子衿_

Don't trust these people; they are all scammers.

Some people will conduct so-called token airdrops to a large number of wallet addresses. Generally, these tokens have contract vulnerabilities. Once you authorize it, they will have the permission to manipulate your wallet and steal from you. This is a situation that many new users encounter easily, so please be aware of the risks!

Remember not to buy U from strangers. There are many black U in the primary market, and most of the ones priced significantly lower than the market price are likely black U. If detected, the official will blacklist the wallet address; black U refers to unclean U, such as those obtained through wallet theft or money laundering. Additionally, some ill-intentioned people may provide you with a fake QR code when buying and selling, causing your wallet to be stolen (some newcomers may say there’s no black U in the market; please Google the fees and limitations of mixers).

The primary market is a dark forest in the cryptocurrency world. Some people will use any means necessary to deceive you. Do not click on wallet authorization links sent by strangers on Telegram, Discord, or Twitter.

$COAI McDonald's trend

$PHA
Position Direction: Long
Leverage: Full 10x
Entry Price Range: 0.04466 - 0.04380
Take Profit Targets: 🎯 0.046, 0.047, 0.0495, 0.05150
Stop Loss Price: 0.04290

$BTC The pressure has fallen to the 90,000 level and is continuing to fluctuate and consolidate. Currently, there are buy orders gathered around 89,000, which may form short-term support. Therefore, the intraday support can be referenced around 89,000-88,000 (this is also the 4-hour lower boundary support), while the resistance above continues to be referenced from the previous high of 91,700-92,200, followed by the 94,000 level.

Bitcoin is currently consolidating within an ascending triangle pattern and is rebounding from the Ichimoku Cloud, which serves as strong support.
If the price can strongly break through the upper boundary of this pattern, a bullish trend will be confirmed. Please pay close attention to subsequent price movements.

Everyone is focused on whether interest rates will be cut, but what we should pay more attention to is how great the divergence is among these big shots. Many people believe that a rate cut is a done deal, but economists at Nomura remind us that everyone is underestimating the risk of not cutting rates. After all, the regional Federal Reserve presidents may not all agree. If money isn't released this week, the market is likely to explode. Even if a rate cut happens, we need to see how many people voted against it. The more opposing votes there are, the harder it will be to ask for money in the future.

Briefing (12/8)
Today's Panic Index (24), although the counterattack signal yesterday was strong, the market trends this morning show that the bulls are undergoing a second confirmation baptism. BTC has not managed to break through the resistance in one go, while ETH remains the vanguard of the rebound!

BTC: Currently has broken through the 90,000 resistance level, with the short-term fluctuation range locked in at 88,000-93,000. If it can maintain stability at 91,000, the strong resistance level above is near the previous selling pressure zone at 92,692. Currently, trading volume has slightly increased, and although the bearish momentum is strong, it has entered the early stage of exhaustion. This is a phase of emotional repair after a significant drop, and stabilizing at 90,000 is key for the bulls to regain confidence.

ETH: The trend is noticeably weaker than $BTC . Although the price has rebounded, there is repeated contention around 3,090, and the bottom structure has not yet solidified. $ETH is currently in a broad bottom oscillation, with support at 3,000-3,020. If it cannot stabilize at 3,100 in the short term, there is a risk of a second bottom test at 2,900.

Market Analysis:
The market has shifted from bearish to bullish in the short term, but it refuses a violent V-recovery! BTC is challenging the strong resistance zone at 94,000, while ETH has successfully stabilized at the 3,100 platform. The current market is not the last train for those missing out, but rather a period of painful exchange of bottom chips. Strategically, maintain a positive outlook on core assets but avoid chasing highs at resistance levels!

$ETH The red area represents the support zone of 0.5-0.618. The market is volatile due to poor liquidity over the weekend, waiting

$BTC is currently facing resistance from the ascending triangle pattern's horizontal supply zone.
The price is still above the Ichimoku cloud, which is providing strong support.
We need to wait for clear signals of an upward breakout or downward breakdown to confirm the subsequent trend direction.

Risk warning is back! The Internet Finance Association has made four major strikes in five years, each time a nuclear bomb! Today, multiple departments jointly released the latest risk warning regarding the prevention of illegal activities related to virtual currencies. Looking back over the past five years, the Internet Finance Association has always acted at key points of market speculation, with each announcement delivering a nuclear-level impact on the market.

🗓️ Historical four major announcements:
Most recent: April 13, 2022 (Crackdown on NFTs)
Content: Released "Proposal on Preventing Financial Risks Related to NFTs."
Clear requirement: Firmly curb the financialization and securitization tendency of NFTs. Do not use virtual currencies such as BTC as pricing and settlement tools, and do not provide financing support.
Market impact: The domestic digital collectibles market rapidly cooled down. Leading platforms such as Tencent Huanhe and Alibaba Whale Explore tightened their rules, leading to the shutdown of many small and medium platforms, and the domestic NFT speculation bubble completely burst.

The most brutal crash in history: May 18, 2021 (The trigger for the 5.19 crash)
Released "Announcement on Preventing Risks of Speculation in Virtual Currency Trading," reiterating that virtual currency trading contracts are not protected by law. Financial institutions and payment institutions are prohibited from conducting related businesses (such as account opening, clearing, and settlement).
Market impact: The day after the announcement (May 19, 2021), market panic spread. BTC's daily drop once exceeded 30%, breaking the 30,000 USD mark from above 43,000 USD. The total amount of liquidations across the network set a historical record.

The beginning of the freeze card craze: April 2, 2020 (Crackdown on OTC)
Content: Released "Risk Warning for Participating in Speculation on Foreign Virtual Currency Trading Platforms." Pointed out that foreign platforms are not protected by law and that there are manipulative market behaviors such as fabricated trading data and malicious downtime.
Market impact: Marked an increase in regulatory attention toward overseas exchanges. Since then, the crackdown on funding channels for virtual currency OTC (over-the-counter trading) has significantly intensified, and the freeze card craze began to appear on a large scale.

In my opinion, regulation is a long-term variable. The announcements from the Internet Finance Association have never been predictions of short-term market trends, but rather a long-term positioning of domestic policies and the financial environment.

Briefing (12/6)
Today's Fear Index (21), the market correction has come! Yesterday, our cautious consolidation met resistance and became a reality. BTC fell below the 90K mark, ETH fell below the 3,000 mark, and the risk of a second bottom has surged! Bulls must regroup, or the market will return to the downward trajectory of a bear market. This is a critical moment to test the bulls' determination and financial strength! Ethereum's major upgrade in 2025 has been completed, and a faster and cheaper mainnet has arrived.

BTC: The price has fallen below all short-term and medium-term moving averages. This marks a reversal in the trend of the V-shaped rebound, with a return to weakness in the short term. A small head has formed in the head-and-shoulders structure around 94,000, with a rapid drop indicating huge selling pressure. The market will look for new support to complete a full second bottom process. Key support is at the psychological level of 88,000 and around the previous consolidation platform near 86,000. If support cannot be obtained around 86,000, it may directly test the previous low of 83,800.

ETH: After a significant retracement from the high near 3,240, the lowest point has approached the 3,000 mark. 3,000 is an important psychological and technical level that the ETH bulls have just conquered. Losing 3,000 will greatly undermine the bulls' confidence. ETH's goal is to retest the bottom support. 2,940 is currently the most important support line. Once broken, ETH will quickly drop towards the platform support near 2,850, with the final target being the previous low of 2,700.

Market Analysis:
The bulls' short-term rebound strength has weakened. BTC and ETH faced strong selling pressure at previous important resistance levels ($BTC 94,000, $ETH 3,250 nearby). The K-line trend shows an initial structure of a head-and-shoulders or M-top, with the moving average system being broken. The market is seeking new support, and recent lows (83,800 and 2,700) may face a second test! In terms of operation, it is recommended to stay in cash or maintain a very light position to observe, waiting for signs of stabilization at the bottom.

$BTC Today's Long and Short Liquidation Points
Short Liquidation Points:
92968, 93474, 94414,
95282-96294 (Last Short Liquidation Range)
Long Liquidation Points:
90220, 88845-87400 (Last Long Liquidation Range)

Shadow Chairman Hassett speaks out: A 25 basis point rate cut should happen next week! In an interview with Fox News, he clearly stated that the Federal Reserve should cut rates at next week's meeting! This is a common goal of Hassett and Trump.

In my view, although Hassett is dovish, he is also very pragmatic. He did not call for a 100 basis point cut, but rather said that if the market reaches a consensus on a 25 basis point cut, he would be willing to accept it. Moreover, he emphasized that the chairman must be highly sensitive to data, which indicates he is also trying to find a balance between policy inclination and central bank independence.
But Deutsche Bank has poured cold water on this! They believe the market is too optimistic about a dovish shift. Even if Hassett takes office, implementing rate cuts will face significant obstacles; by mid-2026, the fundamentals of the U.S. economy may not support substantial rate cuts. The hawkish members within the Federal Reserve Board will pose resistance.

Briefing (12/05)
Today's Fear Index (25), the market's rebound momentum has begun to slow and consolidate before a key resistance level. $BTC encountered selling pressure around 94,000, while $ETH is consolidating on the 3,200 platform. Bulls need to digest the recent significant gains, while bears are counterattacking. This is an important consolidation phase; if the bulls can continue to accumulate strength, a breakthrough is expected; otherwise, they will face the risk of a second pullback! BlackRock CEO: Some sovereign funds bought Bitcoin during the recent drop;

BTC: After reaching a peak of 94,150 yesterday, it retreated, showing clear selling pressure at the 94,000 level. The price fell back to around 92,992, indicating strong short-term support, but bullish momentum has weakened somewhat. Meanwhile, trading volume continues to shrink, and the market's hesitation before the key resistance level is evident. Lacking incremental funds, it is difficult to form an effective breakthrough. The key resistance is seen in the 94,000-95,000 area, which is the lower edge of the mid-November consolidation platform, where trapped positions are concentrated. If it can break through with volume and stabilize above 94,500 in the coming trading days, the next target is 96,635 (the high on November 17). If it falls below 92,536, the market may turn towards a pullback, first testing the 90,197 support.

ETH: The price is consolidating around 3,176. After a strong breakout above 3,000 the day before, it is currently consolidating at a high level. The moving average system of ETH still maintains a perfect bullish arrangement. The price is fluctuating narrowly above 3,144, showing strong bullish control. If the short-term target successfully breaks through 3,250, the next target is 3,370 (the high on November 13). 3,144 is the short-term lifeline, and if it falls below, it will test 2,993.

Market Analysis:
After the strong V-shaped reversal in the previous days, BTC and ETH have reached important resistance areas from the previous decline. Currently, the price is consolidating near MA7, showing that buyers and sellers are evenly matched. If it can break out of the current consolidation range with volume, the bullish signal will be strengthened; if it lingers without rising, or even falls below the short-term moving average, the risk of a second bottom test will greatly increase! In terms of operations, a "buy low, sell high" strategy should be adopted, or wait for a clear direction before intervening.

2026 is the main event, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates 3 times! If you are still struggling with next year's market, DelphiDigital's report directly focuses on 2026, giving all Crypto players a powerful boost!

Core prediction: 2026 may become an important growth period for cryptocurrencies! It is expected that interest rates will drop to 3.5%-3.75% by December 2025. There will be at least 3 more rate cuts in 2026! By the end of the year, the interest rate may be reduced to around 3%! At the same time, the quantitative tightening (QT) policy will officially end on December 1, 2025.

End of QT + reduction of transitional government assets + depletion of reserve accounts. These factors will collectively create the first net positive liquidity environment since early 2022! 🧭 The market policy environment in 2026 will shift from resistance to a mild tailwind. Long-duration assets, large-cap stocks, gold, and digital assets with structural demand support will all benefit.

In my view, Delphi's report perfectly confirms what we talked about earlier: the super bull market of BTC is ultimately determined by the liquidity of the Federal Reserve! The multiple rate cuts and net positive liquidity in 2026 are the strongest guarantees for the bull market.

The East Shatters the Dreams of Youth

🚀86% probability! Is he the next chairman of the Federal Reserve? Hassett's appointment = the beginning of a super bull market! Brothers, the prediction market Polymarket has pushed Kevin Hassett's probability of being elected as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve to 86%! This is basically a done deal. Once this favorite of Trump takes office, the impact on the BTC market will not be trivial, but structural!

💸 Two major actions after Hassett takes the helm of the Federal Reserve:
1. Accelerate interest rate cuts (aggressively easing) He believes that pausing interest rate cuts now is a very bad time, as the government shutdown has already hindered GDP growth. Once he takes office, he is expected to push for faster rate reductions, possibly lowering the federal funds rate to below 3%, even close to 1%! This is exactly what Trump wants.

2. Restart QE (turning the taps back on): His core philosophy: prioritize economic development over inflation control. He will treat the 2% inflation target as a flexible ceiling, focusing on employment and GDP growth. He believes that the current interest rates are obstructing economic growth, so under his leadership, the Federal Reserve is expected to restart quantitative easing (QE)!

Three major impacts on BTC (significant benefits!): A flood of liquidity is coming: accelerating interest rate cuts + restarting QE means the Federal Reserve's taps are fully open! This is the real engine for the rise of BTC, a risk asset. Hassett has deep ties to the Crypto industry! He has publicly held Coinbase stocks worth millions of dollars and has served as an advisor to Coinbase. Promoting legalization: He has participated in the White House digital assets working group and believes that BTC will rewrite financial rules! His appointment may reduce regulatory uncertainty, promote institutional integration, and greatly enhance the legitimacy and liquidity of BTC.

I personally have a generally optimistic view of the market. The real beginning of the bull market will be after Hassett takes office! The expected time is mid-next year, so the second half of 2026 will be crucial for the cryptocurrency industry. The 86% probability has already said it all. What we should do now is to layout in advance and welcome the liquidity flood brought by Hassett.

Briefing (12/4)
Today's Panic Index (27), the market continues to operate according to the script of 'bottoming out and rebounding.' $BTC has approached the 94,000 mark, and $ETH has successfully stabilized at 3,200. The strength and persistence of this rebound have completely reversed the short-term trend, and the market is currently launching an attack towards the mid-November volatility high! The crypto 'uptrend continues,' and after the release of ADP data, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in December remains stable.

BTC: The V-shaped rebound that started from the low of 83,822 has achieved its phased goal. All moving averages are developing towards a bullish arrangement, and the technical aspect is very healthy. The short-term target looks at the 95,000-96,635 area. This is a strong resistance area from previous fluctuations and the most important test for this rebound. Short-term strong support has moved up to around 93,054.

ETH: It did not stay at the 3,000 mark, breaking through strongly and continuing to rise. The entire moving average system has formed a perfect bullish arrangement. The short-term target looks at the 3,300-3,370 area. This is the starting platform of the previous decline and will face greater profit-taking pressure. The support level of 3,105 has become a short-term safety line.

Market Analysis:
The short-term strength is undoubtedly strong! BTC has successfully broken through and stabilized above MA99 (medium-term trend line), and ETH has shown a smooth upward trend. In the short term, bullish sentiment is high, and the market will continue to rise. However, when approaching the important previous platform (i.e., the volatility area in mid-November), be sure to be cautious of large funds selling at highs, and pay attention to taking profits in batches! A market correction is inevitable. If the price rises and then falls, breaking below BTC's 91,800 or ETH's 3,184, it should be regarded as the beginning of a short-term correction, and consider exiting.

$BTC Strong V-shaped rebound
93-93.8K key price range, suitable for long positions to take profit but not for chasing long, yet too early for shorting

Long: Enter after successful breakout and pullback
Short: Enter after breakout failure or false breakout retest for shorting