#ETHBreaks3700 🔥ETH 4.3% Violent Surge! Contract Shorts Flee, Value Anchor Point 2968 Becomes Key Pullback Level, Miss It and Wait for Half a Year?
ETH 24h up 4.3%, but open interest increased by 8.8% and the long-short ratio dropped sharply to 2.5, volume-price divergence suggests short-term chasing risk; current price 3747 is only 2% from the upper Bollinger band 3821, if it pulls back to LVN 3723-3726 without breaking can go long with a stop loss at 3700, targeting HVN 3762/3800, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.3; if it breaks below 3700, then shorts extend to POC 2968, cautious FOMO.
Key Range Structure
1. Value Anchoring: POC 2968 (1.84 million ETH traded, UpVol 61%), is the mid-term bullish bottom line.
2. High Volume Area: HVN-1 3584-3602 (970,000 ETH, UpVol 46%) constitutes the first resistance above; HVN-2 2950-2985 (three consecutive HVNs, UpVol 55%) serves as pullback support.
3. Low Volume Gap: LVN-1 3723-3726 (300,000 ETH gap) serves as the short-term bull-bear dividing line; LVN-2 3813-3830 (120,000 ETH) is the breakout acceleration zone.
4. 70% Volume Coverage: 2457-3760, current price close to the upper edge, in mild overbought territory.
Momentum Verification
• 3723-3726 LVN zone has seen the last 3 1h candles with UpVol 65%, if it pulls back with reduced volume and does not break, it is seen as bullish consolidation.
• 3762-3821 LVN zone has UpVol of only 52%, a breakout requires volume ≥ 1.5 times the average of the last 20 candles to chase long.
• Open interest increased by 8.8% in 24h but long-short ratio down 18%, funding rate 0.01%, short covering driving, beware of pullbacks.
Auxiliary Indicators
• Price > MA200 13.6%, bullish trend; Bollinger Bands narrowing, upper band 3821 suppressing.
• Spot net inflow +35k ETH/24h, contract net outflow -134k ETH, capital divergence.
Market Cycle
Mid-term still in the third wave extension of a bull market, short-term entering a high position consolidation, waiting for a pullback to confirm the value area.
Trading Strategy
Aggressive: Pullback to 3723-3726, enter on 1h volume candle closing bullish, stop loss at 3700 (-0.6%), target 3762/3800, risk-reward ratio 2.3.
Conservative: Wait for a 15m level break below 3700 then short on a retracement to 3710-3715, stop loss at 3730, target 3650, risk-reward ratio 2.1.
Cautious: If there is a volume breakout above 3820 and UpVol > 60%, chase long to 3880-3900, stop loss at 3800, risk-reward ratio 2.0.
Risk Warning
• Key level 3700 breaking down will trigger bullish liquidation, next support 3650/POC 2968.
• Macroeconomic events or fluctuations in US stocks may amplify gaps, avoid low liquidity periods.
• Single position ≤1% of account equity, use ATR dynamic stop loss.
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