壹筒

$BTC Bitcoin is holding strong at 78000, with a solid sideways action; the bearish trap can't hide the bullish ambition.

On the 1H timeframe, we’re in the middle of an ascending channel, with multiple bounces off support confirming its strength.
On-chain data shows that whales are strongly committed to holding, and exchange inventories are at a low, indicating concentrated positions.
Technically, the MACD has crossed above the zero line, and price action is in sync, which is a classic bullish flag consolidation.
Currently, bearish momentum is nearly depleted, and funding rates have returned to a healthy range, indicating a potential violent pump at any moment.

Entry zone 77900-78150, short-term target 80800, stop loss at 77350.

Intraday volatility is intense, avoid mindless high leverage; be cautious of institutions maliciously spiking to liquidate liquidity – protect your capital.

$ETH The market is feeling the pressure as bearish clouds loom, with technical breakdowns triggering a chain reaction of liquidations; Ethereum is facing its darkest hour.

A hefty $50 million unlock from the foundation is directly impacting market depth; the candlestick chart is completely under the influence of the MA20 moving average, with a strong downtrend forming significant resistance; ecosystem transaction fee burns have nearly stalled, and the deflation narrative can no longer cover the inflationary pressures; the exchange rate is testing critical support levels, with major funds clearly shifting positions.


It's advisable to scale into short positions between 2280 and 2350, targeting a first goal at 1900, with a swing target of 1750, and keeping a tight stop-loss above 2510.

In extreme market conditions, it's crucial to maintain flexible positions and be wary of potential short squeezes that could trigger sudden 'spike' liquidations.

$ZBT Privacy Protocol Dark Horse Breakthrough, $5 Million Funding with Binance Payment Boost, Long and Short Battle Heating Up!

Long Logic:
1. ZK privacy sector capital rotation, ZBT as the sector leader opens up room for catch-up.
2. 'Super Strategy' forced burn mechanism launched, circulating supply continues to decrease.
3. Binance payment integration expands payment scenarios, strong fundamental support.
Entry Point: 0.218, Target 0.3, Stop Loss 0.195.

Short Logic:
1. RSI skyrocketing to 76, severely overbought, urgent need for a technical pullback.
2. Trading volume surged by 400%, after rapid rise, easy to see long liquidation.
3. Key resistance at 0.24 facing early profit-taking pressure.
Entry Point: Short near 0.242, Target 0.17, Stop Loss 0.26.

Recommendation: DCA on pullbacks at 0.218 to build long positions, take profit at 0.3, stop loss at 0.195.
Note: Trading volume is extremely unusual, beware of extreme spikes, strictly control leverage.

When Pixels hit its peak daily active users (DAU) in May 2024, there was another number that I found even more intriguing than the DAU itself: over 200,000 paying VIP members, with each player shelling out $10, equating to $PIXEL in value, resulting in a monthly in-game spend of around $2.4 million. The first time I saw this set of numbers, I couldn't help but marvel at how a Web3 game could generate SaaS-style monthly subscription revenue without a traditional payment system; this alone is one of the rare cases in the market. #pixel

The logic behind the VIP design is pretty straightforward: the $10 monthly fee unlocks more game progression acceleration and platform features. Paying buys efficiency, not a paywall, which isn’t fundamentally different from the monthly card model of traditional mobile games, but it's paid in $PIXEL , meaning every VIP subscription consumes circulating tokens. According to @Pixels 's own data, over the past 12 months, 4.55 billion $PIXEL has been spent on item vouchers, in-game currency, and discount coupons, with VIP subscriptions contributing a significant portion, and this is a continuous consumption, not a one-time event.

I believe this model is worth breaking down because it addresses one of the toughest issues in blockchain game revenue: stability. Most blockchain game incomes are event-driven; a single NFT minting or a new version release sees income spike for a few days and then quickly plummet to the floor. Pixels' VIP subscription model offers a smoother baseline revenue stream, with 250 to 750 VIP purchases daily, not relying on single event triggers. The quality of this revenue in financial terms is on a completely different scale compared to one-time NFT sales. $BTC

Of course, the 200,000 paying members is a figure from the peak period. As DAU has dropped from 1 million, VIP subscriptions have also adjusted downwards, which is a natural correlation. When I do this kind of analysis, I separate peak numbers and trend directions; peaks tell you the upper limit of what the model can achieve, while trends tell you where things currently stand. Both aspects are essential to consider; focusing on just one can lead to misjudgment. Currently, Pixels shows a positive trend in paying user growth, with a 75% increase in paid wallets in 2024, but whether the total VIP members can return to or even exceed previous peaks depends on whether Chapter 3 and Chubkins can bring in genuinely new users, not just a return of existing ones. $BNB

In November 2023, Pixels completed its chain migration from Polygon to the Ronin Network, but it didn't generate much buzz at the time. My impression of the project was pretty shallow back then; I just categorized it as "another pixel art farming game" and didn't really feel motivated to track it actively. However, after the migration, the data made me dig up its profile again: daily active users jumped from around 4,000 to 180,000 in just a few months, a surge of over 40x. @Pixels

Such a massive change can't solely be attributed to an improvement in the game. The ultra-low on-chain friction costs of Ronin, the existing user base brought by Sky Mavis, along with the entire Web3 gaming market starting to rebound at the end of 2023, all these factors created a powerful push. When you hit the right direction, it can lead to a one-time windfall, but whether you can convert that traffic into retention and revenue is the core question to judge if a project has real support. $KAT

By May 2024, Pixels hit 1 million daily active users, becoming the largest Web3 game in terms of daily on-chain activity at that time, with over 200,000 VIP monthly paid members and an average monthly spend of about $2.4 million in-game. The total revenue for the entire year of 2024 was $20 million, ranking first among all Web3 games. When I analyze these kinds of projects, I have a habit of separating user numbers from financial figures; both sets need to move in the same direction to indicate that the monetization logic of the platform is real, and for most of 2024, Pixels showed that alignment. #pixel

Of course, 1 million daily active users is a peak and not an average, and that distinction is important. After Chapter 2 launched, the team intentionally slowed down the iteration pace, leading to a visible drop in daily active users, which put pressure on the token price as well. These fluctuations are part of the project's real history; a complete analysis needs to consider both the highs and lows, not just the half that supports one's narrative. $币安人生

The token distribution structure deserves a separate mention: 34% for ecosystem rewards, 17% for the treasury, 14% for private investors, 12.5% for the team, 9.5% for advisors, 7% for Binance Launchpool, 5% for Alpha player rewards, and 1% for liquidity. When I analyze token structures, the proportion and release pace of ecosystem rewards is the first set of numbers I look at because it directly affects the medium- to long-term pressure of token emissions on market prices, which applies to Pixels as well. $PIXEL

What data do you value most about Pixels?

A lot of folks don’t realize that @Pixels was almost under the radar before the move. By the end of 2023, Pixels shifted their entire project from Polygon to Ronin, which is the chain that Sky Mavis built specifically for gaming—Axie Infinity rode that wave from niche to explosive success. Before the migration, Pixels had fewer than 4,000 daily active users, but within six months of moving to Ronin, they skyrocketed to 1 million. As I studied this history, I kept thinking that this number shift indicates not just a more engaging game, but that the fate of a Web3 project can be completely rewritten by a single infrastructure decision. #pixel $PIXEL

Ronin solves very specific issues: near-zero gas fees, fast transaction confirmations, and Sky Mavis brings along the on-chain player community from the Axie era. I’ve seen some Web3 games die on the wrong chain due to exorbitant fees that scare off everyday users and slow transfers that disrupt game flow—these are tangible pain points for users on-chain, not something that can be smoothed over just by improving game quality. Pixels choosing Ronin wasn’t just a tech upgrade; it was more about a precise judgment on traffic gateways. $CHIP

However, this choice also means a high level of dependency. Ronin faced a $625 million chain bridge hack in 2022, one of the largest security incidents in Web3 history. They’ve made extensive repairs since, but the risks at the chain level are external variables that any project built on it can’t completely isolate from. By choosing Ronin, Pixels bet on the growth window, but they also staked part of their fate on someone else's infrastructure. I think anyone seriously looking into this project should do the math for themselves. $币安人生

🗳️ Do you think betting on Ronin was the right move?

Last month I came across a veteran's complaint post in the crypto circle, saying that after wearing a health bracelet for half a year, all the data was wasted, and in the end, he simply uninstalled it. At that moment, I suddenly thought of LongTech's AI Mining Watch, feeling that it aims to subtly integrate fragmented behaviors like walking for fitness, watching short dramas, and shopping online into blockchain value. The original text on the official website states, "Innovative hardware that transforms user behavior into value." Currently, AI Mining Watch is still in the Developing stage, with global sales planned for Q3. Personally, I think this gameplay has a low entry barrier, like participating just by wearing a watch daily, but the actual experience will have to wait for the official launch to verify.

ShortCon Daily Content 5000+, 2000+ Creators, 100+ global KOLs. If this traffic can be connected with Mall consumption, the closed loop will be more complete. NFT node Standard Access Node can start earning a daily reward of 0.3% LTT from 10 USDT. I feel it is trying to bring newcomers in. The testnet is already online, with Q1 planned as In Progress. Overall, I see the pace is quite pragmatic.

Looking back at that complaint post, I suddenly feel that if LongTech can really make the hardware a tool that users are willing to wear every day, perhaps that veteran from back then won't uninstall it anymore. @LongTech官方

I already collected the farming tools of Terra Villa. For the past few days, I have been standing all night observing the newly updated Tier 5 industrial area. I'm still calculating how many carrots the players can harvest back, actually deviating from the new direction of the Pixels project. On the surface, everyone is still calculating stamina, but this pixel world is gradually evolving into a decentralized publishing model constructed by the official through staking.

The official white paper starts with the exact words: Pixels is an open-ended world of farming and exploration, built one pixel at a time. In the early days, it did allow you to farm and explore. However, with the recent change to "Tier 5 and other significant updates, the official has clearly positioned Pixels as a decentralized publishing platform.

Yesterday, I threw my idle tokens into the new staking pool. After experiencing it, I understood that land NFTs have already become industrial capacity nodes in Tier 5, providing in-game staking power 10% boost. Retail investors mine at the bottom, while large holders hoard land to obtain long-term platform dividends. The use of PIXEL has shifted from gold for buying seeds to chips that bind the entire ecosystem. $CHIP $PIEVERSE

Guiding players accustomed to mechanical labor into this publishing flywheel is an iterative adjustment of user habits. Veteran players often feel confused by the complex industrial-grade recipes in Tier 5, while retail investors just want to earn a little pocket money. However, the system's version iteration is forcing them to adapt to higher-level rules. Whether the project can successfully transform while retaining core players still needs continuous observation. @Pixels The official's $PIXEL staking dashboard supports staking PIXEL into multiple game pools to earn dynamic rewards. The current main pool's staking amount has exceeded 120 million, objectively tracking the real turnover rate of land NFTs and the scale of funds in the staking pool, the direction of funds will naturally provide objective answers. #pixel

LongTech's official latest report states that the total number of ShortCon users has exceeded 500,000, with current active users at 50,000+ and DAU at 100,000+ (official site latest). Today, we will discuss LongTech's fundamentals and retention data.

The industry is not lacking in various flashy promotions, but the key is how many active users can be retained. There is a statement in the official announcement: “based on global compliance, using AI computing power hardware as the carrier.”

I have personally tested the staking and mall cashback; the earnings can currently be received, but this does not conceal the challenges of the physical industry. The AI smart watch is planned for release in Q3 2026, and challenges such as supply chain and yield rate objectively exist. TronBank cooperation (announced on April 18) provides channels with existing partners, but the sustainability of future earnings still needs to be observed.

What concerns me most is whether those users who come in to watch short dramas will still open the app daily when the token output decreases. After the hardware is launched, device activity will become a key verification indicator. I will continue to track the real active addresses on the chain to judge the long-term direction of this project. @LongTech官方

Ethereum is currently under pressure, with the market fiercely battling around the $2300 level, intertwined with macro headwinds and ETF expectations.

Bullish core logic: $ETH has formed a key demand zone in the $2250-$2280 range, coupled with positive expectations of continuous inflows into ETH ETFs. If it can stabilize and break through the recent resistance of $2350, the upper space is expected to open up to $2450, and even challenge the psychological level of $2500. Smart contract activity and network upgrade narratives remain long-term value supports.

Bearish views argue that geopolitical tensions suppress risk assets and that ETH has failed to effectively hold the $2350-$2370 resistance area, increasing the risk of a pullback. If the $2250 support is broken, it may quickly drop to the $2150-$2200 range, and a retest of the critical support at $2000 cannot be ruled out.

Operational advice: Given the current consolidation, aggressive traders can take light positions in long trades in the $2250-$2280 range, with a stop loss set below $2230, targeting $2350 and $2450. Bears can wait to intervene when a rebound to the $2350-$2370 area fails to break through, with a stop loss set above $2400, targeting $2250 and $2150.

Risk warning: Market sentiment is neutral to greedy, but volatility remains. Do not blindly chase prices up or down; be wary of sudden macro events that could cause sharp market fluctuations, strictly control positions, and adhere to trading discipline.

$EDU bottomed out and is surging; Nasdaq funds are entering, with the education sector experiencing an epic recovery.

This explosive rise is driven by ANPA's ongoing $50 million buyback plan and the rollout of India's digital governance. Technically, we are seeing a vengeful rebound after hitting extreme RSI oversold levels, with spot premiums significantly visible and clear capital inflow.


Bulls are focusing on the key support at $0.061; if it holds, we could easily push towards the strong resistance at $0.068. A breakthrough would open up space to $0.075. Set a hard stop-loss at $0.058.

Bears should watch the selling pressure in the $0.065-$0.068 range; if volume spikes and we see stagnation, the bear target is directly aimed at the $0.052 support level.

In terms of strategy, look to accumulate spot positions gradually on a dip to $0.06; for contracts, monitor for short opportunities around $0.067 while maintaining strict position sizing.

Friendly reminder: EDU is a low liquidity asset, so be cautious of the risks associated with institutional buy order gaps.

In the morning, I drank porridge at a dim sum shop, and the lady at the next table was complaining to her friend about the fast pace of work recently. Every day commuting and working overtime, yet she feels there’s no accumulation in life. Outside, the sound of electric bike bells rings, and everyone’s days go by like this, yet it always feels like something measurable is missing.

I extracted this pattern of living day by day lacking measurable accumulation, which connects nicely to the LongTech roadmap advancement dimension. Currently, the official website lists the technical infrastructure for Q1 2026 as In Progress, with the PWA system and LTT DEX listing both in progress, while the official launch of Q2 ShortCon is approaching. I noticed that the X official just released the watch-to-earn activity for the H5 short drama, and the pace seems unaffected. When I paid attention to the project last year, I felt the roadmap was quite long. Now that Q1 isn’t over yet, DAO and Staking are also being worked on simultaneously. I observed that it hasn’t frequently changed plans like some other projects, which I appreciate.

The official specifically mentioned the global launch of Smart Watch V1 at $499 in Q3 2026, and Smart Vape V1 at $58 in Q4, targeting 1 million users. Personally, I feel this step-by-step advancement is slow but solid. However, the actual user growth from the current 50k+ to 1 million in Q4 presents significant conversion pressure. Last time I was on a business trip to Guangzhou, I tracked similar routes, and the results often showed that retention became an issue after early modules went live. Just like that bowl of hot dim sum porridge, you have to drink it slowly to see if the subsequent flavor will fade. @LongTech官方