After reaching a new all-time high of $125,000, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is now experiencing significant pressure, sharply dropping to the range of $107,000 and even briefly testing a strong support area at $101,000. Market sentiment is beginning to change — from the euphoria of 'to the moon' to a phase of fear and uncertainty.
Many traders ask: Is this just a healthy correction before BTC rises again? Or is it a sign that the peak of the bull cycle has already been reached?
This article dissects the latest Bitcoin market conditions from the perspectives of fundamentals, liquidity, geopolitics, and market psychology to understand whether prices can recover — or will continue to weaken before forming the next bullish structure.
From Euphoria to Reality: Why is Bitcoin Starting to Correct?
After breaking the psychological level of $100,000 in the first quarter of 2025, Bitcoin entered an extreme FOMO phase (Fear of Missing Out). Retail and institutional investors rushed in, accelerating the rally to $125,000 in a short time. However, when too many long positions opened at the top, the market became a 'liquidation heavy zone' — where liquidity below the price accumulated and was ready to be taken.
The sharp drop to $101,000 is not a coincidence, but a result of massive liquidation of high leverage positions. Data from Coinglass shows that more than $1.8 billion in long positions were liquidated within just 48 hours. This indicates that the selling pressure mainly comes from leverage unwind, not sudden fundamental changes.
In other words, the market needs to 'cleanse' leverage before it can continue a healthy upward trend.
Geopolitical Factors: Trump vs Xi and Its Impact on Global Liquidity
The latest tension between the United States and China is back in the spotlight for the global market. Since the beginning of the second Trump administration, trade tensions and protectionist policies have increased, particularly in the technology and crypto sectors.
Trump is known to promote the 'America First Crypto Policy', strengthening the US position as a blockchain innovation hub. However, this also creates a domino effect — China retaliates with tight monetary policy, pulling liquidity from the Asian market.
For Bitcoin, this tension creates two main effects:
Global liquidity is shrinking, as large institutional investors hold back cross-border capital flows.
Risk appetite is decreasing, making investors more cautious and likely to secure profits from high-risk assets such as crypto.
The result? The liquidity that previously supported the rise of BTC is starting to dry up — and the market is losing short-term momentum.
Technical Structure: $100K Support Becomes Crucial Level
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is still in a macro bullish structure, but medium-term correction signals are starting to become clear.
Main support: $100,000 – $101,000
Nearest resistance: $112,000 – $115,000
Further support: $96,000
If BTC fails to maintain the $100K area, the potential for a drop to the $95K–$96K zone is wide open. This area is a 'high liquidity zone' where many retail traders' stop-loss orders are stacked. Typically, smart money will push prices to this area to take liquidity before continuing the upward trend.
However, as long as BTC does not break below $95K cleanly, the long-term bullish structure remains valid. Corrections like this could actually become a 'reaccumulation phase' before Bitcoin attempts to reach new all-time highs.
Market Sentiment: From FOMO to Fear
Before the major drop, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index briefly touched the 'Extreme Greed' level at 91 — indicating excessive euphoria. Now, the index has dropped back to the range of 48–52, or 'Neutral Zone'
This indicates that the market is waiting for the next direction — not optimistic enough to buy aggressively, but also not fearful enough to sell everything. Typically, phases like this often become accumulation opportunities for long-term investors.
Is Recovery Still Possible?
Although this correction feels brutal, several factors indicate that recovery opportunities are still open:
a. ETF Inflows Remain Positive
Funds flowing into Bitcoin spot ETFs are still positive, although slowing down. The latest data shows an inflow of about $420 million in the last week — a sign that institutions are still buying at discounted prices.
b. Supply on Exchanges Decreases
The number of Bitcoins on exchanges has dropped to a 4-year low. This means many holders are moving BTC to personal wallets — a sign that long-term confidence remains high.
c. On-chain Metrics Remain Healthy
The Long-Term Holder SOPR ratio remains below 1.0, meaning long-term investors are not selling above their purchase price — a signal that there is no major panic selling.
Future Scenario: Two Major Possibilities
Bullish Case:
If BTC can hold above $100K and buying volume increases around $107K–$112K, we could see a rebound towards $120K in the coming weeks. Catalysts such as liquidity easing, new ETF inflows, or positive news from the US regulatory sector could accelerate this recovery.
Bearish Case:
However, if macro pressures become stronger — for instance, escalation of the US–China economic conflict or a surge in US bond yields — Bitcoin could drop further to the $95K–$96K area before stabilizing. In an extreme scenario, a breakdown below $90K would validate the macro double-top pattern, signaling potential deeper declines.
Strategies for Traders and Investors
Short-term traders: Focus on liquidity areas. Buy the dip around $100K only if confirmation volume appears.
Long-term investors: Use DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) strategy below $110K. Major corrections often present the best opportunities for accumulation.
Pay attention to macro narratives: Monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and movements of the US dollar will greatly influence market direction.
Conclusion: Between Fear and Opportunity
The correction from $125,000 to $101,000 may feel sharp, but in the context of the macro bull run of Bitcoin, this is not new. History shows that every major Bitcoin cycle is always accompanied by a correction of 20–30% before reaching a new peak.
However, with global liquidity still fragile and rising geopolitical tensions, traders must be cautious. The market is not ready for 'another leg up' aggressively — but this does not mean the bull run story is over.
For patient investors, phases like this become the best moment to reset strategies, avoid excessive leverage, and prepare for the potential next leg of Bitcoin towards a new record after this consolidation phase ends.
Disclaimer:
This article is prepared for educational and general informational purposes, not financial advice or investment recommendations. The crypto market is highly volatile and carries high risks. Always conduct your own research (Do Your Own Research – DYOR) before making investment decisions.