TheBlock101

In just under 36 hours, the global precious metals market has experienced one of the most severe corrections in many years. Gold plummeted from around 5,600 USD to around 4,700 USD. Silver fell freely from 121 USD to nearly 77 USD. Platinum and palladium also did not escape a similar fate.

Catalyst: Personnel announcement from the White House
The direct cause of this crash did not stem from economic data or geopolitical crises, but arose from a pivotal political announcement. This morning, President Donald Trump officially announced Kevin Warsh as the chosen candidate for the position of Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), replacing Jerome Powell when the current term ends in May.

1. Too much leverage & margin calls - Traders went crazy with high leverage 50x–100x in futures. A small dump turned into forced selling, which started a chain of liquidations wiping out trillions in paper gains.

2).Profit taking after a crazy rally - Gold is up 160% and Silver is up nearly 380% in the last 2 years. So people are locking in massive profits during a parabolic rally.

3. Microsoft - MSFT dropped 11% today on weak cloud/AI growth numbers + Morgan Stanley removing it from top picks. This pulled the Nasdaq and S&P 500 lower.

4. Metals were now in bubble territory - Gold and silver were at their most overbought levels ever in history. So the market did a quick flush to shake out the weak hands.

5. No real news or big event - This crash was just pure post-unwinding. There is no major policy change or war event triggering it.

Silver just hit $120, up 450% in the last 2 years, adding over $6 trillion to its market cap and became the BEST performing assets in the world.

The main reason for this INSANE rally is supply chain + paper market problem happening at the same time.

Here’s what’s actually driving it:

1. THE MARKET HAS BEEN IN A REAL SUPPLY DEFICIT FOR YEARS

This is not a one month shortage.Over the last 5 years, the world has used more silver than it produced.
Total deficit: 678 million ounces.

That is almost one full year of global mine production missing from the system. So silver was already in shortage before the price started moving fast.

2. CHINA TURNED SILVER INTO A STRATEGIC EXPORT

China does not only mine silver. China controls a large part of the world’s refined silver supply. Recently, China tightened exports using licensing and restrictions. This means fewer silver bars are allowed to leave the country.

That directly reduces the amount of silver available for the rest of the world.

You can already see this in prices. Shanghai silver is trading near $127, much higher than global markets.
That premium exists because physical silver inside China is becoming harder to get.

When China slows exports:
• Other countries have to fight harder for limited supply
• Physical premiums rise quickly
• Factories pay higher prices to avoid production delays

3. INDUSTRIAL DEMAND IS GROWING RAPIDLY

Silver is not only a store of value. It is a critical industrial metal. Two major demand drivers are:

A) Solar demand

Solar panels need silver to conduct electricity inside each panel. Every panel uses silver in its internal wiring. As more countries build solar power plants, silver demand rises. Global solar silver demand is expected to grow from about. 200 million ounces per year to around 450 million ounces per year by 2030.

That alone can consume a very large part of global supply.

B) Data centers, AI, and electrification

More data centers are being built. Power grids are being upgraded. Electronics production is increasing. Silver is used because it carries electricity better than any other metal. In high performance systems, it cannot be easily replaced.

So demand keeps rising while supply is already tight.

4. THE PAPER MARKET IS WAY BIGGER THAN THE REAL METAL

Most silver trading happens through paper contracts, not real metal. Paper to physical leverage is estimated 350:1. That means for every 1 real ounce, there can be 350+ oz in paper claims. This only works as long as nobody asks for physical delivery.

But when physical delivery increases:
• Shorts cannot find metal
• They must buy contracts back
• Price moves up fast
• More shorts are forced to exit

That creates a forced buying loop.

5. LEASE RATES AND BACKWARDATION SHOWED PHYSICAL STRESS

A) Lease rates

Lease rates are the cost to borrow physical silver. Normally, lease rates are close to zero. They spiked close to 39% annualized recently. That means physical silver became extremely difficult to borrow.

B) Backwardation

Backwardation means spot prices are higher than futures prices. This happens when buyers want metal immediately, not later. Silver backwardation reached levels last seen around 1980 during some periods.
That shows severe physical shortage.

6. REFINING BOTTLENECKS MADE IT WORSE

About 9.7% of global refining capacity went offline in late 2025. Even when silver existed, it could not be processed fast enough into usable form.

That tightened supply further.

7. ETFs REMOVED EVEN MORE METAL FROM CIRCULATION

ETFs buy real silver bars and store them. Over 95 million ounces flowed into silver ETFs in early 2025 alone. That metal is no longer available for industry or delivery.

8. SILVER WAS CLASSIFIED AS A STRATEGIC MATERIAL

In August 2025, the U.S. added silver to its Critical Minerals List. This officially changed silver from a normal commodity into a strategic resource.

9. WHY SILVER MOVES FASTER THAN GOLD

Gold markets are large and deep. Silver markets are smaller and thinner. When demand rises, silver prices move much faster. Silver did not go parabolic for one reason.

It moved because of:
• Multi-year supply deficits
• China tightening refined exports
• Rising industrial demand
• Huge paper leverage with limited physical supply
• Lease rate spikes
• Backwardation
• London inventory stress
• Refinery shutdowns
• ETF absorption
• Strategic classification

The market stopped being driven by paper prices.
It started being driven by physical availability.

Do you understand how crazy that is?

To put that in perspective, we just saw wealth equivalent to the combined GDP of the UK and France evaporate in less time than it takes to order pizza.

This doesn’t even feel real.

A move of this magnitude, in such a compressed timeframe, is far beyond a standard "6-sigma" event.

It’s off the charts historically…

Why are we seeing this?

Extreme events like this almost always come from the market’s structure: instantaneous de-leveraging, cascading margin calls, collateral evaporation, and forced selling.

When precious metals, "safe haven" assets, vaporize trillions in minutes, they’re telling you, explicitly, that we are living through a real paradigm shift.

$BTC after adjusting from 98k until now has had pullback movements back within the range of 86k-91k. Especially, the prolonged sideways movements around 87k–89k have continuously "refreshed" new liquidity. And then the price broke through 89k forming a higher low + a clear up structure on the low timeframe. Classic liquidity grab + structure flip.

Currently, the price is still being held extremely firmly. The possibility of continuing to rise is still high. Looking at the heatmap, it is clear: Liquid Shorts have continuously been wiped out, which is the main "fuel" helping BTC to pullback and then bounce back. This is not a coincidence.

Tether is no longer just the company behind the largest stablecoin in the market. Behind the scenes, they are quietly accumulating physical gold and building a long-term strategy around gold, betting on the scenario where trust in fiat currency, especially the USD, continues to weaken.
In an interview with Bloomberg, CEO Paolo Ardoino stated that as geopolitical tensions escalate and fiat loses credibility, gold remains the most neutral and safest asset. Therefore, Tether is using a large portion of the profits from stablecoin to buy physical gold.

The Bitcoin to gold ratio is entering a very sensitive area where in the past it has often marked significant reversals.
On average, each BTC/GOLD down cycle lasts about 14 months. And currently, we are exactly 14 months into this phase. This is not a random number.


After that period, the market often witnesses strong mean reversion. Selling pressure dwindles, compression builds up, and when the reversal rate bounces back, Bitcoin $BTC often significantly outperforms gold.

This week is forming one of the most dangerous macro setups in many months. In the next 72 hours, the market will have to absorb 6 major events. With crypto, this is the stage where just one variable deviating from expectations can cause everything to change very quickly.
Below is what is waiting ahead.
Trump will speak today at 4 PM (ET)
He is expected to talk about the U.S. economy and energy prices. If Trump calls for lower energy prices, the inflation narrative will be immediately affected, and the market will certainly not stay still.

What the market is about to experience might make many feel like they are entering the strongest growth cycle ever. The signals are slowly aligning, and if this scenario unfolds as expected, capital will return at a very rapid pace.
In that painting, Bitcoin $BTC is expected to break its historical peak first, followed by Ethereum $ETH . When the two leading assets complete their breakout phase, billions of USD could start flowing strongly into the mid-cap and low-cap group, leading to a widespread price surge. Altcoins and memecoins, according to the familiar pattern of previous cycles, have the potential to see increases of 10x to 100x.

As of January 1, 2026, Vietnam officially enters the list of countries that recognize the legality of digital assets, marking an important milestone in the process of completing the legal framework for the digital economy. With this move, Vietnam becomes the 46th country in the world to recognize digital assets, opening a new phase of development for the domestic crypto market, shifting from a 'gray area' state to a clearly regulated and supervised model.

River $RIVER ran from $3 to $80 since early January, a clean 27x that caught most of the market off guard.

If you missed it, here’s a concise breakdown of what actually pushed River into its latest moon leg.
At the core, this rally is driven by three things: institutional backing, a differentiated chain abstraction stablecoin model, and an airdrop design that rewards patience instead of fast selling.
1. River closed a $12M strategic round from Tron DAO, Justin Sun, Maelstrom Fund (Arthur Hayes), Spartan Group, plus Nasdaq-listed companies and institutions.

2. River is a chain abstraction stablecoin system that connects assets to opportunities across chains. Their stablecoin (satUSD) works without bridges, deposit on one chain, use on another.
The most interesting part, though, is the airdrop mechanics.
River rewards users for waiting. You earn River Points, which can later be converted into $RIVER . The longer you hold before converting, the more tokens you receive. After Day 90, the multiplier doubles, directly discouraging early exits.
Right now, River has processed $6B in trading volume, ranks #4 globally, and is #1 trending on both Binance and CoinGecko.
There’s also a visible arbitrage gap between River Points and $RIVER, highlighted in the latest Alea Research report.
NFA. DYOR.

When looking at the long-term time frame, especially the monthly chart, there is a pattern that consistently helps identify the major trend of Bitcoin: the 4-year cycle. This is a long-term indicator that has been monitored over the years and to this day, it has never deviated in the history of BTC's movements.
How does the 4-year cycle of Bitcoin operate?

Since 2013, Bitcoin has gone through 3 complete market cycles, each cycle repeating the same basic structure:

Thị trường tiền mã hóa toàn cầu đã trải qua một đợt điều chỉnh mạnh khi những lo ngại xoay quanh khả năng chính phủ Mỹ đóng cửa trở lại ngày càng gia tăng. Chỉ trong vòng vài giờ cuối tuần qua, khoảng 100 tỷ USD vốn hóa đã bị “thổi bay” khỏi thị trường crypto, phản ánh tâm lý phòng thủ rõ rệt của nhà đầu tư trước các rủi ro chính trị và địa chính trị đang chồng chất.
Nguyên nhân trực tiếp của đợt bán tháo đến từ căng thẳng tại Thượng viện Mỹ, khi các Thượng nghị sĩ Đảng Dân chủ tuyên bố sẽ chặn dự luật cấp ngân sách nếu dự luật này bao gồm kinh phí cho Bộ An ninh Nội địa (DHS). Động thái này làm dấy lên nguy cơ chính phủ Mỹ có thể rơi vào tình trạng đóng cửa một phần nếu các bên không đạt được thỏa thuận trước thời hạn cuối tháng 1. Trong bối cảnh đó, thị trường tài chính nói chung và crypto nói riêng nhanh chóng phản ứng tiêu cực trước kịch bản bất ổn kéo dài.

1️⃣ President Trump is pressuring Canada, Iran

- Threatening to impose a 100% tax on Canada (https://t.me/Fivemincryptoann/12444) if the country reaches a trade agreement with China.
- The aircraft carrier strike group USS Abraham Lincoln has arrived in the Middle East. On Polymarket, the probability of the U.S. attacking Iran before 1/31 is only 18%, but it rises to 52% before the end of February and 59% before the end of March.
2️⃣ Risk of a U.S. government shutdown again
- After the federal agent shot a citizen in Minneapolis on 1/24, the Senate Democratic leader stated that they would not pass the budget bill if it included funding for the Department of Homeland Security.

The global cryptocurrency market quickly regained its green color after US President Donald Trump confirmed that Washington reached a long-term agreement with NATO regarding Greenland, while eliminating the possibility of implementing new tax levels expected to take effect from early February. This move is seen as a step to reduce macro pressure on risk assets.

Trump announced that the US and NATO are about to reach an agreement on Greenland

Vitalik Buterin - recently stated that he will refocus strongly on decentralized social media from 2026, seeing it as an important direction to improve the quality of mass communication on the Internet.

Vitalik Buterin: 2026 will be a turning point for decentralized social media
Vitalik Buterin's vision for mass communication
Theo Vitalik Buterin, a healthy society needs good mass communication tools that allow diverse streams of information to coexist and compete fairly. Vitalik believes that the core issue of social media today lies not only in the content but in the centralized structure, where user data, social graphs, and algorithms are all controlled by a few platforms.

Looking at the revenue by chain data over the last 30 days on DefiLlama, many well-known blockchains in the crypto market are experiencing revenue much lower than what the community has perceived.
The on-chain revenue of various L1/L2 ranges from a few thousand to several tens of thousands of USD each month, while the operational costs of the team are extremely high. The big question is: where does the funding for the project come from?

In less than a day, Trove Markets went from an ICO that garnered community attention to one of the most controversial cases in recent times. And the biggest issue is not the price crash, but the trust that was broken too quickly and decisively.
Below is the entire picture, simplified and easy to follow, based on what has happened.
1. Trove 'turns around' just 24 hours later, narrative collapses

Selling pressure spreads across the cryptocurrency market.
According to market data, Bitcoin fell more than 4% in 24 hours, from the 92,500 USD region down to around 88,700 USD on Tuesday evening US time. Ethereum also faced similar pressure, losing over 7% and retreating to around the 2,950 USD mark. The decline occurred quickly and sharply, reflecting a flight from risk assets as investors faced a series of macroeconomic uncertainties.

If you only look at the prices, it's hard to recognize the problem. But the latest macro data shows that the financial system is under clear pressure, especially in the funding market.

The Fed has just had to expand its balance sheet by more than 100 billion USD. The Standing Repo Facility is being used heavily, while the amount of MBS absorbed by the Fed is increasing faster than Treasury bonds. This is not a stimulus QE, but rather a liquidity injection to address stress when institutions are short on cash and the quality of collateral is declining.