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On December 16, 2025, Ethereum showed a downward volatility trend, with the evening's movement focusing on range breakout, significantly influenced by external factors such as non-farm data. The specific market analysis is as follows:

1. Price performance: Ethereum experienced violent fluctuations during the day, rebounding to 2976 after a drop to 2892 in the early morning, probing down to 2876 again in the afternoon before rebounding to 2950. Overall, it fluctuated repeatedly in the 2930 - 2970 range, failing to break through the psychological barrier of 3000 USD. As of around 16:00, the price was near 2932 USD, down more than 6% from before.

2. Key long and short points: Short-term support focuses on the 2870 - 2900 area, with strong support at the 2830 - 2850 area. Once broken, it may accelerate the decline to the 2700 - 2600 range. The pressure side first looks at the day's rebound high point of 2970, followed by the psychological barrier of 3000, the middle track of the Bollinger Bands at 3070, with strong resistance in the previous high point area of 3130 - 3170.

3. Technical situation: The four-hour level shows the price running closely along the lower track of the Bollinger Bands, with MA moving averages forming a death cross, and bears dominating the market. Although the hourly RSI indicator has moved out of the oversold area, indicating a short-term correction demand, the overall bearish trend is quite evident, and the price has tested key support levels multiple times, with insufficient rebound momentum.

4. Market and external factors: In the previous 24 hours, there were significant losses for bulls due to contract liquidations across the network, leading to cautious market sentiment. The release of U.S. non-farm data in the evening is a key variable affecting the market, which may trigger false breakouts or increase volatility. Additionally, the expectation of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan on December 19 has also brought uncertainty to the market.

On December 16, 2025, Ethereum showed a low-level oscillation during the afternoon, with prices fluctuating around $2940. The overall bearish trend remains unchanged, but there is a short-term demand for technical recovery. The specific market analysis is as follows:

1. Price Trend: Yesterday, Ethereum rebounded from around $3023 to $3176, then oscillated down to $2892 overnight until this morning, stabilizing and oscillating around $2940 in the afternoon. This is a significant drop from the previous high, having breached the psychological barrier of $3000 and the key technical support at $2960.

2. Technical Aspect: The daily Bollinger Bands are opening downwards, and the MACD has maintained a death cross below the zero axis, with bearish momentum not fully released. On the 4-hour level, the moving averages show a death cross; however, the RSI indicator has exited the oversold zone, indicating a short-term demand for technical recovery.

3. Key Support and Resistance Levels: Support is concentrated in the $2900 - $2850 region. If it breaks below, there is a high probability of testing the $2830 lower Bollinger Band; the resistance level first looks at the $3020 - $3050 region, and further, it is the $3080 - $3130 region. Currently, bullish momentum is insufficient, making it difficult to break through on the rebound.

In addition, its trend is closely linked to Bitcoin. If Bitcoin cannot stop the decline at $85000 and breaks further, Ethereum is likely to follow and break through the current support zone.

On December 15, 2025, the Ethereum evening market showed a fluctuating consolidation trend. While maintaining the key support at $3000, the rebound faces clear resistance. Below is a detailed analysis combining price, technical aspects, and market factors:

1. Price Performance: As of 12 PM on that day, the spot price of ETH was $3078, down 1.36% from yesterday's closing price. After a daily low of $3023, it rebounded, holding the psychological level of $3000, with a trading volume of 10.62 billion in 24 hours and a turnover rate of 2.86%, showing no signs of panic selling. Previously, it reached $3128 during the day, while on the 11th it touched $3436 before entering a correction phase.

2. Technical Aspects: On the daily chart, ETH has stabilized above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at $3076 for three consecutive days, indicating a demand for rebound. The upper resistance is at $3317, and the lower support is at $2835. The MACD has decreased in volume, with DIF and DEA hovering below the zero line. On the four-hour chart, the EMA trend indicator is in a contraction phase, with the upper resistance level at $3170, the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at $3135, and the lower line at $3011, with strong support below $3050. Additionally, short-term rebounds will face resistance in the $3175 - $3200 range, and it is necessary to reclaim $3280 to reverse the weak trend.

3. Market Influencing Factors: On the positive side, whales and institutions continue to increase their holdings, and the Ethereum 'Fusaka' upgrade has enhanced network performance, providing certain support for the price. On the risk side, the uncertainty of global central bank monetary policy remains, and market expectations for a Fed rate cut in January have cooled, coupled with a significant previous decline in the total locked value on-chain, regulatory risks persist, and these factors limit the rebound space for ETH.

On December 15, 2025, Bitcoin experienced a volatile downward trend with an initial drop followed by a slight rebound. Market sentiment, macroeconomic environment, and technical indicators are all leaning towards bearish. Here is a specific analysis:

1. Price Performance: On that day, Bitcoin's intraday price broke below the crucial $88,000 level, hitting a low of $87,967.8, with a peak intraday decline exceeding 2.4%; as of around 1 PM, the price slightly rebounded to around $89,600, but overall it remained in a low-level fluctuation. In the past 24 hours, the amount of liquidation in the cryptocurrency market reached $270 million, involving over 110,000 people, with significant market panic; the current cryptocurrency fear and greed index is at 16, indicating an extreme fear zone.

2. Macroeconomic Environment: The Federal Reserve's policy is a core bearish factor. After completing its third rate cut of the year last week, Chairman Powell's stance on whether to continue lowering rates in January next year is ambiguous. Many officials tend to maintain restrictive policies. CME data shows that the market believes there is a 75.6% probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in January. Additionally, the market is also watching the Bank of Japan meeting on December 18-19, where there is a high probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, which may strengthen the yen and impact risk assets like Bitcoin.

3. Technical Aspects: Bitcoin's moving averages show a bearish arrangement with a death cross, indicating clear bearish signals, but there are also potential rebound signals. On one hand, the CME futures gap at $90,400 has a magnetic attraction effect, serving as a key resistance level for a rebound; on the other hand, the energy tide indicator is showing a bullish divergence, suggesting that selling pressure may weaken. Currently, the $88,000 - $89,000 range has become a dividing line between bulls and bears. If effectively broken below, it could further probe down to $85,000 or even lower areas.

4. Institutional and Capital Trends: Standard Chartered Bank has significantly lowered its Bitcoin forecast, reducing the target price from $200,000 to $100,000 by the end of 2025.

On the evening of December 14, 2025, Ethereum showed a weak oscillation trend, with insufficient rebound momentum and pressure from key resistance, while market sentiment remained cautious. A detailed market analysis is as follows:

1. Price and Core Levels: Ethereum experienced a two-phase sell-off followed by a slight rebound on the day, but bullish strength is weak. It is highly probable that the trend will continue to oscillate or lean towards a decline in the evening. The current price is hovering around the $3000 - $3130 range, with key support focusing on $3000. If it further declines, attention should be paid to the vicinity of $2900. Resistance is concentrated at $3130, and if it breaks through, it could look towards $3160 and $3200, while the 50-day exponential moving average at $3310 is a more critical resistance level.

2. Technical Indicator Signals: The RSI on the daily chart is in the bullish zone at 54, and the MACD had previously issued a bullish crossover signal, but the 4-hour MACD has been continuously shrinking, with overall bearish volume having been released previously. However, the half-hour RSI has exited the oversold area and is gradually flattening, indicating that the downward momentum is slowing down. There may be a slight technical rebound in the evening, but it is unlikely to change the weak pattern.

3. Market Sentiment and Influencing Factors: The market is preemptively digesting the expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike on the 18th and 19th, with institutions and individual investors mostly in a wait-and-see state, and trading sentiment is sluggish. Additionally, Ethereum is clearly pressured by technical levels such as the MA60 moving average. After the macro-positive factors have faded, the technical pressure has transformed into actual declines, and there is a lack of strong positive factors to drive a market reversal in the short term, making the possibility of continued decline after a rebound greater.

On December 14, 2025, Bitcoin exhibited a narrow range of fluctuations during the afternoon, positioned at a critical directional choice node, with a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The specific analysis is as follows:

1. Price and Key Levels: The afternoon price fluctuated in the range of $90,000 to $92,000, returning to the psychological level of $90,000. The upper key resistance zone is $94,150 to $94,236; if broken, it can look towards $96,000 and $100,000 levels. For support, the initial focus is on $90,000, and if it breaks below, it may test the $85,900 to $86,300 area. A failure to hold $89,000 could disrupt the rebound structure.

2. Technical Indicator Signals: The daily MACD chart shows a bullish signal, but the RSI has not effectively broken through the midpoint of 50, indicating weakening upward momentum. The 4-hour chart has formed a triangle consolidation at the end, constrained by a descending trend line, with expectations of a "double top" pattern. There is a clear divergence in short-term bullish and bearish signals, and the trend remains unclear.

3. Overall Market Situation: The Fed's interest rate cuts have been digested in advance, coupled with weak earnings from U.S. tech stocks dragging down the market, resulting in decreased market liquidity, and traders are generally on the sidelines. On-chain data shows that institutions' "whales" continue to increase their holdings, retail positions remain stable, but altcoins are generally retreating. Funds are leaning towards flowing back into Bitcoin for hedging. The subsequent trend will focus on the breakthrough situation of the $94,200 resistance and the stability of the $90,000 support.

On December 14, 2025, Ethereum showed signs of stabilization and recovery during the afternoon session. The short-term momentum indicators are positive, but the overall trend is still under pressure from key resistance levels. The specific market analysis is as follows:

1. Price and Key Levels: The price of Ethereum stabilized above $3,200 in the afternoon, showing a fluctuating upward trend on the 4-hour chart. The current key resistance level is at $3,310, corresponding to the 50-day exponential moving average. Once broken, the next target could be $3,592; the intraday support level is in the range of $3,075 - $3,090, with around $3,128 providing some support for the short-term trend.

2. Technical Indicator Signals: On the daily chart, the RSI is in the bullish zone at 54, and the MACD has issued a bullish crossover signal, indicating that short-term bullish momentum is leaning towards positive. However, the price is still below the main EMA, and the overall trend has not completely reversed from a bearish pattern. Additionally, the open interest in the futures market has previously exceeded $40 billion, indicating strong confidence in the leveraged market, which also provides some support for the price.

3. Overall Market Situation: Currently, the cryptocurrency market is generally trapped in a narrow range of fluctuations, and the hourly trading volume of Ethereum has not shown significant growth, with market sentiment remaining cautious. Previously, the macro-level benefits of the Fed's interest rate cuts have been digested, and the subsequent trend largely depends on whether it can hold above the $3,310 resistance level. If it can stabilize or reverse the short-term downtrend, it may move higher; otherwise, it may test the lower support range.

On December 13, 2025, Bitcoin exhibited a high-level volatility during the midday session, with prices fluctuating around $92,000, overall trapped in the range of $88,000 - $94,000, and has not formed an effective breakthrough. The specific market analysis is as follows:

1. Price and Trading Data: During the midday session, Bitcoin's 24-hour decline exceeded 2%, with prices dropping from $94,000 to $89,237, a maximum fluctuation of over 4.8%. The total liquidation amount across the network exceeded $532 million within 24 hours, with Bitcoin alone accounting for $170 million in liquidations, and the proportion of long liquidations exceeding 75%. At the same time, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is approximately $3.15 trillion, with a total trading volume of $125.41 billion in 24 hours, and the market sentiment index at 28, indicating a state of 'fear'.

2. Key Support and Resistance: The immediate resistance level above is around $94,000 - $94,200, which coincides with recent highs and the upper Bollinger Band; the primary support below focuses on the psychological level of $90,000 - $91,000, with stronger support near $87,500, and the mid-line support at the $85,500 level.

3. Technical Indicator Situation: The daily MACD is showing an upward trend, but the DIF and DEA are slowing down as they approach the 0 axis, indicating a clear short-term bearish trend, while the Bollinger Bands are in a contracted state; on the 4-hour chart, the EMA trend indicator is contracting, the MACD shows a decrease in volume and the DIF and DEA have formed a death cross; however, the lower Bollinger Band support at $89,300 remains effective. In addition, the daily RSI is around 58, indicating a healthy bullish zone, and has not reached overbought levels, suggesting there may be room for continued upward movement.

4. Market and Macroeconomic Impact: After the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the market has adjusted in anticipation of good news, while its initiated 'Reserve Management Purchase Program' may provide support for the crypto market. On-chain data shows that large Bitcoin holders have resumed accumulation patterns by the end of November.

On the evening of December 12, 2025, Ethereum was in a state of fluctuating game, with price, technical indicators, and market sentiment all showing characteristics of range volatility. The specific market analysis is as follows:

1. Price and Market Data: As of around 5 PM on the 12th, the Ethereum price was $3236, after hitting $3271 earlier in the day, the rebound narrowed. In the past 24 hours, liquidations amounted to $61,420, with long positions liquidating $32,250 and short positions liquidating $29,170. Its trend is highly correlated with Bitcoin, and slightly weaker relative to Bitcoin, likely maintaining a range of $3150 - $3270 in the short term.

2. Key Support and Resistance: Resistance is concentrated at the $3270 and $3350 - $3400 range, where $3270 is also the daily level 20-day moving average resistance and the upper edge of the previous fluctuation platform. On the support side, $3150 is a key on-chain support that has been tested twice, with important support levels below at $3000, $2800, etc. If it loses $3150, it may further test lower levels.

3. Technical Characteristics: The four-hour candlestick shows a descending flag pattern, with MACD continuously reducing volume and accumulating, while DIF and DEA forming a death cross at high levels, indicating a short-term bearish trend. After breaking the Bollinger Band median, a pressure level of $3230 was formed; the daily MACD maintains a golden cross state, and the EMA trend indicator is contracting, showing that a short-term pullback is normal, with limited downside space, and the hourly structure has not yet broken, being in a small adjustment phase.

4. Influencing Factors: The market is waiting for the evening speech from the senior officials of the Federal Reserve, as the policy direction released will affect the market trend. Previously, the Federal Reserve's "dove with a hawk" interest rate cut signal caused Ethereum to drop from $3440 to $3140.

On December 12, 2025, the price of Bitcoin showed a fluctuating correction during the afternoon, oscillating around $90,850. This followed a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" rally and subsequent pullback due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. Currently, there is intense competition between bulls and bears, with the specific analysis as follows:

1. Price and Market Sentiment: The afternoon Bitcoin price significantly retreated from the previous day's high, briefly touching $94,000 before quickly dropping. This morning it fell below the $90,000 mark, with a slight rebound in the afternoon. The market sentiment index indicates fear, with a rise in risk aversion; Standard Chartered has lowered its year-end target price to $100,000, and the inflow of ETF funds has slowed, further intensifying cautious market sentiment.

2. Key Technical Levels: In terms of support levels, the first support is at $91,000 (yesterday's low), with the core support range between $88,000 and $89,000 (previously high trading volume zone); resistance levels are concentrated in the $93,000 - $94,000 range, which is also the key resistance area for intraday rebounds. The 4-hour chart shows a MACD death cross, indicating a weak short-term trend, but overall still within an upward channel.

3. Future Trend Prediction: If the core support at $88,000 - $89,000 can be maintained, there is a high probability of another attempt to challenge the $93,000 - $94,000 resistance range; if this support range is broken, it might deeply retrace to $85,000 or even lower. In the short term, the market is likely to maintain high volatility oscillations, and the policy direction released during speeches by Federal Reserve executives in the evening may become the key variable to break the current oscillation pattern.

On the evening of December 11, 2025, Ethereum showed weak oscillation under the influence of the Federal Reserve's 'hawkish interest rate cut'. After a rapid pullback from a previous high, it is currently struggling around the $3260 - $3280 range. The specific market analysis is as follows:

1. Price Trends and Market Sentiment: In the early hours today, Ethereum surged to the $3440 - $3450 range alongside Bitcoin, but subsequently, due to market profit-taking and concerns over policy tightening, the price continued to decline, briefly dropping below $3300 in the morning and stabilizing around $3280 in the evening. Currently, the market fear and greed index stands at 29, indicating a state of 'fear'. In the last 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across all contracts exceeded $300 million, and in a dual-kill scenario for long and short positions, investors are showing strong risk-averse sentiment.

2. Key Price Levels and Technical Analysis: On the support side, it is crucial to pay attention to the area around $3200, which is the 50-day moving average and a previous zone of heavy trading. If this support fails, the next target will be the core region of $3050 - $3100. On the resistance side, $3300 has transformed from support to strong resistance, with a more critical resistance above $3400. From a technical standpoint, the daily rebound structure has been damaged, re-entering a downward mode following Bitcoin's movements. The MACD indicator shows a contraction in volume, and the RSI indicator has retreated towards the overbought zone, indicating that short-term adjustment demand still exists.

3. Future Market Expectations: In the short term, it is highly likely to continue oscillating within a range, with the need to observe the effectiveness of the $3300 support and changes in trading volume. If trading volume shrinks, it may indicate reduced selling pressure. However, Ethereum's exchange reserves are at a multi-year low, and the structural supply tightening caused by staking and locking may show stronger resilience compared to other cryptocurrencies in subsequent oscillations. If it can stabilize above $3400 again, it is expected to make an attempt toward the trend top of $3515.