CryptoQuant Quicktake

The Mayer Multiple just dropped to 0.6 — meaning Bitcoin is trading at 60% of its 200-day moving average. This level of statistical deviation from trend has only occurred during severe capitulation phases.

📊 What This Measures

The Mayer Multiple is deceptively simple: current price divided by 200-day moving average. But what it captures is powerful — the degree to which price has deviated from its long-term trend.

A reading of 1.0 means price equals the 200-day MA. Above 1.0 means premium to trend. Below 1.0 means discount.

Key thresholds:

Above 2.4: Historically overbought (bubble territory)

1.0-1.5: Normal bull market range

0.8-1.0: Discount to trend (accumulation zone)

Below 0.8: Statistically oversold (capitulation)

Current reading: 0.6 — price is 40% below its long-term trend. This isn't a small dip. This is statistical extreme.

🔍 Historical Precedent

Mayer Multiple below 0.7 has occurred only during major capitulation events:

→ Dec 2018 (0.5-0.6): Bear market bottom at $3,200. 12-month outcome: +340%

→ Mar 2020 (0.5): COVID crash. 12-month outcome: +1,100%

→ Nov 2022 (0.5-0.6): FTX collapse bottom. 12-month outcome: +170%

→ Now (0.6): Current reading

Every prior instance of Mayer Multiple this low marked a clear capitulation.

📈 Why This Matters

When price deviates 40% below its 200-day average, the market is pricing in worst-case scenarios that historically don't materialize for extended periods.

The Mayer Multiple doesn't predict exact bottoms. It identifies statistical extremes where risk/reward shifts meaningfully.

⏳ What This Doesn't Guarantee

→ Precise timing (bottoms can take 2-8 weeks to form)

→ No further downside (can easily overshoot to 0.5 in panic)

→ Immediate reversal (consolidation often follows)

Current setup: 40% discount to trend, matching only the most severe historical capitulation phases.

Written by RugaResearch

The Sharpe ratio has just entered a particularly interesting zone, one that has historically aligned with the final phases of bear markets.

This is not a signal that the bear market is over, but rather that we are approaching a point where the risk to reward profile is becoming extreme.

In practical terms, the risk associated with investing in BTC remains high relative to the returns recently observed.

The ratio is still deteriorating, showing that BTC’s performance is not yet attractive compared to the risk being taken.

But this type of dynamic is precisely what tends to appear near market turning zones. We are gradually approaching an area where this trend has historically reversed.

The Sharpe ratio should almost be used in a contrarian way. It is a metric that reflects the consequences of market evolution, not a cause. In other words, it highlights that recent returns on BTC have been poor and continue to be so.

As a result, many investors are under water or under pressure, which often corresponds to phases where long term opportunities begin to emerge.

From here, two main approaches can be considered.

The first is to start building exposure gradually, step by step, as the ratio moves closer to zones historically associated with lower risk.

The second is to wait for the Sharpe ratio to clearly improve before increasing exposure.

It is important to stay realistic about timing.

This phase may last several more months, and BTC could continue correcting before a true reversal takes place. The signal is structurally constructive, but it needs time to develop.

There is no rush.

Written by Darkfost

The $BTC realized cap of new whales has increased even further amid the decline.

The Realized Cap continues to increase despite the price decline means that new whales are holding $BTC rather than selling.

Actually, whales have taken advantage of the decline to increase their accumulation.

Written by CW8900

The crypto bloodbath just took a wild turn! After a brutal crash that sent Bitcoin screaming to 16-month lows, the markets are flashing a massive "Buy" signal with the fear and greed index at an extremely fearful stage, and Solana (SOL) is leading the charge with over 25% gains in the past 24 hours, where it took support from a January 2024-based demand area.

Investors who were waiting for a sign to stop the bleeding may have found it. Here’s why SOL is the one to watch right now:

The Great Bounce: From $67 to $85!

Solana didn't just recover; it spiked from a key demand area. SOL skyrocketed from a low of $67.69 to approximately $85. This wasn't just a fluke, as it was a coordinated move fueled by:

The BTC Ripple Effect: Bitcoin’s climb back to $70,000 ignited the entire altcoin market.

Macro Mania: The Dow Jones Industrial Average smashed through 50,000 for the first time ever, sparking a "risk-on" frenzy that’s pumping tech and crypto alike.

The "Cooling" Bubble Map: Oversold & Ready to Rip?

The data doesn't lie. Solana’s Spot and Futures volume bubble maps are currently showing a "Cooling" trend. In trader speak? The market is massively oversold and has likely found its floor. We are seeing classic price exhaustion, and smart money is already moving in to capitalize.

Liquidity is Flooding Back

With a record-breaking $6.371 billion in USDT flowing onto exchanges on February 6th, it was the largest inflow of Q1 2026. This massive wall of liquidity is providing the fuel SOL and other assets need to maintain their price floors, and continued demand could spark an epic rebound in SOL and other assets.

Written by TopNotchYJ

The crypto market has faced severe turbulence over the past week, with Bitcoin plunging from $85K to $68K and Ethereum dropping from $3K to the $2K region. While retail sentiment reflects extreme fear, on-chain data reveals a massive contrarian move by smart money.

Data Analysis

The Binance 7-Day Asset Netflow chart highlights a striking divergence. Instead of panic-driven deposits typically seen during sharp sell-offs, Binance has experienced historic withdrawals:

Bitcoin (BTC): Net outflow of approximately $9 billion

Ethereum (ETH): Net outflow exceeding $2.7 billion

On-Chain Interpretation

Normally, strong price corrections trigger heavy exchange inflows as investors rush to sell. However, more than $11.7B in BTC and ETH leaving the world’s largest exchange during a market dump signals aggressive buy-the-dip behavior.

This strongly suggests that institutions and whales are absorbing panic selling liquidity and moving assets off-exchange into long-term cold storage.

Conclusion

This event marks a major transfer of wealth from weak hands to strong hands. The sharp reduction in exchange reserves lowers immediate sell pressure, pointing to a potential supply shock and the formation of a strong structural floor for the next bullish leg.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Ethereum is currently experiencing one of the most significant divergences in its history. While the price of ETH has faced heavy selling pressure—falling from the $3,000 level down into the $1,800–$2,000 range—on-chain activity has not only remained resilient but has surged to unprecedented levels.

On-Chain Data Analysis

According to the attached chart, the 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of Active Addresses has risen sharply, reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of 825,000 on February 3. This level exceeds the peaks observed during both the 2021 bull market and the 2018 market cycle, marking the highest sustained daily participation in Ethereum’s history.

Interpretation: Capitulation or Adoption?

This dramatic rise in network activity during a sharp price decline can be interpreted in two primary ways:

Panic and Capitulation:

A spike in active addresses during a drawdown often signals capitulation. This likely reflects large-scale movement of dormant coins and heightened retail activity, particularly transfers to exchanges for selling. Such behavior is typical during a “flush-out” phase, where weaker hands exit the market.

Fundamental Adoption and Utility:

Alternatively, reaching an ATH in active addresses may indicate that Ethereum’s underlying utility has never been stronger. Unlike traditional bear markets—where on-chain activity typically contracts—the Ethereum network is currently processing record levels of user interaction despite the significant decline in price.

Conclusion

The combination of an all-time high in active addresses (825,000) and a roughly 40% price correction points to a period of extreme volatility. Historically, elevated network activity near local price lows has often preceded turning points, as asset ownership shifts from panic-driven sellers to long-term holders. In this context, the $1,800 support level becomes a critical area to monitor moving forward.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Funding rate data on the XRP pair on Binance shows a notable negative shift in trader sentiment, as the funding rate has fallen to around -0.028, marking its lowest level since last April. This reflects the growing dominance of short positions over long positions in the derivatives market, signaling a clear move toward defensive positioning and hedging against further downside.

A funding rate this deeply negative is typically seen as a sign that traders are paying a premium to hold short positions, highlighting widespread pessimism about short-term price performance. This development comes as XRP trades near the $1.46 level after a gradual decline over recent weeks, reinforcing the view that the market is experiencing accumulated selling pressure.

Historically, funding rates reaching extreme negative levels often coincide with advanced stages of downtrends, when a large portion of traders are already positioned short. In some cases, such conditions have paved the way for temporary price rebounds driven by short-covering or a return of speculative demand, even if the broader trend remains weak.

From a behavioral perspective, this funding rate level reflects heightened caution and reduced risk appetite, particularly in the derivatives market. It also suggests that any sudden improvement in sentiment or positive news could trigger faster-than-expected price movements.

Written by Arab Chain

Despite movements that may have distorted the MVRV, such as large UTXO consolidations including more than 800000 BTC by Coinbase, I still find it interesting to analyze the signal it is sending today.

This chart is not simply showing the raw MVRV, which compares Bitcoin’s market cap, calculated as price multiplied by supply, with its realized value, which reflects the realized price in the market, meaning the price of each BTC when it last moved.

-💡Instead, this approach identifies where the current MVRV stands relative to its evolution within the present cycle. In other words, it does not rely only on the MVRV itself, a metric that is affected by Bitcoin’s structural evolution and its cycles.

It adds a probabilistic dimension and, more importantly, places the MVRV back into the current market context, which makes it meaningful again. -

Today, the MVRV sits in the 0 to 10 % percentile.

That means we are reaching an extremely low level for this cycle, to the point that the MVRV has been higher than this value more than 90% of the time during the cycle.

This is a strong signal that the market has gone through an extreme period of stress and that the current zone is clearly attractive for those looking to position themselves intelligently.

Historically, these areas have consistently preceded bullish recoveries.

On the other hand, when the MVRV reaches the 90% zone, Bitcoin tends to enter an overheated phase. These periods have always been followed by corrections.

These patterns repeat throughout the lifecycle of an asset like Bitcoin.

One day everyone wants it, the next day no one does.

If you want to outperform, follow the data rather than the crowd.

Written by Darkfost

Bitcoin’s latest price surge has raised speculation about a possible bottom or trend reversal. However, the key question is not the size of the move, but whether it reflects a structural shift in demand.

In Bitcoin markets, a “bounce” typically refers to a temporary rebound within a broader downtrend. Such moves are often driven by short-covering, position adjustments, and sentiment reversals, rather than fresh spot demand. They tend to occur after periods of heightened fear, when selling pressure briefly eases.

The on-chain indicator SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) provides important context. SOPR shows whether coins moved on-chain are being sold at a profit or a loss. When SOPR falls below 1, it indicates that market participants are selling at a loss, prioritizing risk reduction over profitability.

Historically, SOPR remaining below 1 has not marked market bottoms. Instead, it has appeared during early to mid bear-market phases, often alongside rebounds that fail to sustain. True bottoms have formed only after prolonged SOPR weakness, repeated failed recoveries above 1, and broad loss realization.

Current data fits this pattern. While price has rebounded, SOPR has yet to recover and hold above 1, and evidence of sustained spot-driven inflows remains limited. As such, today’s move is better viewed as a reflexive bounce within an adjustment phase, not confirmation of a durable uptrend.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Bitcoin is currently facing intense selling pressure, with the price dropping to the $64.6K region. A critical look at the market sentiment on Binance reveals a disturbing trend in the derivatives market. The Taker Buy Ratio (14-day Moving Average) has dropped to 0.48, marking its lowest level since October 2025.

The Taker Buy Ratio is a key indicator of market sentiment; values below 1 indicate that taker sell volumes (aggressive selling) are outpacing taker buy volumes. A drop to such a significant low suggests that sellers are overwhelmingly dominating the order book, aggressively hitting bids without sufficient buying resistance.

This capitulation in the ratio correlates with the sharp price correction observed recently. For a potential reversal or a local bottom, we need to see this metric stabilize and begin to trend upwards, indicating that aggressive selling is exhausted and buyers are stepping back in. Until then, caution is advised as the momentum remains heavily in favor of the bears.

Written by CryptoOnchain

After breaking the support line of the downtrend channel and testing the critical $60K region, Bitcoin is preparing for a decisive test at this Sunday's weekly close, 02/08/2026. A close within the channel's boundaries would strengthen the chances of a technical recovery. From a more optimistic perspective, a definitive break of the channel's resistance would validate a trend change, while a close below the channel's support reinforces the ongoing capitulation sentiment. The rally ignited on Thursday night, with a 17% gain, partially reversed the intense wave of selling that caused Bitcoin to suffer a 50% correction since its ATH in October. Bitcoin is now trading near its critical resistance level of $70K.

Written by GugaOnChain

📰 Daily Market Update:

Recent on-chain and institutional flow data is starting to paint a more cautious picture for Bitcoin price action.

📊 [Bitcoin ETF] Daily Netflow Trend

The chart tracks the daily net value (USD) of Bitcoin flows into spot BTC ETFs.

📈 Positive netflows → actual BTC buying → bullish price pressure

📉 Negative netflows → BTC selling → bearish pressure

🔬 Key Observation

📉 The chart highlights a second major negative outflow in February from BlackRock’s IBIT ETF.

📅 On February 5, IBIT recorded a massive net outflow exceeding $7.7 billion, the largest in this period.

📉 The first negative outflow occurred on February 2, with more than $4.7 billion leaving the fund.

📉 In second place, Grayscale (GBTC) also recorded a negative outflow of over $2.1 billion.

📊 BTC: UTXO Exchange Inflow SMA 7d

The chart breaks down Bitcoin inflows to exchanges based on wallet size categories, offering insight into which group is preparing to sell.

🔬 Key Observation

📈 A sharp spike in the light blue area representing Dolphin / Shark wallets.

📈 On February 5, inflows surged to 20,800 BTC.

📅 In our previous update, we already noted that February 4 saw inflows spike to 14,900 BTC.

📅 This is the first time inflows exceeded 20,800 BTC since October, when BTC was trading above $122,000.

📊 [Binance] Multi-Asset Netflow - $Value

The chart shows the net USD value flows of BTC, ETH, USDT, and USDC moving in and out of Binance, the biggest spot exchange by trading volume.

🔬 Key Observation

📈 On February 5, Bitcoin net inflows on Binance jumped to $727M.

📅 We have not seen similar BTC inflow levels since mid-November.

📉 At the same time, USDT recorded consecutive negative netflows, with the latest outflow reaching approximately –$450M.

🧠 Final Conclusion

⏲️ Historically, positive BTC alongside negative stablecoin flows are often interpreted as risk-off behavior, where market participants reduce crypto exposure.

Written by Amr Taha

The Daily Realized P/L Ratio just dropped into the "Low" zone with Panic Selling markers active. This isn't just "price went down" — this is the market's economic fingerprint showing forced capitulation.

📊 What This Measures

The P/L Ratio captures economic behavior price alone cannot: when coins move on-chain, are holders realizing profit or loss? Low readings mean loss-realizers dominate — margin calls, forced liquidations, emotional exits.

The Panic Selling layer confirms velocity: not gradual selling, but sudden forced exits matching historical capitulation patterns.

The distinction matters: organic selling can persist. Forced selling exhausts itself.

🔍 Historical Precedent

This exact setup — P/L Ratio Low + Panic Selling active — has occurred 4 times since 2016:

→ Dec 2018 ($3,200): 12-month outcome +340%

→ Mar 2020 ($5,000): 12-month outcome +1,100%

→ Jun 2022 ($22,000): NOT final bottom — fell 30% more before recovery

→ Nov 2022 ($16,000): 12-month outcome +170%

Three of four marked actionable bottoms within weeks. One marked the beginning of capitulation, not the end.

📈 The Pattern

When realized losses overwhelm profits and panic selling accelerates, we're witnessing forced capitulation — a condition that historically exhausts itself rather than persists.

⏳ What This Doesn't Guarantee

Precise timing (signal can lead bottom by 0-16 weeks), magnitude of further downside, or duration. This measures exhaustion of sellers, not absence of risk.

Current setup suggests forced selling is occurring. History suggests forced selling exhausts itself.

Written by RugaResearch

The Realized Price by Balance Cohorts metric reveals a clean breach across all major holder groups, with the 100k+ ETH cohort's realized price (~$2,074) acting as the most notable victim of this sell-off.

The current price of $1,823 now sits below the cost basis of every significant cohort tracked.

This is particularly striking for the largest holders (100k+ ETH), whose realized price has historically served dual roles: acting as formidable resistance during downtrends and reliable support during recoveries, as evidenced in early 2019, mid-2020, and late 2022.

When ETH decisively breaks through the whale cohort's realized price, two paths typically emerge rapidly: either a violent snap-back rally as the level flips to support (2020, 2022), or further capitulation into multi-year lows (2018-2019).

The middle ground rarely persists.

What makes this moment particularly noteworthy is the clean penetration across all cohorts simultaneously. The smaller holders (1k-10k, 100-1k, 10k-100k ETH) are all showing realized prices between $2,534-$2,675, creating a significant overhead resistance zone should price attempt recovery.

Risk Considerations:

- Critical levels: Watch whether $2,074 (100k+ cohort RP) can flip back to support in the coming weeks. A reclaim would mirror historical recovery patterns. Failure to recapture this level within 30-45 days historically precedes extended drawdowns.

- Downside scenario: A sustained break below $1,800 with no immediate reclaim of whale RP opens the door to $1,600-$1,300

The market is dominated by fear, but these inflection points separate reactive traders from strategic investors. History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes.

Written by MorenoDV_

Following a sharp correction that drained $6.05 billion (approximately 88,000 BTC) from the market in a single day, Bitcoin is showing a slight recovery, trading around $66.3K. The critical $60K support level withstood the pressure, but the current scenario points to a deeper structural correction fueled by sector deleveraging, institutional capital risk-off, and negative correlation with U.S. tech stocks.

THIS PRESSURE IS REFLECTED IN BROADER NUMBERS:

◾ Recent BTC Performance → Weekly: BTC -15%. Year-to-date: BTC -26%.

◾ Monthly Loss for the Entire Crypto Market → $1 trillion wiped out in the past month.

◾ Cumulative Loss for the Entire Crypto Market → $2 trillion contraction since the ATH on October 6, 2025.

PERSPECTIVE

The $60K support holds, yet selling pressure persists. The capitulation phase, as indicated by on-chain data from the previous analysis, combined with record capital outflows, suggests the downward movement has not yet found its exhaustion point. Talking about a sustained reversal at this moment is premature; rigorous monitoring of the macroeconomic landscape is required. Although a technical recovery has occurred, the predominant trend remains one of caution.

Written by GugaOnChain

On-chain data reveals a significant shift in large-scale market participant behavior on Binance. The Exchange Whale Ratio (applying a 30-day Simple Moving Average) has surged to 0.447, marking its highest level since March 2025.

Key Analysis Points:

Whale Selling Pressure: An elevated Whale Ratio indicates that the top 10 inflows account for a disproportionately large share of total deposits. This behavior typically signals that whales are aggressively moving funds onto the exchange, a precursor often associated with heavy selling (dumping) or hedging activities.

Inverse Correlation: As illustrated in the chart, this sharp spike in whale activity coincides directly with a significant price correction, driving Bitcoin down to the $64,500 region ($64.6K low). The divergence is clear: as whale dominance in inflows rises, price action weakens.

Market Outlook: This metric serves as a caution signal. As long as the Whale Ratio remains elevated, the market remains vulnerable to institutional selling pressure. Traders should monitor this metric for a cooling-off period; a reversal in the Whale Ratio is likely required before a sustainable local bottom can be confirmed.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin flow data on the Binance platform reveals a significant shift in the behavior of large wallets during the first days of February, with the whale inflow ratio reaching its highest level since 2022. This reflects a clear return of activity from major addresses on the deposit side of the platform.

According to the data, total Bitcoin inflows to Binance reached approximately 78,500 BTC, while whale inflows alone amounted to around 38,100 BTC. Consequently, the whale contribution to total inflows rose to approximately 48.5%, the highest level since 2022. These figures indicate that nearly half of the Bitcoin deposited on Binance during this period came from large wallets—an important development in the market’s structure.

This sharp increase in the whale inflow ratio does not necessarily indicate an immediate intention to sell. Rather, it may reflect a range of possible scenarios. For instance, some whales could be reallocating their positions or preparing to deploy liquidity in derivatives markets. Alternatively, this behavior may signal a desire to lock in profits or reduce risk after periods of heightened price volatility.

Historically, elevated whale inflows often coincide with market transition phases, when prices sit in a fragile equilibrium between supply and demand. In some past cycles, such readings preceded temporary selling pressure, while in others they aligned with accumulation and repositioning phases before subsequent upward moves.

Written by Arab Chain

Bitcoin SOPR has once again broken below 1.0, signaling that coins are being spent at a loss.

Historically, this level has marked regime shifts, not short-term pullbacks.

What stands out is the context.

In previous cycles (2018, 2020, 2022), sustained SOPR weakness below 1 did not mark the bottom.

Instead, it appeared early in the bear market, followed by extended periods of distribution, failed rebounds, and deeper capitulation phases.

At this stage:

SOPR is below 1, but has not reached extreme stress levels

Loss realization is rising, yet panic behavior remains limited

Price is weakening, but capitulation-like dynamics are still absent

This suggests the market is transitioning into a bear phase, not completing it.

Historically, true bottoms formed only after:

Prolonged SOPR suppression

Multiple failed recoveries above 1

Broad and persistent loss realization across holders

Bottom line:

SOPR confirms bear market entry, but the bottom is likely still some distance away.

This looks more like the beginning of a longer adjustment phase than a final flush.

Written by 우민규 Woominkyu

1. The first chart shows that after Long-Term Holders (LTHs) entered a loss zone during the 2021 cycle, downside momentum accelerated significantly.

2. The second chart indicates that as of today, Long-Term Holders have once again moved into a loss phase.

- Conclusion

Historical precedent from 2021 suggests that LTH loss entry often marked the beginning of panic-driven selling and the transition into a sustained bearish phase.

Therefore, premature positioning before clear trend confirmation may carry elevated downside risk at current levels.

Written by COINDREAM

The Coinbase Premium Gap has never been this negative since the beginning of the year.

Especially since this is a volume-weighted version, which helps reduce as much noise as possible by giving more weight to the largest volumes in the gap calculation.

When it turns negative to this extent, it means that the price of BTC on Coinbase Pro, a platform mainly used by professionals, institutions, and high-net-worth individual accounts, is lower than on Binance, a platform accessible to everyone and widely used by retail investors.

In other words, selling pressure coming from institutional players has intensified, pushing the price lower and creating a negative gap.

The current period is extremely challenging and highly uncertain, a climate that is not conducive to risk-taking and therefore to significant investments in BTC, which remains a volatile and risky asset.

Written by Darkfost