活puppy

日元那边在收紧，美联储这边在放松，BTC：我是谁我在哪？🌀

现在宏观真的有点像“左右互扇”：
日本这边央行被通胀和汇率逼得，市场普遍觉得要加到 0.75%，还可能继续往上走；
美国这边美联储已经连续第三次小幅降息，还在放风 2026 年未必会继续#ETH走势分析 大幅往下，各种观点满天飞。

BTC 则正好夹在中间：

日元加息 → 日元套利盘不那么舒服，要考虑减仓各种风险资产；#加密市场反弹

美联储降息 → 等于给整体风险资产打了一点“麻药”，不至于立刻休克；

ETF 这边：11 月大出血，12 月开始略微回血，但距离“激情岁月”还早。

所以现在这段走势，看起来特别纠结：
多头觉得位置不低，但相信长线逻辑；
空头觉得还有空间，但也不太敢重仓梭哈。

对我这种普通散户来说，反而有点清醒：
宏观在吵架的时候，最容易发生的不是“直接崩盘”，而是来回来去把你心态磨没。

一句老话送给同病相怜的你我：
别把宏观当剧本照抄，更别把杠杆当情绪出口。
仅为记录市场一角，不构成投资建议$BTC
$XRP

Compared to high returns, I care more about whether stablecoins are 'stable'

In the past few years of increasing market volatility, I have slowly realized one thing:
For many ordinary users, the most important function of stablecoins is not to 'help you make money', but to keep close to 1 US dollar as stable as possible, providing a relatively reliable 'unit of account' when switching between different assets.

In the process of understanding different stablecoins, I also looked at some public materials and data pages, encountering designs like @USDD - Decentralized USD, which is over-collateralized and has on-chain verifiable reserves:

On one hand, by using various crypto assets as reserves and setting a certain ratio of over-collateralization, the logic of 'having actual assets to support' is written into the protocol;

On the other hand, core data such as collateral assets and collateral ratios are placed on-chain and in official transparency pages, making it convenient for users to check and compare before use, rather than just hearing 'we have reserves'.
The goal of these mechanisms is to keep USDD fluctuating around 1 US dollar as much as possible, and to assist price stability during extreme market conditions through preset rules and market mechanisms.

Of course, no stablecoin is 'absolutely safe', as there are different types of risks involved: price volatility of collateral assets, contract risks, changes in market liquidity, etc., which users need to understand and evaluate themselves. For me, what’s more important is:
Before using a certain stablecoin, can I see transparent data sources, clear mechanism introductions, and enough information to make my own judgments, rather than just relying on a simple promotional slogan.

This article is merely a study and compilation of publicly available information related to USDD, hoping to provide a perspective reference for friends researching stablecoin mechanisms. Any decisions regarding asset allocation and risk tolerance should be independently made by each user based on their own situation.
#USDD以稳见信

Disclaimer: The above content is a personal study note and does not constitute any investment advice or trading recommendations.

Can we still continue playing? 😬😥#luna
What do you all think??

The "Rebellious Youth" of the Crypto World is Being Integrated into the Global Financial System

In recent years, cryptocurrency has been like a disobedient rebellious youth:
On one hand, it is being chased and regulated,
On the other hand, its prices are skyrocketing and plummeting.

Now Abu Dhabi suddenly says:
"Alright, stop running around,
I'll buy you a suit,
and I'll also arrange a desk for you in a legitimate building."

When the rebellious youth starts dressing formally for work,
and begins to learn about compliance, clearing, and custody,
the story changes:
He is no longer just a "gambler's paradise,"
but may become one of the underlying protocols of a new generation of financial systems.

If this is truly a trillion-level long story,
you would want to be:
Someone who follows along from the very beginning,
or
Someone who only looks at the recap screenshots after the grand finale?

🔥Do Kwon is about to be sentenced, LUNA/LUNC: Will it surge first?

#DoKwon will have its final sentencing hearing on December 11. Once the news broke, $LUNA / $LUNC, which had been lying flat for a long time, seemed to be suddenly awakened by an alarm clock, doubling in three days, like an alarm clock that forgot to turn off but added some spice.🌐

The market's thought process is:
"Once the sentencing is done = old stories are over = new stories can be told."
Plus, $LUNC is still wildly burning tokens, reducing supply and increasing trading volume, combined with heightened emotions, it's definitely a “short-term supply-demand + FOMO script.”🔼
But don't forget, that major disaster in 2022 hasn't been erased from collective memory; the money lost hasn't come back automatically, and trust won't be instantly restored just because of one verdict. Right now, it's more about betting on emotions and expectations; while it rises quickly, corrections can also be just as intense.

LUNA/LUNC is like a roller coaster: it looks thrilling, but before you go up, please think carefully — are you the type who wants to get a refund after just one ride?⭐️
(Personal musings, not investment advice, those who are impulsive should calm down for three minutes.)

#LUNA
Can it reach $1 or $119? Unlikely, because that would require the market value to be between $5-6 trillion!

Has the "expectation gap" already been fully speculated? 📈🧨

Recently, the surge in LUNC / LUNA can be boiled down to several combined factors:
🧑‍⚖️ The sentencing expectations for Do Kwon have brought the old plot back into the spotlight;
🔥 The burning of LUNC + upgrades, along with the LUNA chain upgrade, are seen as signals that "the project is still alive";
💣 The shorts were overly confident and ended up being consecutively squeezed, leading to explosive trading volume and liquidation volume.

The key question is: this wave of "expectation gap" has almost been fully speculated.
Many positive factors have already been reflected in these few massive bullish lines; chasing now is like gambling real money on whether "more gains can be made."

👉 How to practically approach it:
1️⃣ For those already invested: replace "fantasizing about the ceiling" with "laddered take profit"
For example: suppose you have 1000 U and have already made an 80% profit in this round:
+50% sell 30%;
+80% sell another 30%;
Leave the remaining 40% as a "lottery position" and allow it to ride the elevator.
This way, even if it crashes later, you have at least secured some profits.

2️⃣ For those who have not yet invested: use "retracement + time" as dual filters
Do not chase on the day of a significant bullish line or the following day;
At least wait for a retracement of over 30% + a few days of reduced volume before considering small positions for low buys;
Chasing highs directly will only turn into a "high position duty representative" for most people.

✨ Summary: LUNC / LUNA is now more suitable as a practice textbook for "those already on the ride" to manage their positions, rather than a second emotional impulse entry for those who have not yet invested.

AI Working, I Lay Flat
Most projects are people working for projects; AIF's story is just the opposite:

"The one working is AI, and the one lying down with the chips is you."

Its setting is a never-stopping AI promotional machine:

Automatically opening various social media accounts;

Automatically posting content, following trends, and brushing presence;

Turning attention into traffic and traffic into profits.

These profits do not pay salaries or dividends, they are directly used to buy back AIF in the market, and then sent into a black hole for destruction.
So you can simply understand it as:

You buy the chips, the one working is AI, and the longer it lasts, the fewer chips remain.

This kind of story is very easy to tell in the emotional cycle: AI heat, Meme heat, deflation concept heat, it’s all related.
The only thing to remember is—no matter how attractive the story is, the position must be rational, a small position as an "AI working experiment" can last longer.

When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, it's like saying to the market: "Bro, money is cheap, spend freely." As a result, the stock market soars, and the cryptocurrency market goes even higher, with BTC and ETH being treated as the "new favorites." But don't forget, cheap money does not equal becoming smarter.
**Suggestions:**
* Mainstream coins (BTC/ETH) should be invested in a "monthly light spending" manner, buying small amounts every month;
* Altcoins are like spicy snacks, it's okay to taste a little, but don't make them your main diet;
* Contracts should be treated like fine wine, have a little to enhance the mood, but definitely don't get drunk.

《LUNC LUNA: The Retirement Coins in the Crypto World Suddenly Go Dancing》
Family, today the market is staging "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" again.
LUNC and LUNA, originally sitting in rocking chairs basking in the sun as "retirement coins," suddenly got up to go dancing today:
One up by 70%, the other up by 38%, the whole market looks like they are throwing a wedding.

Why is it rising? To put it bluntly—it's an emotional market.
A bunch of people are shouting: SBF might be pardoned? The market takes it as a "declaration of true love," pumped full of adrenaline, logic set aside, let's FOMO first.
Typical dead cat bounce: usually think it’s trash, but when it jumps, everyone rushes to grab it.

Operational advice:
For those already on board: get off when it's time, don’t let the roller coaster turn into a coffin;
For those still at the station: don’t chase the train, it's easy to fall and become a "model student on duty."

Opportunities in the crypto world are available every day, but the capital is only one share.
Calmness is the last dignity of retail investors.
In this wave of LUNC / LUNA, are you rushing in to dance, or just watching the fun at the door? Queue up in the comments to share your thoughts.
#加密市场观察 #LUNA

Perp DEX: While others are losing weight, my family has gained several times
This year, the market is losing weight, but Perp DEX is gaining weight in reverse:
The entire sector's market value has directly multiplied several times; while other tracks are working on their waistlines, it has already started customizing LV belts.

HYPE belongs to that type that grows from 3 to dozens of dollars, the 'class number one fat' —
It rises quickly, and the pullback can also raise people's blood pressure to the max.
ASTER is even more exaggerated; it started off ten times right after launch, and then a pullback sent a bunch of people from 'I want financial freedom' back to 'I’ll get off the bus first.'

Question:
You are now:
A. Standing on the sidelines eating melon
B. Sitting in the car feeling nauseous
C. Stuck halfway up the mountain howling?😅

$ETH #Market Major News
What? The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates? The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates? Powell has resigned? Trump has selected the next Federal Reserve candidate? All I can say is: Huang Mao's statement at 3 AM tomorrow will blow up the entire crypto circle!
But the most outrageous thing is my buddy, who has been continuously increasing his long position in ETH! This person is simply amazing, even I want to chase after his trades.
However, looking at the ETH pattern for today, there is still a trend of continued decline. The downtrend on the four-hour chart is not over, and there is resistance in the 2850-2900 range; if the rebound does not break this, we continue to look bearish!
Fortunately, our long position exited early, otherwise last night we would have gone back to square one, it's just too heartbreaking!

How to avoid being trapped in investments? These three strategies you must know!\nWhat is the worst fear in investing? It's being trapped. How to avoid being trapped? The key is to grasp the right timing for buying, position control, and setting profit-taking and stop-loss levels.\nFirst, don't chase high prices; avoid blindly chasing gains when the market is the hottest. You must wait for undervalued periods to buy, and when market sentiment is poor, you should go against the trend.\nThen, allocate positions reasonably; don't concentrate all your funds in one asset, diversify risks.\nFinally, set profit-taking and stop-loss levels; once the market reverses, timely stop-loss to ensure your principal is not damaged. #加密市场观察 #赚钱 $BNB $ETH \n

Daily Check-in👀$BTC

After being in the circle for a long time, I finally understand: real veterans have long been treating this as a 'serious side hustle'.
During the day, I accompany the boss to meetings, and at night, I deal with market fluctuations. I mainly do three things:
Look for arbitrage opportunities with controllable risks, aiming for an annualized return of 8–15%;
The money earned is not spent recklessly, but directly invested in quality assets that I have thoroughly researched;
The rest is left to time, allowing compound interest to slowly work for me.
It sounds unexciting and doesn't lead to instant wealth, but generating a cash flow close to a salary in a year keeps my mindset steady.
To be honest, is your current approach building a system or just betting on luck?🤔
#加密市场观察 $ETH

#ETH巨鲸增持 A few fat whales have been dug out on-chain, quietly buying ETH. When the price drops, they treat it like Double 11, while we only uninstall the APP when we drop. There will still be some fluctuations in the short term, but as long as the whales are eating, the direction is still brewing. Remember: the giant whales see the pullback as a discount, let's not treat discounts as a crash #ETH走势分析 $ETH

Not very old, but have encountered many pitfalls
Still working as a trader in the market.
This account mainly records three things:
1️⃣ Daily market views and simple trading plans
2️⃣ My real trading profits and losses, and review thoughts
3️⃣ As an ordinary young person, the process of 'not making mistakes' in this market
I do not promise you overnight wealth, just hope:
👉 When you come across my content,
you can avoid one more pitfall, have one less impulse, and gain a bit more clarity.
If you also want to be more stable, last longer, and be more composed in the crypto circle,
then we can follow each other
$BTC

Market View: Weak Rebound Cycle Continues
These days, I am not bearish; many altcoins are no longer following the decline. Each drop here is a short-term trap for short sellers. If you dare to short, you will be caught. The current correct approach is to find places with good liquidity and buying interest. ASTER has been saying this for many days. From 0.89, I have been increasing my position; continue to hold. Here, Bitcoin should still have close to 98,000 or 100,000 high points, and then we can consider reducing.
#Cryptocurrency Market Correction

I really feel that all altcoins ultimately end up dropping by 90%. I always wanted the spot to rise by ten or a hundred times, but when shorting, it can only drop by 99% at most. However, when I buy spot and go long, I always lose money, so I might as well short it, try with a small amount of capital first. After all, to be honest, I don't really short.