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Several Crypto Verified Authors recently engaged in a focused discussion on Bitcoin’s decline from the 126K peak. The central question was whether the move was driven mainly by long-term holder (LTH) distribution or short-term holder (STH) capitulation. 1. STH capitulation dominated the sharpest declines STH SOPR repeatedly fell below 1, confirming active loss-taking. Spent Output Age Bands showed that coins younger than three months represented most of the spent volume during the dump, indicating that STH behavior had the strongest immediate impact on price. 2. LTH selling increased, but remains typical for a bull-market phase Metrics such as CDD, Realized Profit, and LTH Net Position Change indicate higher LTH distribution since September. However, the pattern is consistent with normal mid-cycle profit-taking, not the aggressive “blow-off” distribution seen at cycle tops. 3. Marginal price pressure came from STH deleveraging and forced selling Even if LTHs sold more in total over months, markets react to marginal flows during stress. On dump days, leveraged STHs triggered rapid sell-offs and liquidations, creating the steepest downward momentum. 4. Rising Realized Cap signals continued fresh inflows Despite declining prices, Realized Cap moved higher, meaning new STH capital was still entering. These inflows, however, were not strong enough to absorb the capitulation of older STH cohorts combined with ongoing LTH distribution. 【Conclusion】 While LTH distribution formed the background, the decisive force behind the sharp move from 126K was STH capitulation and deleveraging. On-chain structure suggests a bull-market correction, not a cycle-top reversal.
$ETH currently in a consolidation phase, signaling a critical moment for traders and long-term investors alike. After recent market volatility, ETH has been trading within a tight range, showing reduced price swings as buyers and sellers battle for short-term direction. This consolidation is often a precursor to a stronger breakout, making this period especially important for anyone watching Ethereum’s next major move.
For now, market sentiment leans cautiously bullish, with traders closely monitoring key support and resistance zones. Consolidation typically reflects market confidence, suggesting that investors are accumulating rather than exiting positions. If momentum builds, ETH could set up for a significant upward push as broader crypto sentiment improves.
This is exactly the kind of moment where patience pays. Staying updated with accurate market insights gives traders an advantage when the breakout finally happens. Follow for timely analysis, reliable updates, and smart opportunities in the evolving Ethereum market.
Owen Gunden: The Bitcoin OG Whale Sending Signals the Market Cannot Ignore. $BTC
Owen Gunden, one of Bitcoin’s earliest and largest whales, has moved thousands of BTC to exchanges in recent days, totaling over $700 million. Historically a long-term holder, these movements have drawn attention from traders as potential signals of short-term market shifts. While exchange inflows often suggest selling pressure, they may also reflect portfolio repositioning or strategic planning rather than an immediate dump. For traders, this creates both volatility and opportunity, especially as Bitcoin approaches its projected Q1 2026 breakout around $126K. Observing whale activity carefully can provide insights, but discipline and risk management remain essential in navigating these moves. #MarketPullback #cryptoOG