卡卡哥lucas

December 11, 2025, 10:40 AM ETH Market Analysis (Bearish)
From the 4-hour chart, the candlestick shows a trend of rising followed by a sharp decline. The price is running around 3223.28, and the Bollinger Bands are widening, corresponding to 3320.24, 3345.61, and 3294.87.

The short-term MA indicators MA5 and MA10 have crossed downwards and are widening, while the medium to long-term moving averages are arranged in a way that forms a unilateral downward trend.

MACD Indicator: The MACD double lines are above the 0 axis, with a bearish cross downwards and increasing bearish momentum.

RSI Indicator: The current value of RSI14 is 33.67, approaching the oversold stage.
$ETH

December 10, 2025 11:30 ETH Market Analysis + Strategy #ETH走势分析
From the 4-hour chart, the candlestick shows a high rebound trend. The price is running around 3309.4, and the Bollinger Bands are widening, corresponding to 3326.36, 3136.06, 2946.14.

The short-term MA moving averages MA5 and MA10 have a golden cross and are widening upwards, while the medium to long-term moving averages are arranged in sequence to form a unilateral upward trend.

MACD Indicator: The MACD double lines are above the 0 axis, the double lines are parallel and then rise, indicating stronger bullish momentum.

RSI Indicator: RSI14 current value is 67.73, close to the overbought stage.

Trading Strategy:​

Long: The trigger signal is when the price has difficulty retracing at 3250.

Entry: Around 3250.

Stop Loss: Set around 3220.

Take Profit: Around 3350.

Short: The trigger signal is near 3360.

Entry: Around 3360.

Stop Loss: Set around 3400.

Take Profit: Around 3240.

Can it rise to 3300 when I wake up from a sleep?🤩#美联储重启降息步伐 $ETH

November 28, 2025 11:27 ETH Market Analysis + Strategy (Bullish Outlook) #加密市场反弹
From the 4-hour chart, the candlestick shows a fluctuating upward trend with a possibility of a pullback. The price is running around 3007.1, and the Bollinger Bands are trending upwards, corresponding to 3074.19, 2967.18, and 2860.17.
The short-term MA lines MA5 and MA10 are widening after a crossover and are now converging, while MA30 and MA60 form a golden cross, indicating a small pullback in the upward trend (watching the strong support level at 2967).
MACD Indicator: The MACD dual lines are above the 0 axis, converging after being parallel, with the bullish momentum weakening.
RSI Indicator: RSI14 current value is 58.5, which is within the normal trading phase.
Trading Strategy: ​
Long: Trigger signal is when the price struggles to pull back below 2970
Entry: Around 2970
Stop Loss: Set around 2940
Take Profit: Around 3100
Short: Trigger signal is near 3070 (fluctuating high point)
Entry: Around 3070
Stop Loss: Around 3100
Take Profit: Around 2930
$ETH

November 25, 2025, 17:30 ETH Market Analysis + Strategy (Bullish on Pullback) #加密市场反弹
From the 4-hour chart, the candlestick shows a fluctuating upward trend, with a clear pullback direction. The price is running around 2910.64, and the Bollinger Bands are widening with three lines moving upward, corresponding to 2989.26, 2836.59, and 2766.7.
The short-term MA indicators MA5 and MA10 have formed a golden cross upward and are creating a silver ingot shape with MA60, indicating an upward trend.
MACD Indicator: The MACD double line is above the 0 axis, and after the golden cross, the lines are parallel; bullish momentum is increasing.
RSI Indicator: The current value of RSI14 is 52.8, which is within a normal trading phase.
Trading Strategy:
Long Position: The trigger signal is when the price struggles to bottom out at 2860
Entry: Around 2860
Stop Loss: Set around 2820
Take Profit: Around 3040
Short Position: The trigger signal is near 2960
Entry: Around 2960
Stop Loss: Set around 3040
Take Profit: Around 2820
$ETH

On November 25, the Polymarket website showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December had reached 81%; the CME 'FedWatch' tool's data also indicated that this probability rose to 76.7%. Just a month ago, this rate cut probability was around 90%, having previously dropped to 32.7% due to internal disagreements, but now, driven by dovish statements from several core officials, expectations have sharply increased again. At the same time, institutions like Goldman Sachs have also clearly predicted that the Federal Reserve will implement its third consecutive rate cut in December. #美联储何时降息？

November 25, 2025 10:28 ETH Market Analysis + Strategy (Bullish on Pullback) #加密市场回调
From the 4-hour chart, the candlestick shows a fluctuating upward trend, with a clear pullback direction. The price is operating near 2914.27, and the Bollinger Bands are widening, corresponding to 2943.54, 2822.2, and 2686.82.
The short-term MA moving averages MA5 and MA10 have crossed above MA30, with medium to long-term moving averages acting as resistance above, indicating an upward trend.
MACD Indicator: The MACD double lines are near the 0 axis, with a bullish crossover, and bullish momentum is strengthening.
RSI Indicator: RSI14 current value is 55.45, which is in a normal trading phase.
Trading Strategy:​
Long: Trigger signal is when the price struggles to reach the bottom at 2800
Entry: Around 2770
Stop Loss: Set around 2740
Take Profit: Around 2920
Short: Trigger signal is near 2960 (MA60 resistance point)
Entry: Around 2960
Stop Loss: Around 3000
Take Profit: Around 2820

November 22, 2025 15:07 ETH Market Analysis + Strategy (Looking for a Pullback) #行情分析📈
From the 4-hour chart, the candlestick shows a volatile downward trend, with no clear pullback direction. The price is operating near 2760.81, and the Bollinger Bands are opening three lines downward, corresponding to 3167.4, 2889.57, and 2611.75.
The short-term MA moving averages MA5 and MA10 have crossed and are gradually forming a golden cross after expanding. The medium to long-term moving averages are arranged in a way that forms a downward trend.
MACD Indicator: The MACD double lines are below the 0 axis, and the lines are parallel and then moving downwards, with a dead cross opening narrowing, while bullish momentum is accumulating.
RSI Indicator: RSI14 current value is 35.18, close to the oversold stage.
Trading Strategy:
Long: Trigger signal is when the price struggles to bottom at 2680.
Entry: Around 2680
Stop Loss: Set around 2620
Take Profit: Around 2880
Short: Trigger signal is near 2880 (MA20 resistance point).
Entry: Around 2900
Stop Loss: Around 2950
Take Profit: Around 2750
$ETH

November 21, 2025 16:20 ETH Market Analysis + Strategy (Continued Bearish) #加密市场观察
From the 4-hour chart, the candlestick shows a one-sided downward trend. The price is running around 2744, with the Bollinger Bands opening and all three lines trending downwards, corresponding to 3229, 3019.53, and 2727.86.
The short-term moving averages MA5 and MA10 have crossed downwards, and the medium to long-term averages are arranged in a way that forms a one-sided downward trend.
MACD Indicator: The MACD double lines are below the 0 axis, the double lines have crossed downwards and the opening is widening, indicating a downward direction, with bearish volume continuing to strengthen.
RSI Indicator: RSI14 current value is 30, indicating an oversold stage.
Trading Strategy:
Long: Trigger signal is when the price struggles to find a bottom around 2720.
Entry: Around 2720
Stop Loss: Set around 2680
Take Profit: Around 2860
Short: Trigger signal is near 2900 (MA10 resistance point)
Entry: Around 2900
Stop Loss: Around 2960
Take Profit: Around 2750
$ETH

(Yesterday a buddy made 500u at my point, I have received the 5% commission for the post, thank you for your trust)
November 20, 14:20 ETH market analysis + strategy (continuously bearish) #加密市场观察
From the 4-hour chart, the candlestick shows a volatile downward trend. The price is running around 3034, the Bollinger Bands are opening downward with three lines corresponding to 3224.04, 3068.35, 2912.65.
The short-term MA moving averages MA5 and MA10 intersect to show a dark cloud cover pattern (a common pattern after a short-term consolidation during a downtrend), with MA30, MA60, MA120, MA240 sequentially arranged to form a unilateral downward trend.
MACD indicator: The MACD double lines are below the 0 axis, the double lines are nearly parallel after crossing, indicating a sideways volatile trend.
RSI indicator: RSI14 current value is 45.14, which is within the normal trading phase.
Trading strategy:​
Long: Trigger signal is when the price stabilizes around 2960
Entry: Around 2950
Stop loss: Set around 2900
Take profit: Around 3080
Short: Trigger signal is around 3100 (MA20 pressure point)
Entry: Around 3100
Stop loss: Around 3150
Take profit: Around 2960
$ETH

November 19, 2025 15:30 ETH Market Analysis + Strategy (Bearish) #美股2026预测 #ETH
From the 4-hour chart, the candlestick shows a volatile market trend. The price is running around 3050, and the Bollinger Bands are opening downwards, corresponding to 3244.51, 3108.87, and 2973.23.
The short-term MA indicators MA5 and MA10 intersect to show a dark cloud cover pattern (a common pattern after a short-term consolidation during a downtrend), and MA30, MA60, MA120, and MA240 are arranged in a way that forms a one-sided downtrend.
MACD Indicator: The MACD double lines are below the 0 axis, and the double lines are nearly parallel after crossing, indicating a sideways trend.
RSI Indicator: RSI14 current value is 41.46, which is in a normal trading phase.
Trading Strategy:​
Long: Trigger signal is when the price stabilizes around 2980
Entry: Around 3000
Stop Loss: Set around 2960
Take Profit: Around 3120
Short: Trigger signal is around 3100 (MA5 resistance point)
Entry: Around 3100
Stop Loss: Set around 3150
Take Profit: Around 2980

Two-day signal: #美股2026预测 #ETH
November 18th, US spot Ethereum ETF net outflow of $74.68 million
November 17th, US spot Ethereum ETF net outflow of $183 million

November 18, 2025 10:57 ETH Market Analysis + Strategy ##美联储何时降息？
From the 4-hour chart, the candlestick shows a phase of oscillating decline. The price is running around 3003, and the Bollinger Bands are opening.
Short-term MA moving averages MA5 and MA10 have crossed downward, with MA30, MA60, MA120, and MA240 arranged in a sequence forming a unilateral downward trend.
MACD indicator: The MACD double line is below the 0 axis; after crossing, the two lines are almost parallel, indicating a sideways oscillation trend.
RSI indicator: RSI14 current value is 35.85, close to the oversold phase.
Trading strategy:
Going long: The trigger signal is when the price stabilizes around 2960.
Entry: Around 3000.
Stop loss: Set around 2960.
Take profit: Around 3160.
Going short: The trigger signal is when it is difficult to break through around 3120.
Entry: Around 3120.
Stop loss: Set around 3180.
Take profit: Around 2980.
$ETH

A simple review of my trading strategy from yesterday: I mentioned that the short entry at 3250 would be difficult to break through, but I didn't expect ETH to be so disappointing, resulting in a 27-point error. I only made about 123 points at the take profit point, which is still too conservative; I could have achieved a maximum of 250 points #美国失业率 $ETH

November 17, 2025 14:30 ETH Market Analysis + Strategy #加密市场回调
From the 4-hour chart, the candlestick indicates a consolidation phase. The price is hovering around 3189, with the Bollinger Bands trending downward; the key point is whether it can stabilize and break through the support level.
Short-term MA indicators MA5 and MA10 have crossed and are now parallel, while the medium to long-term moving averages MA30 and MA60 are showing a unilateral downtrend.
MACD Indicator: The MACD double line is near the 0 axis, and after crossing, it remains parallel, with both bearish and bullish volumes in a weak state.
RSI Indicator: RSI14 current value is 44.46, indicating a normal trading phase.
Trading Strategy:​
Going Long: Trigger signal is the price stabilizing around 3090
Entry: Around 3090
Stop Loss: Set around 3040
Take Profit: Above 3250
Going Short: Trigger signal is difficulty breaking through around 3250
Entry: Around 3250
Stop Loss: Set around 3300​
Take Profit: Around 3100 $ETH

November 14, 2025 14:30 ETH Market Analysis + Strategy #美国失业率
From the 4-hour chart, the candlestick shows a consolidation phase after a waterfall decline, currently in a pullback stage at a support level due to the impact of last night's sharp decline in US stocks. The price is running around 3230, with the Bollinger Bands trending downwards, key point to watch is whether it can stabilize and break through the support level.
Short-term MA moving average MA5 crosses from above to below MA10 forming a death cross, crossing through MA30 and MA60 mid-to-long-term moving averages forming a one-sided downward trend.
MACD Indicator: The MACD dual lines are below the 0 axis, the dual lines have a death cross and the gap is widening, strong bearish volume.
RSI Indicator: RSI14 current value is 33.26, indicating an oversold phase.
Trading Strategy:​
Long: Trigger signal is when the price stabilizes around 3150
Entry: Around 3150
Stop Loss: Set around 3100
Take Profit: Above 3300
Short: Trigger signal is when it is difficult to break through around 3380
Entry: Around 3380
Stop Loss: Around 3425​
Take Profit: Around 3100
$ETH

Unfortunately, unfortunately, hesitation led to defeat.

Yesterday's ETH analysis review #ETH

Yesterday afternoon at 15:00, I mentioned that the resistance level of 3547 was difficult to maintain after breaking through, and the short strategy took effect, reaching the take profit point of 3390 between 22:00 and 23:00, earning 157 points.

Is there a chance for me to short with a loan and a white bar in this Ethereum trend?

November 13, 2025 14:30 ETH Market Analysis + Strategy #美国结束政府停摆 #ETH
From the 4-hour chart, the recent candlestick patterns show a standard W shape, influenced by the U.S. government's end of the shutdown last night, and currently in a phase of retracement up to a support level. The price is running around 3530, with the Bollinger Bands opening parallel, still mainly fluctuating, looking to see if it can stabilize and break through the middle track line.
Short-term MA averages: MA5 has crossed MA10 from above creating a death cross, crossing through the MA30 and MA60 medium to long-term averages. The candlestick broke through the MA5 indicator after a high trading volume.
MACD Indicator: The MACD double lines are near the 0 axis, parallel after the death cross, and the bearish momentum is weakening.
RSI Indicator: The RSI14 current value is 54, which is in a normal trading phase.
Trading Strategy:

Long: The triggering signal is for the price to stabilize around 3547
Entry: 3547 Stop Loss: set at 3460 Take Profit: 3655

Short: The triggering signal is for it to struggle to break through around 3547
Entry: 3547 Stop Loss: 3600 Take Profit: 3390
$ETH