Last week, BTC fell from above 92000 to 80600 in just over 24 hours. However, it has been four days since the rebound from 80600, and the price is still around 88000. This shows how much damage the decline since 126000 has done to the market.

The market has not experienced a rapid V-shaped reversal that quickly recovers the drop from 93000 to 80600, indicating that the current bullish sentiment in the market is weak and that market sentiment needs more time to recover.

Technically speaking, a rapid V-shaped reversal at the bottom is stronger than a W double bottom reversal, and stronger than a triple bottom or a certain bottom support tested multiple times. BTC has not shown a rapid V-shaped reversal, so in the short term, there is a possibility of a W double bottom situation. This means that BTC may have a second downward test of the 82000---80600 range in the near future.

Currently, the short-term technical outlook for BTC is also bearish. Although the 5-day moving average has flattened and turned, the 10 and 20-day moving averages continue to diverge downward. Given the current weak rebound of BTC, it will take a long time for the market to restore the direction and trend of the 5, 10, and 20 moving averages.

The rebound since 80600 has halted at the 10-day moving average in the daily K-line cycle, while the 20-day moving average is still far at 94400. According to the current downward extension of the 20-day moving average, in three days, it will drop to near 92000. This means that if BTC can rebound and touch the 20-day moving average in three days, the price will also stop around 92000. Therefore, the market should not have overly optimistic expectations for the first rebound since 80600. Until a W bottom appears in the short-term technical outlook, a rebound to near 92000 is already quite a luxury.

Resistance above: 89200; short-term pressure: 93000, 96600. Minor support below: 85200, 83500; short-term support level: 80600; medium to long-term support level: 74500. #加密市场反弹 #比特币波动性 #美国非农数据超预期