波段王天佑
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December 10 BTC Trend Analysis
Previously, long positions have realized profits; a short position at 94000 should have a break-even stop-loss. It is not recommended to go long during the early hours; be cautious of positive news leading to a sell-off. One can patiently set up medium to long-term short positions, as the Federal Reserve meeting begins at 3 AM.
During the day, pay attention to the support range of 91500-90800; if it does not break down, the bullish pattern still exists. A rise to 94500-96000 can allow for light short positions, and at the monthly limit pressure of 100000, one can add to short positions.
#币圈 #区块链 #比特币
Previously, long positions have realized profits; a short position at 94000 should have a break-even stop-loss. It is not recommended to go long during the early hours; be cautious of positive news leading to a sell-off. One can patiently set up medium to long-term short positions, as the Federal Reserve meeting begins at 3 AM.
During the day, pay attention to the support range of 91500-90800; if it does not break down, the bullish pattern still exists. A rise to 94500-96000 can allow for light short positions, and at the monthly limit pressure of 100000, one can add to short positions.
#币圈 #区块链 #比特币
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People cannot earn money beyond their own understanding. Tianyou takes the analysis of the market seriously, with over 80% accuracy in direction.
In fact, watching the market is not difficult; it's just about long and short positions. However, the entry point is very important, whether it's for short-term or swing intraday trades. What matters is what position you take and how long you hold from where you start!
#币圈 #区块链 #比特币
In fact, watching the market is not difficult; it's just about long and short positions. However, the entry point is very important, whether it's for short-term or swing intraday trades. What matters is what position you take and how long you hold from where you start!
#币圈 #区块链 #比特币
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特朗普拟提前数月宣布鲍威尔继任者，五强名单锁定美联储新掌门
美国总统特朗普周一表示，他可能在年底前宣布接替美联储主席鲍威尔的提名人选。鲍威尔的任期将于明年五月结束，目前候选人范围已锁定五位最终人选。
财政部长贝森特计划于下月对当前名单人选进行第二轮面谈，随后向总统提交一份更精简的提名名单供其考量。
贝森特周一透露，五位最终人选包括两位由特朗普最初提名进入美联储理事会的现任理事：克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）和兼任银行监管副主席的米歇尔·鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）。贝森特与特朗普的上述表态均是在“空军一号”上向随行记者作出。
目前有两位候选人被广泛视为领跑者：白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett），以及前美联储理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）。名单中第五位人选是贝莱德集团资深高管里克·里德（Rick Rieder），他负责监督该公司规模庞大的债券业务。
特朗普此前已表示未考虑贝森特出任该职务，周一他再次重申这一观点。不过，多位与贝森特交流过的人士透露，若特朗普对其他候选人不满意，贝森特仍可能成为该职位的潜在竞争者。
除贝森特外，沃什与哈塞特与特朗普关系最为密切。许多美联储观察家认为，这将成为特朗普剩余任期内最具影响力的人事决定的关键因素。
特朗普此前曾表示考虑过哈塞特、沃勒和沃什出任该职务。据知情人士透露，里德在今年夏季与贝森特就该职位的初次交流中令其印象深刻。
《华尔街日报》此前报道，今年夏季因对鲍威尔拒绝降息感到不满，特朗普曾考虑提前在九或十月宣布继任者人选。
但八月情况出现转机——前总统拜登任命的阿德里安娜·库格勒（Adriana Kugler）提前约六个月辞去理事职务，使白宫意外获得空缺职位。参议院已于九月确认通过特朗普的经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）出任该职。
与此同时，贝森特启动了一项延缓新任主席提名进程的策略，对媒体公布的11位候选人进行面谈。
这场非常公开的遴选程序促使多位候选人加入货币政策辩论，贝森特借此放大了支持美联储加大降息力度的论调。
美联储在九月降息25个基点，但米兰持异议主张更大幅度降息50个基点。市场普遍预期美联储在周三结束的为期两天会议中将再次降息25个基点。
按照惯例，白宫通常在现任美联储主席任期届满前三四个月宣布新主席人选。提前宣布可使候任主席引导市场对利率路径的预期。
但异常提早的提名存在弊端：鲍威尔的继任者可能陷入两难境地——公开质疑未来同事的决策，或为美联储现行政策辩护而惹怒特朗普。利率决策虽由主席主导，但需经12人组成的联邦公开市场委员会共同议定，该委员会包括七名总统任命的理事和五位轮值的地区联储主席。
特朗普提名的美联储主席很可能接替米兰现任的美联储理事席位。米兰的任期将于一月结束，但在继任者获参议院确认前他可留任。这将使未来的美联储主席得以参与明年三、四月的利率决策会议，为其五月中旬正式开始的主席任期提前铺路。
财政部长贝森特计划于下月对当前名单人选进行第二轮面谈，随后向总统提交一份更精简的提名名单供其考量。
贝森特周一透露，五位最终人选包括两位由特朗普最初提名进入美联储理事会的现任理事：克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）和兼任银行监管副主席的米歇尔·鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）。贝森特与特朗普的上述表态均是在“空军一号”上向随行记者作出。
目前有两位候选人被广泛视为领跑者：白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett），以及前美联储理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）。名单中第五位人选是贝莱德集团资深高管里克·里德（Rick Rieder），他负责监督该公司规模庞大的债券业务。
特朗普此前已表示未考虑贝森特出任该职务，周一他再次重申这一观点。不过，多位与贝森特交流过的人士透露，若特朗普对其他候选人不满意，贝森特仍可能成为该职位的潜在竞争者。
除贝森特外，沃什与哈塞特与特朗普关系最为密切。许多美联储观察家认为，这将成为特朗普剩余任期内最具影响力的人事决定的关键因素。
特朗普此前曾表示考虑过哈塞特、沃勒和沃什出任该职务。据知情人士透露，里德在今年夏季与贝森特就该职位的初次交流中令其印象深刻。
《华尔街日报》此前报道，今年夏季因对鲍威尔拒绝降息感到不满，特朗普曾考虑提前在九或十月宣布继任者人选。
但八月情况出现转机——前总统拜登任命的阿德里安娜·库格勒（Adriana Kugler）提前约六个月辞去理事职务，使白宫意外获得空缺职位。参议院已于九月确认通过特朗普的经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）出任该职。
与此同时，贝森特启动了一项延缓新任主席提名进程的策略，对媒体公布的11位候选人进行面谈。
这场非常公开的遴选程序促使多位候选人加入货币政策辩论，贝森特借此放大了支持美联储加大降息力度的论调。
美联储在九月降息25个基点，但米兰持异议主张更大幅度降息50个基点。市场普遍预期美联储在周三结束的为期两天会议中将再次降息25个基点。
按照惯例，白宫通常在现任美联储主席任期届满前三四个月宣布新主席人选。提前宣布可使候任主席引导市场对利率路径的预期。
但异常提早的提名存在弊端：鲍威尔的继任者可能陷入两难境地——公开质疑未来同事的决策，或为美联储现行政策辩护而惹怒特朗普。利率决策虽由主席主导，但需经12人组成的联邦公开市场委员会共同议定，该委员会包括七名总统任命的理事和五位轮值的地区联储主席。
特朗普提名的美联储主席很可能接替米兰现任的美联储理事席位。米兰的任期将于一月结束，但在继任者获参议院确认前他可留任。这将使未来的美联储主席得以参与明年三、四月的利率决策会议，为其五月中旬正式开始的主席任期提前铺路。
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相遇即是缘分，相知即是福分，用心才能走的更远。
合约不是比谁走的更快，而是比谁走的更远
合约不是比谁走的更快，而是比谁走的更远
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10.27晚间分析
大饼可围绕112500，113000多
看116400-117200
二饼可围绕3985，4000多
看4250-4310
回顾午后，大饼冲高至116350一线后随即回洛。
从小时级别boll来看，三线维持向↑发散态势，明确指示当前短期趋势仍处于多头结构中；点位自日内高点逐步脱离上轨，向中轨靠拢，属于多头趋势下的正常回踩动作。
大饼可围绕112500，113000多
看116400-117200
二饼可围绕3985，4000多
看4250-4310
回顾午后，大饼冲高至116350一线后随即回洛。
从小时级别boll来看，三线维持向↑发散态势，明确指示当前短期趋势仍处于多头结构中；点位自日内高点逐步脱离上轨，向中轨靠拢，属于多头趋势下的正常回踩动作。
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The two major gold bull markets in history ended very tragically...
The day before yesterday, international gold prices surged strongly, gaining momentum like a rolling snowball. In just two months, it consecutively broke through several important integer thresholds. London spot gold reached a high of $4380/ounce, while New York futures gold peaked at $4392/ounce.
However, as international gold prices reached historical highs, the risk of technical overbought conditions accumulated, and market volatility significantly intensified, with rapid pullbacks occurring multiple times during the session. On October 17, international gold prices fell across the board, with London spot gold dropping $75.03 in a single day, a decrease of 1.73%; New York futures gold decreased by $36.7, a drop of 0.85%.
There is no asset in the world that only rises without falling, and gold is no exception. Historically, gold has experienced two major bull markets at the 10-year level, occurring in the 1970s and in the 2000s.
However, as international gold prices reached historical highs, the risk of technical overbought conditions accumulated, and market volatility significantly intensified, with rapid pullbacks occurring multiple times during the session. On October 17, international gold prices fell across the board, with London spot gold dropping $75.03 in a single day, a decrease of 1.73%; New York futures gold decreased by $36.7, a drop of 0.85%.
There is no asset in the world that only rises without falling, and gold is no exception. Historically, gold has experienced two major bull markets at the 10-year level, occurring in the 1970s and in the 2000s.
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Trump will successively visit Japan and South Korea, with the Japanese and South Korean stock markets opening sharply higher
China Fund Reporter Li Zhi
On October 27, the Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened sharply higher, with the Nikkei 225 index first breaking 50,000 points, rising over 2%.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange index hit a new all-time high, with the latest increase of 1.55%.
Blue-chip stocks rallied, with SoftBank Group, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, and Hitachi all rising over 2%.
In terms of news, U.S. President Trump is expected to visit Japan for three days starting October 27, after visiting Malaysia. Trump's first meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to take place on the 28th. Currently, security around the U.S. embassy in Japan has been strengthened.
According to Reference News, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held his first telephone conversation with U.S. President Trump since taking office on the 25th, and both sides agreed to further elevate the Japan-U.S. alliance to a higher level. After the phone call, Kishida revealed this to reporters at the hotel where he was staying. The call lasted about 10 minutes.
In addition, the South Korean KOSPI index rose over 2% at one point, breaking the 4,000-point mark for the first time and setting a new historical record.
In terms of news, Trump previously stated that an agreement with South Korea is quite close to being reached.
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung recently stated that the Korea-U.S. trade negotiations are still stalled due to the U.S. demand for $350 billion in investment. South Korea's defense spending accounts for 3.5% of GDP, reflecting strategic autonomy and national independence, and not just an alliance with the U.S. Trade negotiations with the U.S. will take time, but he believes a reasonable agreement will ultimately be reached, expressing confidence in achieving a reasonable outcome in this negotiation.
China Fund Reporter Li Zhi
On October 27, the Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened sharply higher, with the Nikkei 225 index first breaking 50,000 points, rising over 2%.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange index hit a new all-time high, with the latest increase of 1.55%.
Blue-chip stocks rallied, with SoftBank Group, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, and Hitachi all rising over 2%.
In terms of news, U.S. President Trump is expected to visit Japan for three days starting October 27, after visiting Malaysia. Trump's first meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to take place on the 28th. Currently, security around the U.S. embassy in Japan has been strengthened.
According to Reference News, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held his first telephone conversation with U.S. President Trump since taking office on the 25th, and both sides agreed to further elevate the Japan-U.S. alliance to a higher level. After the phone call, Kishida revealed this to reporters at the hotel where he was staying. The call lasted about 10 minutes.
In addition, the South Korean KOSPI index rose over 2% at one point, breaking the 4,000-point mark for the first time and setting a new historical record.
In terms of news, Trump previously stated that an agreement with South Korea is quite close to being reached.
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung recently stated that the Korea-U.S. trade negotiations are still stalled due to the U.S. demand for $350 billion in investment. South Korea's defense spending accounts for 3.5% of GDP, reflecting strategic autonomy and national independence, and not just an alliance with the U.S. Trade negotiations with the U.S. will take time, but he believes a reasonable agreement will ultimately be reached, expressing confidence in achieving a reasonable outcome in this negotiation.
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Long-term Luodai 25,000 U close to 5,000 points, opening a position not only requires mastering precise points but also requires courage, bravery, and composure! This is professionalism!
A single trade with an 879% return rate, the strength of the wave king!
A single trade with an 879% return rate, the strength of the wave king!
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老美认怂了？突然宣布：不再加征100%关税！
兄弟们，大消息！
就在刚刚，美国财长贝森特亲口放话，
“不再考虑对华加征100%关税！”
不是模糊表态，是直接砍掉！
不是“暂缓”，是“不再考虑”！
这四个字，分量有多重？
等于说——
美国想用“关税核弹”炸中国经济的路，被自己亲手封死了！
这两天到底发生了什么？
中美经贸团队在吉隆坡密谈48小时，
中方牵头人：国务院副总理 何总
美方牵头人：财长 贝森特 + 贸易代表 格里尔
这是今年第五次面对面谈判，
但这次，气氛变了！
结果爆出：
双方达成“非常实质性的框架协议”！
翻译一下：
不是打太极，是真谈出东西了！
老美突然认怂，是怕了吗？
别天真！这不是怕，是打不动了！
美国现在自己一身病：
- 通胀压不住，物价还在涨
- 国债突破36万亿，利息都还不起
- 农产品滞销，农民天天抗议
- 企业叫苦连天：中国零件买不到，生产线要停！
再加征100%关税？
等于给美国自己头上砸锤子！
最后买单的，是美国家庭的钱包！
真实目的换汤，不换药！
美国不是放弃打压，而是——
从“无差别轰炸”，转向“精准卡脖子”！
关税核弹不打了，
但芯片、AI、半导体、新能源的封锁，
一个都不会少！
这次谈的是“关税与贸易流程”，
但高科技出口管制、投资审查这些，
根本没松口！
说明什么？
美国要留力气，专攻关键赛道！
对我们意味着什么？
1. 出口企业喘口气——纺织、家电、日用、物流，压力暂时缓解
2. 跨境电商利好——不再担心突然加税，备货更稳
3. A股外贸板块可能异动——资金会提前埋伏
但这不是和平，是中场休息！
下一局，战场在科技，不在关税！
最后说句大实话，
美国喊“不加税”，
是因为他们发现——
中国经济没被打垮，反而越打越强！
全球供应链，离了中国，转不动！
这一局，
没分出胜负，看谁更扛得住！
就在刚刚，美国财长贝森特亲口放话，
“不再考虑对华加征100%关税！”
不是模糊表态，是直接砍掉！
不是“暂缓”，是“不再考虑”！
这四个字，分量有多重？
等于说——
美国想用“关税核弹”炸中国经济的路，被自己亲手封死了！
这两天到底发生了什么？
中美经贸团队在吉隆坡密谈48小时，
中方牵头人：国务院副总理 何总
美方牵头人：财长 贝森特 + 贸易代表 格里尔
这是今年第五次面对面谈判，
但这次，气氛变了！
结果爆出：
双方达成“非常实质性的框架协议”！
翻译一下：
不是打太极，是真谈出东西了！
老美突然认怂，是怕了吗？
别天真！这不是怕，是打不动了！
美国现在自己一身病：
- 通胀压不住，物价还在涨
- 国债突破36万亿，利息都还不起
- 农产品滞销，农民天天抗议
- 企业叫苦连天：中国零件买不到，生产线要停！
再加征100%关税？
等于给美国自己头上砸锤子！
最后买单的，是美国家庭的钱包！
真实目的换汤，不换药！
美国不是放弃打压，而是——
从“无差别轰炸”，转向“精准卡脖子”！
关税核弹不打了，
但芯片、AI、半导体、新能源的封锁，
一个都不会少！
这次谈的是“关税与贸易流程”，
但高科技出口管制、投资审查这些，
根本没松口！
说明什么？
美国要留力气，专攻关键赛道！
对我们意味着什么？
1. 出口企业喘口气——纺织、家电、日用、物流，压力暂时缓解
2. 跨境电商利好——不再担心突然加税，备货更稳
3. A股外贸板块可能异动——资金会提前埋伏
但这不是和平，是中场休息！
下一局，战场在科技，不在关税！
最后说句大实话，
美国喊“不加税”，
是因为他们发现——
中国经济没被打垮，反而越打越强！
全球供应链，离了中国，转不动！
这一局，
没分出胜负，看谁更扛得住！
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