美股OK哥搬运号

During this May Day holiday, the annual highly-anticipated Berkshire pilgrimage is kicking off again.

Although Buffett has previously announced his retirement and stated that he will only be in the audience this year, perhaps out of concern for diminishing participation enthusiasm, his face still graces the tickets, accompanied by the slogan 'the legend continues.'

Interestingly, the entry tickets also feature a special note that reads 'new for 2026': CLEAR BAG POLICY IN EFFECT.

The official interpretation of this phrase should be '2026 new rule: only transparent bags allowed for entry.' However, this English note seems to carry a deeper meaning upon further reflection, almost like a clever double entendre, subtly hinting to everyone to 'liquidate.'

Discussing the potential for the US stock market to continue its bullish trend this year

Recently, the RSI indicator for the S&P index has seen a significant leap, shooting up from 30 to 70 in just a month. From an investment perspective, this signals a rapid shift in market sentiment from oversold territory to overbought conditions.

According to data from the Schaeffer agency, similar situations have occurred 13 times throughout the long history of the US stock market. It's noteworthy that out of these 13 unique instances, 5 directly led to the market hitting all-time highs.

If we further analyze the subsequent performance of these 13 historical movements, we find the overall bullish win rate to be quite impressive. Specifically, within one month following such events, the probability of the market recording gains is as high as 92%. When we extend the time frame to three months, the likelihood of maintaining an upward trend drops slightly to 85%. Observing six months later, the probability of increases again reaches 92%. Even over a 12-month cycle, the stock market's ability to sustain its upward momentum remains steady at 85%.

After understanding this detailed historical backtesting data, have your concerns about the future market eased significantly?

Hey traders, here’s the latest hype leaderboard for Reddit discussions on US stocks as of April 22. Reddit has always been seen as a key indicator for retail investors, similar to how 东方财富股吧 operates in China. Today, the spotlight is on car rental service provider Avis $CAR, which pulled off an epic short squeeze with a staggering 10x increase, catapulting it to the second spot on the hype chart, perfectly mirroring the wild frenzy we saw with GME back in the day.

Here are the top twenty discussions by hype:

1. S&P 500 ETF $SPY, mentioned 766 times
2. Avis $CAR, mentioned 424 times
3. Microsoft $MSFT, mentioned 188 times
4. UnitedHealth $UNH, mentioned 164 times
5. DTE Energy $DTE, mentioned 134 times
6. AMD $AMD, mentioned 130 times
7. NVIDIA $NVDA, mentioned 127 times
8. Nasdaq 100 ETF $QQQ, mentioned 123 times
9. Tesla $TSLA, mentioned 116 times
10. Vanguard S&P 500 ETF $VOO, mentioned 106 times
11. AST SpaceMobile $ASTS, mentioned 105 times
12. JD.com $JD, mentioned 81 times
13. POET Technologies $POET, mentioned 81 times
14. Antero Midstream $AM, mentioned 76 times
15. Amazon $AMZN, mentioned 72 times
16. United States Oil Fund $USO, mentioned 67 times
17. Reddit $RDDT, mentioned 55 times
18. Hims & Hers $HIMS, mentioned 54 times
19. Netflix $NFLX, mentioned 53 times
20. Beyond Meat $BYND, mentioned 52 times

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Yesterday, Goldman Sachs released its latest research report, once again directing the market's attention to the PCB/CCL sector. As a firm believer in this industry, the Goldman Sachs team emphasized that the future potential of this track in the vast field of artificial intelligence infrastructure has even overshadowed the previously popular optical modules.

Changes in the fundamentals also confirm this view. Related products have just experienced a price increase of 10% to 40% in April, and it is expected that prices will continue to rise in the second half of this year.

Looking at the current U.S. stock market, the number of targets in this sub-sector is not particularly large. For those who want to follow up and understand, there are two types of companies to focus on. First are the leading companies with the purest business, mainly covering $TTMI and $ROG. Secondly, some companies with relevant business lines are also worth observing, specifically including $SANM, $BHE, $PLXS, $JBL, $FLEX, and $CLS. If you have time, it might be a good idea to pay more attention to the market performance of these companies.

Get ready for the main event of the U.S. stock market! Starting April 20, the highly anticipated earnings super week is about to kick off. This will be led by giants such as Tesla, Boeing, and Intel, and I will outline the companies I personally plan to focus on.

Monday, April 20

In the pre-market phase, the basic materials and steel sector's $CLF Cliffs is worth our priority attention.

Tuesday, April 21

The pre-market session will welcome several heavyweight companies, including $UNH UnitedHealth in the medical health and insurance sector, industrial and aerospace giant $GE GE Aerospace, and $RTX RTX, which also belongs to the industrial, aerospace, and defense sectors. Additionally, diversified industrial group $MMM 3M, consumer and residential construction company $DHI D.R. Horton, and medical health companies focused on life sciences and diagnostics like $DHR Danaher will also announce their earnings.

After the market closes, the focus will shift to medical health field's surgical robot company $ISRG Intuitive Surgical. At the same time, in the industrial and aerospace sector, $UAL United Airlines, credit card and retail bank in the finance sector $COF Capital One, and online brokerage $IBKR Interactive Brokers, along with energy natural gas exploration and production company $EQT EQT will all release their latest earnings reports.

Wednesday, April 23

Before the market opens, technology data center infrastructure company $VRT Vertiv and industrial energy equipment company $GEV GE Vernova will release their earnings first. Following that will be industrial, aerospace, and defense sector's $BA Boeing, telecommunications service and telecom giant $T AT&T, and financial derivatives exchange $CME CME Group.

The post-market is equally exciting, with technology, electric vehicles, and robotics leader $TSLA Tesla being the absolute focal point. Following closely are technology and enterprise cloud software company $NOW ServiceNow, information technology services and hardware veteran $IBM IBM, and semiconductor equipment company $LRCX Lam Research and semiconductor and analog chip manufacturer $TXN Texas Instruments.

Thursday, April 24

The pre-market highlights include technology and telecom equipment supplier $NOK Nokia, financial payment service and credit card giant $AXP American Express, and industrial aviation sector's $AAL American Airlines.

In the post-market session, technology and semiconductor industry $INTC Intel will make a significant appearance. Also releasing earnings will be basic materials and gold mining company $NEM Newmont, energy oilfield services company $BKR Baker Hughes, and another technology semiconductor manufacturer $STM STMicroelectronics.

Friday, April 25

On the pre-market of the last trading day of the week, we will see the performance of consumer staples, household, and personal care giant $PG Procter & Gamble. Additionally, communication services, cable, and broadband company $CHTR Charter Communications and financial company $WU Western Union, which mainly focuses on cross-border remittance services, will also submit their reports.

I would like to remind everyone that the market conditions in the week after next will be even more intense, so please be prepared for significant volatility.

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The market's expectations for Netflix seem to be somewhat overly harsh at the moment. Although the latest financial report presented excellent data with a double beat, this has already become a given in the eyes of investors, and what truly triggers intense market concerns is the disappointing future guidance and the departure of the founder.

There is another significant reason behind this situation that cannot be ignored. Just a few days ago, the trading volume of call options for $NFLX saw an astonishing surge, with many retail investors betting heavily on the company's ability to achieve both a beat and a raise. However, the excessively high psychological expectations ultimately led this group of investors to suffer passive losses, which directly amplified the downward pressure on the stock price.

Looking back at Netflix's earlier years when it was not yet large enough, even a slight beat in financial report data could drive the stock price up strongly, and many people reaped considerable rewards from it. However, observing that the stock has declined after the last four earnings releases sends us a clear signal: when a company grows to such a large scale, forward-looking earnings guidance has become more decisive than merely beating the performance of a single quarter.

As the S&P index makes a beautiful V-shaped reversal and hits a new historical high, now is the best time to organize and update the benefits of opening accounts with US stock brokers, practical tool links, and a comprehensive list of invitation codes. This guide will continue to be updated until 2026, and it also provides you with free account opening appointment channels for Standard Chartered Bank and HSBC.

Next are the account opening details of major licensed brokers.

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Recently, the latest trading actions of well-known investor Duan Yongping have once again attracted everyone's attention. Knowing that such an industry bigwig is backing with funds, the enthusiasm of retail investors seems to have been significantly stimulated. In fact, since he began to be optimistic and go long, the stock price of Pop Mart has successfully reversed its decline, not only completing its bottoming but also currently rebounding by 14%.

This time, Duan Yongping still adopted his signature trading strategy similar to that of an insurance company, which is to sell put options. The specific setup of this plan is to set the exercise price at 150 and prepare 6 billion in funds as a backing for taking over.

According to the operational logic of this strategy, as long as the stock price of Pop Mart does not fall or continues to rise in the future, he can steadily earn the option premium, and this operation's annualized return can reach over 20%. Conversely, if the stock price falls below the 150 mark in the future, he will use that backing fund to directly buy the stock to complete the acquisition.

The enthusiasm and strength of the public for stock trading is indeed astonishing. Recently, Hynix's impressive performance in the market is a perfect testament to this. Currently, Hynix's stock price has risen again and reached a new historical high.

At the same time, Bank of America has just upgraded the company's target price from the previous 1,400,000 to 1,600,000 in its recent market assessment. This adjustment sends a clear signal to investors, indicating that institutions believe the stock still has up to 50% upside potential in the future.

In addition to its strong performance in the capital market, the treatment of employees within the company is also noteworthy. There are rumors that Hynix's performance bonuses for next year will be very generous, and if converted, the amount per person is expected to reach 6,000,000 RMB.

Recently, the Dallas Federal Reserve published a research paper titled "The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on U.S. Inflation," in which the predictive model constructed reveals the possible trends in the oil market. The model indicates that if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues until April to May, WTI oil prices are expected to reach 110. If the blockade lasts until August, this price will soar to 132. And if the strait remains closed until November, oil prices will further rise to a high of 167.

From a political perspective, 100 is undoubtedly the threshold most sensitive to WTI oil prices for Trump. As long as oil prices cross this threshold, TACO must inevitably cool down. The reason is that soaring energy costs will severely impact the daily livelihoods of American blue-collar workers and farmers, and this group of voters happens to be the Republican Party's most solid base. Against the backdrop of having to consider the midterm election situation, the current situation has become very clear: there is indeed not much time left for Trump to respond and break the deadlock.

Trump has recently begun to establish a joint escort alliance in the Strait area. In fact, as early as 1987, during an interview with ABC, he raised a question: since the United States provides escort services for oil exports in the Persian Gulf, why doesn't Saudi Arabia pay for this?

If this business model of charging for escort services really takes off, we can roughly calculate the economic impact.

First, there's the basic escort plan, which is mainly composed of destroyers. The daily operating cost of this model is about 1.6 million u. If we reference the data of 55 tankers passing daily before the outbreak of conflict, as long as we charge each ship 30,000 u as a toll, we can achieve a balance of income and expenditure.

Secondly, there's the top-tier escort plan that includes an aircraft carrier group. The average daily cost of this configuration can reach up to 80 million u. Similarly, based on 55 tankers daily, each ship would need to pay 1.45 million u to break even.

However, regardless of which of the above plans is chosen, they all seem more cost-effective compared to Iran's asking price of 2 million u per ship.

From a business logic perspective, the initial investment of massive funds to start a business is clearly not economical. Therefore, bringing in partners to share costs becomes the optimal solution. In this structure, other members contribute money and effort, while the U.S. holds the position of the major shareholder. This is also the reason why the joint escort operation naturally emerged.

Objectively speaking, deploying a top-tier escort group often means that the regional situation is highly tense, which may deter merchant ships from passing through. In contrast, the basic escort plan conveys a signal of relative stability, making it more likely to evolve into a normalized operational mode.

If we take normalized operations as a premise and set a gross profit margin of 50%, the charging standard for a single tanker can be set at 60,000 u. Calculating this way, it could generate a net profit of 1.6 million u daily.

More crucially, this new charge would have a minimal impact on global crude oil prices. After analysis and calculation, the cost per barrel of crude oil would only increase by a maximum of 0.3 u, which is essentially negligible.

This also means that the strategy would not violate Trump's public commitment to stabilize oil prices.

Such a brilliant plan that combines fame and fortune is indeed astonishing; perhaps he himself is currently considering it this way.

The PCE data for February announced today can be described as uneventful; fortunately, it hasn't brought greater pressure to the current situation. However, we must now shift our core focus to the more critical inflation data for March. It is particularly important to note whether the rising oil prices, following Trump's previous risky moves, will actually be transmitted to the overall inflation level. As for the exact answer to this, let's look forward to the data reveal at 8:30 PM tomorrow.

Welcome to follow the Reddit U.S. stock discussion popularity ranking on April 8. This ranking is similar to the well-known Eastmoney stock forum, serving as a core barometer for observing overseas retail investor sentiment. In today's market focus, Xiao i Robot surged 27 times in stock price after winning a lawsuit against Apple, strongly jumping to the third place in the popularity ranking. Meanwhile, the U.S. oil fund, which experienced a sharp decline, has also sparked widespread discussion in the market, currently ranking second on the list. Here are the specific targets in the top thirty and the number of mentions:

1st: $SPY (SPDR S&P500 ETF), mentioned 956 times
2nd: $USO (U.S. Oil Fund), mentioned 264 times
3rd: $AIXI (Xiao i Robot), mentioned 133 times
4th: $QQQ (NASDAQ 100 ETF), mentioned 125 times
5th: $DTE (DTE Energy), mentioned 113 times
6th: $MSFT (Microsoft), mentioned 107 times
7th: $TSLA (Tesla), mentioned 106 times
8th: $MU (Micron Technology), mentioned 81 times
9th: $AM (Antero Midstream), mentioned 78 times
10th: $AAPL (Apple), mentioned 77 times
11th: $UAE (iShares MSCI UAE ETF), mentioned 72 times
12th: $NVDA (NVIDIA), mentioned 62 times
13th: $YOU (CLEAR Secure), mentioned 59 times
14th: $WTI (W&T Offshore), mentioned 55 times
15th: $JD (JD.com), mentioned 54 times
16th: $NYT (New York Times), mentioned 53 times
17th: $ET (Energy Transfer), mentioned 46 times
18th: $QNCX (Quince Therapeutics), mentioned 43 times
19th: $IT (Gartner), mentioned 42 times
20th: $UNH (UnitedHealth), mentioned 40 times
21st: $ALL (Allstate), mentioned 39 times
22nd: $VOO (Vanguard S&P500 ETF), mentioned 37 times
23rd: $JUST (Goldman Sachs Just Us Large Cap Equity ETF), mentioned 36 times
24th: $INTC (Intel), mentioned 35 times
25th: $NOW (ServiceNow), mentioned 35 times
26th: $LNG (Cheniere Energy), mentioned 33 times
27th: $FOR (Forestar Group), mentioned 33 times
28th: $RDDT (Reddit), mentioned 33 times
29th: $IQ (iQIYI), mentioned 32 times
30th: $GCC (WisdomTree Enhanced Continuous Commodity ETF), mentioned 32 times

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Share two highly enlightening trading ideas with a high success rate in the U.S. stock market.

First, let's discuss an interesting phenomenon with a 100% success rate. Historically, whenever the well-known financial media CNBC launches the special program 'Markets in Turmoil', if you enter the market at that point, the probability of achieving positive returns on the S&P Index after one year is 100%, and the average return can reach +40%.

In addition, there is another operational guideline in the market with a success rate of 95.8% for everyone's reference. The specific approach is to decisively buy the S&P when the fear index VIX, which reflects market sentiment, rises above 35, and to sell when the index drops below 15.

However, despite these statistics looking very tempting, we must see a reality. In actual trading, this kind of operation, which requires constantly going against human instincts, often comes with a psychological torment that ordinary people find hard to endure.

U.S. stocks this week 3/30 earnings + economic events overview, focus on Powell's speech + March small and large non-farm employment

Monday 3/30

Earnings (Pre-market)

$RZLV (Rezolve AI): AI
$PAVM (PAVmed): Medical Devices
$FRMI (Fermi): Biotechnology
$PDSB (PDS Biotechnology): Biotechnology
$NMRA (Neumora): Biotechnology
$IMSR (Terrestrial Energy): Energy
$BCAX (Bicara Therapeutics): Biotechnology
$CBAT (China-Belgium New Energy): New Energy

Earnings (Post-market)

$PRGS (Progress): Enterprise Software
$DMAC (DiaMedica Therapeutics): Biotechnology
$ARKO (Arko): Retail
$GPM (GPM): Oil
$FTHM (Fathom): Real Estate
$BLNE (Beeline): Communications
$SGMO (Sangamo): Biotechnology
$PHR (Phreesia): Medical Technology
$SPCE (Galactic): Aerospace
$APC (ARKO Petroleum): Oil
$NLR (AirJoule): Energy

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech

Tuesday 3/31

Earnings (Pre-market)

$MKC (McCormick): Condiments
$PRPL (Purple): Mattresses
$TE (Teladoc): Telemedicine
$ALTI (Altium): Electronic Design
$AITI (Tiedemann Global): Finance
$IMNN (Imunon): Biotechnology
$BITF (Bitfarms): Bitcoin Mining
$CHA (Chagee): Tea Beverage
$AMS (ASHS): Healthcare
$JILL (J.Jill): Apparel Retail
$INKT (Mink): Biotechnology

Earnings (Post-market)

$BYND (Beyond Meat): Plant-Based Meat
$NKE (Nike): Sports Brand
$NCNO (nCino): Fintech
$BTBT (Bit Digital): Bitcoin Mining
$BNZI (Banzai): Marketing Technology
$AAUC (Allied Gold): Mining
$RH (RH): High-End Home
$SPWH (Sportsman's Warehouse): Outdoor Supplies
$PLAY (Dave & Buster's): Entertainment Dining
$PROP (Prairie Operating Co.): Energy
$FDS (FactSet): Financial Data
$SNX (TD SYNNEX): IT Distributor

Chicago PMI (March)
Consumer Confidence Index (March)
JOLTS Job Openings (February)

Wednesday 4/1

Earnings (Pre-market)

$LW (Lamb Weston): Frozen Potato Products
$NG (NovaGold): Mining
$CAG (ConAgra): Food
$TLRY (Tilray): Cannabis
$UNF (UniFirst): Uniform Rental
$VNRX (Volition): Medical Diagnostics
$PED (PEDevco): Real Estate
$MSM (MSC Industrial): Industrial Distributor
$NKR (Terra Innovatus): Technology

Earnings (Post-market)

$PENG (Penguin Solutions): Technology
$FC (Franklin Covey): Training Consulting
$CALM (Cal-Maine Foods): Egg Production

ADP Employment Numbers (March)
Core Retail Sales (Month-over-Month, February)
Retail Sales (Month-over-Month, February)
Manufacturing PMI (March)
ISM Manufacturing PMI (March)
ISM Manufacturing Price Index (March)
Crude Oil Inventory

Thursday 4/2

Earnings (Pre-market)

$NAMM (Namib): Mining
$LNN (Lindsay): Agricultural Irrigation Equipment
$AYI (Acuity Brands): Lighting Equipment
$ANGO (AngioDynamics): Medical Devices

Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits

Friday 4/3

Good Friday (U.S. stock market closed)

Average Hourly Earnings (Month-over-Month, March)
Non-Farm Employment Numbers (March)
Unemployment Rate (March)
Services PMI (March)

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According to statistics, up to 60% of NBA players will face bankruptcy within 5 years of retirement. To avoid repeating this fate, LeBron James specifically sought advice from Warren Buffett in his early years on suitable financial management. Buffett's advice at the time was very pertinent; he discouraged James from investing funds in managing restaurants and other complicated physical businesses, and instead recommended that he adopt a model of regularly investing a portion of his salary each month to purchase large-cap index funds like $VOO and $SPY. Buffett described this prudent investment philosophy as owning a piece of America. Later, the renowned investor Duan Yongping also fully understood and embraced this idea, and he similarly advised everyone not to blindly speculate in their investment portfolios, with simply buying the S&P being the best choice.

Today, through watching the reports from Phoenix Television, I noticed a very subtle detail observed by the station's Iranian reporter. The Iranian national television, which used to shout slogans about fighting to the end every day, has stopped this type of shouting in the last two days. In light of this situation, I suggest everyone to grasp the investment rhythm well and make sure to properly complete the positioning before the US stock market welcomes a super counterattack.

I recently noticed a paid research report published by Wedbush, in which the agency set the target stock price for $TSLA at 600. The core logic supporting this valuation expectation is that they predict Tesla and SpaceX will complete a merger by 2027. The report also mentioned that the recent collaboration between these two companies to create the Terafab chip factory is precisely the initial step to advance this merger plan. By the way, here's an interesting background detail: the agency's chief analyst has been a very famous Tesla bull in the industry. He proposed this merger viewpoint largely in response to concerns in the capital market about the potential dilution of Tesla investment funds if SpaceX were to go public.

Choosing to disclose such information at this particular moment makes one involuntarily sense that Trump is likely to take significant measures early Saturday morning. During this period, the U.S. stock market is very likely to remain stable and unharmed, but for Bitcoin, which has no weekends and trades continuously, it may have to undergo a test soon. On the other hand, the current visit to China is scheduled for May 14. From this, it can be inferred that the deadline regarding his personal plans about the expectations of war should be set for May, and there is still a whole month in April for the situation to evolve.

Analysis of the top 20 individual stocks in the US market called by analysts in the last 2 weeks (compiled from SeekingAlpha and traditional institutions), shared for your reference:

1. $MSFT
2. $MU
3. $AMD
4. $NBIS
5. $PLTR
6. $AMZN
7. $BABA
8. $CRWV
9. $AVGO
10. $ET
11. $GLD
12. $PFE
13. $BKNG
14. $RBRK
15. $NVDA
16. $META
17. $RKLB
18. $XPEV
19. $AMT
20. $CHWY