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#美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH
In the early hours of Thursday, the Federal Reserve is very likely to announce a rate cut. The script for the past few days should be a sharp upward movement, with Ethereum breaking 3300. Then, once the rate cut is confirmed, there will be a spike, breaking new lows before consolidating and oscillating upwards.
So, today there is an opportunity to buy between 3050 and 3100, accumulating positions in batches. Before the interest rate decision, it's better to take profits and wait for developments.
Buy the expectation, sell the fact. The script is written, let's see how the market performs, hehe.

#比特币以太坊行情分析 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH
· Bitcoin trading strategy:

· The current price is in a critical range. If the price can stabilize above $93,000 and break through $94,000, short-term sentiment may turn bullish, with the next target looking at $96,000-$98,000.

· If the price cannot effectively stay above $90,000 or falls below $88,000, caution is needed regarding the risk of deeper pullbacks, with support to watch around $84,000.

· Ethereum trading strategy:

· Pay close attention to how the price handles the $3,100 level. An effective breakthrough and stabilization is a signal for short-term strength, with resistance above looking at $3,240-$3,260.

· If the price consistently fails to break through $3,100 or falls back below $3,040, it may test the support area of $2,970-$2,900 again.

💡 Important reminder

Monitor liquidity: $84,000 and $94,000 are key liquidity areas for Bitcoin recently, and price fluctuations near these levels may intensify.

Manage risk: Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile. Be sure to set stop-loss orders, avoid using excessive leverage, and be cautious of sudden market fluctuations around key macro events (such as Federal Reserve policies).

#美SEC推动加密创新监管 #美联储重启降息步伐
·$BTC Bitcoin (BTC)
· Price dynamics: Dropped below $91,000, down 1.87% in 24 hours, currently fluctuating around $92,305.
· Key position: Repeatedly testing the key resistance zone of $93,000-$94,000.
·$ETH Ethereum (ETH)
· Price dynamics: Dropped below $3,100, down 2.80% in 24 hours.
· Key dynamics: Recently completed the Fusaka upgrade, increasing network activity.
· Sector performance: Overall pullback, with PayFi, Layer2, and DeFi sectors leading the decline, down between 3%-4%.
· Capital flows: Bitcoin spot ETF experienced a small net outflow of $14.9 million on December 3, while Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $140 million.

Current market trend core focus
· Key resistance zone: $93,000-$94,000 is the current core resistance. This area has repeatedly prevented price increases since Bitcoin pulled back about 30% from its historical high of $126,000.
· Potential trend analysis: Based on the game around this resistance level.
· If successful breakout: If it can consistently hold above this area, it may open up upward space towards $100,000 and even $120,000-$128,000.
· If breakout fails: If it fails to attack again, the price may fall back to the $85,000-$92,000 range in search of support.

Main factors affecting the market
In addition to technical aspects, the following are key market trends to watch in the near term:
1. On-chain supply tightening: Data shows that Bitcoin balances on centralized exchanges have dropped to their lowest level since 2017, indicating a decrease in potential selling pressure and strengthening the trend of long-term holding.
2. Macro policy expectations: The market generally expects the Federal Reserve may continue to cut interest rates in December. The expected shift towards easing monetary policy by major global central banks is an important macro backdrop supporting risk assets (including cryptocurrencies).
3. Institutional behavior divergence: The inflow of institutional funds through channels like ETFs has shown divergence. Bitcoin ETF fund inflows are slowing, while funds seem to be shifting towards assets like Ethereum, which may affect the internal rotation rhythm of the market.
4. Market sentiment and leverage: After significant fluctuations, the liquidation amount in the futures market has significantly decreased, indicating a decline in leverage frenzy, with the market entering a relatively rational consolidation phase.

#美联储官员集体发声 #美联储重启降息步伐 #特朗普加密新政 $BTC $ETH
The cryptocurrency market has seen significant gains. Among them, Bitcoin and Ethereum have both broken through key price levels, leading the market.

· Bitcoin (BTC): The price has risen above $94,000, with a daily increase of over 3%.

· Ethereum (ETH): The price has surpassed $3,200, with a daily peak increase of over 7%.

· Other mainstream cryptocurrencies: Generally following the upward trend, with good performances from Solana (SOL) and Dogecoin (DOGE).

Main driving forces behind the market rise

This round of increase is mainly driven by the following two factors:

1. Macroeconomic policy expectations: The market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in December are intensifying, which is seen as favorable for risk assets (including cryptocurrencies).

2. Breakthroughs at key technical levels: The prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum have broken through recent important psychological barriers (such as $94,000 and $3,200), attracting technical buying and possibly triggering short covering.

Daily trend analysis and operational ideas for reference

Currently, the market focus is on several key technical levels, providing observation paths for short-term trends. The following ideas are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.

Bitcoin (BTC)

· Key position: Approaching the core resistance area of $93,000-$94,000, with greater resistance above around $95,000.

· Potential paths:

· If successfully breaks: If it can stabilize above $94,000 and break through $95,000, the next target may look towards $99,000, even opening space for an assault on $100,000.

· If it encounters resistance and falls back: If it is blocked around $95,000, the price may retrace to test the support at $88,000-$89,000. If this support is lost, the adjustment may deepen.

Ethereum (ETH)

· Key position: Currently has broken through $3,200, with the next key resistance in the $3,260-$3,320 range.

· Potential paths:

· If successfully breaks: If it can strongly break through $3,300 and maintain, it may open up new upward space, even reaching around $3,700.

· If it encounters resistance and falls back: The support level to watch below is around $2,850; if it breaks below, it may test lower again.

#小非农ADP数据已公布 #加密市场观察 $ETH $BTC

According to the latest published data, the U.S. November ADP employment number ("small non-farm") is 152,000.

📊 Key Data Interpretation and Market Reaction

Project Data
Published Value +152,000
Market Expectation +158,000
Previous Value (October) +113,000 (revised)

Core Analysis:

1. Slightly below expectations: The actual data (152,000) is slightly lower than the market's general expectation (158,000), but the difference is minimal.
2. Significantly higher than the previous value: Compared to the revised 113,000 in October, employment growth has accelerated.

The market's immediate reaction is relatively calm, with no significant fluctuations in the dollar, U.S. stocks, and cryptocurrency markets after the data was released. This indicates that the market believes this report is neither strong enough to shake the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations nor weak enough to trigger concerns about an economic recession, falling into a "neutral to mild" category.

🔗 Comprehensive Impact Analysis on the Cryptocurrency Market

The impact of this "small non-farm" data on the cryptocurrency market needs to be assessed in conjunction with the more important subsequent ISM non-manufacturing PMI data.

· Implications for Federal Reserve Policy: The data does not indicate an overheated labor market, which somewhat strengthens the view that the labor market is slowing down in an orderly and moderate manner. This provides some support for the Federal Reserve to maintain its stance towards rate cuts, creating an overall environment favorable for risk assets (including cryptocurrencies).
· The key still lies in the Services PMI: The real focus of the market is on the upcoming ISM non-manufacturing PMI. If this data also shows a slowdown in service activity, then the logical chain of "economic cooling → rate cuts imminent" will be further solidified, potentially bringing clearer upward momentum to assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, if the ISM data is unexpectedly strong, it may offset the mild impact of the ADP report.

In summary, the "small non-farm" ADP data itself has not become a decisive factor driving the market. Its mild performance has temporarily maintained the market's optimistic expectations, but the key factor determining the market direction tonight still lies in the ISM non-manufacturing PMI data to be released at 23:00.

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