1. On the daily level, the current price is still above the five-day moving average, and the four-hour line is also above the five-day line, indicating that the current trend is relatively strong.
2. On the hourly rate, when the previous rate was below one-thousandth, it was easy to trigger a rebound.
3. The trend in recent days has not followed BTC, indicating the presence of a whale.
4. Previously, each time the price reached a new high, it would touch the 180-day moving average; this time the high is still far away, betting on the chance to touch that line again.
5. The previous day saw a significant drop but without increased volume.
Process: After the transaction, it continued to decline, currently the lowest point is 0.2194, then rebounded to 0.2217, continue to observe, both BTC and ETH have shown significant rebounds, and have also reached the previous rebound high, caution is needed, in the future, due to the favorable interest rate cut, it is currently possible to consider a breakout for a long position.
Analysis: The issue with this trade is the poor timing of entry; there isn't much to say, entering this trade is just betting on whether it will rise again, and it proved to be a wrong bet.
Result: Loss of 135 (U)

$ZEC
I am really impressed by this thing, unable to stand 340, closing position and admitting defeat

$BTC Therefore, strictly controlling the number of positions is absolutely a particularly important matter. If extreme market conditions occur and there are too many positions, it can lead to a chain of stop losses or even a chain of liquidations, which is even more terrifying than holding a single position.

What happened to $BTC , why did it suddenly crash?

Is it a good choice to chase a big pancake at this location $BTC ? 93066 more, stop loss 92600? Unfortunately, I currently have three positions and should not open more.

Record Thirteen: Partial Success BTCUSDT (20251203 18:46-20:01)
Opening Price Stop Loss Price Position (Units) Direction Stop Loss Amount (U)
92922.1 93200 0.5 Short 200

Reason for Involvement:
1. After Bitcoin broke through the high point of November 28 in the afternoon, it did not surge too high, but instead quickly retraced, which can be considered as failing to stabilize the breakthrough; therefore, the subsequent movement can only be a pullback for accumulation.
2. During the upward breakthrough, the price rose, but the hour-level MACD bars continued to shorten, indicating divergence.
3. It has been consolidating around 93000 for three to four hours; as the saying goes, prolonged consolidation must lead to a drop, so a slight bearish outlook can be considered at this level.

Process: Currently, I am not concerned about the trades in hand; after all, I hope it can reach a new high again, and I have opened a total of 1,000 U, so let’s ignore it for now. It’s also difficult for LSK to perform as I hoped, but I will open another position if the opportunity is right, hoping for a good result.
An order was closed at 92666.5 for 0.2 units, and I will see what to do with the remaining 0.3 units.
The remaining part was sold at 92876.5 because I opened a long position in ZEC, and I now have 4 positions in hand. My expectations for this position were not very high, so I believe it’s better to exit early for peace of mind.
Analysis: .
Result: Profit (47U)

Record Fourteen: PIPPINUSDT (20251203 :-:) is temporarily not open
Reason for Intervention:
1. From the chart above, it has already fallen out of the lower edge of the rising channel, which has not happened before. Previously, it briefly recovered and then quickly broke down. So, should we consider opening a short position at 0.204321 with a stop loss set at 0.22?
2. Additionally, from the perspective of trading volume, it has been continuously shrinking in recent days. The previous drop of ZEC started with a decline in trading volume. Does this indicate a decrease in attention?

Process:
I placed an order and will wait to see if it gets filled. The funding cost for this coin is too high. I made a profit of 300 yesterday, but the funding cost was over 50, so I hurriedly closed it this morning.

Record Eleven: Failed ZECUSDT (20251203 14:51-18:24)
Opening Price Stop Loss Price Position (units) Direction Stop Loss Amount (U)
331.35 347 10 Short 160

Reason for Intervention:
1. ZEC has gone through a quite long period of increase, with prices rising from over forty to a peak of 775. Although it has already dropped by half, it still has a tenfold increase.
2. Since yesterday, Bitcoin has rebounded nearly 10 points, while ZEC hasn't exceeded yesterday's opening price, showing very weak performance. Following the principle of shorting at highs, the current price is already close to the 4-hour moving averages of 5 and 10.
3. After falling back around 340 for three consecutive hourly candles, it can be considered to place the stop loss at 340.
Process: After the transaction, it has now rebounded to 335. Considering yesterday's trend, the stop loss has been adjusted to 470, continuing to observe, and there may be a possibility to add another position around 338.
Analysis: The previous analysis was not too problematic, but the timing of entry was indeed a bit early, not waiting for the upward spike to finish before entering. This was actually one of the opening principles I set for myself earlier. Perhaps after a few successful trades, I got a bit carried away and forgot the lesson. I initially wanted to open another position directly at 338, but unfortunately, I missed it. Well, I'll wait for another opportunity; it's a pity it was only 4 dollars above my stop loss price.
Result: Loss (160U)

$BTC
My bloody lesson
1. Control your position; greed is the deadliest enemy that leads to liquidation.
2. Control your anger; don't get too emotional. Continuous failures can make everything uncontrollable.
3. Strictly judge the conditions for entry; do not change them casually. You cannot open a position just because of temporary thoughts.
4. Any copycat that moves with the market has no need for intervention, because apart from its own movement, it is also affected by the market, adding an extra risk factor.
5. Copycat high entries are feasible, but position and stop-loss must be strictly controlled. A stop-loss area of over 50% can be set, but it cannot be omitted, and one should take profits when they arise.
6. Each maximum stop-loss must not exceed 10% of total funds. Any position that exceeds this limit must be prohibited.
7. When each profit reaches the stop-loss, first close half of the position to meet the basic requirement of capital preservation.
8. Use daily lines to judge trends, 4-hour lines to judge ranges, and 15-minute lines to judge entry timing.
9. You must ensure that you enter at the second buy or sell point.
10. Do not open positions against the trend; trends can be short but must exist. Pay attention to the ranges where trends change.
11. Regarding mindset, when one successfully captures, everything feels promising, but when facing continuous failures, life seems bleak. Human emotions inevitably fluctuate greatly, and being able to maintain stability is a form of cultivation.
12. Do not exceed 2 open positions simultaneously; having too many positions can lead to extreme market conditions, and the effect is the same as having overly large stop losses.

Stage Summary: (20251203 14:16)
Since the project started yesterday, there has only been 2,000 U, it's really like walking on thin ice. Before the project started, I set 12 rules based on lessons learned from bitter experiences, but right from the start, I lost two trades. The pressure is indeed quite large, so I opened a document to list every trade executed, wanting to summarize the failures properly.
Really, when you think about it a thousand times in your head, once you write it down, many things start to take shape. I seem to understand the reasons for the mistakes in the first two trades, so in the following trades, I will try my best to avoid them.
Currently, there have been ten trades, 7 wins, 2 losses, and 1 ongoing. The current trading capital is 3,200 U. Although there is some luck involved, by keeping records, I confirmed that after placing a trade, I became aware of the risks and effectively avoided them. Therefore, I want to stick to this method as much as possible, hoping to maintain vigilance in the future and keep pushing forward. To all the friends struggling in the contracts, let's encourage each other...