Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading on a 4H Channel Up since the February 06 Low which on the 1D time-frame though is the 3rd of a series of similar patterns. The November 2025 - January 2026 one turned out to be a Bear Flag, the first of the Bear Cycle that started since the October 06 2025 All Time High (ATH).
Having already broken above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is where it got rejected on January 14 2026, BTC sees now the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as the next Resistance, which is key, as all previous Bear Cycles tested it (and got rejected).
The presence of RSI Lower Highs both on the 1D and 4H charts, should make us skeptical. On 4H and the even shorter Channel Up (blue) that was initiated after the March 30 Low, the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) is what's holding the pattern from a correction below the 0.236 Channel Fibonacci level. Critical days for the Cycle as a whole ahead of us.
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