K线人生飞哥

A self-introduction for my followers

Hello everyone, I am Fei Ge. I entered the crypto space in 2017, and I can be considered an old hand. Along the way, I have stepped into countless pitfalls, but I have also summarized some of my own methodologies. From blindly following trends at the beginning, I have gradually shifted my focus to studying cycles, macro trends, and capital logic, and I have slowly found my own rhythm.

As I journeyed, I found that the crypto world is not just about ups and downs; it is more like a cyclical game: some people FOMO during the highs, while others quietly position themselves during the lows.

Currently, I am a blogger on Binance Square, sharing some of my personal thoughts and observations. I am not a great expert, just an old hand who has experienced several bull and bear markets. I hope to share the pitfalls I have encountered and the lessons I have learned, so that newcomers can avoid unnecessary detours, and I can also gain new insights through exchange.

If you also believe in cycles, logic, and long-term accumulation, then perhaps we can become companions here.

Regarding the viewpoints in my posts, please note the following points:

1: The crypto market is constantly changing, and so will my viewpoints follow the market. This industry changes too quickly; only by continuously keeping up with the industry's progress can one continue to grow. Sticking rigidly to established norms will only lead to being eliminated by the times, so I hope everyone can be more open-minded.

2: The viewpoints I post on the Square are divided into short-term and long-term. For example, even if I am bullish in the long term, there will be pullbacks in between; similarly, even if I am bearish in the long term, there will also be rebounds in between. Please do not let short-term viewpoints affect long-term perspectives. An upward market does not mean it will rise continuously without looking back; more often, it is a trend of ups and downs. Similarly, a downward market does not mean it will crash without any rebounds; more often, it is a trend of falls and rises overall. I hope everyone can understand the differences between short-term and long-term viewpoints.

3: In this market, apart from BTC, which can be followed blindly, other coins have market cycles, especially altcoins. Before buying a coin, you should at least investigate it; some things need to be understood a bit, and you cannot just buy whatever others say. Especially for those with limited funds, you need to consider the actual situation and be more cautious.

Thank you to every friend who follows and supports me; you are the motivation for my continued sharing. May we all reap our own rewards in the cycles. 🌱

Looking back now, which altcoin do you regret buying the most?

The goal for 26 years is to find a true Ai agent token and continuously invest to reach the next bull market. Currently, there are several requirements: the entrepreneurial team should not lack funds, be technically savvy, and have a strong passion for web3 in order to incubate good products. After considering everything, VIRTUAL and TAO can be added to the watch list, while others are still being searched for. If you have any promising ones, feel free to leave a comment below 👇👇👇

The BSC chain can only surpass the SOL chain in one way
That is to let $币安人生 or $GIGGLE reach one billion
Only diamond hands will make money, which will bring prosperity to the chain
It will trigger a butterfly effect that continues this effect
The SOL chain originally created two specimens $WIF and BONK
Causing the SOL chain to thrive to this day
The leading effect is still very important

Many people believe that the bottom of this bear market is around 80,000 for the number $BTC , as the drop has been too significant and damaging to the market. However, I think if the bottom of this bear market for BTC is indeed 80,000, the accumulation period for institutions will be extended, and the market will fall into an endless cycle of fluctuations. Moreover, the potential for the next bull market will become smaller and smaller. The reason is simple: if the drop is too small, the potential is limited. The same logic applies to the current $ETH . If ETH could drop 95% in the 2022 bear market like it did in the 2018 bear market, then this bull market would have already seen ETH break 5,000. The market behaves like a spring: the lower it is pressed, the higher it rebounds.

So in order to allow the next bull market to continue with greater potential, it would be best for BTC to break 80,000, or even 70,000, as that would be the most comfortable scenario, and the same goes for ETH.

Take a look at the monthly trends of gold $XAU and silver $XAG . Currently, it is undoubtedly a raging bull market that you can't imagine. Let's look at it from another perspective: if you are outside the crypto world, given the strong money effect in the current peripheral financial markets and commodity markets, would you invest funds in the crypto market? I think the vast majority of people wouldn't, so this explains why the liquidity in the cryptocurrency market is so poor right now. Therefore, we can only wait for precious metals to peak, for the US stock market to peak, and then everyone will crash together. The next bull market will start from scratch. Anyway, the altcoin market in the crypto world has basically been messed up and needs to be rebuilt from the ground up.

Currently, the outcome in the perpdex track is already apparent, $HYPE is the absolute king, while $ASTER in a bear market does not need attention. I will focus on analyzing my expectations for the decline of HYPE and the bear market bottoming points.

First, looking at the weekly chart, in the downtrend view, you will find that the 9 line has already dropped to negative, which can be ignored as it is the result of a custom formula and is not very meaningful. The truly useful indicators are 7 and 8, corresponding to prices around 13.1 and 6.5, these two positions are in an extremely pessimistic range.

Looking further back at the second weekly inflection point, the downward target has actually been indicated, roughly around 19 and 14, these two positions are obvious phase support zones. Switching to the daily chart makes it even clearer, with short-term inflection points concentrated around 23.4 and 19.5, especially around the previously spiked 20. If it gets pierced again, absorbing a wave of panic and stop-loss orders, a rebound is very reasonable, as there is much liquidity below.

However, if the rebound completes without a trend reversal, we will need to look at the true bottom range. According to the daily structure, deeper targets for HYPE will basically be around 14 or even 12. This is the mid-term expectation for the 'bottom', and discussions about layout will be more meaningful there, with a better risk-reward ratio. In summary: there is a rebound demand around 20, this position can be used for short-term trades, while for long-term bottom fishing, we will look at the 14-12 range.
{future}(AVNTUSDT)

The New York Stock Exchange enters the tokenized securities market, announcing the development of a platform for tokenized securities trading and on-chain settlement, and will seek regulatory approval for this.
2026 will be the "Year of Accelerated Tokenized Stocks," with the market scale rapidly expanding from billions to hundreds of billions. Exemptions will further lower the threshold, and the process is also accelerating. The RWA sector is definitely the focus of speculation in the next bull market.
If the NYSE personally engages in the tokenization of US stocks, then basically the altcoin projects in the crypto space will have nothing to do with it. From this perspective, it is bearish for $ONDO . Currently, ONDO's price has once again hit a new low, and the selling pressure from recent unlocks is still ongoing. Of course, as the leader in the RWA sector in the crypto space, ONDO is still a buy from the speculation perspective in the next bull market. Its current market value is 1.6 billion, and I will still consider bottom-fishing if the market value falls below 1 billion.

Unless something unexpected happens, Trump is about to issue a third coin. The previous ones, $TRUMP and $WLFI , have both dropped significantly. The Trump family's crypto assets have appreciated by about $1.4 billion in the past year, with about one-fifth of their net worth in cryptocurrency. As I recall, after the Trump couple issued coins last year, the crypto market has not seen a resurgence of copycat trends. If Trump issues another coin, would you still buy it???

As for me, I definitely won't buy it. Even if it might rise, I won't buy it. The crypto market is currently being seen by Trump as a cash machine, crazily extracting liquidity. If this continues, this industry has no future.

$BTC has certain support in the range of 88000 to 90000, so I will take some profits on my short position first. This range has fluctuated repeatedly before, and then BTC surged to around 98000. During the previous rebound, it wasn't a single surge; the same logic applies to the current decline; it won't drop all at once. The key positions in between need to fluctuate repeatedly.

DUSK currently seems to have a second wave, but I do not plan to go long. As long as the price continues to rise, it provides an opportunity to short. Just look at the trend of $TNSR to understand the future trend of $DUSK . However, DUSK has a smaller market cap and is lighter. This kind of altcoin rising is giving you a chance to break even and short, not to chase long positions. Once you are trapped at a high position, it is likely that you will never be able to break even in your lifetime.

Currently, this industry has been falsified in two tracks
One is blockchain games, and the other is NFT
It is best not to hold the coins of these two tracks for the long term

Everyone has high hopes for you, but you are the least promising$ASTER

Previously, when CZ bought ASTER, the price rose to 1.2, and the market was overwhelmingly optimistic. I clearly saw it as bearish and shorted it. Currently, it seems fine; it later dropped to around 0.6, and I started to buy the dip expecting a rebound to 0.9. However, the market was too weak, and I closed my long position near my cost price.

Let's talk about the current basic situation of ASTER. The project team and VC's cost are too low, with an average price of 0.05u, which means selling now would still yield dozens of times profit.

Another question many people are concerned about is, why does the project team keep buying while the coin price continues to plummet? Simply put: the project team appears to be buying 1000u, but the VCs and the project team's interests sell out 10,000u in response. The buying is just for show to the investors, and they are selling in large quantities through various accounts to cash out, which is why the price keeps dropping.

Moreover, the current environment is a bear market. No matter how much money the project team spends to stabilize the market, it can only rise temporarily, and eventually, it will be pushed back down. Additionally, massive unlocks and selling will lead to a continually decreasing price.

No one has high hopes for you, yet you are the most resilient $BERA
I previously promoted this coin, Xiong Lian, in the square. Although this recent surge has increased by 50%, I must emphasize that the fundamentals of this coin have not changed. Essentially, it is considered a garbage VC coin by traditional standards. The recent surge is likely due to the large unlock on February 6th, providing an opportunity for project parties and investors to sell at a high price, so this coin should be considered for selling around early February.

$BTC broke through and chased a short position, currently it seems to be fine, so early this morning the idea given in the contract teaching channel was to chase the short after the break. I know that BTC is near the 98000 mark, which is a weekly resistance level. According to my idea, it should hover at a high level for a while before falling, but I didn't expect the market to be so weak that it just touched and then crashed down immediately. That's how a bear market works; we still need to earnestly manage risk and prepare for the next round of layout.

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Retail investors have exited the $XRP market, leaving only whale investors. The buying trend continues. The number of whales is quietly increasing.
The cryptocurrency market is also de-retailing, increasingly leaning towards institutional battles, which is an important feature of the stock market-like behavior in the crypto space. In the future, after institutions complete their accumulation during this round of the bear market with ETFs for coins like BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE, LTC, HBAR, LINK, and XRP, it will basically have no relation to retail investors anymore.

Talk about the market trend

Due to the news of Trump's tariff war and the significant reduction in expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, $BTC suddenly broke below the key support level of 94700, returning to the previous consolidation range.

The bottom of this range is 80,000, so if the second wave of sharp declines begins, we should first look at 80,000.

In the one and a half months prior, I repeatedly mentioned that before the real bear market's second wave of sharp declines, there would be a rebound to 98,000. On January 15, it reached 97,925, which is basically close enough.

Although it didn't reach a higher position, from the perspective of a major bear market, running a large portion to 98,000 is quite reasonable.

Unless this week BTC's weekly line strongly closes above 95,000, the second wave of declines in the bear market will be confirmed.

At that time, it will officially enter the track of value investment, and there will be no need to analyze medium and short-term techniques anymore.

The bottom is still near the miners' shutdown price, which is around the range of 55,000 to 60,000. If we insist on a rigid approach, based on the ratios from 2022, in extreme cases, it could drop to around 48,000, but I think the likelihood is low.

Considering that many governments and numerous treasury companies are hoarding Bitcoin, having 60,000 to 70,000 as the bottom seems reasonable.

AHR999 has never failed, at most showing some stagnation at the bottom.

When AHR999 drops to 0.45, I will go all in to buy at the bottom.

I mentioned yesterday that $DUSK has risen close to 10 times from the bottom, looking at the trend of $TNSR , it's just a matter of shorting in batches, and from this trading method, I feel it's a dog dealer. Currently, shorting DUSK still seems reasonable, but the funding rate is too high, it's like working for CZ 🥲