汐汐高反福利官

As of December 16, 2025, 20:25 (Beijing time), the ETH price is approximately $2930, with a 24-hour decline of about 6.1%. The overall trend is showing a weak downward movement, linked to BTC's weakness.

Core Market and Key Levels

• Daily Rhythm: The daytime session lost the psychological barrier of $3000, with low-level fluctuations in the evening, dominated by bears, and bulls lacking momentum.

• Key Support: $2900-$2850 (strong support at $2850); Key Resistance: $3000-$3020, strong resistance at $3080-$3130.

Technical Highlights

• 4 Hours: Price is near the lower Bollinger band, MA5/MA10 death cross, RSI has exited the oversold zone but the rebound is weak, MACD continues bearish divergence below the zero line.

• 1 Hour: Alternating between bulls and bears but without a clear turning point, high probability of short-term adjustment,建议以反弹高空为主.

Evening Trend Judgment

There is a high probability of continuing weak low-level fluctuations, first checking the effectiveness of the $2900 support; if it falls below $2900, look down to $2850-$2800; if it rebounds and breaks through $3020, it may briefly test $3050, but the overall bearish sentiment remains unchanged, and the rebound space is limited.

On December 16, 2025, Ethereum continued its weak oscillation trend during the afternoon, with specific market and technical analysis as follows:

1. Price Performance: In the afternoon, Ethereum fluctuated around $2940, having previously dipped below the critical support level of $2960 in the morning, reaching a low of $2892. Although it rebounded slightly from the low, it still showed a significant drop compared to the daily high and failed to regain the psychological level of $3000, maintaining a weak correlation with Bitcoin overall.

2. Technical Aspect: The daily line closed with a bearish candle and is below the middle Bollinger Band. The 4-hour MA10 and MA5 moving averages formed a death cross, indicating a clear bearish trend; however, the RSI indicator has moved out of the oversold area, suggesting a short-term need for slight recovery. Short-term resistance is concentrated in the $3020 - $3050 range, with strong resistance in the $3080 - $3130 range, while key support to watch is in the $2900 - $2850 area.

3. Market Correlation: Influenced by the liquidation of long positions across the network, market panic has not dissipated. If Bitcoin cannot stop its decline at $85000 and further breaks down, it will likely lead Ethereum to fall below the $2850 support level. However, on-chain data shows that Ethereum whale positions have not significantly loosened, and institutional confidence in its long-term technical upgrade benefits has not been greatly shaken, providing some underlying support.

As of December 15, 2025, 13:20 (Beijing time), BTC is showing a bearish dominant weak downward trend, currently reported at approximately 88,200 USD, with a daily decline of about 2.2%, and a low of 87,967.8 USD, with over 270 million USD liquidated in the last 24 hours, indicating a high proportion of long positions.

1. Core Prices and Key Levels

• Real-time Price: ≈88,200 USD; Daily Highs and Lows: 87,967-90,400 USD

• Key Support: 88,000 USD (if broken, look to 85,000 USD); Key Resistance: 90,000-90,400 USD (including CME futures gap)

2. Technical Overview

• Daily: Three consecutive bearish candles breaking previous lows, forming a descending N-shaped structure, moving averages in a bearish arrangement

• 4-hour: MACD crossing below the zero line, increasing bearish momentum; RSI oversold, short-term may have a weak rebound but difficult to change the downward trend

3. Driving Forces and Judgments

• Main Reasons: The cooling expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, institutions lowering target prices, and weakening buying power from large holders, leading to selling pressure and long position liquidations

• Short-term Judgment: If the 88,000 USD support is broken, it may accelerate downward to 85,000 USD; if the rebound fails to hold above 90,000 USD, the main strategy remains short-selling

4. Operations and Risk Warning

• Short-term: If it rebounds to 90,000-90,400 USD, a light short position can be attempted, stop loss at 92,000 USD, target below 88,000 USD; currently, it is not recommended to blindly catch the bottom

• Risks: Increased volatility, contracts need strict control of positions and stop losses; the above is market analysis,

December 14th 19:00 ETH Market Overview

• Current Price: $3110 (24H fluctuation $3063-$3135, +0.5%, volume relatively weak)

• Core Judgment: Fluctuating bearish, with 3100 as the strong/weak boundary, likely to narrow consolidation in the evening, waiting for a directional breakthrough

🎯 Key Price Levels (from near to far)

• Support: $3075-$3090 (strong intraday support); $3000 (psychological/technical strong support); $2950 (previously dense trading area)

• Resistance: $3150-$3180 (4H Bollinger middle track/intraday strong resistance); $3235 (recent rebound high); $3310 (50-day EMA key resistance)

📊 Technical Analysis (4H/Daily)

• RSI(14): About 46, neutral to weak, no overbought or oversold

• MACD: Daily has golden cross signs, but 4H has not yet expanded, rebound momentum insufficient

• Pattern: Weak rebound after a downward fluctuation, no clear reversal signal, bears dominate

• Volume: Weekend trading light, hourly trading volume continues to shrink, hard to have large fluctuations

1. If the rebound to **$3150-$3180** meets resistance, can lightly short, stop loss at $3200, target $3090-$3075

2. If it pulls back to **$3075-$3090** and stabilizes, can lightly long, stop loss at $3050, target $3130-$3150

3. If it breaks below $3075 and expands, watch $3000; if it stabilizes above $3180 and expands, look up to $3235

• Weekend liquidity is low, fluctuations are easy to magnify, strictly control positions and stop losses

• Pay attention to BTC trend correlation; if BTC breaks below $9000, ETH may follow down.

As of December 14 at 13:30 (UTC+8), Bitcoin (BTC) is reported at 90350 USDT, with a slight decline of about 0.5% during the day. Trading volume is light over the weekend, with narrow fluctuations around the 90,000 mark.

1. Core Price Levels

• Support: 88800-89500 USDT (4-hour Bollinger Band lower edge/recent high transaction area), strong support at 87000 USDT (20-day EMA)

• Resistance: 91800-92200 USDT (4-hour Bollinger Band middle edge), strong resistance at 94000-94200 USDT (Fibonacci retracement level/downward trendline)

2. Technical Overview

• Daily RSI ≈ 49 (neutral), MACD green bars are shortening, showing signs of stabilization in the short term but momentum is weak

• 4-hour chart: Price hovers below the middle edge, low trading volume, a double top pattern is emerging, direction is unclear

• Overall Pattern: In a recovery period after a pullback, range-bound fluctuations have not broken, and a breakout needs volume to confirm the trend

3. Key Drivers and Risks

• Bullish: Whale addresses continue to accumulate, institutional layout intentions remain, and expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut persist

• Risks: Bitcoin is fluctuating around the 90,000 mark, with significant interlocking effects; low liquidity over the weekend may amplify volatility

4. Trading Strategy (for dissemination)

1. Short-term: A rebound to 91800-92200 may face resistance, consider light short positions; stabilization upon a pullback to 88800-89500 may allow for light long positions, strict stop-loss advised

2. Medium-term: Stabilizing above 94000 indicates a stronger trend, target at 97500; breaking below 87000 warrants caution for a drop to 85000-86000

3. Reminder: Poor liquidity over the weekend may distort volatility, control position size, and be cautious of slippage risks.

As of December 14, 13:30 (UTC+8), Ethereum (ETH) is reported at 3115 USDT, with a slight increase of about 0.8% during the day, and lower liquidity over the weekend, resulting in overall narrow fluctuations.

1. Core Price Levels

• Support: 3050-3080 USDT (recent low/4-hour Bollinger Band lower line), strong support at 3000 USDT (psychological barrier)

• Resistance: 3160-3180 USDT (4-hour Bollinger Band middle line), strong resistance at 3310 USDT (50-day EMA)

2. Technical Overview

• Daily RSI ≈ 54 (neutral to bullish), MACD shows signs of a golden cross, short-term momentum is positive

• 4-hour chart: price fluctuating below the middle line, insufficient volume, waiting for direction choice

• Overall Pattern: still in the recovery phase after the previous adjustment, has not broken free from range fluctuations, a breakthrough needs volume confirmation

3. Key Drivers and Risks

• Positive: After the Fusaka upgrade, on-chain efficiency has improved, institutional layout willingness remains

• Risks: Bitcoin is fluctuating around the 90,000 mark, linked pressure; light trading over the weekend, volatility can be amplified

4. Trading Ideas (for dissemination)

1. Short-term: if a rebound reaches 3160-3180 meets resistance, a light short position can be tried; if it retraces to 3050-3080 and stabilizes, a light long position can be tried, with strict stop-loss

2. Medium-term: if it stabilizes above 3310, the trend turns strong, aiming for 3500+; if it falls below 3000, be cautious of a drop to 2900-2950

3. Reminder: liquidity is poor over the weekend, fluctuations may be distorted, control positions, and beware of slippage risk

December 13 BTC Market Review (13:00 Beijing Time)

• Current Price: Approximately $90,500, slight decline during the day, with a fluctuation of about 2%, oscillating around $90,000-$91,000.

• Core Rhythm: Weekend trading is relatively light, with bulls and bears repeatedly contesting between $90,000-$92,000, waiting for directional choice.

Key Price Levels

• Support: First level $90,000 (psychological barrier + short-term chip concentration area); strong support $89,000-$89,500 (4-hour Bollinger Band lower track + EMA support).

• Resistance: First level $92,000-$93,000 (multiple selling pressure points + Bollinger Band upper track); strong resistance $94,000 (recent high point).

Technical Overview

• 4-hour Chart: MACD contraction, DIF and DEA death cross, short-term bearish; Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with obvious oscillation characteristics.

• Daily Chart: RSI around 58, not overbought; 20/50-day moving average golden cross, medium-term bullish structure intact, with $90,000 as the short-term watershed.

• Funding Aspect: Approximately $170 million in liquidations across the network in 24 hours, with a high proportion of long positions; futures funding rates slightly positive, sentiment not overheated.

Short-term Strategy Reference

• Oscillation strategy as the main focus: Lightly test long positions near $90,000-$91,000, stop loss at $89,000, target $92,000-$93,000; if a rebound to $92,500-$93,000 encounters resistance, can lightly test short positions, stop loss at $93,500, target $91,000.

• Breakout strategy: Pursue long positions if breaking above $93,000 with volume, looking at $94,000-$95,000; exit and observe if breaking below $89,000, be cautious of a drop to $87,500.

December 12 Evening Ethereum Market Analysis: Intensifying Long and Short Game, Key Support Level Becomes the Focus

On December 12, the Ethereum market entered a critical game phase after intraday fluctuations, influenced by short-term technical adjustments and capital differentiation. The price oscillated around the $3200 mark, continuing a trend of fluctuations in the evening, with directional signals still unclear.

As of December 12 at 18:00, the spot price of Ethereum was reported at $3242.01 (approximately 23083.11 yuan), with a 24-hour high of $3272.93 and a low of $3144.32, resulting in a volatility of 4.06%, a 24-hour increase of 1.548%, and a transaction volume of $263 million, maintaining a medium level of market activity. From the short-term price performance, Ethereum failed to stabilize after breaking through $3300 on December 10, subsequently entering a correction phase. Although there was a slight rebound during the day, the upward momentum was insufficient, indicating that the $3350-$3400 range formed significant resistance.

The capital situation showed obvious differentiation characteristics. On one hand, institutional funds continued to flow in, providing long-term support. On December 12 Eastern Time, Ethereum spot ETF realized a net inflow of $274 million, maintaining a trend of capital inflow for 14 consecutive days, with BlackRock's ETHA seeing a single-day net inflow of $202 million, and a historical total net inflow of $3.19 billion, reflecting institutional recognition of Ethereum's ecological value. On the other hand, short-term profit-taking triggered volatility. Intraday on-chain data indicated that some short-term investors reduced their holdings above $3250, making it difficult for prices to sustain an upward trend. Within 24 hours, Ethereum contracts faced a liquidation of $61,420, with significant differences between long and short positions.

December 12 BTC Market Update (13:00, UTC+8)

• Price: Approximately 89,850 USD, daily **-2.5%, fell below the 90,000** integer mark

• Core Rhythm: After the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, it peaked and then pulled back, entering a high-level oscillation skewed to the downside, waiting for new guidance

Key Price Levels (USD)

• Resistance: 93,000-94,000 (dense selling pressure area), 94,589 (previous high)

• Support: 88,000-89,000 (bullish lifeline), 87,719, 83,822

Technical Overview

• 4-hour: MACD dead cross, bearish momentum still present; RSI neutral to bearish, Bollinger Bands flat, oscillation unchanged

• Hourly: Weak rebound, short-term pullback risk increasing

Market and Operational Tips

• Sentiment: Fearful bias, risk aversion increasing, funds leaning towards wait-and-see

• Drivers: Focus on Federal Reserve officials' speeches, U.S. Treasury yields and U.S. stock market linkage, affecting short-term liquidity expectations

• Operations (short-term):

◦ Long Position: If it stabilizes after a pullback to 88,000-89,000, a small position can be tried for long, stop loss at 87,500, target 91,000-92,000

◦ Short Position: If resistance is met at 92,500-93,000 during a rebound, a short can be tried, stop loss at 93,500, target 90,000-89,000

◦ Risk Control: Position ≤ 30%, strict stop loss, avoid chasing highs and cutting losses in a volatile market

As of December 11, 18:40, the ETH price is approximately $3350. After the Federal Reserve's decision, it peaked and then fell back. The evening is likely to fluctuate upwards, but caution is advised for a pullback.

1. Core Key Levels

• Resistance: 3400-3450 (intraday high + trapped positions), 3570-3590 (golden ratio + trend top)

• Support: 3250-3280 (short-term moving average + previous high turning into support), 3100-3150 (50-day moving average + psychological level), 3000 (strong pivot)

2. Technical Overview

• Daily: Five consecutive bullish candles, above EMA60, MACD golden cross with increased volume, but RSI is overbought, with divergence risk

• 4-Hour: After the breakout of the ascending triangle, it fell back, MACD shows top divergence, volume is shrinking, short-term is likely to consolidate and fluctuate

• 1-Hour: Bollinger Bands are tightening, moving averages are intertwined, the evening is very likely to fluctuate within the 3280-3400 range

3. Long and Short Signals and Strategies

• Bullish Signal: Stabilizing above 3390 with increased volume, target 3450→3570; on-chain exchange ETH supply is at a historical low, selling pressure is light

• Bearish Signal: Falling below 3250 with increased volume, caution for a pullback to 3100; NUPL entering the "Optimistic - Anxious" zone, strong willingness to realize profits

• Operation Advice (not investment advice): Light long positions on pullbacks to 3280-3300, stop-loss below 3250; light short positions on rebounds to 3400-3430, stop-loss above 3450; strictly control position size and set stop-losses

4. Risk Warning

• Linked to BTC volatility, pay attention to the breakthrough/breakdown situation in the $92000-93000 range

• If there is a significant volume breakout of key levels in the evening, volatility may increase, be cautious of chasing highs and cutting losses.

12.10 Evening ETH Market (19:00)

• Current Price: 3316 USDT, 24h increase of about 6.15%; after peaking at 3397 during the day, it retreated, and is currently in a fluctuating consolidation, focusing on the Federal Reserve's decision.

• Core Drivers: The FOMC decision is the biggest variable, with the market betting on a 25bp rate cut, strong expectations for easing; the fundamentals have strengthened after the Fusaka upgrade.

Key Levels (Evening)

• Support: 3280-3240 (daily low + previous resistance turned support), strong support at 3190-3100 (MA30 + psychological level).

• Resistance: 3350-3400 (daily high + previous high), strong resistance at 3450-3500 (weekly key level).

Technical Analysis

• Four consecutive daily gains, moving averages in a bullish arrangement, K-line firmly above MA30 (3050), clear bullish trend; RSI over 70, indicates a short-term need for a pullback and correction.

• The hourly chart shows an intact upward channel, with higher lows and new highs; the Bollinger Bands are opening upwards, with prices oscillating between the middle and upper bands. If there is a pullback to 3280 and stabilizes, there is still upward momentum.

Evening Strategy

• Bullish: Stabilize and go long at 3280-3240 on pullback, stop loss at 3200, target 3350-3400; if breaking 3400, look for 3450+.

• Bearish: Light short if encountering resistance at 3400-3450, stop loss at 3480, target 3350-3300; if breaking below 3200, then look for 3190-3100.

• Risk Control: Increased volatility before the decision, position ≤ 30%, set stop losses carefully, avoid chasing highs.

On December 10, 2025, at 15:20, BTC is currently reported at 92800 USD, with a 24-hour increase of 2.8%. After peaking at 94555 in the early morning, it fell back. High volatility before the Federal Reserve's decision, with intensified long and short battles.

Key Points

• Key Price Levels: Short-term core 92000-93500; resistance at 94000-95000, support at 91500-92000, strong support at 90000, if it breaks below, watch for 89000-90000.

• Technical Analysis: Daily bullish structure but slowing momentum, four-hour Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with increased volatility; volume is moderate, caution against false breakouts.

• Capital and Sentiment: Slight inflow of ETF funds, increased short liquidations; market focuses on the Federal Reserve's decision, waiting for policy guidance.

Operational Thoughts

• Focus on Range: Buy low at 92000-92500, sell high at 93500-94000, stop loss at 500-800 points each.

• Breakout Strategy: If it stabilizes above 94000, look for 95000; if it breaks below 91500, watch for 90000, if it breaks 90000, then look for 89000.

• Risk Control First: Light positions, strict position control, avoid heavy speculation before the decision.

On December 10, 2025, at 15:10, ETH is currently priced at 3115 USD, with a slight increase of 0.2% in the last 24 hours, fluctuating within a range while waiting for direction.

Key Points

• Price Range: The short-term core is between 3050-3180, with resistance at 3180-3240 and support at 3050-3000, where 3000 is a key psychological level.

• Technical Analysis: The daily chart shows consecutive bullish candles and higher highs, but momentum is weakening; moving averages are intertwined, and the Bollinger Bands are contracting, indicating clear oscillation characteristics.

• Capital and Sentiment: There is a slight inflow of funds into the Layer2 ecosystem, with a standoff between bulls and bears, waiting for guidance from the Federal Reserve's policy, with moderate volume and converging volatility.

Operation Strategy

• Range-Based: Buy low at 3050-3080 and sell high at 3150-3180, with stop losses set at 30-50 points each.

• Breakout Strategy: If it holds above 3180, look for 3240; if it breaks below 3050, target 3000, and if it breaks 3000, then look down to 2950.

• Risk Control First: Use light positions, strictly control position sizes, and wait for a clear breakout before increasing positions.

On December 8, 2025, Bitcoin showed a strong rebound but faced pressure from above, exhibiting a volatile trend.

1. Price performance of the day: Bitcoin's price fluctuated wildly on that day, reaching as high as $91,300 during the early morning hours. Before this report, the daily candlestick chart showed a maximum of $91,700 and a minimum of $87,700, with an increase of nearly 4,000 points at one point, breaking through the $90,000 mark. However, after encountering resistance at $91,300, there was a slight pullback, and the overall movement oscillated around the $90,000 mark.

2. Technical trend: On the daily chart, the price rebounded and broke through the daily midline and EMA15 trendline at $90,800, remaining above the five-day moving average. However, the EMA trend indicator still maintains a bearish stance, with the EMA30 resistance at $93,600. The four-hour chart broke above the EMA120 trendline at $91,500, showing signs of volume increase on the MACD, and breaking through the middle of the Bollinger Bands at $90,400. The overall short-term trend is bullish.

3. Key levels: In terms of support, $87,700 is a short-term support formed by the daily low, with stronger support concentrated in the $80,000 - $85,000 area. On the resistance side, the short-term range of $91,300 - $91,700 has strong selling pressure, with further resistance levels at $92,600 and $93,600. The Fibonacci retracement resistance point at $94,200 and the upper Bollinger Band at $94,500 are also important pressure levels.

4. Short-term trading reference: Bulls can attempt to enter positions in the $90,000 - $90,500 range, with a stop-loss at $89,500 and a target looking towards $91,000 - $93,000. Bears can position themselves in the $93,000 - $93,500 range, with a stop-loss at $94,000 and a target looking down towards $91,000 - $92,500. Trading should include stop-loss measures.
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On the evening of December 7, 2025, Ethereum and Bitcoin exhibited a closely linked narrow fluctuation pattern, with movements influenced by the macro environment, supply and demand, and multiple technical factors. The detailed market analysis is as follows:

1. Instant price and market status: Ethereum's price fluctuated around $3050 in the evening, having tested the $3040 - $3050 range multiple times in the previous 2 hours, forming support. The overall market today is in a technical recovery phase, with no significant signs of new capital entering the market, and the balances on centralized trading platforms are at extremely low levels since 2015, resulting in extremely limited supply, with potential buying power accumulating energy for future price increases.

2. Technical performance: The daily line failed to break through the previous high of $3069, and the candlestick pattern formed a 'Evening Star', suggesting a potential bearish reversal; the 2-hour MACD shows a golden cross signal, but the overall trend remains weak. Key resistance is at $3200, with short-term key support concentrated in the $3100 - $3150 range; if it breaks below, stronger support is found in the $2480 - $2620 area.

3. Influencing factors: The core influencing factor remains the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 9 - 10, whose policy wording and guidance on the interest rate cut path will determine the market direction. Additionally, the recent 'Fusaka' network upgrade completed by Ethereum, while beneficial for the long-term ecosystem, has not provided a noticeable boost to the market in the short term.

There are corresponding short-term trading references for the evening, such as lightly shorting in the $3065 - $3115 range and trying long positions in the $2931 - $2981 range; one could also consider shorting at the $3070 point and going long at the $3025 point, with a suggested stop loss of 30 points for all operations. For more information, please follow xu980910.

On the evening of December 7, 2025, Bitcoin showed a slight fluctuation, with both bulls and bears in a clear standoff. The market is under pressure from the $90,000 barrier, and influenced by macro factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, the subsequent direction remains to be clarified. The specific analysis is as follows:

1. Instant price and market sentiment: The evening Bitcoin price fluctuated around $89,750, with weak rebounds during the day. It tested the $90,000 line multiple times without breaking through, and bullish sentiment gradually weakened. In the morning, Bitcoin had dropped below $89,000, while on the 6th, it touched $90,000. In the last 24 hours, its trading volume halved, with over 100,000 people being liquidated, and the total liquidation amount reached $114 million. Overall, investor sentiment is cautious.

2. Technical performance: The MACD is in the negative zone and continues to decline. Although there are potential signs of turning positive, the downward pressure remains in the short term; the 7-day moving average is below the 30-day moving average and diverging downwards, indicating a weak short-term trend. Key support is in the $88,000 - $90,000 range, with $89,000 being the dividing line for short-term strength; resistance is focused on the $90,000 level, with further resistance at $93,000 - $95,000. If the $88,000 support is lost, it may test $86,000 or even lower.

3. Influencing factors: The core influencing factor is the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 9-10, and its interest rate cut-related wording and future path guidance will become a direct catalyst for Bitcoin's market direction. Currently, the market rebound is largely seen as technical repair, and there are no obvious signs of new capital entering the market.

In addition, some analyses suggest short-term trading ideas for the evening, such as focusing on short positions during rebounds. For example, trying short positions in the $90,300 - $91,300 range, and long positions in the $87,300 - $88,300 range, while also setting stop-loss orders. To learn more ➕ DingDing xu980910