Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit on Friday the Lower Highs trend-line that started on its October 06 2025 All Time High (ATH) and so far it has been rejected. As long as it stays below its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), the Bear Cycle remains valid and in fact amasses more and more similarities with the 2022 one.
The strongest of those is that it is currently in a Bear Flag pattern (Channel Up) that is not only similar to the Nov 2025 - Jan 2026 but also identical to those of 2022 (Jan-March and June-Aug). Both below their respective 1D MA200 and Lower Highs trend-lines. At the same time, the 1W RSI is on a similar post oversold rebound as August 15 2022.
As a result, the longer the 1D MA200 holds as a cyclical Resistance, the more likely it is for BTC to initiate a new Bearish Leg to a Lower Low. So far the previous two have been highly symmetrical dropping by -36.18% and -38.58% respectively. Therefore another -36.18% decline would test exactly the $50000 psychological mark, which by most analyses and technical models, is the start of the Cycle's bottom zone.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!