币姥爷

1、《牛市杀器：资金费率套利介绍》

2、《12月10日与6日暴跌复盘：不容忽视的资金费率及潜在机会》

3、《市场出现一致性看空》

4、《408暴跌之后，币圈是否已严重错杀？》

5、《币姥爷的加密货币交易思维方式》

6、《WLFI套利复盘》

2026年2月19日
The market hasn't been particularly special these past few days, with Ethereum still oscillating around 2000. The market during the Spring Festival hasn't shown much fluctuation, which is understandable, as it is a major holiday and business people are also taking a break. According to previous predictions, there should be a small market movement coming up, starting with a rebound, which is quite logical.
Due to the market not being very good, there hasn't been much conversation about cryptocurrencies during the New Year celebrations. There are some discussions about stocks, but even with such a good market for the major A-shares last year, there are still people losing money in stock trading. In investing in this market, people often tend to overestimate their abilities while ignoring the power of trends.

February 15, 2026
I took a look at the US stock market, which has recently experienced a daily level pullback, but overall, there hasn't been a severe collapse trend as people are saying it is going to crash. The US stock market has always been at a high level; after pullbacks, it gradually reaches new highs, so the 'collapse theory' has never stopped, as if they can profit from the stock market's plummet.
Similar to this is the 'death theory' of Bitcoin, with mainstream media reporting its death hundreds of times, each time with great seriousness, as if BTC is about to go to zero. Of course, for Bitcoin, it has repeatedly refreshed its all-time high amidst these negative reports.

February 14, 2026
The market has rebounded a bit. This is how this situation works, as it is basically going through a stage of bottoming. However, the daily level of the second bottom test has not been officially completed, so it is unlikely to rise immediately. As for whether the 60,000 large pancake is the support at this bottom, it is still too early to judge.
According to historical patterns, a 60,000 large pancake is basically not the lowest point of this round of bear market, as time does not stand on the side of the bulls. There is still a bottoming process that will last at least another six months, and the probability of continuing to decline is very high. After all, for a bear market, there is a lack of liquidity, and previous risks will be concentrated. Once there is a bigger explosion, it will trigger a new round of decline.

February 13, 2026
The overall market is still in a state of fluctuation with some slight declines. The daily chart's second bottom test has not been completed yet. Theoretically, we still need to wait for another confirmation of support strength before the market has a chance to experience a rebound. However, even if there is a bullish trend, it can only be limited to a rebound rather than a reversal; therefore, expectations for the first half of this year are definitely very low.
The recent market trends are actually quite dull. I noticed that a couple of days ago, UNI suddenly surged due to some positive investment news, but it only resulted in a V-shaped pullback, indicating that the market has very little confidence in the current cryptocurrency space. Look at the altcoins launched by Binance in the past two years; how many can you name? To put it bluntly, they are just tools for the market makers to harvest profits. It's not even as good as the previous DeFi Summer, when at least it gave some opportunities to the retail investors in the secondary market.

February 11, 2026
The market is currently declining, and it seems to be undergoing a second bottom test. Given this situation, it is less likely to break down directly, as the bearish force is not particularly strong based on the decline. However, there is bad news: funds from altcoins are still fleeing. I noticed that some coins are still dropping, seemingly without a bottom; the decline in a bear market is always beyond imagination.
For believers, the challenge of a bear market's decline to human nature is always immense. However, objectively speaking, the long-term trend of cryptocurrencies is an industry that rewards believers. I am one of the beneficiaries, having a relatively persistent belief in cryptocurrency, and having gone through several bear markets, I do not panic too much and can truly hold on.

February 10, 2026
In the past few days at home, I had a small realization. The snacks that cost 1 yuan when I was a child have now increased to 8-10 yuan. It's been about 20 years, which means that over the past 20 years, the basic prices have risen by 8-10 times. Although it's not very rigorous and can't accurately quantify the multiple of price increases, the macro sense is likely similar for everyone; the level of price increases is much more exaggerated than wage increases.
For ordinary people, after so many years, there are not many ways to resist inflation. Buying a house is one, especially more than a decade ago when you could get a good house for tens of thousands or over a hundred thousand, which basically outpaced inflation. However, in recent years, that is no longer an option. Buying gold can barely be considered one; the reason I say barely is that the channels for ordinary people to buy gold are mainly through spot jewelry, which incurs high fees or labor costs, and no one would allocate most of their funds to buy gold.

February 9, 2026
The market may have reached a temporary bottom, which is 60,000 for Bitcoin and 1,800 for Ethereum, possibly becoming important support levels for the market in the next month or two. This judgment is based not only on the recent sharp decline in the market but also on significant supporting logic. The recent sharp drop in Ethereum coincided with Yi Lihua's fund being forced to reduce leverage and liquidate positions, which means that a well-known entity sold hundreds of millions of Ethereum, definitely leading to panic selling from many traders. This was the direct cause of Ethereum's decline of over thirty percent in just a few days.
Additionally, according to rumors, the main investor of Yi Lihua's fund this time is a certain large holder of Bitcoin. Reliable information suggests that this holder went to prison more than a decade ago and, after being released, became financially independent by passively holding Bitcoin. However, he was not content with just holding Bitcoin passively and started to leverage Ethereum, ultimately being forced to sell Bitcoin to cover his positions.

February 7, 2026
Today I have some matters to attend to. I was initially planning to take a day off, but the rebound of the market is worth mentioning, so I’ll briefly talk about it now. This rebound is actually within expectations; it’s just that it dropped to this level so quickly, which is clearly an overcorrection. In a situation of severe liquidity shortage, no one can say when the market will hit the bottom. However, as I said, as long as you are sure that the current price is undervalued, then boldly buy in. At worst, prepare for a long-term hold.
Whether to buy or not, and whether you can hold it, is crucial for everyone to understand: will the main players abandon the market? For Bitcoin, after more than a decade, it has faced various crises and has withstood the test of vitality. Moreover, the difficulty and threshold for mining are very high now, and if you buy, the price is certainly expensive. Do you think the large holders of Bitcoin will abandon their positions? As for Ethereum, the second largest by market capitalization, it carries hundreds of billions of funds on-chain. Do you think the main players will abandon it? Similarly, when you buy other coins, ask yourself this question: if you believe the main players won’t easily give up, then when the price plummets, just hold firm.

February 6, 2026
Bankruptcy of 810 million USD, Bitcoin dipped to a low of 60,000, Ethereum fell below 1,800 USD. Brothers, this is what a real bear market looks like. The four-year cycle is the soul of the cryptocurrency world, and behind this four-year cycle is the halving mechanism of Bitcoin at work. In a sense, this is also a representation of Bitcoin's value, which is that regardless of external market conditions, whether it’s Wall Street capital or the U.S. government's strategic reserves, Bitcoin will fall when it needs to! Conversely, Bitcoin will rise when it needs to rise! However, according to historical patterns, Bitcoin's bull and bear declines can be very significant, previously falling by 70-80%, but it has now fallen below 50%. Normally, as liquidity and market capitalization gradually increase, volatility will decrease, meaning it could drop by 60-70%, which corresponds to a bottom price of around 40,000 to 50,000.

February 5, 2026
70,000, the speed of decline in the bear market is always beyond imagination. In just two days, Bitcoin dropped from 80,000 to 70,000. Half a month ago, Bitcoin was still fluctuating above 90,000. If it falls below 70,000, it means that Bitcoin has officially halved from its relative high. In terms of decline, the so-called 'eternal bull market' has once again become a joke. As for how much the maximum decline in this round of Bitcoin will reach, it is currently unpredictable. However, based on past historical trends, the maximum decline will certainly exceed 50%, which also means that the final bottom range for Bitcoin will be around 50,000 to 60,000 USD.
It's not that it will definitely arrive soon, because judging by past experiences, the next few months will still be a volatile downturn, and the time when it hits the lowest point will likely be a few months later. Therefore, in the next 1-2 months, I still lean towards a slight rebound. However, no matter what, the bear market has indeed arrived, and since the trend of the bear market has been completely confirmed, the general direction is certainly downward. Moreover, an important point is that without a few months of volatile market, meaning the main force has not accumulated enough chips, it is impossible to start a major upward wave.

February 4, 2026
Ethereum hit a new low last night, with the lowest point reaching 2100 USD. I suddenly thought about the period from September to October when I saw Ethereum about to break 5000. At that time, I was full of confidence and planned to gradually reduce my holdings before reaching 10000, but the reality was a harsh slap in the face, as it didn't even touch 5000 USD. Now, the price of Ethereum has already fallen below the halving line, with the maximum decline approaching 60%, and Bitcoin's maximum decline has also exceeded 30%. It's clear that the four-year cycle law is playing out again. The only good news is that with each new bull and bear cycle, the maximum decline is getting smaller.