Nesnes1

Tonight at 2 AM, regarding whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, there is a flurry of news that makes people feel confused. At this time point, it is impossible to judge whether to be bullish or bearish.
According to current news, at 2 AM on October 30, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut interest rates.
The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4%. This rate cut expectation is mainly based on the following factors: first, the U.S. job market continues to be weak, affected by the government shutdown, the September non-farm payroll data was not released as scheduled, but ADP data shows that the U.S. private sector lost 32,000 jobs in September, marking the largest decline since March 2023, far below market expectations, and the weakness in the labor market requires the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to "support" it.
Second, the U.S. core CPI rose 3% year-on-year in September, creating a new three-month low, and inflationary pressures are relatively mild, which does not constitute a reason to hinder the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates. In addition, the interest rate futures market has almost completely priced in the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this time, and the financial market has also adopted a relatively aggressive betting strategy, to which the Federal Reserve leadership has not explicitly opposed.

However, there are certain disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding the interest rate cut issue. Some officials, such as Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, may raise objections due to concerns about inflation, but this is not expected to change the overall situation of this rate cut. #美联储降息预期 #加密市场回调
{future}(BTCUSDT)

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