CryptoQuant Quicktake

Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) reflects whether coins older than one hour are being spent in profit or at a loss. Values above 1 indicate profit realization, while values below 1 signal loss realization.

Across the observed period, aSOPR continues to hover tightly around the 1.0 level, with frequent but shallow deviations on both sides. This structure shows that while some profit-taking occurs, it is not sustained or aggressive enough to indicate broad distribution. At the same time, dips below 1 remain short-lived, suggesting that loss-driven selling pressure is limited and quickly absorbed.

Compared to earlier phases in the cycle where aSOPR stayed consistently above 1 during strong bullish expansions, the current behavior points to cooling realized profitability rather than exhaustion. Importantly, the metric is also far from the prolonged sub-1 regimes that have historically marked capitulation or deeper corrective phases.

From an on-chain perspective, this positioning implies a neutral-to-slightly constructive market structure. Investors appear willing to hold rather than aggressively realize gains, while downside sell pressure remains constrained. Based on aSOPR alone, the more probable path is continued consolidation with a bullish bias, where upside continuation would require a sustained reclaim of aSOPR above 1, and downside risk would only increase if the metric begins to hold consistently below 1.

In summary, Adjusted SOPR currently supports a range-bound but upward-leaning market, rather than signaling distribution or capitulation.

Written by KriptoCenneti

📰 Daily Market Update:

Over the last few sessions, Bitcoin price has been consolidating around the $90,000 level, while on-chain data from Binance is starting to show some important early warning signals — especially from miners activity.

📊 Chart Breakdown: Miner Flow to Exchange [Binance]

🛠 What is Miner Flow?

Miner Flow measures the net USD value of Bitcoin transferred from miners’ wallets to Binance.

📈 Positive values → Miners are depositing more BTC than withdrawing → potential selling pressure

📉 Negative values → Miners are withdrawing BTC

→ accumulation or holding behavior

Since miners are the natural source of new Bitcoin supply, their behavior often plays a key role in short-term price direction.

🧠 Key Observations from the Chart

📈 We saw clear positive miner flows on December 11, 17, and 19, exactly while BTC was trading near $90K

* These positive spikes suggest miners were actively sending BTC to Binance, likely preparing for selling

* The last similar positive miner activity appeared in mid-November, which was followed by a price drop from above $103,000

* This doesn’t mean a crash is guaranteed, but historically, miner deposits at elevated price levels tend to act as a headwind for price continuation

Written by Amr Taha

The combined reading of the ETH vs BTC composite indicator and the relative volatility between Ethereum and Bitcoin on Binance provides an accurate picture of the market’s current position within the broader risk cycle The composite indicator which integrates relative price momentum, trading volume ratio, and the price ratio between ETH and BTC currently hovers around -0.46.

This negative reading indicates that Ethereum continues to lag behind Bitcoin in overall performance on Binance’s spot market. Historically, when this indicator remains below zero, it suggests that the market has not yet undergone a structural shift in leadership and that Bitcoin remains the benchmark asset against which both risk and liquidity are measured. A sustained break above the zero level would represent the key signal for the start of an ETH-led market phase; however, based on current data, such a shift has not yet materialized.

At the same time, relative volatility dynamics between ETH and BTC add an important dimension related to market risk appetite. Current readings point to a level near 1.5, following a clear downward trend from higher levels observed in previous months. This suggests that while Ethereum remains more volatile than Bitcoin, the intensity of that volatility is gradually declining. In practical terms, this reflects a cautious market environment in which participants are not yet prepared to meaningfully increase exposure to higher-risk assets. Historically, the early stages of Altseason have coincided with a sustained expansion in Ethereum’s relative volatility versus Bitcoin, signaling a broader willingness to assume greater risk conditions that are not yet clearly present.

Together, these signals indicate that Altseason conditions are forming structurally, but still lack the momentum confirmation required for a decisive start.

Written by Arab Chain

On-chain data indicates a notable shift in market sentiment for Ethereum futures on Binance. The Taker Buy Sell Ratio is showing signs of a strong recovery following the selling pressure observed in mid-December.

Crucially, the 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of this ratio has climbed back to the 1.0 threshold.

Key Insights:

Shift in Momentum: The recovery of the 7-day SMA to 1.0 signals that the volume of aggressive “Taker Buys” has caught up with “Taker Sells.” This indicates that traders are increasingly willing to execute long orders at market prices, balancing out the previous bearish dominance.

Bullish Signal: Historically, when this ratio reclaims the 1.0 level, it often suggests that the selling momentum is exhausting.

With the price consolidating near the $3K zone, this uptick in the Taker Buy Sell Ratio suggests that smart money or aggressive bulls are stepping back in, potentially setting the stage for a price reversal if the metric sustains above this key level.

Written by CryptoOnchain

The NUPL indicator shows that the market remains in positive territory, with the latest reading around 0.22. This level indicates that the average Ethereum holder is still sitting on unrealized profits, but these profits are moderate rather than excessive. Historically, this zone is classified as a phase of belief or cautious optimism, not euphoria. This suggests the market has not yet reached a dangerous psychological peak, while also no longer being in a fear or capitulation phase.

When this is combined with Ethereum Exchange Netflow data on Binance, the picture becomes clearer. Recent data shows that netflows have leaned toward net outflows from the exchange (frequent negative values), meaning that more ETH is being withdrawn from Binance than deposited. This behavior is typically interpreted as reduced immediate selling pressure, especially when it coincides with NUPL remaining in a stable positive range.

What stands out is that these withdrawals are not accompanied by a sharp rise in NUPL. This suggests the market is not experiencing widespread profit-taking. Instead, participants appear to prefer holding ETH or moving it off exchanges for other purposes such as long-term storage, staking, or ecosystem-related use. This constructive divergence between exchange outflows and the absence of NUPL euphoria represents a structurally healthier setup compared to previous cycles.

combining these two indicators points to a phase of strategic repositioning in the Ethereum market: profits exist but are not extreme, while selling pressure on Binance remains limited. This reduces the likelihood of sharp short-term corrections and leaves the medium-term trend more sensitive to structural and fundamental developments rather than short-term speculative momentum.

Written by Arab Chain

The BTC market remains in a Bear Market, confirmed by the BTC: Bull-Bear Cycle indicator and the MA_30D below the MA_365D (-0.52%) [CryptoQuant]. The BTC: Highly Active Address shows a consistent decline, reinforcing lower speculative activity and indicating that higher volatility lies ahead.

INDICATORS POINT TO A SLOWDOWN IN THE BITCOIN NETWORK – SMA(7)

◾ Transaction Count → drop from ~460K to ~438K → fewer transactions and reduced speculative use. In previous down cycles, declining transaction counts were a clear signal of waning speculative interest, with the network operating at lower volumes until new catalysts emerged.

◾ Fees USD → decrease from ~233K to ~230K → less congested network. In past bear markets, lower fees always accompanied periods of weaker demand, showing that users were not competing for block space, reinforcing a low-pressure environment.

◾ Highly Active Address → decline from 43.3K to 41.5K → fewer large players active, consistent with a defensive phase. Historically, when highly active addresses shrink, it signals retreat by traders and institutions, reinforcing the transition into quiet accumulation phases that precede future volatility.

COMPARISON WITH 2018

◾ Current data mirrors the 2018 bear market → fewer active addresses, declining transactions, lower fees, and retreat of major players. Today, however, the user base is larger (~800K vs. ~600K in 2018), showing structural resilience. Still, as back then, low activity often precedes heightened volatility.

CONCLUSION

The indicators confirm a defensive scenario, and looking ahead, the comparison with 2018 suggests that periods of low activity tend to precede greater volatility, but today’s broader user base signals stronger resilience in the ecosystem.

Written by GugaOnChain

The current market phase can be characterized as a post-rebound adjustment within a broader weak trend. At this stage, downside pressure remains conditionally dominant, though not decisive.

On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 0.75%, a move that had already been largely priced in. Consequently, the decision did not lead to sustained yen appreciation. Governor Ueda’s remarks emphasized uncertainty around future rate hikes, reinforcing expectations of a cautious tightening path. This macro environment is reflected in Bitcoin’s leverage and regional flow structure.

The Estimated Leverage Ratio indicates a clear decline during the recent downturn, suggesting that excessive speculative positioning has already been unwound. Importantly, leverage has not rebuilt despite ongoing price fluctuations, implying that yen-funded carry trade–driven risk-taking remains contained rather than expanding.

Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium Index has recovered from deeply negative levels but has not established a stable move into positive territory. This suggests that strong U.S.-led spot demand is still absent. At the same time, the moderation in negative readings indicates that selling pressure is easing rather than intensifying. Despite continued yen weakness, the lack of sustained spot buying implies that the current recovery does not yet reflect a structural uptrend.

A shift in this assessment would require the Coinbase Premium Index to stabilize in positive territory while prices rise without a renewed increase in leverage. Such a pattern would point to demand-driven accumulation.

At present, the base scenario remains a fragile recovery amid ongoing supply–demand adjustment.

However, if persistent spot inflows emerge, this view would need to be reassessed.

（Analysis Report No.154）

XWIN Research Japan is a certified analyst at @cryptoquant_com.

The XWIN Group operates the DeFi platform “xwin.finance”.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

The current Bitcoin market can be characterized as a rebound within a broader downward or range-bound phase. At this point, a cautiously bearish scenario remains dominant, although the data does not support an immediate or accelerating downside.

On-chain metrics show that Bitcoin’s Realized Cap, which had expanded steadily for roughly two and a half years, has flattened over the past month. This indicates that while price volatility persists, net new capital inflows have stalled. The lack of follow-through on price rebounds can be largely explained by this structural slowdown in capital entering the network.

In addition, 30-day apparent demand continues to trend lower, with successive peaks declining over time. Compared with prior bullish phases, buying pressure appears limited and insufficient to consistently absorb supply. As a result, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain higher price levels, increasing its sensitivity to downside moves.

In this environment, seasonal patterns and year-end anomalies carry limited explanatory power. The more relevant question is whether demand-side recovery can be confirmed through structural data. A renewed acceleration in Realized Cap and a sustained shift of apparent demand back into positive territory would be required to signal a meaningful change in conditions.

For now, the base case remains a consolidation and adjustment phase as the market waits for new demand to re-emerge. However, if on-chain data begins to show simultaneous improvement in capital inflows and demand, this assessment would need to be re-evaluated.

（Analysis Report No.155）

XWIN Research Japan is a certified analyst at @cryptoquant_com.

The XWIN Group operates the DeFi platform “xwin.finance”.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

According to the chart, the 30-day moving average of Ethereum Taker Sell Volume on Binance has dropped to approximately $6.3B, marking its lowest level since May. This indicates a notable decline in aggressive selling activity driven by market sell orders.

A contraction in Taker Sell Volume at this scale reflects a reduced willingness among traders to sell at market price, signaling that active sell-side pressure has eased. From a market-structure perspective, this often suggests that short-term sellers are becoming less dominant, particularly following a corrective or bearish phase.

Importantly, a decline in taker sell activity does not automatically imply a bullish reversal. Instead, such conditions are commonly associated with price stabilization or consolidation, where directional bias depends on whether aggressive buyers re-enter the market.

Overall, the drop of the 30-day SMA in Taker Sell Volume to multi-month lows points to a clear weakening of downside pressure in Ethereum. However, confirmation of a trend shift would require complementary signals, such as rising Taker Buy Volume or increasing Open Interest.

Written by CryptoOnchain

The BTC market remains in a Bear Market, confirmed by the BTC: Bull-Bear Cycle indicator and the MA_30D below the MA_365D (-0.52%) [CryptoQuant]. The BTC: Highly Active Address shows a consistent decline, reinforcing lower speculative activity and indicating that higher volatility lies ahead.

INDICATORS POINT TO A SLOWDOWN IN THE BITCOIN NETWORK – SMA(7)

◾ Active Addresses → slight increase from ~804K to ~837K → moderate recovery. Historically, in bear markets, small upticks in active addresses often reflect gradual accumulation but fail to sustain a consistent upward trend.

◾ Transaction Count → drop from ~460K to ~438K → fewer transactions and reduced speculative use. In previous down cycles, declining transaction counts were a clear signal of waning speculative interest, with the network operating at lower volumes until new catalysts emerged.

◾ Fees USD → decrease from ~233K to ~230K → less congested network. In past bear markets, lower fees always accompanied periods of weaker demand, showing that users were not competing for block space, reinforcing a low-pressure environment.

◾ Highly Active Address → decline from 43.3K to 41.5K → fewer large players active, consistent with a defensive phase. Historically, when highly active addresses shrink, it signals retreat by traders and institutions, reinforcing the transition into quiet accumulation phases that precede future volatility.

COMPARISON WITH 2018

◾ Current data mirrors the 2018 bear market → fewer active addresses, declining transactions, lower fees, and retreat of major players. Today, however, the user base is larger (~800K vs. ~600K in 2018), showing structural resilience. Still, as back then, low activity often precedes heightened volatility.

CONCLUSION

The indicators confirm a defensive scenario, and looking ahead, the comparison with 2018 suggests that periods of low activity tend to precede greater volatility, but today’s broader user base signals stronger resilience in the ecosystem.

Written by GugaOnChain

Recently, small whales' $ETH holdings have decreased.

However, large whales' $ETH holdings have increased significantly.

Large whales holding over 10k do not accumulate during a rally. They only accumulate when $ETH is undervalued before the rally begins.

And they have significantly increased their holdings since July, indicating that they expect an $ETH rally.

And the fact that they've had an all-time high level buying rate means that the upcoming rally has the potential to be an all-time high level.

Written by CW8900

Many are still waiting for an altseason, while others have already called it several times, yet the trend across altcoins has remained fairly negative in recent months.

Altcoins continue to struggle within the crypto market and are clearly suffering from the current lack of liquidity, even more so since the October 10 event.

- Since early October, the Total2 market capitalization (excluding BTC and stablecoins) has experienced a drawdown of roughly 36%.

- When excluding the top 10 assets, the situation is even worse, with a drawdown of around 46%, a very significant decline in just three months.

As a result, the percentage of altcoins on Binance that are still trading above their 200-day moving average has dropped to historically low levels.

Only about 3% of altcoins on Binance are currently trading above their 200-day moving average.

This highlights just how much altcoins have suffered and how little liquidity they continue to attract. It also suggests a clear lack of interest from investors, who currently prefer to protect capital rather than gain exposure to highly risky assets.

Even though it may seem counterintuitive, these types of periods often offer the best opportunities but this period may last for some time, especially if the market enters a prolonged bear phase.

Market conditions remain uncertain for now, but if a bullish recovery were to take hold, this would be a signal that should not be ignored.

Written by Darkfost

Data from Binance Bitcoin indicates that the daily momentum indicator stands at around 223.9 points, a level that remains positive in absolute terms but is lower than the peaks reached during previous upward movements. This figure reflects the continuation of the broader trend, albeit with a clear weakening in momentum, indicating that the market is no longer in an acceleration phase but has entered a period of relative slowdown.

The momentum change percentage is approximately 0.25%, a modest figure compared to the periods preceding price peaks, when daily gains were significantly higher. This decline confirms that recent rallies lack sufficient momentum to validate a strong new upward wave and suggests that current price action is being driven more by liquidity redistribution than by fresh buying inflows.

In terms of volatility, the data shows a relatively elevated level of around 777 points, while the volatility change percentage is approximately 0.88%. These values reflect a market environment that remains unstable, with persistent fluctuations despite weakening momentum—a pattern commonly observed during transitional phases of the price cycle, particularly near rebalancing zones.

Looking at daily trading volume, we observe levels below the high averages that accompanied previous upward surges. This decline in volume, combined with softening momentum, reinforces the view that the market is undergoing a period of relative calm and gradual profit-taking rather than experiencing broad-based selling pressure.

Overall, the figures confirm that the market remains structurally strong, but is navigating a delicate phase that calls for heightened caution, as volatility remains elevated in the absence of clear confirmation of a renewed strong upward trend in the near term.

Written by Arab Chain

Exchange flow data just confirmed the market's worst suspicion. This isn't healthy consolidation—it's coordinated de-risking.

Binance absorbed 16,239 BTC in net inflows over the past seven days, with whales accounting for 14,261 of those coins. Bitcoin flowing onto exchanges typically signals distribution pressure, and Binance's Buying Power Index at 2.53% confirms weak demand. Stablecoins aren't flooding in to buy—BTC is coming in to sell.

Coinbase tells an even darker story. While 4,270 BTC left the platform, the Buying Power Index turned negative at -8.67%. That means stablecoins are leaving too. Both assets exiting simultaneously isn't accumulation into cold storage—it's investors pulling capital out of crypto entirely.

The contrast between these exchanges initially looked like a divergence. It's not. It's confirmation. Binance shows distribution mechanics while Coinbase shows total capital withdrawal. The 20,509 BTC gap between them reflects the same underlying reality: money is leaving the system.

Coinbase's Buying Power Index hit -71% on December 11th before recovering to current levels, revealing the severity of the exodus from regulated venues. Binance's weak 2.53% reading shows global markets aren't stepping in to fill that void.

When both the world's largest exchange and the primary institutional gateway show capital flight, market structure matters more than hopium. Until stablecoins return and BTC exits reverse on Binance, or Coinbase's buying power turns positive, the path forward remains unclear.

The data doesn't lie. Capital is leaving, not accumulating.

Written by Crazzyblockk

Integrating on-chain data with market structure suggests Bitcoin is currently in a fragile technical state, increasing the probability of a deeper corrective move toward lower demand zones.

1. Technical Outlook

Bitcoin has lost bullish momentum after failing to reclaim the key resistance at $92,000, which marks the top of the current trading range. Price has now slipped below the Point of Control (POC) and is facing sustained downside pressure from key moving averages.

Additionally, the RSI has broken its prior uptrend, indicating weakening buyer strength and deteriorating momentum. From a market structure perspective, bears remain in control as long as price trades below the $90K–$92K region.

The next major downside target lies at the high-demand zone between $70,000 and $72,000, where stronger buyer interest is expected to emerge.

2. On-Chain Insight

Binance weekly netflow data is flashing a cautionary signal. According to the latest data, Bitcoin experienced a notable influx into Binance last week. The BTC Native Netflow recorded a net inflow of approximately $1.43 billion.

Positive exchange netflows are typically interpreted as rising sell-side risk, as market participants move BTC onto exchanges in preparation for potential distribution.

Conclusion

The combination of a technical breakdown below the $90K level and the injection of $1.4B worth of BTC into Binance significantly increases the probability of a corrective move toward the $70K–$72K demand zone.

Traders should closely monitor price behavior around the current POC, as failure to reclaim this level would further validate the bearish continuation scenario.

Written by CryptoOnchain

The current market phase can be characterized as a post-rebound adjustment within a broader weak trend. At this stage, downside pressure remains conditionally dominant, though not decisive.

On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 0.75%, a move that had already been largely priced in. Consequently, the decision did not lead to sustained yen appreciation. Governor Ueda’s remarks emphasized uncertainty around future rate hikes, reinforcing expectations of a cautious tightening path. This macro environment is reflected in Bitcoin’s leverage and regional flow structure.

The Estimated Leverage Ratio indicates a clear decline during the recent downturn, suggesting that excessive speculative positioning has already been unwound. Importantly, leverage has not rebuilt despite ongoing price fluctuations, implying that yen-funded carry trade–driven risk-taking remains contained rather than expanding.

Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium Index has recovered from deeply negative levels but has not established a stable move into positive territory. This suggests that strong U.S.-led spot demand is still absent. At the same time, the moderation in negative readings indicates that selling pressure is easing rather than intensifying. Despite continued yen weakness, the lack of sustained spot buying implies that the current recovery does not yet reflect a structural uptrend.

A shift in this assessment would require the Coinbase Premium Index to stabilize in positive territory while prices rise without a renewed increase in leverage. Such a pattern would point to demand-driven accumulation.

At present, the base scenario remains a fragile recovery amid ongoing supply–demand adjustment.

However, if persistent spot inflows emerge, this view would need to be reassessed.

（Analysis Report No.154）

XWIN Research Japan is a certified analyst at @cryptoquant_com.

The XWIN Group operates the DeFi platform “xwin.finance”.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Recently, $ETH has repeatedly touched the realized price of the accumulation address. This indicates that it has reached the average price of whales.

Nevertheless, the recent $ETH inflow to accumulation address shows further increases.

Although whale's profits have decrease zero level, they are accelerating their accumualtion.

If they expected a bear market, they would sell their holdings. However, they are buying, they expected a bull market.

Written by CW8900

📰 Daily Market Update

clear shift in short-term dynamics, driven by dual short liquidation events on Bitcoin derivatives, alongside a noticeable slowdown in USDT transfer activity across both TRON and Ethereum networks.

📊 BTC: Binance Liquidation Delta – What Happened?

💥 The chart shows two consecutive short liquidation events targeting late sellers on Bitcoin above the 87.7k level.

💥 Each liquidation wave exceeded $300M, with total short liquidations surpassing $600M

💥 The largest event wiped out around $533M in short positions above ~93.5k

⚠️ Short Squeeze Explained (Quick & Simple)

In derivatives markets, short liquidations occur when:

📉 Too many traders bet on downside

📈 Price moves higher against over-leveraged short positions

≠ Margin requirements are breached

* Positions are forcibly closed by the exchange through market buy orders

* These liquidations converted into aggressive market buy orders, pushing price even higher

📊 [USDT] Transfer Volume Daily Tron / Ethereum

The second chart compares daily USDT transfer volumes on two major networks:

🟢 TRON (TRC20) – Green

🔵 Ethereum (ERC20) – Blue

Key observations:

📆 On November 10, USDT transfers peaked:

💸 $13B on TRON

💸 $35B on Ethereum (cycle high)

📉 Since then, volumes declined steadily

📆 By December 15:

💸TRON dropped to around $1.7B

💸Ethereum fell to roughly $3.7B

🧠 Final Takeaway

Forced short liquidations often turn into short-term resistance zones.

At the same time, the noticeable drop in daily USDT transfer activity hints at fading liquidity momentum, which could limit upside continuation in the near term.

Tracking liquidation clusters and stablecoin flow trends remains essential to anticipate short-term market reactions and potential shifts in trader sentiment.

Written by Amr Taha

While the crypto market remains highly volatile, recent data from Spot Ethereum ETFs presents a concerning outlook for the second-largest cryptocurrency. Significant capital outflows from institutional funds during the week starting December 15, 2025, have added notable selling pressure to Ethereum’s price action.

1. Institutional Capital Flight

According to the available data for the week beginning December 15, 2025, Ethereum ETFs experienced substantial net outflows. BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF (ETHA) led this bearish trend, recording a massive outflow of approximately $467 million. Other major funds also saw notable capital exits, with Fidelity (FETH) reporting outflows of around $35 million and Grayscale (ETHE) losing roughly $49 million.

In total, weekly outflows exceeded $600 million, signaling a sharp reduction in institutional risk appetite for Ethereum at current price levels, which are hovering around $2,886.

2. Market Impact

This sustained negative netflow at the very start of the weekly candle significantly weakens buy-side liquidity. When institutional players begin the week by reducing exposure, Ethereum’s ability to defend key support levels diminishes considerably. These ETF flows are consistent with broader weakness across the altcoin market and may act as a catalyst for further downside pressure.

Conclusion

The clear reluctance of institutions to accumulate Ethereum at current prices—most notably reflected in heavy outflows from BlackRock’s ETF—serves as a serious warning signal for traders. Until ETF flows stabilize and turn positive, Ethereum is likely to remain under pressure, with an elevated probability of revisiting lower support levels.

Written by CryptoOnchain

In 2025, Bitcoin alternated between euphoria and correction, with whales, miners, and exchanges setting the pace. As December draws to a close, on-chain data reveals a market that, at first glance, appears to be consolidating. Yet beneath this short-term stability, several indicators expose clear signs of pre-distribution, consistent with the broader bear market context.

INDICATORS

◾Exchanges → Falling reserves (2.76M) reduce structural selling pressure. Exchange Inflows (26.2K) and Exchange Outflows (24.6K) show less aggressive accumulation. Binary CDD (0.42) reinforces the retention of long-term holders, while CDD [60MA] (27.6M) highlights that older coins are being distributed.

◾Miners → Miner Reserves (1.80M) show a slight reduction compared to historical levels, signaling that miners are continuously releasing BTC into the market, characterizing a long-term structural trend of distribution. On the other hand, Miner Outflows (7K) remain low, and the MPI (-0.45), calculated as the ratio between current outflows and the 365-day average, points to short-term accumulation. This combination reveals a divergence: in the immediate term, miners are accumulating and easing selling pressure; however, over the longer horizon, the persistent decline in reserves confirms structural distribution.

◾Whales → The BTC: Exchange Whale Ratio – All Exchanges (30D) is elevated (0.46), showing increased activity and signaling the risk of concentrated selling. CDD [60MA] (27.6M) confirms that older coins are being moved and distributed. The Bitcoin: Unrealized Profit – New Whales vs Old Whales indicator shows new whales at a loss (-18B) and older whales profiting (+147B), with MVRV (1.51) reinforcing profit-taking. Meanwhile, Bitcoin: Total Whale Holdings and Monthly % Change shows a decline (-7.89%), signaling heavy profit-taking and preparation for a new distribution phase.

CONCLUSION

Bear market confirmed: consolidation is superficial, fundamentals reveal distribution.

Written by GugaOnChain