铭泽-财富圈

Pippin has meat to eat now

1. The first phase rebound of Bitcoin from 80600 since the beginning has ended at the upward spike of 93000 last night, 80600---93000, which has just recovered the decline that accelerated on November 20/21, equivalent to the market giving a chance for the bulls to exit after bottom-fishing. The market may possibly test the 85000--806000 range again.
2. The long-term upward trend over the past three years has ended, and the market has entered a bear market lasting over 1 year; currently, it is in the early stages of a bear market. The mark of the end of the three-year bull market's upward trend is when Bitcoin fell below 100000 in mid-November, directly breaking through the long-term upward trend line, with the long-term breakdown point at 97000. After the long-term upward trend was broken, Bitcoin fell all the way to the lowest point of 80600 last week.
3. If 80600 can hold for a while, it rebounded to 93000 last night and fell back, with a short-term trading range of 80600---93000;
4. Referring to February 24 of this year, after Bitcoin fell from 95000 to a low of 74500, it wasn't until two months later on April 25 that Bitcoin returned above 95000. Therefore, this time Bitcoin has fallen below 100000, the market may also have two months' time trading below 100000.
5. 80600 may be the bottom for 1 to 3 months, and can last up to 3-4 months, ultimately likely to break down at the end of Q1 to Q2 in 2026.
6. After the back-and-forth consolidation in the 80600---93000 range, the short-term market is highly likely to stand above 93000, challenging 97000---100000.
7. After Bitcoin fell from its highest point of 126200 down to 80600, the future general trend path is expected to be 126200---80600---93000 range, followed by a second test near above 80600 or in the 85000--80600 range, then rebounding back to 93000. After a few weeks of tug-of-war in the 80600---93000 range, it should stand above 93000, challenging 97000---100000---103000, with the highest likely not exceeding 107500. In terms of daily K-line cycle moving averages, it will be obstructed near the 120-day and 288-day moving averages.
8. Future potential shorting opportunities may arise when the daily K-line is simultaneously obstructed by the 120-day and 288-day moving averages.
9. In the short term, there may still be one or two opportunities to buy on dips below 85000---80600, aiming for around 93000. #加密市场反弹

Last week, BTC fell from above 92000 to 80600 in just over 24 hours. However, it has been four days since the rebound from 80600, and the price is still around 88000. This shows how much damage the decline since 126000 has done to the market.

The market has not experienced a rapid V-shaped reversal that quickly recovers the drop from 93000 to 80600, indicating that the current bullish sentiment in the market is weak and that market sentiment needs more time to recover.

Technically speaking, a rapid V-shaped reversal at the bottom is stronger than a W double bottom reversal, and stronger than a triple bottom or a certain bottom support tested multiple times. BTC has not shown a rapid V-shaped reversal, so in the short term, there is a possibility of a W double bottom situation. This means that BTC may have a second downward test of the 82000---80600 range in the near future.

Currently, the short-term technical outlook for BTC is also bearish. Although the 5-day moving average has flattened and turned, the 10 and 20-day moving averages continue to diverge downward. Given the current weak rebound of BTC, it will take a long time for the market to restore the direction and trend of the 5, 10, and 20 moving averages.

The rebound since 80600 has halted at the 10-day moving average in the daily K-line cycle, while the 20-day moving average is still far at 94400. According to the current downward extension of the 20-day moving average, in three days, it will drop to near 92000. This means that if BTC can rebound and touch the 20-day moving average in three days, the price will also stop around 92000. Therefore, the market should not have overly optimistic expectations for the first rebound since 80600. Until a W bottom appears in the short-term technical outlook, a rebound to near 92000 is already quite a luxury.

Resistance above: 89200; short-term pressure: 93000, 96600. Minor support below: 85200, 83500; short-term support level: 80600; medium to long-term support level: 74500. #加密市场反弹 #比特币波动性 #美国非农数据超预期

BTc: The short-term decline is still ongoing, and there are currently no signs of stabilization. The lower support levels are 88800, 86500, 83000, and 74500. First, pay attention to the support level in the range of 88800--86500. This support level/support range may be the first price or range where the market stabilizes. Regardless of whether BTC stabilizes at 88800, 86500, or 83000, the maximum rebound space is in the range of 98200---102000. Due to the destruction of the long-term upward trend, a normal rebound will not exceed the breaking point price (97500) when the long-term upward trend is broken. However, from the perspective of the upper pressure platform, the strong pressure range is located at 98200--102000. If the future stabilization rebound exceeds 97500, then the rebound resistance will also be hindered by the extension line of the long-term upward support level (i.e., the range of 98200---102000). In the short term, the range of 88800\86500\8300 is a cost-effective area for buying on dips, with targets of 97500---98200\100000.
#比特币走势分析

Bitcoin's pullback has approached the long-term upward support line near two years, and the market has entered the initial stage of a bear market. Once the long-term trend line is broken, the market will transition to the mid-stage of a bear market, where the decline is the greatest.

How much can Bitcoin's pullback in this bear market go down to? Let's look for patterns from a technical perspective. In the last bear market (2022), there was a strong consensus that the lowest point of the 2022 bear market adjustment should not break below the previous bull market's highest point (the highest point of the 2017 bull market at 19875). However, the 2022 Bitcoin bear market did break below the 2017 bull market's highest point of 19875, dropping to a low of 15450. So, in this new bear market, Bitcoin's adjustment could very likely drop below the previous bull market's (2020-2021) highest point of 69,000.

Looking at the last bear market (2022) for Bitcoin, the bottom was indeed below the key long-term support level of the previous major bull market at 28800, which completely released market selling pressure, bringing the market to a relative bottom of the bear market. Thus, in this round of Bitcoin bear market testing the bottom, it is very likely to drop below the key long-term support level of the 2023-2025 bull market at 74500, releasing the market's bearish capacity, and the market may enter a relative bottom of the bear market.

In this bear market, a 50% adjustment for Bitcoin means it will drop to 63100.

From a technical perspective, after breaking the long-term support level of 74500, the next long-term support for Bitcoin will be the lowest point in August 2024 at 49000.

According to the adjustment patterns of the market's bull and bear cycles mentioned above, it is highly likely that this round of bear market for Bitcoin will adjust to below 74500, breaking the previous bull market's highest point of 69,000, to some price above 49000 and below 69000, forming the absolute bottom of the bear market.

The above content is a simple recounting of seeking patterns from market history in a simplistic manner.
#美国政府停摆 #比特币预测

The overall short-term performance of Bitcoin is still weak, in a phase of weak consolidation after a significant drop, with resistance at 104500; the short-term strong pressure is between 106000 and 107200.

After Ethereum's historical high of 4956 in late August, the low points of each market adjustment at 4210, 3815, 3435, and 3057 are getting lower. Similarly, the high-pressure points of the market rebound after adjustments at 4956, 4755, 4254, and 3918 are also decreasing. It can be seen that Ethereum's daily candlestick chart has entered a medium-term and long-term downtrend. The intraday resistance is at 3480, with strong short-term pressure located in the range of 3650---3680, and support below at 3057. From the perspective of Ethereum's own volatility, the market has not been able to accumulate chips in the range of 3057--3680 in the short term, and for a considerable period of time (possibly 3 to 4 weeks), the market will trade within the 3057--3680 range, with a low probability of directly breaking below 3000 in the short term. The medium to long-term moving average of 120 has already been lost, becoming a medium to long-term pressure line, with the 120-day moving average at 4067. Even if there is a strong rebound in the medium to short term (within 2-4 weeks), the 120-day moving average has already become the limit.
#Ethereum

Technically, Bitcoin 116,000--116,400 remains a short-term resistance. After the Federal Reserve's decision in the evening, Bitcoin may experience fluctuations as long as it does not stay above 116,000. The range of 115,000--116,000 could be a relatively high-value short opportunity, with a maximum stop-loss at 116,400. If the market fails to hold above 110,000 in the short term, it may fluctuate down to the range of 105,000--102,000. #加密市场回调 #美联储降息预期 #比特币走势分析

Latest market information, the Federal Reserve has clarified the interest rate cut time for October 2025. On October 29 local time, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision, and the market widely expects a 25 basis point cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%.
The decision results will be officially announced at 2 AM Beijing time on October 30.

This rate cut is mainly based on signals of a weak labor market, including only 22,000 new non-farm jobs in August, an unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, and the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed persons falling to the critical level of 1.0. Although the core PCE inflation in September remains high at 2.9%, the Federal Reserve is more concerned about the downside risks to employment, defining this adjustment as "risk management-style rate cut."

It is noteworthy that there are policy differences within the Federal Reserve: among the 19 officials, just over half support two more rate cuts within the year, while 7 officials oppose further easing. Market pricing indicates that the probability of continuing a 25 basis point cut in December has reached 84%, reflecting expectations for the continuation of the easing cycle.
#内容挖矿升级 #加密市场回调 #美联储降息预期