On a macro level, the latest CME 'FedWatch' data shows that the market's bets on a rate cut in December have significantly cooled, with only 44.4% believing there will be a 25 basis point cut, while 55.6% expect the Fed to take no action for now. Looking ahead to January next year, the pace of rate cuts remains mild: the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 48.6%, while the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut is only 16.7%.

Meanwhile, the market attributes of Bitcoin are undergoing intriguing changes. The Kobeissi Letter points out that the correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks is rising — its 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has reached as high as 0.80, setting a new record since 2022. From a broader perspective, the correlation over the past five years has further risen to 0.54, while its relationship with cash and gold is nearly zero. This trend also means that Bitcoin's trading style is increasingly resembling that of 'high-leverage tech assets.'

Institutions continue to increase their positions. 13F filings from U.S. universities reveal the latest dynamics: Brown University holds approximately 13.8 million dollars in IBIT; Emory University increased its holdings to 1,023,417 shares of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and holds 4,450 shares of iShares Bitcoin Trust; Harvard University’s actions are the most eye-catching, with its IBIT holdings soaring by 257% to 6.81 million shares in three months, with a total market value reaching 442.8 million dollars. At the same time, Harvard has also significantly increased its holdings in GLD gold ETF, nearly doubling.

While institutional movements have drawn attention, Michael Saylor also updated Bitcoin-related tracking data again. Past experience shows that Strategy companies usually disclose increased holdings the day after news is released, and the market remains highly sensitive to this.

On the other hand, BitMine chairman Tom Lee reviewed Bitcoin's long-term performance, pointing out that since its initial recommendation in 2017 (when the price was only 1,000 dollars), Bitcoin has increased by 100 times. During this period, it has experienced multiple rounds of significant volatility, including 6 dips of over 50% and 3 drops of over 75%. He emphasized that the reason investors can navigate super cycles is due to holding for a sufficiently long time rather than chasing prices. He also believes that ETH is entering a similar cycle, but the upward path will inevitably be accompanied by fluctuations.

There are also significant developments in the Ethereum ecosystem. Bit Digital released its third-quarter financial report, with revenue reaching 30.5 million dollars, a year-on-year increase of 33%; among which ETH staking income surged by 542% to 29 million dollars. As of the end of October, the company held a total of 153,547 ETH, with a market value of approximately 590.5 million dollars, having added 31,057 ETH just in October.

However, short-term market pressure is still accumulating. 10x Research pointed out that ETH has fallen below short-term and medium-term moving averages, retreating 6.6% over the past week. In addition, ETH ETF recorded a net outflow of over 1.4 billion dollars, with the 3-10 year holding group accelerating sales, creating significant selling pressure. However, it is worth noting that several whales are buying against the trend, with total purchases exceeding 1 billion dollars.

According to Token Unlocks data, this week ZRO, YZY, ZK, and others will face a large one-time token unlock, among which:

ZKsync (ZK) will unlock approximately 173 million tokens at 4 PM on November 17, with a ratio of 3.37% to the current circulation, valued at about 9 million dollars;

ApeCoin (APE) will unlock approximately 15.6 million tokens at 8:30 PM on November 17, with a ratio of 1.66% to the current circulation, valued at about 5.5 million dollars;

YZY (YZY) will unlock approximately 37.5 million tokens at 1 PM on November 19, with a ratio of 12.50% to the current circulation, valued at about 14.1 million dollars;

LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock approximately 25.71 million tokens at 7 PM on November 20, with a ratio of 7.29% to the current circulation, valued at about 38.3 million dollars.

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin's turnover rate significantly rebounded yesterday, mainly concentrated on low buy orders near 95,000 dollars; meanwhile, the previously trapped chips did not show collective selling, and overall sentiment remains mild.

According to URPD data, the range of 104,500-111,000 dollars has accumulated 2.249 million Bitcoins; the range of 93,500-98,500 dollars has accumulated 1.386 million Bitcoins.

In summary, Bitcoin fell to a daily low of 93,000 dollars and is currently fluctuating around 95,700 dollars. From a cyclical perspective, the market is gradually approaching a potential opportunity zone. In the next 1-2 months, Bitcoin may maintain a weak fluctuation, and a drop to around 80,000 dollars cannot be ruled out. Once this area is reached, it may become a key window for the next round of medium to long-term arrangements. This round of adjustment resembles a phase of consolidation rather than a bear market.#比特币走势分析