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'Cheap yen' is the hidden liquidity driver for Bitcoin?
Many Bitcoin $BTC traders usually pay attention to the Federal Reserve System (Fed).
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) plays a very important role in the cryptocurrency market. This is due to Japan's unique role in global liquidity. When this liquidity tightens, the price of Bitcoin usually drops significantly.
'Cheap yen' is the hidden liquidity driver for Bitcoin.
For decades, Japan has maintained near-zero or negative interest rates. This has made the yen one of the cheapest currencies for global borrowing.
The concept of 'yen carry trade'. Large institutions such as hedge funds, banks, asset management companies, and proprietary trading firms typically borrow yen through the Bank of Japan, the foreign exchange swap market, and short-term financing channels, converting the yen into dollars or euros. This money is then invested in higher-yielding assets. These assets may include stocks, credit markets, emerging markets, and an increasing number of crypto assets.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) plays a very important role in the cryptocurrency market. This is due to Japan's unique role in global liquidity. When this liquidity tightens, the price of Bitcoin usually drops significantly.
'Cheap yen' is the hidden liquidity driver for Bitcoin.
For decades, Japan has maintained near-zero or negative interest rates. This has made the yen one of the cheapest currencies for global borrowing.
The concept of 'yen carry trade'. Large institutions such as hedge funds, banks, asset management companies, and proprietary trading firms typically borrow yen through the Bank of Japan, the foreign exchange swap market, and short-term financing channels, converting the yen into dollars or euros. This money is then invested in higher-yielding assets. These assets may include stocks, credit markets, emerging markets, and an increasing number of crypto assets.
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Mu Bai: 12.16 Bitcoin BTC Ethereum ETH Today's Latest Trend Forecast Analysis and Operational Strategy
Market 'risk-off' sentiment is rising, with traders shifting funds to safer assets. Although the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates last week, it failed to effectively boost the market. As year-end approaches, market liquidity is dwindling, which can amplify price volatility. Reports indicate that a large number of mining machines (estimated to exceed 400,000) in Xinjiang, China, have been shut down, leading to a decrease in overall network computing power and raising concerns about short-term selling pressure.
Institutional Perspectives
For Bitcoin<u-c-22/>:
Key Resistance: $92,500 and $94,253 are strong resistance areas above and key positions of the downtrend line. Only a breakthrough of this area could reverse the short-term downtrend.
Institutional Perspectives
For Bitcoin<u-c-22/>:
Key Resistance: $92,500 and $94,253 are strong resistance areas above and key positions of the downtrend line. Only a breakthrough of this area could reverse the short-term downtrend.
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Most of the market thinks it will fall in advance, but in fact, the smart ones have already gone long during the process of the pullback. The morning live broadcast has already called for a long position. I don't know how many people are afraid of the high $BNB
The impact of Japan's interest rate hike on the cryptocurrency market and retail investor strategies has garnered widespread attention regarding the expected shifts post-rate hike. If the negative sentiment diminishes and transforms into a positive outlook, it may provide momentum for Bitcoin to break through previous highs. For retail investors, holding Bitcoin long-term in a volatile market environment is no easy task, as frequent trading and emotional decision-making often lead to a loss of assets.
The investment outcomes for retail investors are typically influenced by multiple factors and are not solely determined by individual actions or market opinion leaders. In such an environment, a sustainable strategy may involve: allocating the majority of funds (e.g., over 90%) to regular, fixed-amount investments in Bitcoin, avoiding frequent buying and selling due to short-term fluctuations, while also appropriately allocating a portion to Ethereum. Additionally, a small amount of funds (no more than 10%) could be used to experiment with altcoin trading, but its positioning should be clear—altcoins are better suited for tactical allocations, aimed at achieving excess returns before converting to core assets like Bitcoin or Ethereum, rather than holding long-term.
In investing, discipline is more important than prediction. Maintaining core assets, moderately participating in market hotspots, and gradually accumulating Bitcoin positions may be a viable path for retail investors to maintain holdings and achieve long-term growth in a volatile market.
{future}(BTCUSDT)
The investment outcomes for retail investors are typically influenced by multiple factors and are not solely determined by individual actions or market opinion leaders. In such an environment, a sustainable strategy may involve: allocating the majority of funds (e.g., over 90%) to regular, fixed-amount investments in Bitcoin, avoiding frequent buying and selling due to short-term fluctuations, while also appropriately allocating a portion to Ethereum. Additionally, a small amount of funds (no more than 10%) could be used to experiment with altcoin trading, but its positioning should be clear—altcoins are better suited for tactical allocations, aimed at achieving excess returns before converting to core assets like Bitcoin or Ethereum, rather than holding long-term.
In investing, discipline is more important than prediction. Maintaining core assets, moderately participating in market hotspots, and gradually accumulating Bitcoin positions may be a viable path for retail investors to maintain holdings and achieve long-term growth in a volatile market.
{future}(BTCUSDT)
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The impact of Japan's interest rate hike on the cryptocurrency market and retail investor strategies has garnered widespread attention regarding the expected shifts post-rate hike. If the negative sentiment diminishes and transforms into a positive outlook, it may provide momentum for Bitcoin to break through previous highs. For retail investors, holding Bitcoin long-term in a volatile market environment is no easy task, as frequent trading and emotional decision-making often lead to a loss of assets.
The investment outcomes for retail investors are typically influenced by multiple factors and are not solely determined by individual actions or market opinion leaders. In such an environment, a sustainable strategy may involve: allocating the majority of funds (e.g., over 90%) to regular, fixed-amount investments in Bitcoin, avoiding frequent buying and selling due to short-term fluctuations, while also appropriately allocating a portion to Ethereum. Additionally, a small amount of funds (no more than 10%) could be used to experiment with altcoin trading, but its positioning should be clear—altcoins are better suited for tactical allocations, aimed at achieving excess returns before converting to core assets like Bitcoin or Ethereum, rather than holding long-term.
In investing, discipline is more important than prediction. Maintaining core assets, moderately participating in market hotspots, and gradually accumulating Bitcoin positions may be a viable path for retail investors to maintain holdings and achieve long-term growth in a volatile market.
The investment outcomes for retail investors are typically influenced by multiple factors and are not solely determined by individual actions or market opinion leaders. In such an environment, a sustainable strategy may involve: allocating the majority of funds (e.g., over 90%) to regular, fixed-amount investments in Bitcoin, avoiding frequent buying and selling due to short-term fluctuations, while also appropriately allocating a portion to Ethereum. Additionally, a small amount of funds (no more than 10%) could be used to experiment with altcoin trading, but its positioning should be clear—altcoins are better suited for tactical allocations, aimed at achieving excess returns before converting to core assets like Bitcoin or Ethereum, rather than holding long-term.
In investing, discipline is more important than prediction. Maintaining core assets, moderately participating in market hotspots, and gradually accumulating Bitcoin positions may be a viable path for retail investors to maintain holdings and achieve long-term growth in a volatile market.
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Mu Bai: 12.13 Bitcoin BTC Ethereum ETH Today's Latest Trend Forecast Analysis and Trading Strategy
In summary, the current market is at a critical juncture of high volatility, where a directional choice is imminent. Whether Bitcoin challenges $100,000 or Ethereum tests $3,600, both need to effectively break through their respective strong resistance zones first. The strong performance of mainstream stock indices (such as the S&P 500) and gold may bring a positive capital rotation effect to the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin$BTC Technical Analysis:
Within the 'December opening range', waiting for a breakout. It is believed that a macro top may have formed, currently in a larger-level retracement phase. The composite signal indicates 'strong buy', but some indicators show overbought conditions: RSI at 57.569 (neutral to slightly bullish), stochastic indicator as high as 99.639 (overbought). Resistance: 92,000 - 94,236, breakthrough then 96,000-100,000. Support: 89,000; 85,929 - 86,291; if lost, look down to 83,712.
Bitcoin$BTC Technical Analysis:
Within the 'December opening range', waiting for a breakout. It is believed that a macro top may have formed, currently in a larger-level retracement phase. The composite signal indicates 'strong buy', but some indicators show overbought conditions: RSI at 57.569 (neutral to slightly bullish), stochastic indicator as high as 99.639 (overbought). Resistance: 92,000 - 94,236, breakthrough then 96,000-100,000. Support: 89,000; 85,929 - 86,291; if lost, look down to 83,712.
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Mu Bai: 12.13 Bitcoin BTC Ethereum ETH today's latest trend prediction analysis and operational strategy
Bitcoin and Ethereum are both in a critical 'bull-bear battleground.' Bitcoin is being suppressed by a downward trendline that began at the October high, with the market waiting to see if it will clearly break upward through the trendline or downward through the recent ascending channel. Although the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut on December 11, the event did not have a lasting unilateral impact on cryptocurrency prices as the market had already priced in this expectation. Some analysts point out that the inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs has been relatively flat recently, and the market lacks strong incremental capital drivers.
Bitcoin$BTC technical outlook:
Bitcoin$BTC technical outlook:
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Mu Bai: 12.12 Bitcoin BTC Ethereum ETH today's latest trend prediction analysis and operational strategy
On December 11, it was announced that the interest rate would be cut by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, and there are plans to purchase government bonds to inject liquidity into the market. Theoretically, this is positive news, but the impact has been 'priced in' in advance, and internal policy differences have muted the response, leading to a lackluster or even negative market reaction. The main holders have shifted from retail investors/whales to institutions like ETFs and listed companies, which compresses short-term volatility but creates new 'tail risks' (for example, concentrated redemptions by institutions may trigger greater selling pressure).
Bitcoin technical analysis:
The daily chart forms a 'bear flag' pattern. If it breaks below $90,000, the theoretical target could drop to $67,000. The short-term direction depends on the support at $88K-$89K: if it holds, it may bounce back to $94,000; if it breaks, it may drop to $85,000.
Bitcoin technical analysis:
The daily chart forms a 'bear flag' pattern. If it breaks below $90,000, the theoretical target could drop to $67,000. The short-term direction depends on the support at $88K-$89K: if it holds, it may bounce back to $94,000; if it breaks, it may drop to $85,000.
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Mu Bai: Latest trend prediction and operational strategy for Bitcoin BTC and Ethereum ETH on 12.11
Optimistic views are largely based on macro expectations of a possible shift by the Federal Reserve towards easing, while pessimistic views focus more on current weak capital inflows and the decline linked to tech stocks, among other micro facts. Both bullish and bearish technical patterns exist on the chart, and on-chain data shows that the selling pressure from large holders (whales) has recently eased, which increases uncertainty in the short-term direction. The definition of 'short-term' varies (such as a few days, weeks, or quarters), leading to differing conclusions. Personally, I still see the market trending downward, benefiting from Japan's interest rate hike and the adverse factors from the Israel-Venezuela incident.
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At 3 AM tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will announce the December interest rate decision.
Good afternoon!
At 3 AM tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will announce the December interest rate decision.
The current probability of a rate cut is 87.6%, and the probability of no cut is 12.4%.
The market has now fully priced in the expectations of a rate cut; barring any surprises, it is certain that there will be a cut tonight.
The key point now is the timing of Powell's speech after the decision, with special attention needed on the 'dot plot' for the 2026 interest rate path.
If, I mean just in case, there is that 12% probability of no rate cut, and it happens, then tomorrow morning one could wake up to a waterfall face wash.
Additionally, let’s pay attention to the data of long-term holders holding for more than a year. Currently, as prices rise, long-term holders are still insisting on selling, which aligns with the historical situation: distributing during rises and accumulating during declines. We are still in a distribution cycle, and the historical data of whales shows that there were both correct and incorrect buys, while long-term holders have hardly missed any rounds of bulls and bears.
At 3 AM tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will announce the December interest rate decision.
The current probability of a rate cut is 87.6%, and the probability of no cut is 12.4%.
The market has now fully priced in the expectations of a rate cut; barring any surprises, it is certain that there will be a cut tonight.
The key point now is the timing of Powell's speech after the decision, with special attention needed on the 'dot plot' for the 2026 interest rate path.
If, I mean just in case, there is that 12% probability of no rate cut, and it happens, then tomorrow morning one could wake up to a waterfall face wash.
Additionally, let’s pay attention to the data of long-term holders holding for more than a year. Currently, as prices rise, long-term holders are still insisting on selling, which aligns with the historical situation: distributing during rises and accumulating during declines. We are still in a distribution cycle, and the historical data of whales shows that there were both correct and incorrect buys, while long-term holders have hardly missed any rounds of bulls and bears.
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Mu Bai: 12.9 Bitcoin BTC Ethereum ETH today's latest trend prediction analysis and trading strategy
On the evening of December 9th, Beijing time, the market will focus on the Federal Reserve's (FOMC) interest rate decision. Regardless of whether the result meets expectations, it may trigger significant volatility. The only core focus today is the Federal Reserve's decision. All price fluctuations and capital behaviors center around this. Other news (such as technical proposals, supply data) belong to the long-term narrative and should not be used as direct basis for today’s short-term trading.
Bitcoin technical analysis:
The support area of Bitcoin at 86,000-87,000 is facing a test, as the outflow of funds from ETFs and macro uncertainty have increased the risk of a breakdown.
Bitcoin technical analysis:
The support area of Bitcoin at 86,000-87,000 is facing a test, as the outflow of funds from ETFs and macro uncertainty have increased the risk of a breakdown.
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Mu Bai: 12.8 Bitcoin BTC Ethereum ETH today's latest trend prediction analysis and operational strategy
Recent events to pay attention to include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December, which may trigger market volatility. The market has overreacted to the 'distant threat' while ignoring recent positive signals, making the possibility of a significant market rise greater than a further crash. A report from CryptoQuant indicates that the total supply of stablecoins has reached an all-time high, which usually means strong underlying purchasing power in the market and may become a key driver for the next price surge.
Bitcoin$BTC technical analysis:
The daily chart forms a rising wedge, typically indicating weakened momentum and facing a direction choice. The hourly chart shows a descending channel: the current price is rebounding from the lower boundary of the channel. Recent trading volume is sluggish, and the market is in a consolidation phase. Key liquidity areas are concentrated around support at 87000-88000 and resistance near 90000.
Bitcoin$BTC technical analysis:
The daily chart forms a rising wedge, typically indicating weakened momentum and facing a direction choice. The hourly chart shows a descending channel: the current price is rebounding from the lower boundary of the channel. Recent trading volume is sluggish, and the market is in a consolidation phase. Key liquidity areas are concentrated around support at 87000-88000 and resistance near 90000.
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Mu Bai: 12.7 Bitcoin BTC and Ethereum ETH latest performance prediction analysis and operational strategy
Bitcoin and Ethereum's performance today, the current market is in a consolidation phase after severe fluctuations, with prices repeatedly at critical positions and unclear short-term direction. The next important focus for the market is the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 10 (expected). Currently, the market has high expectations for interest rate cuts, which could trigger volatility across the entire risk asset market, requiring close attention.
Bitcoin$BTC technical aspects:
General attention to the core fluctuation range of $84,000 - $94,000. A breakthrough at the upper edge may test $100,000; a drop below the lower edge may lead to a deeper exploration of the $78,000 - $80,000 area.
Bitcoin$BTC technical aspects:
General attention to the core fluctuation range of $84,000 - $94,000. A breakthrough at the upper edge may test $100,000; a drop below the lower edge may lead to a deeper exploration of the $78,000 - $80,000 area.
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Mu Bai: 12.6 Bitcoin BTC Ethereum ETH Today's Latest Trend Prediction Analysis and Trading Strategy
A large number of traders are betting that Bitcoin will continue to consolidate in the coming weeks, lacking a clear directional choice. In contrast to the hesitation in the short-term market, some mainstream financial institutions have provided a very optimistic long-term outlook. For example, a report from J.P. Morgan indicates that if valued in line with gold, Bitcoin's 'theoretical price' could reach $170,000. There are market reports suggesting that sovereign wealth funds are buying around $80,000.
Bitcoin $BTC Technical Analysis:
BTC has formed clear resistance around $94,000, and the market structure has turned defensive. The price is currently testing the $90,000 area, which is widely recognized as the 'production cost' and an important psychological level. The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from April to October 2025 (around $85,200) has been tested multiple times and held, forming a mid-term foundation.
Bitcoin $BTC Technical Analysis:
BTC has formed clear resistance around $94,000, and the market structure has turned defensive. The price is currently testing the $90,000 area, which is widely recognized as the 'production cost' and an important psychological level. The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from April to October 2025 (around $85,200) has been tested multiple times and held, forming a mid-term foundation.
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Mu Bai: 12.5 Bitcoin BTC Ethereum ETH Today's Latest Trend Prediction Analysis and Trading Strategy
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are high, with the market anticipating a rate cut at the December meeting. Liquidity is improving, and the U.S. Treasury is conducting large-scale debt buybacks; quantitative tightening is ending. The Ethereum Fusaka upgrade has been activated, enhancing network efficiency and reducing Layer 2 network costs. Predictive markets show that investors' expectation probability for Bitcoin to break $100,000 before the end of the year has dropped from 60% to 24%. External risks, such as soaring Japanese government bond yields and other global macro signals, have triggered risk aversion.
Bitcoin$BTC Technical Analysis:
The current core focus is the key resistance at $93,500. This position is not only the annual opening price but also the previous high points of multiple rebounds. Only a strong breakout with volume beyond this level can effectively reverse the weak trend since mid-April and open up a new round of upward space. Conversely, if it continues to be under pressure, it will remain in the $90,000-$93,500 range, and may even test the $90,000 support again.
Bitcoin$BTC Technical Analysis:
The current core focus is the key resistance at $93,500. This position is not only the annual opening price but also the previous high points of multiple rebounds. Only a strong breakout with volume beyond this level can effectively reverse the weak trend since mid-April and open up a new round of upward space. Conversely, if it continues to be under pressure, it will remain in the $90,000-$93,500 range, and may even test the $90,000 support again.
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Mu Bai: Latest trend prediction analysis and operational strategy for 12.4 Bitcoin BTC and Ethereum ETH today
The chairman of the National Securities Regulatory Commission (SEC) reiterated the establishment of a new regulatory framework that includes 'innovation exemptions' to provide a clearer compliance path for the cryptocurrency industry. Vanguard, the world's second-largest asset management company, announced the opening of its platform for trading cryptocurrency ETFs, which is seen as an important signal to attract institutional funds. The market's expectations for an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have heightened the appeal of risk assets like Bitcoin. The rebound in stock market risk appetite is transmitting to the cryptocurrency market. Analysts point out that the period from now until early February next year is the 'golden window' for the cryptocurrency market.
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Common Tricks in the Cryptocurrency World
Prevent falling for scams$ETH
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Mu Bai: 12.3 Bitcoin BTC Ethereum ETH Today's Latest Trend Prediction Analysis and Trading Strategy
The market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December has significantly increased, which is a key factor in boosting the sentiment of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Before this rise, the cryptocurrency market experienced weeks of sell-offs and substantial deleveraging. Since the peak in October, Bitcoin's market value has lost about 30%, and the scale of market liquidation has been enormous, which has accumulated the momentum for a technical rebound.
Bitcoin technical analysis:
Currently, the rebound faces a key test around $92,350. If it can effectively break through, it may further test higher resistance; if it cannot stabilize, one must be wary of the possibility of revisiting lower support (such as around $83,200).
Bitcoin technical analysis:
Currently, the rebound faces a key test around $92,350. If it can effectively break through, it may further test higher resistance; if it cannot stabilize, one must be wary of the possibility of revisiting lower support (such as around $83,200).
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The reason for tonight's sudden Bitcoin surge
Tonight, there are 5 pieces of real good news, all substantial! Tonight, BTC surged nearly $3000 in 2 hours, this wave is not a bubble, but real good news hitting the market!
1. The three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher collectively, the Nasdaq surged to a new high directly, risk asset sentiment has completely warmed up, and it’s no surprise that the crypto market follows suit.
2. The Bitcoin spot ETF turned to net inflow yesterday, institutions have finally started to buy in real money again!
3. The U.S. listed company Hyperscale Data (AIXI) has just increased its holdings by 38.74 BTC, bringing the total holdings to 421.67 BTC, and the listed company continues to hop on board!
4. Bank of America has recently advised wealth management clients to allocate 1%-4% of their investment portfolios to cryptocurrencies, and Wall Street's traditional giants have finally relented!
1. The three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher collectively, the Nasdaq surged to a new high directly, risk asset sentiment has completely warmed up, and it’s no surprise that the crypto market follows suit.
2. The Bitcoin spot ETF turned to net inflow yesterday, institutions have finally started to buy in real money again!
3. The U.S. listed company Hyperscale Data (AIXI) has just increased its holdings by 38.74 BTC, bringing the total holdings to 421.67 BTC, and the listed company continues to hop on board!
4. Bank of America has recently advised wealth management clients to allocate 1%-4% of their investment portfolios to cryptocurrencies, and Wall Street's traditional giants have finally relented!
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Mu Bai: 12.2 Bitcoin BTC Ethereum ETH today's latest trend prediction analysis and operational strategy
The expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has been delayed, leading to marginal contraction in US dollar liquidity. The Bank of Japan's signals of interest rate hikes have pushed up government bond yields, exacerbating the sell-off in global risk assets. Chinese regulatory authorities have made it clear that activities related to virtual currencies are considered illegal financial activities, and domestic investors face extremely high policy and legal risks when participating in trading.
Bitcoin technical analysis:
Major trend: The correction from the historical high in October (above ~$100,000) has exceeded 31%, and the weekly upward trend has been broken, entering a phase of high-level consolidation or deep adjustment. $80,000 is currently the most important psychological and technical support level; if the daily closing price effectively falls below this level, it will open up greater downside potential. Initial resistance above is at $87,000 (previous low turning into resistance). The daily RSI has fallen into the oversold zone (below 30), but in a downtrend, the RSI may remain in an oversold state for a long time; rebound signals need to be assessed in conjunction with whether the price can hold above support.
Bitcoin technical analysis:
Major trend: The correction from the historical high in October (above ~$100,000) has exceeded 31%, and the weekly upward trend has been broken, entering a phase of high-level consolidation or deep adjustment. $80,000 is currently the most important psychological and technical support level; if the daily closing price effectively falls below this level, it will open up greater downside potential. Initial resistance above is at $87,000 (previous low turning into resistance). The daily RSI has fallen into the oversold zone (below 30), but in a downtrend, the RSI may remain in an oversold state for a long time; rebound signals need to be assessed in conjunction with whether the price can hold above support.
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