25 years old and 10 years of trading experience: The evolution of talented trader PATH
Introduction At the age of 15, when he was still finishing junior high school, Path experienced his first stock market crash. Most people might not master the essence of trading even after ten years. But this 25-year-old, newly graduated young man, spent ten years cultivating himself into a trading actuary who regards "survival" as his first creed. Last year, his investment in Bitcoin's "Black Swan Lottery" netted him hundreds of thousands of dollars. Behind this success was an extremely sophisticated trading strategy. And behind this strategy was a trading philosophy called "ergodicity."
$Oracle (ORCL)$ Put ratio is almost "one-sided": Put accounts for 99.86%, with a net active buy of $888 million, and large orders concentrated on 25/12 260P, 280P, 290P (mostly BUY), resembling post-earnings protection/short squeeze resonance. Fundamentally, the guidance is weak + Capex raised, and the market is concerned about slowing returns on AI investments. 👉 Strategy: Do not bet against V, prioritize Put debit spreads (buy ATM Put, sell more out-of-the-money Put to reduce costs); use a Collar (sell OTM Call + buy Put) to lock in downside.
$Netflix (NFLX)$ Put ratio is 98.87%, with a net active buy of $23.49 million, more like event-driven hedging. The largest market disagreement surrounds Netflix's proposed acquisition of WBD assets, with concerns about regulation and integration (big deals are most afraid of "prolonged delays + repeated pricing"). 👉 Strategy: Lean conservative with bearish Put spreads; if only looking at volatility pullbacks, doing calendar spreads (selling near month, buying far month) is more cost-effective.
$Coinbase Global (COIN)$ The unusual purchase ratio shows almost all are Put: Net active selling of Put is $116 million, resembling "selling panic, collecting volatility." On that day, BTC fell below $90,000, and crypto stocks retreated simultaneously. 👉 Strategy: Lean bullish but control risk, use bullish Put spreads to collect interest; do not sell Put naked, at least pair with further out OTM Put for disaster protection. #OptionsFlow
【December 10th, US Stock Options Bull and Bear Rankings】 The Federal Reserve's final interest rate cut of the year has landed, with the Dow Jones soaring nearly 500 points. The S&P is just a few steps away from its historical high, with risk appetite warming up. Options funds are centered around AI semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, Bitcoin assets, and leading consumer stocks. $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)$ saw bullish trading volume with significant orders dominating: $599 million in Call options, with Calls accounting for nearly 100%, but there was a slight net sell (B:S≈0.7:1). Large orders for 26/01 100C and 25/12 170/190C were mostly in the MID, showing high turnover/coverage rather than all-in. The stock price closed at about $310, with consecutive gains in recent days, November revenue up over 20% year-on-year, and revenue growth of over 30% year-to-date. The AI chain remains strong. Strategy: Bullish in the medium to long term but cautious of short-term bubble bursts; it’s more suitable to use 2026 slightly out-of-the-money bull market Call spreads or gradually sell long-term Puts as “limit orders,” rather than chasing short-term in-the-money Calls. $Strategy (MSTR)$ ranked second in bearish trading volume, with Puts accounting for over 94%, continuing a strong hedge against high Beta Bitcoin stocks in recent days. The company has just invested about $960 million to buy over 10,000 BTC, with total holdings exceeding 660,000 coins. Bitcoin itself is also experiencing significant fluctuations around $92,000, but the stock price has still fallen more than 30% this year, showing clear characteristics of high leverage and high volatility. Strategy: This is a standard “BTC leveraged factor stock,” suitable for small positions to do structured options — bullish with 3-6 month bull market Call spreads or wide straddles, and bearish with bear market Put spreads to express views; it is not recommended for retail investors to sell Puts naked or heavily invest in short-term options. $Tesla (TSLA)$ ranked third in Call trading volume, with Calls accounting for nearly 80%, net buying of about $11 million (B:S≈7.4:1), indicating that funds are genuinely increasing their positions. The stock price has been fluctuating around $440–460 recently, with one side being strong promotions like 0% interest and 0% down payment to clear inventory, and the other side being Musk continuing to make grand promises about FSD/Robotaxi, pulling expectations against reality. Strategy: Bullish but able to accept volatility; use 2-3 month slightly out-of-the-money bull market Call spreads to replace short-term naked Calls; for those with existing positions, gradually sell Calls at higher strike prices to lock in some profits, hedging against the pressure on profits from aggressive promotions. #OptionsFlow
【December 9th US Stock Options Leaderboard】 JOLTS data continues to show a cooling job market, with the market betting on future interest rate cuts, and overall sentiment in risk assets is relatively warm; Bitcoin rebounded to around 94,000, also driving a number of high-elasticity stocks to be active. $Marriott International (MAR)$ stock price fell from above 300 dollars to over 280 within a week, a retracement of about 7%. Previously, the company lowered its guidance for US RevPAR to the lower end of the range, but Bonvoy's survey showed that 91% of Americans plan to travel in 2026, indicating that the fundamentals are "softening in the short term, but still optimistic in the long term." Call trading volume was 136 million, with calls accounting for 100%. Large orders were concentrated in 26/01 240C and 26/03 270C, with a neutral direction, resembling institutions using long-term calls to establish structured positions. 👉 Strategy: Bullish but do not chase prices; consider using a slightly out-of-the-money bull call spread (buy 240C, sell higher strike price) or a small position “sell Put buy Call” for risk reversal, earning time value, and avoid going all-in on short-term options. $Tesla (TSLA)$ rose from over 430 to around 445 dollars within a week, still within the rising channel since November; the company is launching year-end zero down payment incentives to clear inventory while emphasizing improvements in production processes and increasing investments in AI/FSD and robotics. The market still has imagination about the 2026 outlook. Today, call trading was about 41 million dollars, accounting for 63%, with a net purchase of over 2.5 million dollars (B:S≈3.2:1), a typical flow of “buying on dips during a correction.” 👉 Strategy: For those with spot positions, gradually sell medium to long-term calls around 470 for partial hedging; bullish but wary of volatility, use a 2-3 month bull call spread or a small risk reversal (sell slightly out-of-the-money Put, buy slightly out-of-the-money Call), and avoid going all-in on short-term options. $Strategy (MSTR)$ Bitcoin attacked again from around 90,000, with the company announcing yesterday the purchase of over 10,000 BTC, bringing total holdings to over 660,000. The stock price rebounded from the low of 155 dollars at the beginning of this month to around 190 dollars, but overall this year still saw a deep retracement. Investment banks cut their target price by nearly 60% while maintaining a “buy” rating, a typical high beta speculative stock. 👉 Strategy: Those looking to be bullish on BTC + MSTR are better suited to use a 3-6 month bull call spread or a small straddle (buy Call + Put) to trade volatility; it is not recommended for retail investors to naked sell Puts or heavily invest in short-term options.
【December 8th US Stock Options Leaderboard】 The market slightly corrected at historical highs (S&P down about -0.3%, Nasdaq down about -0.1%), overall risk appetite has slightly decreased, but AI infrastructure, consumer blue chips, and healthcare hedges are all on the list. $Broadcom (AVGO)$ ranked first in bullish trading volume, with Calls accounting for over 96%, large orders concentrated on the 26/01 360C active buy, with a buy-sell ratio as high as 70:1, options funds are crowdedly betting on "AI Plumber". The stock price has risen over 100% in a year, closing at about $401, approaching the 52-week high, multiple research reports have included AVGO in the "new seven giants", emphasizing the dual engines of AI switches + custom chips + VMware software, but the valuation is already not low. 👉 Strategy: Maintain a bullish bias but control leverage, prioritize slightly out-of-the-money bull market Call spreads for 2026 or "sell Put buy Call" risk reversal, avoid short-term options gambling. $Walmart (WMT)$ ranked 2nd in bullish trading volume, with Calls accounting for 100%, and simultaneously appeared on the unusual Put-Call ratio list (Put:Call = 1:∞), clearly indicating that funds are using Calls for directional or structural trading. The stock price corrected about 1.3% to around $113–114 after a continuous rally, but still rose about 12% in the past month, with an annual gain of about 20%+, regarded by institutions as a "long-term momentum blue chip", with management also promoting high-end city "dark stores" and e-commerce fulfillment models. 👉 Strategy: Long-term bullish investors are more suited to sell slightly out-of-the-money cash-secured Puts for distant months instead of chasing high prices; those with existing positions can write slightly out-of-the-money Calls to collect premiums on rallies. $Tesla (TSLA)$ ranked 3rd in bullish trading volume, with Calls accounting for about 53%, active buying B:S ≈ 3.4:1, indicating that there is still a considerable amount of funds buying low during the correction. The stock price fell about 3%–4% to around $440, mainly pressured by Morgan Stanley's downgrade from "overweight" to "hold" for the first time in two years, citing weakening EV demand and overly optimistic AI/FSD expectations, with increased volatility likely in the coming year. 👉 Strategy: Those with spot can sell medium-to-long-term Calls in the 450–480 range for partial protection; those looking to capitalize on the correction can use 2–3 month bull market Call spreads or small position risk reversals, which are more stable than naked long positions in short-term options. #OptionsFlow
SignalPlus Macro Analysis Special Edition: A 'Hawkish Rate Cut'?
Despite the risk sentiment stabilizing last week, the G7 fixed income market had a tough week as multiple non-U.S. leading economic data points unexpectedly improved. Australia's CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.6%, leading to a 15 basis point jump in its 5-year government bond yield, with the Australian dollar rising 2.5% against the U.S. dollar that month. Following this was Canada's employment report, which was extremely strong, far exceeding expectations (unemployment rate at 6.5%, expected 7.0%), triggering the most severe single-day volatility in Canadian 5-year government bonds since 2022 (+20 basis points), with the Canadian dollar surging 2%. In Japan, despite soft capital expenditures, the market is pricing in a 90% probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates this month, making the dovish Fed appear out of place in the G7.
【December 5th US Stock Options Rankings】 Index slight increase: S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.3%, overall oscillating near historical highs, the market continues to bet on another interest rate cut this month, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains around 4.1%. $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ leads in bullish transaction volume, with Calls accounting for 100%, net buying about 11 million USD, B:S≈5:1, typical 'leveraging with options' bullish behavior. The stock price is oscillating around 330 USD, down nearly 40% from the high of 540 at the beginning of the year, with recent research reports providing bullish arguments that 'medical payout rate pressure has peaked, and profit margins will recover starting in 2026', and today there is also a report of 'abnormal volume buying of UNH Calls'. 👉 Strategy: Bullish in the medium to long term but not wanting to heavily hold the underlying stock, can use 3–6 month risk reversal (selling slightly out-of-the-money Puts, buying slightly out-of-the-money Calls) or bull call spreads to enter; for those already holding a position, only a small amount of protective Puts is needed for tail insurance. $Google A(GOOGL)$ ranks second in bullish transaction volume, with Calls accounting for 98%, but net selling about 33 million USD, a large order for 26/02 260C directly SELL, clearly a move to lock in profits at high positions rather than chasing more. The stock price oscillates around 320 USD, up nearly 70% year-to-date, Pivotal raised the target price from 350 to 400 USD, stating it is 'leading almost everywhere' in AI TPU, self-developed chips, Gemini, YouTube, etc., but CEO Pichai has also reduced his holdings by about 10 million USD according to the 10b5-1 plan, with valuation expectations being quite full. 👉 Strategy: Those with cash stocks are more suitable to sell slightly out-of-the-money covered calls or do bullish spreads 'to collect rent'; those without positions but bullish can use selling slightly out-of-the-money Puts for distant months to replace placing buy orders, which provides more safety than chasing short-term Calls. $Nvidia(NVDA)$ a large order appeared in the rankings with a 26/02 170C SELL of about 30 million USD, indicating that some funds choose to lock in the gains of a significant increase in 2025 by writing Calls above the AI leader. The NVDA stock price slightly fell that day, recently oscillating around the high position of 180 USD, clearly entering a 'digestion period' compared to the broader market. 👉 Strategy: Those with NVDA and other AI positions can refer to this idea, using distant month slightly out-of-the-money covered calls to lock in some gains; for those without positions, don't chase short-term options in the oscillation zone for speculative profits. #OptionsFlow
【December 4th US Stock Options Rankings】 The market is fluctuating within a narrow range, with the S&P and Nasdaq slightly up, less than 1% away from historical highs, and the Dow slightly down. US Treasury yields are rising, but the market still bets on future rate cuts, with growth and large-cap stocks continuing to dominate trading. $Tesla (TSLA)$ has risen about 5% in the past week, closing up about 1.7% last night above $450. Sales in China rebounded in November, and Norway's annual sales hit a record high, but the Cybertruck's production is reported to be reduced, with fundamentals showing "rising sales + pressure on a single model." In the rankings, the bullish trading volume for TSLA is the highest, with calls accounting for over 86%, and a net purchase of about $12 million, indicating a clear bullish bias. 👉 Strategy: Maintain a bullish stance but control leverage; suitable to participate in slightly out-of-the-money bull call spreads for February to March; for those with existing positions, consider selling calls at a higher strike price to collect premiums and avoid chasing high naked calls. $Bank of America (BAC)$ stock price is around $54, setting a new 52-week high. Q3 earnings and revenue both grew by double digits, with several institutions raising their target prices. On the same day, it announced a comprehensive opening of cryptocurrency asset ETP allocation recommendations to wealth management clients, reinforcing the "traditional banking + digital assets" narrative. In the rankings, BAC calls account for 100%, but there is a net sale of about $26 million, suggesting a stronger inclination for writing calls at high levels to lock in profits. 👉 Strategy: Shareholders can use slightly out-of-the-money covered calls to reduce volatility; new funds should avoid chasing high prices and instead use far-out-of-the-money puts as "discount limit orders" to gradually build positions. $Booking Holdings (BKNG)$ travel demand remains resilient, with Q3 EPS and revenue both exceeding expectations and continuous dividends and buybacks, with the stock price hovering above $5,000. In the rankings, BKNG calls account for about 97%, but the proactive direction is nearly neutral, resembling a handover among bulls and structural adjustments rather than consistent chasing of gains. 👉 Strategy: The direction leans towards "slow bull + high volatility," suitable for using wide straddles or calendar spreads from January to March to profit from fluctuations; for those with long-term positions, consider selling a small amount of slightly out-of-the-money calls as additional "dividends." #OptionsFlow
【December 3rd US Stock Options Leaderboard】 ADP employment data weakened, interest rate cut expectations rose, and the US stock market overall remained warm, with chips and growth stocks continuing to dominate volatility. $Tesla (TSLA)$ Call trading volume topped the list, mainly driven by aggressive buying, with funds still leveraging at high levels; on one hand, expectations for US robotics/Robotaxi policies and optimistic sentiment about improved shipments to China pushed the stock price up, while on the other hand, declining sales in Europe and valuation concerns voiced by Michael Burry and others kept it in check. 👉 Strategy: Use a slightly out-of-the-money covered call for 1–3 months to reduce volatility if holding spot; bullish but cautious about a pullback, consider replacing short-term naked calls with a bull call spread around March. $Nvidia (NVDA)$ Call ranks highly, with slight net buying; the market fluctuated near the 50-day moving average, with funds more focused on high-level turnover rather than consistent selling. Congress has excluded new terms that would restrict its foreign supply, and negotiations for a multi-billion dollar collaboration with OpenAI are still underway, with multiple brokerages continuing to emphasize the AI leader logic, though export controls and valuation remain constraints. 👉 Strategy: For medium-term bullishness, prioritize using a 3–6 month Bull Put Spread (sell slightly out-of-the-money Puts, buy lower Puts) to profit from time value while controlling extreme downside risks. $Intel (INTC)$ Call has a high proportion but overall net selling indicates that some bulls are cashing in on the good news after a substantial rise. Recently, the stock price rebounded strongly due to a combination of factors such as "potentially manufacturing Apple's M series + expansion in Malaysia + government and SoftBank, Nvidia's stake," and the official confirmation to retain the NEX business, strengthening the AI + edge computing integration narrative. 👉 Strategy: Upside potential is limited; consider using a 1–3 month Call Credit Spread (sell high Call, buy even higher Call) to express a "bullish but less aggressive" view; for those really wanting to get in, sell far-month out-of-the-money Puts in batches as discount orders. #OptionsFlow
【December 2nd US Stock Options Top List】 The market rebounded slightly against the backdrop of stable interest rates and Bitcoin, with the Nasdaq up about +0.6%, and tech stocks continuing to dominate the market. $NVIDIA (NVDA)$ stock price has been fluctuating around $180 in recent days, with a small increase today, showing overall consolidation after a significant rise last week. On the top list, NVDA Call transaction volume ranks first, accounting for over 60% with net buying being positive, typical of a "trend-following capital replenishing positions" flavor. 👉 Strategy: Bullish but not advisable to over-leverage, suitable to participate in the upside using 2-3 month slightly out-of-the-money Call Spreads or Bull Put Spreads, as the risk/retracement of naked Calls is relatively large. $Tesla (TSLA)$ stock price fluctuates in a narrow range around $420–440 at high levels, with a year-to-date increase of about 7%, and about +20% over the past 12 months. Historically, December has a high probability of rising but also large volatility. Today, Puts account for over 70%, while the large-scale Puts for December 25 at 540 / 545 rank high on the large orders list, with most transactions occurring around MID, resembling institutions providing insurance for previous longs at high levels rather than purely shorting. 👉 Strategy: Hold spot: Consider using protective Puts or a Collar with expirations of 6-12 months to hedge Q4 / next year's volatility; for those looking to speculate on year-end trends: use short-term options for Call spreads, which are more favorable than simply buying high Delta Calls. $Apple (AAPL)$ has risen for 7 consecutive days, reaching a new high, closing near $286, and has formed a trend stock characterized by "AI concerns clearing + iPhone 17 sales exceeding expectations + multiple brokerages raising target prices". In the top list, AAPL's Calls account for as much as 95% but overall are net sold, indicating that institutions are more engaged in covered calls at high levels to collect premiums rather than continuing to leverage for longs. 👉 Strategy: Long-term bullish: Consider selling slightly out-of-the-money Puts on pullbacks as "limit orders"; for those with existing positions: moderately perform covered calls to increase cash flow, which is more cost-effective than simply continuing to increase positions. #OptionsFlow
BTC Volatility Weekly Review (November 17 - December 1)
Key indicators (4 PM HKT on November 17 to 4 PM HKT on December 1) BTC/USD: -9.6% ($95,600 -> $86,400) ETH/USD: -11.9% ($3,200 -> $2,820) After a plunge to the key support level of $80,000 two Fridays ago, the market last week attempted to lay the groundwork for the anticipated 'Christmas rally' amid thin Thanksgiving liquidity, with prices correcting upward from the lows. However, at the start of this week, the market quickly faced a reality check: the accumulation of long positions and the pivot level of $89,000 triggered significant selling during the Asian trading session. Although we do indeed expect the market to create a 'Christmas rally' later this month (especially considering that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates), we anticipate that the most likely path forward is to retest the lows from the current level, which in the long term presents a great buying opportunity. Those participants who did not sell during last week's rebound may begin to panic, especially if we do not see prices quickly rebound/rise to resistance levels ($88.5–90K), further fueling the downward trend in prices.
【December 1st US Stock Options Leaderboard】 The market cooled slightly today after a strong rebound at the end of November, with the S&P 500 down 0.5% and the NASDAQ down 0.4%. Cryptocurrencies also adjusted, and high Beta assets shifted from 'offensive' back to 'protective'. $Goldman Sachs (GS)$ topped the Call transaction volume list, with Call transactions around 280 million USD, accounting for nearly 100%. At the same time, it announced a 2 billion USD acquisition of active ETF issuer Innovator, strengthening its asset management and structured product layout. After a series of gains, the stock price corrected about 1.8% today, reflecting a trend of 'positive news landing + digesting gains'. Strategy: For those who benefit from the active ETF track in the long term, consider using slightly out-of-the-money bull call spreads with a 6–12 month maturity instead of increasing holdings in the underlying stock; for those with heavier positions, short-term covered calls to collect premiums are more suitable. $Apple (AAPL)$ continued its rebound, closing near 283 USD, with a strong short-term trend. However, the biggest news recently is that AI head Giannandrea announced his retirement, with Amar Subramanya taking over the AI line. The market is looking forward to a 'Siri reboot' while also worrying about the pace of AI advancement. In the options market, Call transactions were about 69.16 million USD, with Calls accounting for nearly 68%, but there was a net sell-off of about 23.40 million USD, indicating that funds prefer to hedge valuation and execution risks through writing Calls during the rebound. Strategy: For those holding AAPL stock, consider using slightly out-of-the-money short-term covered calls or collars (selling Calls + buying protective Puts) to smooth out pullbacks; for those optimistic about a medium to long-term AI reversal, consider using bull call spreads expiring around 2026 instead of holding long Calls. $Strategy (MSTR)$ experienced a single-day drop of over 3% against the backdrop of a significant decline in Bitcoin and the company's substantial downward adjustment of its full-year earnings guidance. However, a large order of approximately 55.14 million USD for the February 26, 165C appeared on the leaderboard, reflecting a typical 'bad news fully priced in, betting on recovery' mindset. #OptionsFlow
SignalPlus Macro Analysis Special Edition: Where is Santa Claus?
The market has taken a sharp downturn. Following a strong rebound in risk appetite on Friday, cryptocurrency prices suffered a significant drop as December began, with BTC falling below $87,000 again during the quiet trading period in Asia due to stop-loss selling.
While it is difficult to attribute this to a single cause, overall risk appetite remains fragile after the market cleansing in October and November, and a series of negative headlines that have emerged in recent trading sessions exacerbated the decline. Another OG protocol's DeFi was hacked (Yearn staking), a DEX terminal abandoned its highly anticipated launch due to a challenging market environment (Terminal Finance), OG Arthur Hayes publicly expressed his pessimism about the recent Monad ICO (implying a 99% drop potential), S&P downgraded USDT's rating to 'weak' (insufficient information disclosure), and the People's Bank of China reiterated its cautious stance on cryptocurrency trading and stablecoins — Overall, we have reason to believe that we remain firmly in a bear market until further notice.
【November 28th US Stock Options Leaderboard】 Black Friday half-day market generally rose: S&P 500 up about +0.5%, Nasdaq up about +0.7%, the overall market recorded its best week since June this week, shifting from the previous weeks' 'cut positions first and talk later' to a rhythm of 'daring to go long but with hedging'. $Tesla (TSLA) $ surged from around 390 to near 430 USD this week, with a nearly 10% increase in the past week, rising about 0.8% today, coupled with the FSD v14 starting a 30-day free trial in North America, raising expectations for Robotaxi. On the leaderboard, TSLA Call transaction volume reached 113 million USD, with Calls accounting for 97%, and there was a large order for a long-duration 2028 June 760C actively bought, typically using LEAPS to bet on the long-term 'Car + AI + Robots' combination story. Strategy: bullish but cautious of pullbacks, using 1-3 year slightly out-of-the-money Calls / Bull Call spreads instead of heavily investing in the underlying stock or short-term options will be more in line with the main players' thinking. $Lululemon (LULU) $ stock price rose from around 170 to near 184 USD this week, but is still halved compared to the year's high. The public conflict between the founder and management over brand positioning, along with tariff pressures, has made the market more cautious about long-term growth. On the options side, Put transaction volume was 50.52 million USD, with Put:Call = ∞, multiple deep out-of-the-money 2026 January 360/350 Puts traded at mid-prices, resembling long-term funds picking up valuations while hedging against performance risks over the next two years. $Adobe (ADBE) $ under Adobe Analytics reported that Black Friday online consumption reached 8.6 billion USD, up +9.4% year-on-year, with AI-driven traffic also significantly increasing. The stock price rose slightly by about 0.8% that day, but was surrounded by 100% Put transactions on the leaderboard, reflecting a systematic hedge against the overvalued SaaS and a mix of insurance selling. Strategy: such high-quality growth (LULU / ADBE) is more suitable for using Bull Put spreads, gradually selling slightly out-of-the-money cash-secured Puts or small protective Puts to manage rhythm, rather than betting on doubling with far out-of-the-money long Calls. #OptionsFlow
【November 26th US Stock Options Leaders】 The market has risen for four consecutive days, with the S&P 500 up about +0.8%, the Nasdaq up about +0.9%, and the VIX dropping to around 17, shifting sentiment from last week's "panic raising volatility" back to a state of "pre-Thanksgiving broad rise + cheap hedging". $Barrick Gold(B)$ $AngloGold Ashanti(AU)$ , driven by the strength of precious metals, surged about 4–5% in a single day, with total call transaction volume exceeding $200 million on the leaderboard, where AU was clearly dominated by buying, a typical "gold + interest rate cut expectations" positioning strategy. Strategy: For those bullish on gold but worried about pullbacks, consider using slightly out-of-the-money calls or bull spreads with a duration of 3–6 months instead of heavily investing in the underlying stock, capturing the trend while mitigating pullback risk. $Circle(CRCL)$ saw its stock price rebound by about +3.5%, but it is still down over 70% from its 52-week high. On the options side, the put transaction volume was $241 million, with a Put:Call ratio of ∞:1, and large orders concentrated on the December 2025 250P, which were mostly transacted at mid-price, resembling large funds seeking systematic tail insurance on high-volatility crypto beta rather than simply betting on a collapse. Strategy: For those holding CRCL/BTC positions, consider buying small positions in protective puts with a duration of 6–12 months, or use a collar strategy of “selling slightly out-of-the-money calls + buying further out puts” to reduce leverage. $Strategy(MSTR)$ experienced a slight rebound of about +2% amid internal buybacks and public controversy, but it had previously halved from its peak. On the leaderboard, put transaction volume was $174 million, with sellers clearly in the dominant position, resembling a situation where "some are catching the rebound while others are selling insurance on volatility." Strategy: For those looking to bet on a rebound, try to use small positions in bull put spreads/call spreads to cap the worst losses, avoiding a short-term options all-in directional bet.#OptionsFlow
【November 25th US Stock Options Rankings】 The market continues to rebound, S&P 500 +0.91%, Nasdaq +0.67%, VIX dropped from above 20 to around 18.5, sentiment shifted from last week's 'panic acceleration' back to 'cautiously optimistic', overall still betting on peak interest rates + year-end market. $Lululemon (LULU)$ was once again rated as a buy by brokerages, with a target price of $300, the stock price rose nearly 5% during the day, closing around $177, the previously lagging 'high valuation consumption' is starting to attract attention again. However, on the rankings, the Put trading volume reached $198 million, with Puts accounting for 99.8%, the largest single trade was a January 26th 540P with a nominal value of $127 million, the direction was in the mid-price range, more like large funds are buying the rebound while using long-term Puts to manage tail risks. Strategy: Bullish but don't want to bear the full decline can reference institutions doing bull market Put spreads (selling slightly out-of-the-money Puts, buying deeper out-of-the-money Puts), earning time value while capping extreme market losses. $Oracle (ORCL)$ fell nearly 2% during the day, closing around $197, mainly because DA Davidson cut the target price from $300 to $200, and the market began to reassess its cloud/AI order value and OpenAI contract expectations. On the rankings, ORCL Put trading volume was $223 million, with Puts accounting for over 99%, but the active direction showed neutrality, indicating that there is both protective buying against sell-offs and selling insurance to collect premiums during volatility, not a one-sided panic. Strategy: If you already have a heavy position, you can use slightly out-of-the-money protective Puts or Put spreads for 1-3 months to compress volatility; for those looking to 'buy the dip', it is advised to reduce leverage and avoid using short-term options to gamble on news. $Tesla (TSLA)$ just rose nearly 7% yesterday, today it rose again to around $419, a small positive continuation, FSD narrative + target price increase (some brokerages see $525) continue to support sentiment. However, the options market presents a different picture: TSLA Call trading volume was $111 million, with Calls accounting for about 61%, but there was a net sale of $84 million, the largest single trade was a February 26th 440C which was also actively SOLD, mostly high positions writing Calls to lock in profits/sell volatility. Strategy: Those holding the underlying stock can sell slightly out-of-the-money short-term Calls to do covered calls; those without positions but still bullish are more suited to use mid-term Call spreads instead of long out-of-the-money Calls, which has a much higher margin of error.#OptionsFlow
SignalPlus Macro Analysis Special Edition: Thanksgiving
After experiencing a sharp sell-off last week, cryptocurrencies are showing initial signs of stabilization. On Monday morning, prices rebounded from a low slightly above 80,000, trading close to 88,000. With Federal Reserve Chairman Williams rekindling expectations for a rate cut in December, the market entered the Thanksgiving holiday week with some cautious optimism. A strong stock market rebound (S&P 500 +1.5%, Nasdaq +2.7%) and early rebalancing fund flows as the month-end approaches also helped boost risk sentiment.
Risk sentiment has broadly improved, with BTC options open interest slightly turning positive and the put/call ratio for options expiring at the end of the month being around 0.67. A large number of put options have strike prices concentrated around 80,000, with bearish skew being actively bought, while call options are being heavily sold. The market undoubtedly feels better hedged against further declines, allowing it to enjoy a rebound above the 82,000 support level.
【November 24th US Stock Options Leaderboard】 $TSMC (TSM)$ today's stock price rose about 3.5%, continuing to fluctuate in the high range of nearly 40% increase this year. On the leaderboard, the Call transaction amount was about 285 million USD, accounting for over 98%, with large orders concentrated on February 26, 250 / 280 C, almost entirely active buying. Combined with Q3 revenue growth of over 40% year-on-year and the latest news surrounding US, South Korea, and the US chip tariff game, it looks more like long-term funds using LEAPS to lock in future AI capacity growth for 1–2 years. Strategy: Those optimistic about the long term but worried about pullbacks can consider using 1–2 year, slightly in-the-money / out-of-the-money Calls or bull spreads to replace heavy stock buying, keeping the single stock leveraged position at a small proportion of total assets. $Microsoft (MSFT)$ has declined from above 500 to over 470 over the past week, with a slight increase of about 0.4% on Monday marking a temporary halt in the downturn. In options, both Call and Put transaction amounts are above 100 million USD, with a large active buy order for February 26, 480 C, indicating that funds see this pullback as a long-term accumulation window, while Puts lean more towards “downside protection.” Strategy: For those with a medium to long-term perspective, using slightly in-the-money LEAPS Calls or Call spreads expiring around 2026 can form the core bullish position; for the short term, it is more suitable to use covered calls / light Put spreads for “limited drop” range trading instead of continuing to bet heavily on long Calls. $Meta Platforms (META)$ supported by advertising + AI expectations, the stock price has recently rebounded from adjustment lows, increasing again by about 3% to around 613 USD on Monday, with some investment banks giving an optimistic view of about 30% upside potential, targeting a price of 800 USD. However, on the leaderboard, the Put transaction amount is about 103 million USD, accounting for nearly 80%, combined with negative news about US lawmakers demanding regulators investigate its high-risk fraudulent advertising revenue, it seems like institutions are participating in the rebound while also buying insurance to lock in profits. Strategy: Those bullish but worried about regulatory black swan events are more suited to use protective Puts or Put spreads for hedging their underlying stocks / long Calls over a 3–6 month period; for those looking to buy low, they can sell slightly out-of-the-money Puts in small positions to exchange for chips, but should reserve sufficient margin.#OptionsFlow
【November 20th US Stock Options Leaderboard】 The market was led down by NVDA, with the S&P 500 closing down about 1.6% on the day, and the Nasdaq dropping over 2%. AI and crypto-related stocks gave back gains from previous days, and option funds clearly shifted towards defense. $Meta(META)$ Put traded 2.588 billion, the highest in the US stock market, with multiple active buys of long-term Put options for November-December 2025 at 650/725/750, as the stock price has been slowly weakening around $590 over the past week; meanwhile, the Australian minor social media ban, EU privacy fines, and the $190 million shareholder privacy settlement are pressing down, forming a typical 'high position + compliance risk' combination. → Those who already hold META are better off following institutional practices, using 6-12 months slightly out-of-the-money protective Puts or collars to lock in some floating profits, rather than adding leverage in a naked long position before the regulatory pressures are alleviated. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Today, Put traded 861 million, almost all Puts, still mainly net selling at 293 million; yesterday saw net selling of 192 million on the Call side. Since the high point at the end of October, the stock price has retraced about 10%, resembling large funds systematically selling volatility to bet on a wide range. → Those looking to take advantage of the adjustment can consider selling slightly out-of-the-money Puts for 3 months, combined with lower tier protective Puts to create a wide Put Spread, using the premium to build positions, rather than going all-in on the spot at once. $Coinbase Global(COIN)$ Has continuously ranked among the top three in Put trading for two days, with today’s Put trading at 703 million, a net buy of 270 million, the stock price dropping another 7% in a single day, plummeting from around $280 to over $230 in the past week, compounded by Bitcoin and the entire crypto market's significant retreat, forming a complete 'systemic risk + individual stock leverage' combination. → For those holding coins/stocks long-term, a more rational approach is to use 3-6 month 20-30% out-of-the-money protective Puts to price tail risk; for those looking to bet on a rebound, prioritize small position Call Spread rather than going full spot to catch the falling knife. #OptionsFlow
【November 19th US Stock Options Rankings】 The market continues a slight rebound, S&P 500 +0.38%, Nasdaq +0.59%, VIX falls back to around 23, appearing calm, but option funds are significantly adding insurance on high Beta targets. $Coinbase Global(COIN)$ Today's Put trading volume is approximately 953 million USD, accounting for nearly 100%, with multiple 2025 November 520/500/430 long-dated Put transactions nominally between 150-250 million USD, mostly trading at mid-price, resembling a long-term tail risk insurance given by large funds after a drop from 340 USD to around 260 USD, approximately a 25% retracement. Strategy: For those holding COIN stock / coin positions, you can refer to institutional practices, using 6-12 month slightly out-of-the-money protective Puts to lock in the bottom, or using a slightly out-of-the-money Call + buying longer-dated Puts collar to reduce net costs. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Calls traded at 239 million USD, with Calls accounting for 96% but a net sell of about 192 million USD, with a buy-sell ratio of only 0.1:1; combined with the stock price dropping from 507 to around 487 in the past two days, a retracement of about 4%, and market concerns about AI investment costs and internal friction, it more resembles the flavor of locking in profits at high levels + covered writing Calls. Strategy: MSFT is more suitable for short-term Covered Call / light Put Spread for 'limited downside' range trading, rather than continuing to go all in on long Calls. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ With earnings greatly exceeding expectations, and data center revenue and Q4 guidance continuing to be robust, the stock price rose by about 2.8%, and after-hours surged again, with Calls still showing net buying on the leaderboard, indicating that sentiment towards the core AI leader remains bullish. Strategy: For those bullish but wary of volatility, using bull spread instead of chasing high with a single leg would better align with the current 'continue to be optimistic but start to calculate' funding state. #OptionsFlow