High Probability of Bank of Japan Interest Rate Hike in December
According to data cited by BlockBeats, market expectations strongly favor a tightening move by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) at its upcoming policy meeting. Polymarket data indicates a 98% probability of a 25 basis point interest rate hike in December, while the probability of the BoJ maintaining its current policy rate is estimated at 2%.
Publicly available information shows that the Bank of Japan is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on December 19. The anticipated move reflects growing market confidence that the BoJ may further adjust its ultra-loose monetary stance amid evolving domestic inflation dynamics and global monetary policy shifts.
Market participants are closely monitoring the decision, as any policy adjustment by the BoJ could have notable implications for the Japanese yen, regional equity markets, global bond yields, and risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin Options Worth $23.8 Billion Set to Expire on December 26
According to ChainCatcher, on-chain data analyst Murphy reports that Bitcoin options with a total nominal value of approximately $23.8 billion are scheduled to expire on December 26. The expiring contracts include quarterly options, annual options, and a large volume of structured products, making this one of the most significant BTC options expiries of the year.
Market participants expect this event to trigger a concentrated clearing and repricing of risk exposure across the Bitcoin derivatives market toward year-end. While BTC prices may remain structurally constrained ahead of the expiration.
Key Open Interest Levels Data shows a notable concentration of open interest (OI) around the current BTC spot price at two critical strike levels:
$85,000 Put Option: 14,674 BTC
$100,000 Call Option: 18,116 BTC
This positioning is not characteristic of retail trading behavior. Instead, it is widely attributed to large, long-term institutional participants, including ETF hedging strategies, BTC treasury-holding companies, and major family offices with substantial Bitcoin exposure.
Market Implications The strong demand for the $85,000 put options highlights proactive downside risk hedging, signaling that buyers are prioritizing protection at this level. Meanwhile, the heavy call open interest at $100,000 does not necessarily reflect bullish sentiment. Rather, it suggests that long-term holders are willing to cap upside potential in exchange for stable cash flow and controlled risk, often through structured option strategies.
By buying lower-strike puts and selling higher-strike calls, these participants compress BTC’s return distribution into a defined range. As a result, the $85,000–$100,000 options corridor is expected to exert a structural influence on Bitcoin’s price behavior ahead of December 26, characterized by: Implicit resistance above $100,000 Passive downside support near $85,000 Range-bound price fluctuations in between #BTC #ETFs